The Church and losses.

[Craig Johnson]

You're right, but I liked the direction for a minute!

[Fiannan]

There is a scene in "The Walking Dead" where a group of cannibals from a settlement called Terminus have captured Bob. The leader is lecturing him until he changes the subject and comments that he tastes really good. Bob appears okay but then we find out his leg has been amputated and is being eaten by the group.

This is our state today. We feel "all is well" and such but in reality we are in desperate shape. This is true of all of western society - it is being consumed by evil and yet most people just sit back and appear not to even notice. Unlike Bob we are not physically tied up, but our mental chains are just as strong and while turning to God, or at least His moral teachings, would free us most people are not even aware they are bound.

[farmerchick]

Bob had been bitten and was infected while his captors were enjoying his leg. Bob laughed and told them their end was near as they had consumed him and he was already infected. I think bob won that round but they all lost. All is not well... but polygamy won't fix it. Just my 2 cent.

[Fiannan]

Bob had been bitten and was infected while his captors were enjoying his leg. Bob laughed and told them their end was near as they had consumed him and he was already infected. I think bob won that round but they all lost. All is not well... but polygamy won't fix it. Just my 2 cent.

Well you could take the analogy a bit further and note that the people who are trying to destroy the family unit so they can destroy western civilization ultimately depend on that civilization for their own survival and infecting it with the ideas they have been will take them down too.

[David13]

Well, I can say tv has now put some more interesting things on, but I'll still go without any tv.
It would take me hours of watching to get to the little interesting tidbits you two have shared here. Here I can get it in two minutes.
Interesting. But I'll pass on the tv. ( Save money that way, too.)
dc

[JackBuckeye]

I live in a ward in an area where jobs for those with the right education are plentiful and where housing prices are more affordable and real estate taxes are relatively lower than in other areas. We have many large and active families in our ward with one breadwinner. I have noticed that in depressed areas church membership is generally weaker and declining. Also in areas where housing is sky high this tends to inhibit the formation of families. Housing and rents have gone up much faster than imcome. I would imagine that inflated student debt may have a play in this as well. Why did population growth in the US slow during the Great Depression in the 1930's and boom after the war (1946-1964)?

[BroJones]

I would be interested in knowing the number of full-time missionaries now, and in years past, and where this info is available.

[h_p]

After the April 2017 General Conf, I compiled numbers from all the statistical reports published on lds.org. They go back to 1970, but didn't provide missionary headcount until 1977. Here's the numbers from my spreadsheet, including the number of convert baptisms per missionary per year.

Looks like missionaries were most productive back in 1989, btw. This also shows that the missionary surge was pretty much ineffective as far as baptism rates go. And 2016 saw the lowest number of convert baptisms since 1987, which is pretty sad.

church-stats.gif (138.06 KiB) Viewed 3129 times

[WikiUp]

When were the missionary discussion lessons changed from the old "Mr. Brown" type to the new "Preach My Gospel" type?

Wonder if this has had an impact on the conversion per missionary percentage.

[Michelle]

I live in a ward in an area where jobs for those with the right education are plentiful and where housing prices are more affordable and real estate taxes are relatively lower than in other areas. We have many large and active families in our ward with one breadwinner. I have noticed that in depressed areas church membership is generally weaker and declining. Also in areas where housing is sky high this tends to inhibit the formation of families. Housing and rents have gone up much faster than imcome. I would imagine that inflated student debt may have a play in this as well. Why did population growth in the US slow during the Great Depression in the 1930's and boom after the war (1946-1964)?

If you are actually interested in demographics and this question might I recommend a few books, after I make note that population growth in the USA slowed long before the Great Depression, right around the Founding, the Baby Boom was an anomaly. (I don't agree with all of the solutions presented, but the data is good.)

Philip Longman "The Empty Cradle: How Falling Birthrates Threaten World Prosperity And What To Do About It"

Jonathan V. Last "What to Expect When No One's Expecting: America's Coming Demographic Disaster"

[Michelle]

When were the missionary discussion lessons changed from the old "Mr. Brown" type to the new "Preach My Gospel" type?

Wonder if this has had an impact on the conversion per missionary percentage.

I think around 2004.

Edit:
I just checked the chart someone posted and there is a bump in the years after that before it starts dropping again.

[h_p]

In the late 80's we had the 6-part discussions with sort of an outline-type format. We weren't required to memorize anything but the scriptures that were part of the lessons, but that was mainly for our own benefit. We liked to have the investigators read them themselves. But we could teach the lessons in our own words. Looks like the memorized lessons were replaced in 1986, a few years before I served. This is a long article but has lots of details on when all the lessons changed: https://www.sunstonemagazine.com/pdf/138-28-46.pdf

FWIW, my father served in northern California in the mid-60's, so that would have been with the memorized "Mr. Browns." He baptized 66 people on his mission there during the 2 years he served. I wish we had church-wide statistics for that time period to see if that was an exception to the rule, or normal. But missionaries going out now, on average, are pretty much seeing 1/10 of that.

[Thinker]

For a while now, church preaching, curiculum and cultural pressure has been somewhat quiet with a hint about having about 3 or less kids. Whereas before, (about 20 years ago) there seemed to be a constant pressure to have as many kids as you could. A possible reason why the discontinued pressure to have big families could be the trend of big families asking for church welfare, and maybe some stats that suggest big families overall are not as much an asset as they once were - mission and financial-wise.

The church has a corporate empire, so even if chapels have even ridiculously less active, they will thrive because they have priorized finances beginning when they ran into trouble and began hiding finances. I imagine at some point, not only will members be asked to clean the buildings but also to run fund-raisers to help pay for other costs. Makes me wonder what is a king with no or few subjects?

[JohnnyL]

I imagine at some point, not only will members be asked to clean the buildings but also to run fund-raisers to help pay for other costs. Makes me wonder what is a king with no or few subjects?

Yeah, members used to pay for operating costs, and before that, often had to construct the chapels.

[Michelle]

For a while now, church preaching, curiculum and cultural pressure has been somewhat quiet with a hint about having about 3 or less kids. Whereas before, (about 20 years ago) there seemed to be a constant pressure to have as many kids as you could. A possible reason why the discontinued pressure to have big families could be the trend of big families asking for church welfare, and maybe some stats that suggest big families overall are not as much an asset as they once were - mission and financial-wise.

The church has a corporate empire, so even if chapels have even ridiculously less active, they will thrive because they have priorized finances beginning when they ran into trouble and began hiding finances. I imagine at some point, not only will members be asked to clean the buildings but also to run fund-raisers to help pay for other costs. Makes me wonder what is a king with no or few subjects?

I have heard it said, when the people stop listening, the Lord stops speaking. I wouldn't say they have been entirely silent on the principle, but most people I know with big families right now, are those who choose to study the words of the prophets and listen the Spirit. Those who seek to know the Lord's will, not just follow the crowd. Those who have actually read or heard the quote "Live together naturally and let the children come," Even though they may have been too young to personally remember the prophet sharing that counsel. (I currently have friends with 14, 10, 10, and 8 children that I visit regularly, but most people I know, even at church, have 0-3.)

A few recent addresses by Elder Cook, Elder Oaks, and President Nelson on the subject.

Also, both Elder Cook (Edit: Elder Oaks, not Elder Cook. Sorry.) and Elder Ballard spoke at the World Congress of Families, though in different years.

Elder Cook addressed not having enough children somewhat dramatically as recently as Feb 7, 2017 when he gave a devotional at BYU entitled: A Banquet of Consequences—The Cumulative Result of All Choices. His excerpt about limiting the number of children and abortion is below. I suggest watching the video if you can find it, for the full effect.

https://www.lds.org/prophets-and-apostl ... s?lang=eng

Family Choices

Family choices follow a similar pattern. In the Father’s plan the role of families is clearly set forth. In “The Family: A Proclamation to the World” it reads, “The family is ordained of God. Marriage between man and woman is essential to His eternal plan. Children are entitled to birth within the bonds of matrimony, and to be reared by a father and a mother who honor marital vows with complete fidelity. Happiness in family life is most likely to be achieved when founded upon the teachings of the Lord Jesus Christ.”18

It is fairly common in today's world, in another paradigm shift, to trumpet alternative choices in a positive way that are in direct conflict with this plan and are unfavorable to marriage and family.

To mention a few:

The choice for both women and men to put education and careers ahead of marriage and family.
The choice to purposefully have no or few children or to terminate pregnancy when inconvenient.19
The choice to engage in immoral conduct as a substitute for the sacred institution of marriage.

The adversary has targeted women and painted motherhood as a dead–end road of drudgery. He has targeted men and painted fatherhood as unimportant and fidelity as “old–school.” The alienation and objectification of pornography is an example of immoral conduct being substituted for the sacred institution of marriage. It underscores the horrific turning from truth and righteousness that the adversary seeks.

Inappropriate alternative choices are painted as appropriate in helping to achieve the worldly goals of freedom and equality. As a result of such choices the average number of children a woman will bear in her lifetime is declining dramatically. It is estimated that 46% of the world lives in countries where the fertility rate is below 2.1 children, the rate necessary for the population to remain stable. Most European and Asian countries are below this level. Italy and Japan are both at 1.3 births. Japan is expected to decrease in population from 120 million to about 100 million by the year 2050.20

This worldwide decline in population has been described by some as the “demographic winter.”21 Many countries are not having enough children to replace the generation that is dying.

Elder Cook’s Demonstration of the “Demographic Winter”
Elder Quentin L. Cook asks students in the Marriott Center at BYU to demonstrate the problem of a “demographic winter.”
Play Video
Let’s see if we can illustrate this problem here in the Marriott Center. Will all of you who are the oldest child in your family please stand and remain standing. In today’s world, in many of these countries, but not the United States, most of the rest of you who are still seated would never have been born.

Thank you; please be seated.

Now, everybody who is the third or later child in your family please stand and remain standing. You would not have been born, even in the United States, if the current trends applied. Can you see why they call it the “demographic winter”?

Thank you; please be seated.

Let me share one other reality that is of great concern to me. I had a sobering experience in Jerusalem last October. We visited the Children’s Memorial Museum, which is part of the World Holocaust Remembrance Center. Elder Holland and I, together with two American Jewish leaders, laid a remembrance wreath. As you move through the Children’s Memorial, the first names of the children and their age at death are announced one after another with a background of music that portrays this terrible atrocity. It is believed that over one million Jewish children22 were killed during the Holocaust.

As I experienced the museum, I was overcome with emotion and completely devastated. Standing outside to regain my composure, I reflected on the horror of the experience and suddenly realized that in the United States alone there are as many abortions every two years23 as the number of Jewish children killed in the Holocaust during the Second World War. Now, as a lawyer, I am cognizant that the motives and intent are entirely different. The Jewish children were killed because they were Jews, and there is no analogue to this in all history, but the intensity of my feeling was about the loss of children. Bringing children into the world is a sacred part of our Father in Heaven’s plan of happiness. We are so numbed and intimidated by the immensity of the practice of abortion that many of us have pushed it to the back of our minds and try to keep it out of our consciousness. Clearly the adversary is attacking the value of children on many levels.

Abortion needs to be approached very carefully. This is a problem that will probably not be solved by personal condemnation or judgmental accusations. Some have cautioned do not judge a ship or men or women without understanding the length of the voyage and the storms they have encountered.24 I might add, many who engage in this deplorable conduct do not have a testimony of the Savior or knowledge of the Father’s plan.

However, for those who believe we are accountable to God, and even for many of those not of our faith who are secular but pride themselves on being on the so-called “right side of history,” this has become a tragedy of monumental proportions. When you combine it with the demographic winter that we have just explored, it is a serious moral blot on our society.

President Spencer W. Kimball taught, “Supreme happiness in marriage is governed considerably by a primary factor—that of the bearing and rearing of children. … The Church cannot approve nor condone … measures which … greatly limit the family.”25

With respect to the number and spacing of children, the health of the mother must be considered, and the decision should be made prayerfully by husbands and wives.26 Such decisions should never be judged by outsiders.27 Some faithful Saints are not able to have children or have the opportunity to marry. They will receive every blessing at the ultimate banquet of consequences.28

Nevertheless, Lucifer has supported abortion and convinced many people in a horrific paradigm shift that children represent lost opportunity and misery, instead of joy and happiness.

As Latter-day Saints, we must be at the forefront of changing hearts and minds on the importance of children. The attacks on the family that I just described ultimately result in grief and misery.

The Lord has declared that His work and His glory is “to bring to pass the immortality and eternal life of man.”29 The plan is established through families. Every family member is important, and their roles are beautiful, glorious, and fulfilling.

The family proclamation could not be more clear about the consequences of choices inconsistent with the Father's plan. It unequivocally proclaims, “We warn that the disintegration of the family will bring upon individuals, communities, and nations the calamities foretold by ancient and modern prophets.”30

This clearly sets forth the ultimate banquet of consequences and the cumulative impact of choices not in accordance with the Father's plan of happiness.

In all marriages and in raising children there are challenges and sacrifices. But the rewards both in this life and in the eternities are breathtakingly beautiful. They emanate from a loving Father in Heaven.

Elder Oaks October 2013
No Other Gods

https://www.lds.org/general-conference/ ... s?lang=eng

Because of what we understand about the potentially eternal role of the family, we grieve at the sharply declining numbers of births and marriages in many Western countries whose historic cultures are Christian and Jewish. Responsible sources report the following:

The United States now has the lowest birthrate in its history,2 and in many European Union nations and other developed countries, birthrates are below the level necessary to maintain their populations.3 This threatens the survival of cultures and even of nations.

In America, the percentage of young adults ages 18 to 29 who are married fell from 59 percent in 1960 to 20 percent by 2010.4 The median age for first marriage is now at its highest level in history: 26 for women and almost 29 for men.5

In many countries and cultures (1) the traditional family of a married mother and father and children is coming to be the exception rather than the rule, (2) the pursuit of a career instead of marriage and the bearing of children is an increasing choice of many young women, and (3) the role and perceived necessity of fathers is diminishing.

In the midst of these concerning trends, we are also conscious that God’s plan is for all of His children and that God loves all of His children, everywhere.6 The first chapter of the Book of Mormon declares that God’s “power, and goodness, and mercy are over all the inhabitants of the earth” (1 Nephi 1:14). A later chapter declares that “he hath given [his salvation] free for all men” and that “all men are privileged the one like unto the other, and none are forbidden” (2 Nephi 26:27–28). Consequently, the scriptures teach that we are responsible to be compassionate and charitable (loving) toward all men (see 1 Thessalonians 3:12; 1 John 3:17; D&C 121:45).

President Nelson
January 26, 2010
Education: A Religious Responsibility

http://www2.byui.edu/Presentations/Tran ... Nelson.htm

Presently, many influential people attribute problems of our day to overpopulation. That concept of overpopulation has become broadly believed, and efforts have been made to control birthrates—with regrettable results. For any society to survive, its birth rate must average at least 2.16 births per woman. In the past 50 years, the birthrate has dropped in nearly every nation of the world. In the nations of Europe, the birthrate has dropped from the replacement rate of 2.16 children per woman to the present rate of 1.45. [11] Data from the United States show similar worrisome trends. In 1960, minor children constituted half of the population; now they are only 30 percent. [12] Predictions are that by the year 2025, single-person households in the United States will outnumber families with children. [13]

Meanwhile, the Lord’s command to “be fruitful, and multiply, and replenish the earth, and subdue it” (see Genesis 1:28; 9:1; Moses 2:28; Abraham 4:28) has never been rescinded.

Now, let me ask you a question. Is the world truly overpopulated? Consider the facts. The latest data indicate that the world’s population is 6.8 billion people. If every one of those 6.8 billion people were allocated one quarter of an acre (for example, under that formula a family with a father and a mother with two children would be given one acre), I repeat, if a quarter of an acre were allocated to each man, woman, and child now living on the earth today, they would all fit in the country of Brazil, with 20 percent of Brazil still left unoccupied!

So the real question is, do we have faith in the word of the Lord? He said, “For the earth is full, and there is enough and to spare” (D&C 104:17). God’s work and His glory is to bring to pass the immortality and eternal life of man, and He has provided this earthly opportunity for us to prepare for that glorious goal.

My young brothers and sisters, to build a house straight and strong, you do not choose crooked boards. So to build your eternal destiny, you cannot—you must not—limit your lessons only to those lessons that are warped by the world to exclude the truth from God. The Book of Mormon underlines this note of caution and hope:

“Seek not to counsel the Lord, but to take counsel from his hand. For behold, ye yourselves know that he counseleth in wisdom, and in justice, and in great mercy, over all his works” (Jacob 4:10).

[RAB]

We have to look at things in context. Just because earlier leaders of the church were staunchly opposed to birth control and encouraged as many children as possible does not mean that their counsel is in effect four our time. For example, the Church removed from the Handbook the denounced use of birth control, except for permanent birth control in the form of tubal ligation or vasectomy, and even then there are exceptions. President Hinkley made it clear, and the Handbook reinforces, that how many children and when to have them is a matter between the couple and the Lord. My wife and I chose to use birth control to space out and number our children. We have sought guidance when, and how many children to have, and have five children, ranging from 14 to twins that are 6. When praying if we should have a sixth child, though both she and I wanted a sixth child at different times, the answer came very clearly, "no." So, while economics may have some impact on the size of families, there can be myriad reasons a family decides to have less children. The important thing to remember is that just as parents should not be judged for having too many children, neither should they be judged for having too few. BTW, the number of Children of the First Presidency and Quorum of the 12 in order is 10, 6, 6, 7, 3, 2, 3, 3, 5, 4, 5, 4, 1 = 4.5 average. I bet if you compared that to earlier leaders it would be much different. So, yeah, times they are a changin'. I don't attribute it to everyone forgetting the counsel of earlier prophets, especially since the counsel has changed over the years. But it does present an interesting question of why people like myself were told not to have more, and when to space out the children. Perhaps children these days require much more specialized attention due to the pitfalls of raising children today.

[Fiannan]

We have to look at things in context. Just because earlier leaders of the church were staunchly opposed to birth control and encouraged as many children as possible does not mean that their counsel is in effect four our time.

So it could be possible to go to the temple in 2030 and meet a lesbian couple there that day to be sealed? I mean if, as you say, times are a changin.'

[LucianAMD]

President Hinkley made it clear, and the Handbook reinforces, that how many children and when to have them is a matter between the couple and the Lord.

Thank you. I'm so sick of all these attitudes that if you don't have 10 children you are a horrible sinner.

[RAB]

We have to look at things in context. Just because earlier leaders of the church were staunchly opposed to birth control and encouraged as many children as possible does not mean that their counsel is in effect four our time.

So it could be possible to go to the temple in 2030 and meet a lesbian couple there that day to be sealed? I mean if, as you say, times are a changin.'

Not even close to the same thing, but that is a nice straw man attempt.

[gkearney]

The number of Children of the First Presidency and Quorum of the 12 in order is 10, 6, 6, 7, 3, 2, 3, 3, 5, 4, 5, 4, 1 = 4.5 average.

Anyone else here notice a trend even in the twelve? Given that the twelve are listed in order senior to junior, we can notice a downward trend line in the number of children even in the highest quorums of the church as the members of that body get younger the number of children declines just as it does in the general church population and the population as a whole. Demographics, it seems, is no respecter of persons.

[Michelle]

Some of them have made it clear they wanted more, but were unable.

[Michelle]

The way I explain it to my kids is, we can never judge an individual, but we can judge a trend.

[Fiannan]

We have to look at things in context. Just because earlier leaders of the church were staunchly opposed to birth control and encouraged as many children as possible does not mean that their counsel is in effect four our time.

So it could be possible to go to the temple in 2030 and meet a lesbian couple there that day to be sealed? I mean if, as you say, times are a changin.'

Not even close to the same thing, but that is a nice straw man attempt.

Why? Church leaders in the past said that the decision to limit one's family size (unless health or genetics was an issue) was a grave sin, well they said it in even harsher terms. So if, commandments have a shelf life, then why not with other issues as well?

[Fiannan]

The number of Children of the First Presidency and Quorum of the 12 in order is 10, 6, 6, 7, 3, 2, 3, 3, 5, 4, 5, 4, 1 = 4.5 average.

Anyone else here notice a trend even in the twelve? Given that the twelve are listed in order senior to junior, we can notice a downward trend line in the number of children even in the highest quorums of the church as the members of that body get younger the number of children declines just as it does in the general church population and the population as a whole. Demographics, it seems, is no respecter of persons.

At least our temples have spires that could easily be turned into minarets...in case in the future a few might go on the open market.

[Michelle]

I believe the reason the prophets can say with confidence that the number of children is between the husband, wife and Lord, is that they already know the Lord's answer with rare exception: "multiply and replenish the earth." It then leaves the husband and wife to bear the responsibility of their decision.

I do not say this lightly. I experience difficulty getting pregnant for a long time. I am not unaware of the heartache those who want some or more children experience, let alone the unmarried. When I prayed I was clearly told not to force the issue. I was to neither use any means to prevent the birth of children OR to force the issue of trying to get pregnant whether with doctors or by means of studying and acting on signals of fertility. The counsel I was given by the Spirit was "Live together naturally and let the children come." I later learned a prophet of God uttered those same words.

I prayed, cried and acted on the promptings of the Spirit for each one of my children and I could hardly have dreamed that I would end up with 7. A true miracle.

But that miracle came with taking a number of actions as directed by the Spirit that seemed counterintuitive and even strange. I was directed by the Spirit to change everything from my diet, to cosmetics, to cleaning supplies, to the fabrics I used in my home. I went from my children being born 35 months apart down to 22 months apart across 14 years. I was healed of a number of health problems and my testimony that the Lord's ways are not man's ways was solidified. Much like Nephi building the boat, my life changed and it was no longer built "after the manner of men."

I know there are those who look on my outward appearance and think I am a bit odd. Many of my good friends have confided that they thought me strange at first, but love me now.

When I asked the Lord if I could share what he taught me, the answer I received was "Most wouldn't be willing to do it anyway." And if they were, they would receive it the same way I did, by the Spirit.

What does this have to do with demographics? At the same time that I lived this experience, I graduated with a degree in Home and Family Living from BYU. I became very interested in demographics and the Lord spent a great deal of time teaching me about it. It seems odd, even to me, that I should have such a passion for such an obscure topic. But again, I have been taught by the Spirit as well as study these last 15-20 years and the things I have learned have gone from being strange and off the radar to most people to talked about, discussed and vital to our near future.

The Natural family, fertility, economics, secret combinations, etc. All of these will determine our future in the next 15 years in ways most people can't begin to imagine. From medical aid in dying to artificial intelligence to "the calamities foretold by ancient and modern prophets."

We are in for a intersection with history that will usher in the return of our Savior. That doesn't mean I am predicting his return in that time, but that the prophesies in the scriptures will continue to be fulfilled as a consequence of this issue.