My Election Map Prediction

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Lexew1899
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My Election Map Prediction

Post by Lexew1899 »

Image
http://bit.ly/2eJuvX8" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The biggest wild card I see is Pennsylvania, although I think Trump might hold a very razor thin edge, because I believe democrats are being over sampled. Either way it wont matter if he losses Pennsylvania, if he wins Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, etc. I think the election will either go Trump or Clinton very early in the night. It will be clear who the winner is depending on who takes these states. Odds in my opinion are Trump 70%, Clinton 30%.

If anyone else would like to post their Election Map Prediction please post them here, thanks!
Here is the link to the map creator tool: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... t_map.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Joel
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Re: My Election Map Prediction

Post by Joel »

Image

I would enjoy seeing how people would react to this situation :))

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Lexew1899
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Re: My Election Map Prediction

Post by Lexew1899 »

That actually isn't that far out of being possible either. Haha

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Joel
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Re: My Election Map Prediction

Post by Joel »

I really am unsure how it will turn out.

I wonder how people would react if Clinton wins the popular vote but Trump wins the electoral vote like what happened with Bush/Gore in 2000?

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Col. Flagg
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Re: My Election Map Prediction

Post by Col. Flagg »

Right wing FOX News has the Hildabeast at 283, Trump 192 as of today...

http://www.270towin.com/maps/fox-news-electoral-map" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Lexew1899
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Re: My Election Map Prediction

Post by Lexew1899 »

Going only off of current polls, I think it is possible that this election may mirror the 2000 election, where the only state that really mattered in the end was Florida. GWB ended up winning 271 - Gore 266.

Here is a map of ALL states ONLY with their current RCP average selected, minus Florida...
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Clinton is a mere 2 points from 270, but she has no other path to 270 minus Florida. If she wins Florida, here are the numbers...
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The current RCP average in Florida puts Clinton at a mere 1 point lead, well within margin of error status. Trump and Clinton have gone back and forth, and the race has been neck and neck for the last month. It is too close to call either way.
Image

If all other states go their RCP average, and Trump is able to take Florida, here is the result...
Image

Might be all about Florida, Florida, Florida again.
Map made via RCP: http://bit.ly/2f797y2" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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AI2.0
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Re: My Election Map Prediction

Post by AI2.0 »

I predict it's not going to be that close a race and Trump isn't going to win.


I predict Clinton will win--she needs 270 and I think she'll likely get close to or over 300 electoral college votes.

We only have to wait a couple of days to find out; I don't know about you all, but I'm so ready for this election to be over, it has been such a disappointment. I wanted to see Clinton taken down and the Clinton's political power diminished, but Trump didn't deliver. His supporters said he was going to destroy Clinton but I was very underwhelmed by his debating skills and his campaigning skills--he was never methodical about making a case against her, he relied on rhetoric like 'crooked hillary', thinking that was enough. It worked fine for ginning up those he already had in his camp, but it did nothing to make others consider WHY she would be such a terrible choice. Trump never took the debates seriously and it showed. Too much of his time was wasted not listening to people who could have helped him sway voters, he didn't seem to think he needed voters! I don't know how he thought an election would be won if you refuse to make an effort to persuade voters to your side.

If Clinton wins, I can't go along with those who think the election was 'rigged' because it wasn't. At this point, I can see that Trump was just not up to the task.

This election should have been close(I don't think it is that close, I think the media hype it up to keep the ratings high--this means more money and influence for them--I will see if I'm right when the election results are in.

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Lexew1899
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Re: My Election Map Prediction

Post by Lexew1899 »

Yeah I am ready for it to be all over. I am considering leaving the church over it to be honest since a few people in my ward repeatedly compared me to a Nazi for supporting Trump. And I am actually pretty gentle in talking about politics on Facebook, and hardly do at all to be honest. I prefer to debate it with people on a forum like this where people enjoy engaging in such things. Also double that with the fact that my ward was kicked out of our stake for not being "prosperous" we aren't financially as strong as the rest of the stake, and they don't like the fact we have a lot of Tongans in our ward.

Oh well, I might be getting a job where I have to work Sundays. Might do me good to get away from Mormons, since they seem to hate me so much anyway. I guess I'll goose step my way into the sunset.

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AI2.0
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Re: My Election Map Prediction

Post by AI2.0 »

Lexew1899 wrote:Yeah I am ready for it to be all over. I am considering leaving the church over it to be honest since a few people in my ward repeatedly compared me to a Nazi for supporting Trump. And I am actually pretty gentle in talking about politics on Facebook, and hardly do at all to be honest. I prefer to debate it with people on a forum like this where people enjoy engaging in such things. Also double that with the fact that my ward was kicked out of our stake for not being "prosperous" we aren't financially as strong as the rest of the stake, and they don't like the fact we have a lot of Tongans in our ward.

Oh well, I might be getting a job where I have to work Sundays. Might do me good to get away from Mormons, since they seem to hate me so much anyway. I guess I'll goose step my way into the sunset.
Did the church suddenly become false because some members of your ward are jerks? Because that's the only reason I can see for quitting the LDS church--because you find that it is not true. And, if you have a testimony of the gospel of Jesus Christ, I would hope you will do your best to follow the admonition of the Savior and 'meet together oft' with other saints and partake of the sacrament each Sabbath--in other words, try very hard NOT to get a job that requires you to miss your church meetings.

As for being 'kicked out' of your stake, I've not heard of this happening. Do you mean that they made boundary changes? That does happen and you can attribute nefarious reasons for it, if you like, but it probably doesn't have anything to do with not liking Tongans or people not having enough money. I'm sorry Lexew1899, but it sounds like you've got a big time chip on your shoulder and you need to be careful that you don't quit church because your pride has been hurt. :(

This election will be over on Wednesday and we need to not let it ruin the rest of our lives--so hang in there!!!

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Lexew1899
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Re: My Election Map Prediction

Post by Lexew1899 »

Following the Savior is really the only reason worth going to church for me. But I agree, glad the election will all be over soon.

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Joel
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Re: My Election Map Prediction

Post by Joel »

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Joel wrote:I wonder how people would react if Clinton wins the popular vote but Trump wins the electoral vote like what happened with Bush/Gore in 2000?
Having the popular vote but losing the electoral twice now, what do you think Democrats will try to do to the electoral college, if anything?

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Lexew1899
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Re: My Election Map Prediction

Post by Lexew1899 »

If it goes popular vote I would predict the GOP could still win. That is because a lot of the vote in areas like California and New York is suppressed because of the fact that they know they won't be able to flip the state. It looks like she might win the popular vote by 200,000 votes or so. That would be easily overcomed by more people coming out in those states. Might even push a larger majority in the House for the GOP with an invigorated vote. But I doubt it will change any time soon considering Trump will likely be able to hold on for 8 years.

ebenezerarise
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Re: My Election Map Prediction

Post by ebenezerarise »

Your original map wasn't far off....

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Lexew1899
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Re: My Election Map Prediction

Post by Lexew1899 »

Yeah, was off on Rust Belt and Mountain West, but I think I out predicted the news media pretty well.

ebenezerarise
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Re: My Election Map Prediction

Post by ebenezerarise »

Definitely.

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Lexew1899
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Re: My Election Map Prediction

Post by Lexew1899 »

Image

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Lexew1899
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Re: My Election Map Prediction

Post by Lexew1899 »

This is shocking. Trump 2016 vs Obama 2012, Trump would win.
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/44 ... obama-2012" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Silver
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Re: My Election Map Prediction

Post by Silver »

Lexew1899 wrote:Yeah I am ready for it to be all over. I am considering leaving the church over it to be honest since a few people in my ward repeatedly compared me to a Nazi for supporting Trump. And I am actually pretty gentle in talking about politics on Facebook, and hardly do at all to be honest. I prefer to debate it with people on a forum like this where people enjoy engaging in such things. Also double that with the fact that my ward was kicked out of our stake for not being "prosperous" we aren't financially as strong as the rest of the stake, and they don't like the fact we have a lot of Tongans in our ward.

Oh well, I might be getting a job where I have to work Sundays. Might do me good to get away from Mormons, since they seem to hate me so much anyway. I guess I'll goose step my way into the sunset.
Just saw this...
I am extremely sorry that some of the members of the ward treated you so poorly. That is definitely not in keeping with the Golden Rule. In the future, if annybody bugs you about your position, please think about the quote from Ezra Taft Benson in my signature. It doesn't matter if you're popular. The important thing is to have the truth.

As for the Tongans, if I'm in a fight, I want a bunch of those guys on my side.

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