Silver Contest: Week 8 (of 11)

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Silver
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 8 (of 11)

Post by Silver »

David13 wrote: June 8th, 2017, 2:17 pm Are you gonna have any honorary winners?
dc
Sounds like a great idea. What do you have in mind?

The rules call for anybody who has come in 2nd place three times (without actually ever winning) to be eligible for an ounce.

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Lexew1899
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 8 (of 11)

Post by Lexew1899 »

My guess would be near or equal to the approximate value that the derivative market has set and fixed the price of silver at, resulting in a flattening of the valuation of silver and the inability for it to rise despite constant inflation of the US dollar in relation to other goods and commodities. It used to be a good hedge against inflation, but is now just a basic commodity with little value in relation to investment considering it is backed by insurance. No peaks of valleys, can't sell high or buy low. As long as mining stays consistent it is just a basic commodity like apples and oranges, although they have more investment potential considering their price can be affected by freak storms, eg freezes, hail. If you want an asset that can grow exponentially it would be cryptocurrancey.

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BeNotDeceived
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 8 (of 11)

Post by BeNotDeceived »

Lexew1899 wrote: June 8th, 2017, 6:04 pm My guess would be near or equal to the approximate value that the derivative market has set and fixed the price of silver at, resulting in a flattening of the valuation of silver and the inability for it to rise despite constant inflation of the US dollar in relation to other goods and commodities. It used to be a good hedge against inflation, but is now just a basic commodity with little value in relation to investment considering it is backed by insurance. No peaks of valleys, can't sell high or buy low. As long as mining stays consistent it is just a basic commodity like apples and oranges, although they have more investment potential considering their price can be affected by freak storms, eg freezes, hail. If you want an asset that can grow exponentially it would be cryptocurrancey.
A few weeks back the kitco sidebar had an article about how they were reducing mining due to the price. This provides a lower limit beyond which it will not likely fall. I just bought 10 lbs. :-o

5 newly minted 2lb coins from eBay. Seemed a pro had the high bid at 101.50 so last minute I bid 111.11 and won for 108.50 The pro (anonymous account) limited his bid at 106.50, so seemed pretty good as shipping is free. Anyone aware of a Prophecy about the British Pound retaining value when others collapse?

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Re: Silver Contest: Week 8 (of 11)

Post by Silver »

BeNotDeceived wrote: June 8th, 2017, 8:28 pm
Lexew1899 wrote: June 8th, 2017, 6:04 pm My guess would be near or equal to the approximate value that the derivative market has set and fixed the price of silver at, resulting in a flattening of the valuation of silver and the inability for it to rise despite constant inflation of the US dollar in relation to other goods and commodities. It used to be a good hedge against inflation, but is now just a basic commodity with little value in relation to investment considering it is backed by insurance. No peaks of valleys, can't sell high or buy low. As long as mining stays consistent it is just a basic commodity like apples and oranges, although they have more investment potential considering their price can be affected by freak storms, eg freezes, hail. If you want an asset that can grow exponentially it would be cryptocurrancey.
A few weeks back the kitco sidebar had an article about how they were reducing mining due to the price. This provides a lower limit beyond which it will not likely fall. I just bought 10 lbs. :-o

5 newly minted 2lb coins from eBay. Seemed a pro had the high bid at 101.50 so last minute I bid 111.11 and won for 108.50 The pro (anonymous account) limited his bid at 106.50, so seemed pretty good as shipping is free. Anyone aware of a Prophecy about the British Pound retaining value when others collapse?
Wait a second. Are you substituting lb for Pound? And what is the content of the coin? Silver is usually sold by the troy ounce which is different than the regular ounce by which we measure the weight of breakfast cereal, for example.

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BeNotDeceived
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 8 (of 11)

Post by BeNotDeceived »

Silver wrote: June 8th, 2017, 8:38 pm
BeNotDeceived wrote: June 8th, 2017, 8:28 pm
Lexew1899 wrote: June 8th, 2017, 6:04 pm My guess would be near or equal to the approximate value that the derivative market has set and fixed the price of silver at, resulting in a flattening of the valuation of silver and the inability for it to rise despite constant inflation of the US dollar in relation to other goods and commodities. It used to be a good hedge against inflation, but is now just a basic commodity with little value in relation to investment considering it is backed by insurance. No peaks of valleys, can't sell high or buy low. As long as mining stays consistent it is just a basic commodity like apples and oranges, although they have more investment potential considering their price can be affected by freak storms, eg freezes, hail. If you want an asset that can grow exponentially it would be cryptocurrancey.
A few weeks back the kitco sidebar had an article about how they were reducing mining due to the price. This provides a lower limit beyond which it will not likely fall. I just bought 10 lbs. :-o

5 newly minted 2lb coins from eBay. Seemed a pro had the high bid at 101.50 so last minute I bid 111.11 and won for 108.50 The pro (anonymous account) limited his bid at 106.50, so seemed pretty good as shipping is free. Anyone aware of a Prophecy about the British Pound retaining value when others collapse?
Wait a second. Are you substituting lb for Pound? And what is the content of the coin? Silver is usually sold by the troy ounce which is different than the regular ounce by which we measure the weight of breakfast cereal, for example.
They're 1 oz .999 purity silver coins with a face value of 2 pounds; here's a similar listing. Image

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2017-Great-Brit ... 1ec80f3b4f

I also bought a circulated Morgan silver 50 cent piece with 5 dimes and a 1oz American uncirculated silver $1 coin, like what you have.

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Re: Silver Contest: Week 8 (of 11)

Post by Silver »

BeNotDeceived wrote: June 8th, 2017, 8:55 pm
Silver wrote: June 8th, 2017, 8:38 pm
BeNotDeceived wrote: June 8th, 2017, 8:28 pm
Lexew1899 wrote: June 8th, 2017, 6:04 pm My guess would be near or equal to the approximate value that the derivative market has set and fixed the price of silver at, resulting in a flattening of the valuation of silver and the inability for it to rise despite constant inflation of the US dollar in relation to other goods and commodities. It used to be a good hedge against inflation, but is now just a basic commodity with little value in relation to investment considering it is backed by insurance. No peaks of valleys, can't sell high or buy low. As long as mining stays consistent it is just a basic commodity like apples and oranges, although they have more investment potential considering their price can be affected by freak storms, eg freezes, hail. If you want an asset that can grow exponentially it would be cryptocurrancey.
A few weeks back the kitco sidebar had an article about how they were reducing mining due to the price. This provides a lower limit beyond which it will not likely fall. I just bought 10 lbs. :-o

5 newly minted 2lb coins from eBay. Seemed a pro had the high bid at 101.50 so last minute I bid 111.11 and won for 108.50 The pro (anonymous account) limited his bid at 106.50, so seemed pretty good as shipping is free. Anyone aware of a Prophecy about the British Pound retaining value when others collapse?
Wait a second. Are you substituting lb for Pound? And what is the content of the coin? Silver is usually sold by the troy ounce which is different than the regular ounce by which we measure the weight of breakfast cereal, for example.
They're 1 oz .999 purity silver coins with a face value of 2 pounds; here's a similar listing. Image

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2017-Great-Brit ... 1ec80f3b4f

I also bought a circulated Morgan silver 50 cent piece with 5 dimes and a 1oz American uncirculated silver $1 coin, like what you have.
OK, I see now. Good job on accumulating. Slow and steady. Never spend the grocery money or the rent money on the shiny.

2EstablishZion
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 8 (of 11)

Post by 2EstablishZion »

17.02 is looking pretty good right now.

Silver
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 8 (of 11)

Post by Silver »

2EstablishZion wrote: June 9th, 2017, 9:28 am 17.02 is looking pretty good right now.
Ha! You just jinxed yourself.

2EstablishZion
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 8 (of 11)

Post by 2EstablishZion »

That wasn't my guess
I already jinxed myself with "cursed" 17.76 :D

Silver
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 8 (of 11)

Post by Silver »

2EstablishZion wrote: June 9th, 2017, 11:17 am That wasn't my guess
I already jinxed myself with "cursed" 17.76 :D
Senior moment on my part. The gray is strong with this one.

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iWriteStuff
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 8 (of 11)

Post by iWriteStuff »

Well, that's awkward. Which one of you guessed $1,266.80?
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Silver
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 8 (of 11)

Post by Silver »

Alrighty, silver closed at $17.17 this week meaning that gilgal wins again with his guess of $17.20. 2nd place goes to BeNotDeceived at $17.02.

gilgal, I will send your ounce on Monday. You are ineligible to win in Weeks 9&10, but you're welcome to guess again in Week 11.

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Re: Silver Contest: Week 8 (of 11)

Post by David13 »

Speaking of cryptocurrency I know two guys who last year put several hundred thousand into cc. They now describe themselves as total idiots as they only doubled their money in the one year.
Due to the way they did it, they did not get 10 times their money, like they could have.
dc

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Re: Silver Contest: Week 8 (of 11)

Post by BeNotDeceived »

David13 wrote: June 10th, 2017, 12:25 pm Speaking of cryptocurrency I know two guys who last year put several hundred thousand into cc. They now describe themselves as total idiots as they only doubled their money in the one year.
Due to the way they did it, they did not get 10 times their money, like they could have.
dc
Crypto currencies in the end game also come down to energy. Really a big waste of electricity and China doesn't care about pollution so they end up being a huge negative. Joules are aptly named and will drive the value of some metals. Image

1) Platinum for fuel cells becoming prevalent in Japan and Hawaii.

2) Titanium doesn't foul when used to create heat exchangers for OTEC.

3) Lithium for current technology of batteries; one of many great by-products of OTEC.

Nuclear reactions convert matter into energy, so it's either Earth scale reactors or via solar, with OTEC being the bulk of that. All are risky until the energy transport battle is decided. Silver too is affected by the mining cost, which for the sake of stability is better than gold where someone will eventually tap a huge pocket deep within the earth and unlike most metals, gold doesn't require much energy to refine it, and the price will plummet.

New technologies can replace any of these applications, and Cold Fusion may disrupt every thing. It would be cool if a coin actually contained the energy that it might represent; this may become possible, especially should a fusion ready material be discovered. :ymhug:

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Lexew1899
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 8 (of 11)

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₿ now at $4,309. Up from $2,787 from June 6th, 2017 when I said cryto was a better investment. A rise of 64%. How is that silver investment doing? I'm sure the insurance companies are making sure the price is in goosestep with their operating costs. Have to have that ROI.

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Re: Silver Contest: Week 8 (of 11)

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Lexew1899 wrote: August 14th, 2017, 9:26 am ₿ now at $4,309. Up from $2,787 from June 6th, 2017 when I said cryto was a better investment. A rise of 64%. How is that silver investment doing? I'm sure the insurance companies are making sure the price is in goosestep with their operating costs. Have to have that ROI.
Not speaking for others, but my silver was never intended to be an investment. The Federal Reserve is neither. Therefore, I convert my fiat paper into physical. I can find silver in the Bible and in the Constitution. Neither of those great works approve of Federal Reserve Hiney Wipes.

Glad to read that you are making some great returns.

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Lexew1899
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 8 (of 11)

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Why go through the cost of converting a fiat asset into a physical asset when the costs of doing so offsets any potential advantage in the first place? Is US inflation rising at a slower rate than the price of silver is rising? IE, is silver rising faster than inflation to justify converting fiat into silver bullion? No.

Why? It is a hedge against WORLDWIDE inflation, not US inflation only. US dollars are rising in relation to other currencies around the world, so silver isn't keeping pace with that rise to be advantageous currently for those of us living in the US.

Let's suppose one were to invest, or "convert" like you say $1,000 into silver in 2013. Was this a good way to hedge against inflation or a good savings vehicle? First there are intrinsic costs in this conversion, you don't actually get $1,000 dollars worth of silver, you always buy at a premium from dealers. These people have operational costs like any other business, not to mention potential sales tax that may or may not apply in the state you reside that you would have to pay.

Let’s suppose this conversion ratio is a modest 4%, buying the lowest priced silver bullion round you can find, excluding taxes (some states, like Texas, don’t require sales tax on bullion). Assume you bought it at a decent time, on July 4, 2013 at $19.58 per troy oz. Add the 4% it costs for shipping, and the premium you are paying, and you pay around $20.36 per round. That $1,000 neted you around 49 silver rounds.

That same conversion is valued at $17.12 today, or $838.88.

So you lost a bit of money. What would have happened to that fiat if you had just left it in a bank account and let a meager .025% interest occur? Obviously you would have over $1,000. With the interest you would have made $9.

What is the effect of inflation on both of these amounts?

Image

Inflation from July 2013 to Aug. 2017 is effectively (233.596*100/244.786=95.4286 or 4.6%). So each value is thus adjusted.

If you converted your fiat into silver your buying power is effectively $800.53.

If you had left you fiat in the bank it would be equivalent to $962.87.

So converting it into silver had a negative effect on your savings.

If you had invested that same $1,000 into Bitcoin on July 4th 2013 at $76.47, and assuming a cash transfer fee of around $14.50 such as found on Coinbase. You would have netted 12.88740682 Bitcoins(rounds down to the 8th point).

Today that is currently valued at $54,732.04.
Last edited by Lexew1899 on August 14th, 2017, 12:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Silver Contest: Week 8 (of 11)

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I'm not trying to tell people that silver is a "bad" investment per se or conversion strategy, but it is bad right now. The price has been fixed in gold and silver by the notorious Rothchild family with the "Lonon Fix" for several decades. That came to an end I believe in 2014, but the price is still backed by derivatives, which essentially makes it immune to big rise or falls. It is just a shiny nest egg that wont go up in value or decrease in value dramatically. The initial cost of this conversion currently outweighs doing it in the first place.

I would recommend Bitcoin as a means of investment for people who are interesting in making money since it is itself a finite asset. It is obviously highly more valued than the US dollar. Why is this? Why is one Bitcoin now worth over $4,000?

It is this valuable, because it is a finite asset. There are only 16,000,000 Bitcoin in existence. There wont be more Bitcoin. You can not mint more Bitcoin. It is fixed at 16,000,000. It isn't controlled by a central bank. It is a peer to peer form of money that no single entity controls. It is a collective of people who only have an interest in it going up in value.

It is also poorly implemented right now. There are only a few Bitcoin ATMs and debit cards in the US. As this number rises, since it is a fixed asset the value of Bitcoin will also rise. As it becomes more recognized and adopted the price will go up, without more mintage.

I would predict that the price will likely go to upwards of $25,000 per Bitcoin by 2025.

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Re: Silver Contest: Week 8 (of 11)

Post by Silver »

Lexew1899 wrote: August 14th, 2017, 12:14 pm Why go through the cost of converting a fiat asset into a physical asset when the costs of doing so offsets any potential advantage in the first place? Is US inflation rising at a slower rate than the price of silver is rising? IE, is silver rising faster than inflation to justify converting fiat into silver bullion? No.
I have not made myself clear. I believe Federal Reserve notes to be illegal and immoral. However, as a US citizen/resident, I must transact in them. Therefore, I convert my spare Hiney Wipes into something that I prefer which is shiny and made by Jehovah. I don't care if I lose money because, at the end of the game, all the Monopoly money goes back in the box. Therefore, my main purpose is to hold as few poisonous pieces of paper as possible. Neither do I want to own financial instruments denominated in US$. With silver, I don't have to watch the value; I can merely count the ounces.

Best of luck to you in all your investment strategies.

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Lexew1899
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 8 (of 11)

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The Rothchild family based derivatives market silver feeds is immoral though. Good luck with your strategy though. The big banks love it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_fixing

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BeNotDeceived
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 8 (of 11)

Post by BeNotDeceived »

Bit coin resembles Adulterated Amway; those that got in early made out like bandits, a subset of law-breakers, who mostly use cryptos to hide nefarious transactions.

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Lexew1899
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 8 (of 11)

Post by Lexew1899 »

I wasn't aware fiat was never used for nefarious purposes. Or gold and silver, which can be used to buy up armies and navies either. Amazing.

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Re: Silver Contest: Week 8 (of 11)

Post by BeNotDeceived »

Lexew1899 wrote: August 14th, 2017, 1:38 pm I wasn't aware fiat was never used for nefarious purposes. Or gold and silver, which can be used to buy up armies and navies either. Amazing.
You forgot diamonds; =)) my friend long ago would receive a mysterious little bag of raw diamonds each Christmas from Africa. Check the movie Blood Diamond. X(

Energy applied over time is called work and is of real value. Cryptos represent work, but unfortunately they represent the waste thereof. IF ... then we will have developed the perfect currency Image

What I found when I was looking to buy bit coin wasn't good. And if cryptos are the only form of payment accepted you will find it's because the transaction can not stand the light of day.

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Re: Silver Contest: Week 8 (of 11)

Post by nvr »

Every increase in the bitcoin price is a bit like pouring salt in my eye.
I earned about 1 BTC per day for a month back in 2011 with a set up of 7 graphics cards on a few computers. I ended up with 24 bitcoins before a storm came and knocked out power and I didn't feel like going downstairs to reboot them. I then just stored the bitcoins on my wife's computer in the standard wallet file location.
After coming home from a weeklong business trip I went to check my wallet balance and saw that they were all gone. I followed the transactions on the blockchain and saw how my bitcoins got split up and sent to multiple accounts and then resplit and sent to even more accounts in a branching out pattern (thus no way to trace the recipient reliably). We figured that my wife must have inadvertently gotten a virus from one of her sewing blogs while I was gone which wiped the wallet out. I'm still a little suspicious that some Microsoft engineer covertly added an update to Windows to look for BTC wallets and transfer the contents. Who knows.
I got most of my money back from the graphics cards at least, but those bitcoins would have been worth about $100,000 by now (if I resisted the urge to sell them until now)
I refuse to get back on that bandwagon now, though. Although it is a slightly better concept than federal reserve notes, it's just too esoteric and insecure for me - at least I can physically guard cash or hold a bank accountable. Silver and gold seem to be a better long-term, world-war resistant means to preserve wealth.

Silver
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 8 (of 11)

Post by Silver »

I became aware of bitcoins when they were selling for $5. Even if I had bought them then, I would have sold them at $20 or $50 or certainly around $100. The Lord's been real good to me. I won't worry about the fish that got away.
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