Is there a difference between a thought crime and publicly stating the desire to shoot up a school, kill cops, and basically go out in a blaze of glory with your trusty rifle sitting next to you in a picture you post to social media?
I'd think there was a difference between the two. As per probable cause, how much more probable do you get than establishing ability, motive and the stated intent to commit a crime?
You've been/are in law enforcement, if I remember correctly. What say ye? At what point do you want to confront this kid: before or after the shooting?