Self Reliance on LDS.org today - How the emphasis has changed over the years

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Tree
captain of 100
Posts: 164

Re: Self Reliance on LDS.org today - How the emphasis has changed over the years

Post by Tree »

Many members believe the Church will be there to help them, I know for a fact that the Church does not have the material resources to do so. These members then believe that their local Church leadership will provide the necessary physical needs - won't happen. Then, they believe that their neighbors will help - how can that happen when they are in the same boat (never engaged in storing every needful thing)? Next, they reason and say it is alright to steal from their neighbors and then attend the next Sacrament to renew their covenants and be forgiven for stealing and start the cycle all over again at the beginning of the week. They next pray for Manna as in Moses' time.

Neighbor against neighbor, man against man, woman against woman

Then, the cry "Oh the Humanity"

brianj
captain of 1,000
Posts: 4066
Location: Vineyard, Utah

Re: Self Reliance on LDS.org today - How the emphasis has changed over the years

Post by brianj »

Tree wrote: October 30th, 2017, 8:29 pm Many members believe the Church will be there to help them, I know for a fact that the Church does not have the material resources to do so. These members then believe that their local Church leadership will provide the necessary physical needs - won't happen. Then, they believe that their neighbors will help - how can that happen when they are in the same boat (never engaged in storing every needful thing)? Next, they reason and say it is alright to steal from their neighbors and then attend the next Sacrament to renew their covenants and be forgiven for stealing and start the cycle all over again at the beginning of the week. They next pray for Manna as in Moses' time.

Neighbor against neighbor, man against man, woman against woman

Then, the cry "Oh the Humanity"
I have known people to angrily call local priesthood leaders and upbraid them because they aren't getting the help they expected or think they deserve to load or unload a moving truck. A sense of entitlement has grown very large among church members, and this will only lead to trouble.

Michelle
captain of 1,000
Posts: 1795

Re: Self Reliance on LDS.org today - How the emphasis has changed over the years

Post by Michelle »

gclayjr wrote: October 30th, 2017, 2:02 pm gardener4life,

That is kind of the genesis of this thread. It used to be that they told us that we should grow gardens and can (bottle) food, even if it was cheaper to just buy it, because having those skills of self reliance was important. Now it looks like they are focusing, on education, budgeting and job skills.

Is this a change in direction and focus? As I recall, the original recommendation to become self reliant was over 80 years ago during the great depression. This is definitely one of those laws, while eternal, are implemented differently in different epochs. Have things changed that much in 80 years?

I have not heard any direction from the brotheren to give up gardening, canning, or 72 hour kits. I have just noticed a subtle (or maybe not so subtle shift) along with an admonition not to go crazy in things like preparedness.

Regards,

George Clay
I really want to go back and address this.

The question seems to be, "Things have changed. So what has changed and do we need to follow the "old advice?"

Starting with what has changed: Social norms and demographics.

I think most people understand what the baby boom was. Between 1946 and 1964 a larger number of babies were born. That same population is now reaching the ages of mortality with the oldest group 71 this year. Their death rates, like their birth rates, will happen faster than average and will peak from 2019 for the oldest males and 2045 for the youngest females. They may die faster if there was something to increase mortality rates like a pandemic or something, but these years represent what we would expect if things go as they are now. (I personally expect that in the coming years society will also begin to "encourage" this older generation to use "physician aid in dying" to mitigate some of the economic stresses. A horrible topic for another post maybe.)

Overlap that with the economic, and more importantly social changes of recent years. Birth rates are in sharp decline with no sign of picking back up. In a normal economic cycle, they would drop when money gets tight and rebound when the economy picks back up. In the US we had a slight increase in 2013, but that quickly resumed its downward trend. This drop seems to be more social in nature. Which fits with the warning given in The Family: A Proclamation to the World:
Further, we warn that the disintegration of the family will bring upon individuals, communities, and nations the calamities foretold by ancient and modern prophets.
We currently have a growing population, but the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths has never been closer (currently only 1.3 million.) This means that in the near future the two numbers will converge. Immigration is currently assisting our population, but since the rest of the world is on the same track (some farther ahead, some farther behind) that won't last long.

This will lead to population decline. The UN within the last 10 years use to speak of population peak and decline (with an estimate of around 2050). They have stopped. But the reality is that that date has moved closer, not farther away. I think it currently resides in the range of 2031-2049. If current trends continue that date moves to the earlier side.

So: short term, we need to have more "self reliance" and even wealth so that that smaller working population can support the very young and very old. Long term, however, we still need the manual skills of former generations.

The catch is Artificial Intelligence. If the missing workers are replaced by tech, the effects will be mitigated. However, the trade off, in terms of freedom, will not be palatable to many. Those people will have to decide how much tech to continue to use as tools and how to avoid tech as a trap.

When that decision is made, I think you will see the Zion that is looked forward to emerge. It will be the separation of those willing to worship the "beast" to survive and those not willing to take the mark to buy and sell. Living the United Order fully, there could be no line by line exchange of goods that resembled buying and selling. It would have to be a full consecration and bestowing of stewardship to avoid the penalty of buying and selling without the mark of the beast.

If I remember correctly, 2029 is the year that 20% of the US population will be 65 or older. The financial self reliance the Church is emphasizing right now needs to be fully in place by that point for the working population to have any chance to help all those (older and younger) who are not working. But again, that will be a short term solution. The benefits of what is learned by that, however, will carry forward into the next phase of using more manual skills for survival.

JuneBug12000
captain of 1,000
Posts: 2066

Re: Self Reliance on LDS.org today - How the emphasis has changed over the years

Post by JuneBug12000 »

Reading old posts is something else. May 2023 updates in green. Demographics are more reliable than guesses alone.
Michelle wrote: October 31st, 2017, 7:51 am
gclayjr wrote: October 30th, 2017, 2:02 pm gardener4life,

That is kind of the genesis of this thread. It used to be that they told us that we should grow gardens and can (bottle) food, even if it was cheaper to just buy it, because having those skills of self reliance was important. Now it looks like they are focusing, on education, budgeting and job skills.

Is this a change in direction and focus? As I recall, the original recommendation to become self reliant was over 80 years ago during the great depression. This is definitely one of those laws, while eternal, are implemented differently in different epochs. Have things changed that much in 80 years?

I have not heard any direction from the brotheren to give up gardening, canning, or 72 hour kits. I have just noticed a subtle (or maybe not so subtle shift) along with an admonition not to go crazy in things like preparedness.

Regards,

George Clay
I really want to go back and address this.

The question seems to be, "Things have changed. So what has changed and do we need to follow the "old advice?"

Starting with what has changed: Social norms and demographics.

I think most people understand what the baby boom was. Between 1946 and 1964 a larger number of babies were born. That same population is now reaching the ages of mortality with the oldest group 71 this year. Their death rates, like their birth rates, will happen faster than average and will peak from 2019 for the oldest males and 2045 for the youngest females. They may die faster if there was something to increase mortality rates like a pandemic or something, but these years represent what we would expect if things go as they are now.(May 2023 update. Spoiler alert: the gov knew the same thing I did and and used 2020 to their benefit. They even used a fake pandemic to cover the predicted increase in deaths.) (I personally expect that in the coming years society will also begin to "encourage" this older generation to use "physician aid in dying" to mitigate some of the economic stresses. A horrible topic for another post maybe.) (May 2023 update: Canada and the EU aren't even hiding their euthanasia programs anymore. The USA still does, a little, but they are becoming visible to the mainstream. COVID Vax anybody?)

Overlap that with the economic, and more importantly social changes of recent years. Birth rates are in sharp decline with no sign of picking back up. In a normal economic cycle, they would drop when money gets tight and rebound when the economy picks back up. In the US we had a slight increase in 2013, but that quickly resumed its downward trend. This drop seems to be more social in nature. Which fits with the warning given in The Family: A Proclamation to the World:
Further, we warn that the disintegration of the family will bring upon individuals, communities, and nations the calamities foretold by ancient and modern prophets.
We currently have a growing population, but the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths has never been closer (currently only 1.3 million.) This means that in the near future the two numbers will converge. Immigration is currently assisting our population, but since the rest of the world is on the same track (some farther ahead, some farther behind) that won't last long. (May 2023 update 2021 birth and death data from National Vital Statistics System: USA official Data for 2021 shows only 200,061 more births than deaths. We are getting closer to raw population decline in the USA. I challenge you to look at immigration. There may be a reason the gov is allowing unprecedented entry to the USA this week.)

This will lead to population decline. The UN within the last 10 years use to speak of population peak and decline (with an estimate of around 2050). They have stopped. But the reality is that that date has moved closer, not farther away. I think it currently resides in the range of 2031-2049. If current trends continue that date moves to the earlier side.

So: short term, we need to have more "self reliance" and even wealth so that that smaller working population can support the very young and very old. Long term, however, we still need the manual skills of former generations.

The catch is Artificial Intelligence. If the missing workers are replaced by tech, the effects will be mitigated. However, the trade off, in terms of freedom, will not be palatable to many. Those people will have to decide how much tech to continue to use as tools and how to avoid tech as a trap.(May 2023 update: Artificial Intelligence replacing workers. Where have I heard that recently?)

When that decision is made, I think you will see the Zion that is looked forward to emerge. It will be the separation of those willing to worship the "beast" to survive and those not willing to take the mark to buy and sell. Living the United Order fully, there could be no line by line exchange of goods that resembled buying and selling. It would have to be a full consecration and bestowing of stewardship to avoid the penalty of buying and selling without the mark of the beast.

If I remember correctly, 2029 is the year that 20% of the US population will be 65 or older. The financial self reliance the Church is emphasizing right now needs to be fully in place by that point for the working population to have any chance to help all those (older and younger) who are not working. But again, that will be a short term solution. The benefits of what is learned by that, however, will carry forward into the next phase of using more manual skills for survival.

Indy
captain of 100
Posts: 116

Re: Self Reliance on LDS.org today - How the emphasis has changed over the years

Post by Indy »

Things have really changed over the years.

I stopped by the Home Storage Center last Saturday to pick up wheat for baking. I usually go every fall and get enough for a year once I am done with my canning. There is only one HSC in my state. We got to the center an hour before they closed. The Sister working there told me we were the only ones to stop by that week, and they had only sold $15 worth of storage food the week before. I have to admit I was in shock. We had gotten to the center an hour before it closed to make sure we allowed plenty of time. I was sure there would be a line as there has always been for the last 20 years. She told me the members are just not interested in purchasing food storage any more. Now I realize many probably picked up extra once the HSC opened back up after Covid, and money is tight in allot of homes due to the devaluing of the dollar. But do people think things are going to get better? Or has the emphasis really changed so much that it is no longer important?

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FrankOne
captain of 1,000
Posts: 2826

Re: Self Reliance on LDS.org today - How the emphasis has changed over the years

Post by FrankOne »

Indy wrote: September 14th, 2023, 6:53 pm Things have really changed over the years.

I stopped by the Home Storage Center last Saturday to pick up wheat for baking. I usually go every fall and get enough for a year once I am done with my canning. There is only one HSC in my state. We got to the center an hour before they closed. The Sister working there told me we were the only ones to stop by that week, and they had only sold $15 worth of storage food the week before. I have to admit I was in shock. We had gotten to the center an hour before it closed to make sure we allowed plenty of time. I was sure there would be a line as there has always been for the last 20 years. She told me the members are just not interested in purchasing food storage any more. Now I realize many probably picked up extra once the HSC opened back up after Covid, and money is tight in allot of homes due to the devaluing of the dollar. But do people think things are going to get better? Or has the emphasis really changed so much that it is no longer important?
huh. interesting but i guess...not surprising. All is well in Zion does seem to be the 'new' teaching as far as I've gathered.

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