For People Claiming Pneumonia Numbers Are "Way Down"

[Zathura]

Numbers for this type of thing constantly lag behind. The following video shows the last few years by week ,as you can see throughout the year it constantly looks like the number of cases is well below the previous years, but by the end of the year it ends up right about where you'd expect it.

I'd imagine that by the time 2021 rolls around, people won't be able to claim an abnormal percentage of pneumonia cases are erroneously being attributed to covid-19. I'd also be willing to bet you might see a slight drop that you can attribute to COVID-19, but not as big as people are running around claiming.

pneumonia.gif (413.66 KiB) Viewed 395 times

Source: https://github.com/tylermorganme/pni-data
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TylerMorganMe


This is the list of files from which the data comes, and a screenshot of what the data looks like for those who will never look through the github repository.

List of Data.PNG (46.2 KiB) Viewed 395 times

file.PNG (40.18 KiB) Viewed 395 times

The CDC has an explanation here for why its data lags behind, information behind their estimations, definitions of death etc.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm


edit: I optimized the gif and reduced its size and so it cut out a few frames. I can add the full version if anyone has complaints. I think this version is completely fine though, it shows how numbers look low at the beginning of the year and end up catching up by the end of the year.

[Zathura]

Look what happened once the lagging numbers were added. Wait.. pneumonia deaths for that week is HIGHER than previous years? But I thought all the pneumonia deaths were being counted as covid deaths?!? This will continually be adjusted throughout the year. Pneumonia deaths will look like a normal year in 2020.

pnew.PNG (222.61 KiB) Viewed 295 times

https://twitter.com/TylerMorganMe/statu ... 0931661826

Can't stop disinformation. Sheep will be sheep. There are 2 herds, and sheep will inevitably end up in one or the other, and both herds will baah baah about how the other herd is infected with herd mentality.

[Zathura]

Capture.PNG (145.62 KiB) Viewed 203 times

Shocking. The exact opposite of what's being falsely claimed on this forum.. by a LONG SHOT is happening here. People were claiming numbers were off by about 2000 because pneumonia deaths were counted towards covid. Looks like they are up by 2000, net difference of 4000. No matter though.

I'm shook, I tell you.

Took one week for the lagging numbers to jump that far. Deaths contributed to Pneumonia for those same weeks will continue to be added to those previous weeks throughout the coming months.

Even if you take these numbers which probably should be attributed to covid instead and apply them to covid, the overall number of deaths is relatively small. If i were to do some quick patchwork math, I'd guess this would add up to maybe 15,000-20,000 deaths over the course of a year that should be added to covid. That's not the problem. The problem is people selectively choosing what facts they want to share and believe.

[Lemarque]

I for one am glad to get more information that helps me be better informed. From the beginning of the coronavirus I have been trying to find the weekly death data information to be able to compare this year to previous years. Because it was my first time using the data, I didn't know how incomplete it was. It doesn't help that the CDC lists the data as >100% complete on their site. I have since shared your gif with people showing the lag in data.

[Lemarque]

The problem is people selectively choosing what facts they want to share and believe.

I think the problem is having so much new information available constantly. Most people don't have the time to really look into the data, but they do have the time to share an article that was interesting to them. In most cases they aren't the ones creating the content that is being shared.

I joined the forum recently, so I didn't see the posts about pneumonia being counted as covid. On the gif, it shows that the pneumonia deaths typically start at around half the number they end up at during the winter. Do you think the spike in the chart will do the same? Seeing as we have such a huge spike already, would you be suspicious if that spike doesn't significantly increase over the next month or two? My thought is that the reasons for the delay in data should be there regardless of coronavirus, and perhaps even more delayed due to the increase in deaths?

Hopefully this doesn't come across as being a sheep. I'm genuinely interested in this data and seeing how the numbers pan out compared to previous years.