The Church and losses.

[Fiannan]

Here is a snapshot of membership in 20 years.



http://www.fullerconsideration.com/memb ... dology.php

The decrease in birthrates will be a disaster far greater than empty seats at Church, but it will also cause a severe financial hit. You see, losing both current and future tithe payers in Utah in particular but also the USA and Europe will be devastating to being able to gather resources to accomplish expansion of Church infrastructure. A family in Utah with an average middle-class income will probably pay as much in tithing as 20 families in a place like Ghana, and will certainly be more likely to be able to finance missions for any of their kids who wish to go someday. Yes, 1st world LDS members finance most of the programs for 3rd world Church infrastructure. Some other demographic issues:

1) Members are marrying at an older age. The longer a young person stays single after reaching adulthood the greater chance of them going inactive.

2) The longer young people stay single the more they will participate in sex outside of marriage.

3) The smaller family units become in the LDS population the more that will become the norm, and if people perceive that there is no longer any real doctrinal basis for large families the birthrate will drift more towards whatever the norm is for the society they live in. This is why I believe the projections in this graph are far more optimistic than they should be.

4) If the vital importance of "multiplying and replenishing the earth" is downplayed then sexual energy will be expressed in ways that run counter to the teachings of the Gospel. Why are women "experimental" most when they reach their 40s? The reason is that once they are no longer able to get pregnant then sex becomes more a means of recreation and exploration - and in many cases it turns into a form of identity. This will happen more and more in younger women if they do not sublimate their desires into forming families and is probably a major explanation as to why so many young, middle-class women in western society today are turning to lifestyles that a few years ago were far less prevalent. We will be there as well, just a bit slower.

Missionary work,retention and activity is stagnant in north America and in decline in Europe. We are seeing missions cut and this will continue as the pool of potential missionaries (older, active LDS teens) declines. If the Church fails to address this problem soon then, as our top leaders pointed out in the YouTube video "In Which They Fret Over The Young Single Adults" we will cease to be an inter-generational institution.

[Craig Johnson]

I'm not sure if you are serious but you don't have to worry about the church. Worry about your home teaching and fulfilling your calling. Worry about asking the Lord what extra things you can do. Each one of us that does the best we can is a helper to the Lord and His church and that is where we can provide strength. Social assimilation always has phases, it's a weeding out process of those who did not develop a testimony like they should have. Just watch, the church will always have moments of suffering, but after we make it through that the graph line goes higher. Procrastination is what is ruining so many, but that is their fault, they were warned.

[Crackers]

It's just a seque into a pro-polygamy discussion. He seems to think the church should bring it back. Now.

[Fiannan]

It's just a seque into a pro-polygamy discussion. He seems to think the church should bring it back. Now.

Sorry there Crackers, you apparently are not an expert at mind-reading.

[BeNotDeceived]

Nice Graph

[Fiannan]

Cute there BeNotDeceived...yet...

[BeNotDeceived]

http://www.fullerconsideration.com/templenameoracle.php

Lovely, now if you know the date of someone’s endowment, you can look up thier new name.

[Fiannan]

http://www.fullerconsideration.com/templenameoracle.php

Lovely, now if you know the date of someone’s endowment, you can look up thier new name.

Old news. Why are you unwilling to deal with the original issues? Prove me wrong if you like. Consider this a challenge.

The birthrate of the Church was highest in the late 1970s. I remember that era because that is when I joined the Church. One saw little divorce and a heavy emphasis on building strong couples and the importance of having children, lots of them. Ironically, this was a time when population control propaganda was still at its peek. And there were articles in Church publications that countered this propaganda. Members knew what the prophets had said about families and why they said it.

Today most young people have only a vague idea of the Church stance on bringing spirits into this world and the consequences of not doing so. So who will be held accountable, them or those who should be imparting this knowledge?

Also, I can see a problem in wards today where the youth numbers are in decline, where devout parents only have two or three kids. You see, this creates a socialization problem with the young people as there is less diversity of youth they can socialize with. So if you cannot have some friends in the ward in your critical years of 12 - 16 then you will start finding excuses not to go to Church - after all, the average 16 year-old mind is too fast, hungry and dynamic to hear the same old sacrament talk for the 8th time and pretend to be interested unless they know they will be with their friends in Sunday School at least. So retention will decrease.

Remember, in a very basic sense biology is destiny. That is why the scriptures put such an emphasis on reproduction.

[gradles21]

http://www.fullerconsideration.com/templenameoracle.php

Lovely, now if you know the date of someone’s endowment, you can look up thier new name.

Old news. Why are you unwilling to deal with the original issues? Prove me wrong if you like. Consider this a challenge.

The birthrate of the Church was highest in the late 1970s. I remember that era because that is when I joined the Church. One saw little divorce and a heavy emphasis on building strong couples and the importance of having children, lots of them. Ironically, this was a time when population control propaganda was still at its peek. And there were articles in Church publications that countered this propaganda. Members knew what the prophets had said about families and why they said it.

Today most young people have only a vague idea of the Church stance on bringing spirits into this world and the consequences of not doing so. So who will be held accountable, them or those who should be imparting this knowledge?

Also, I can see a problem in wards today where the youth numbers are in decline, where devout parents only have two or three kids. You see, this creates a socialization problem with the young people as there is less diversity of youth they can socialize with. So if you cannot have some friends in the ward in your critical years of 12 - 16 then you will start finding excuses not to go to Church - after all, the average 16 year-old mind is too fast to hear the same old sacrament talk for the 8th time and pretend to be interested unless they know they will be with their friends in Sunday School at least. So retention will decrease.

Remember, in a very basic sense biology is destiny. That is why the scriptures put such an emphasis on reproduction.

I agree with you, I think active young couples inability or unwillingness to have children is a huge problem in the church that leadership needs to address. It's not enough to rely on quotes from President Kimball to teach us the importance of not putting off having a family. The pews in my ward and in my stake are full of couples near 30 that are childless. They are waiting for this or that to start having a family, and then once they are near 30 and start trying to start their families, they are realizing that its not always easy to conceive. I'm 29 and more than half of my married friends don't have kids.

[simpleton]

http://www.fullerconsideration.com/templenameoracle.php

Lovely, now if you know the date of someone’s endowment, you can look up thier new name.

Old news. Why are you unwilling to deal with the original issues? Prove me wrong if you like. Consider this a challenge.

The birthrate of the Church was highest in the late 1970s. I remember that era because that is when I joined the Church. One saw little divorce and a heavy emphasis on building strong couples and the importance of having children, lots of them. Ironically, this was a time when population control propaganda was still at its peek. And there were articles in Church publications that countered this propaganda. Members knew what the prophets had said about families and why they said it.

Today most young people have only a vague idea of the Church stance on bringing spirits into this world and the consequences of not doing so. So who will be held accountable, them or those who should be imparting this knowledge?

Also, I can see a problem in wards today where the youth numbers are in decline, where devout parents only have two or three kids. You see, this creates a socialization problem with the young people as there is less diversity of youth they can socialize with. So if you cannot have some friends in the ward in your critical years of 12 - 16 then you will start finding excuses not to go to Church - after all, the average 16 year-old mind is too fast to hear the same old sacrament talk for the 8th time and pretend to be interested unless they know they will be with their friends in Sunday School at least. So retention will decrease.

Remember, in a very basic sense biology is destiny. That is why the scriptures put such an emphasis on reproduction.

I agree with you, I think active young couples inability or unwillingness to have children is a huge problem in the church that leadership needs to address. It's not enough to rely on quotes from President Kimball to teach us the importance of not putting off having a family. The pews in my ward and in my stake are full of couples near 30 that are childless. They are waiting for this or that to start having a family, and then once they are near 30 and start trying to start their families, they are realizing that its not always easy to conceive. I'm 29 and more than half of my married friends don't have kids.

I will make a generalized judgement, (actually I made this judgment many years ago in my youth even before marriage) but i believe that for any capable married couple that postpones, delays, limits, their family as in with the mental intention of doing those things for whatever selfish reason, is in the "gall of bitterness" and is no true latter day saint. And will eternally regret those demonic ideas of limiting their family. Imagine for a minute if God was to "limit" his family. The idea of " limiting " your family or keeping your family small, or " I am done having kids now so I'll go get "snipped" are all from HELL itself. After all what is the ultimate prize that is rewarded to faithful saints? ETERNAL LIFE AND ETERNAL INCREASE !!! And eternal increase is only rewarded to those that do not dwelve into those demonic practices.

Apostle Erastus Snow (1818 - 1888):


“The Latter-day Saints do not imitate the examples of the Eastern cities and the old commonwealths of the Atlantic seaboard in destroying their offspring. They do not patronize the vendor of noxious, poisonous, destructive medicines to procure abortion, infanticide; child murder, and other wicked devices, whereby to check the multiplication of their species, in order to facilitate the gratification of fleshly lust. We are not disposed to imitate these examples, nor to drink in the pernicious doctrine once uttered in Plymouth Church by the noted Henry Ward Beecher--that it was a positive evil to increase families in the land beyond a limited extent, and the ability of the parents to properly educate and maintain them, sustaining the idea of small families; in effect, justifying the mothers--the unnatural mothers--of New England, and their partners who sanction their efforts in destroying their own offspring, and in preventing the fecundity of the race. Fancy such a doctrine justified by the noted orator of the nineteenth century, and re-echoed by the smaller fry throughout the country! The Latter-day Saints are taught to reverence the words of the God of Abraham, Isaac and Jacob, concerning the multiplication of their species, and are called as His children to multiply and replenish the earth....

There is one thing that I am told is practiced to some extent among us, and I say to you that where it is practiced and not thoroughly repented of the curse of God will follow it. I refer to the practice of preventing the birth of children. I want to lift my voice in solemn warning against this, and I say to you that the woman who practices such devilish arts, or the man who consents to them, will be cursed of God. Such persons will be cursed in their bodies, cursed in their minds, cursed in their property, cursed in their offspring. God will wipe them out from the midst of this people and nation. Remember it. Mothers, teach this to your daughters, for I tell you it is true. I need not pronounce any curse, whatever my authority may be, but I say to you that women who take this course, and men who consent to it, will be cursed of God Almighty, and it will rest upon them until their generation shall be blotted out, and their name shall be lost from the midst of the Saints of God, unless, as I have said, there is deep, thorough and heartfelt repentance.”

- Apostle George Q. Cannon, Collected Discourses, v. 5, October 7, 1894


Those who attempt to pervert the ways of the Lord, and to prevent their offspring from coming into the world in obedience to this great command, are guilty of one of the most heinous crimes in the category. There is no promise of eternal salvation and exaltation for such as they, for by their acts they prove their unworthiness for exaltation and unfitness for a kingdom where the crowning glory is the continuation of the family union and eternal increase which have been promised to all those who obey the law of the Lord. It is just as much murder to destroy life before as it is after birth, although man-made laws may not so consider it; but there is One who does take notice and his justice and judgment are sure.
“I feel only the greatest contempt for those who, because of a little worldly learning or a feeling of their own superiority over others, advocate and endeavor to control the so-called ‘lower classes' from what they are pleased to call "indiscriminate breeding."
“The old colonial stock that one or two centuries ago laid the foundation of our great nation, is rapidly being replaced by the ‘lower classes' of a sturdier and more worthy race. Worthier because they have not learned, in these modern times, to disregard the great commandment given to man by our Heavenly Father. It is indeed, a case of survival of the fittest, and it is only a matter of time before those who so strongly advocate and practice the pernicious doctrine of ‘birth control' and the limiting of the number of children in the family, will have legislated themselves and their kind out of this mortal existence.”

- Prophet Joseph Fielding Smith, Relief Society Magazine, v. 3, no. 7, July 1916

[David13]

It's true. But it's also inevitable. It will mean that there will be meeting houses closed, perhaps Temples closed. The church will just operate on a smaller scale. It is a process that cannot be reversed.
The same thing has happened over the last 50 years in the Catholic Church. As you travel around the country you will find many Catholic Churches that have been torn down, not replaced, sold and now used for other purposes, etc.
I have seen many taken over by Korean Christians.
I spent 44 years in Los Angeles. But I have only been a member of the church 3 years. I committed the great sin of not having children, tho' the process does take 2.
Now that I'm old, I have no kids to support me in the style I'd like to become accustomed to.

In Los Angeles in our ward, we never had enough young people to pass the Sacrament. I, for almost all of two years, blessed the bread. And many of the high priests were dong the passing.

At least here in Utah there are enough. There is one "ringleader" who is a full grown adult, but the rest are all capable young men. I don't know why they always have one father in there. The should be able to keep themselves on task.

Anyway, I don't think it will be the death of the church. As people get older, they tend to return to their religion. I returned to religion, but with a switch from one to another in the process as I reached old age.

And there has always been such a trend.

I heard an interesting story about Temple attendance in our district this week. An Apostle had come here for Stake Conference. He was asked for a blessing for our area, for economics, and generally.
He didn't answer.
But the next day he said you don't need a blessing. You merely need to do what you are supposed to do. Obey the commandments, attend the Temple, etc.
They say after that Temple attendance dropped 10%.

There are certain inevitabilities. Things that will just happen. And these distractions from the world will increase and seduce more people. It was far more prevalent in Los Angeles.

But even here it was amazing how low meeting attendance was this week, and how many people had to rush home to watch tv. They are so confused they think watching tv is a "sport".
dc

[Craig Johnson]

I have six of my own children and I can tell you there are a whole bunch of folks who should not have any children at all and near the top of that list are those who do not have enough of a testimony to want to have children. Anything that is more important to them that should not be more important (like buying a house first) shows you what their true focus is, themselves, and lack of a real testimony. Please don't think I think I am something because I failed my children in so many ways, but they are all fairly normal with some of them in a condition that breaks my heart. And even that all boils down to not getting a real testimony. We did suffer and my wife had to quit her job, it was rough but we made it and I am retired now and we are okay.

[Vision]

I attended a meeting in 2008 in that Elder Perry conducted for Ward Mission leaders, Bishops, and Stake Presidency members. It was a kick off meeting for the new Salt Lake missions that were created, but later dissolved. He showed us a graph of church growth in North America that was a flatline, and he posted another graph with a different line that showed tithing receipts that track church membership growth. The graph that Fiannan posted is essentially the same chart.

[inho]

Yes, 1st world LDS members finance most of the programs for 3rd world Church infrastructure.

This is one of the take-home messages of D. Michael Quinn's The Mormon Hierarchy: Wealth and Corporate Power.

[BeNotDeceived]

http://www.fullerconsideration.com/templenameoracle.php

Lovely, now if you know the date of someone’s endowment, you can look up thier new name.

Old news. Why are you unwilling to deal with the original issues? Prove me wrong if you like. Consider this a challenge.

Was new news to me, at least seeing it being promulgated, and it caste your information from the same source in a bad light. Not sure the intentions, but they do have a lot of “nice graphs” on deeper inspection.

Indeed we’re doomed as the devil deceives many pushing them along on their path of destruction. For my own part I’m living in seclusion on a remote island ‘till things implode, beggining about 6 1/6 years from now, when the moons shadow doth make its second crossing.

My apologies for my apparent lack of ,, here’s a couple more ,, please use them wisely.

[e-eye2.0]

This is a pride cycle thing. The course can be reversed or accelerated depending on the righteousness of the people - the influence of the world, cost of kids etc has a big affect on how many kids people have.

However, we know how this plays out - There is a sifting that happens (I would say already happening). In this sifting we will see many leave the church and it will accelerate and then you will see the increase in members as people flee the evil world and find safety in the church.

[Rand]

Here is a snapshot of membership in 20 years.



http://www.fullerconsideration.com/memb ... dology.php

The decrease in birthrates will be a disaster far greater than empty seats at Church, but it will also cause a severe financial hit. You see, losing both current and future tithe payers in Utah in particular but also the USA and Europe will be devastating to being able to gather resources to accomplish expansion of Church infrastructure. A family in Utah with an average middle-class income will probably pay as much in tithing as 20 families in a place like Ghana, and will certainly be more likely to be able to finance missions for any of their kids who wish to go someday. Yes, 1st world LDS members finance most of the programs for 3rd world Church infrastructure. Some other demographic issues:

1) Members are marrying at an older age. The longer a young person stays single after reaching adulthood the greater chance of them going inactive.

2) The longer young people stay single the more they will participate in sex outside of marriage.

3) The smaller family units become in the LDS population the more that will become the norm, and if people perceive that there is no longer any real doctrinal basis for large families the birthrate will drift more towards whatever the norm is for the society they live in. This is why I believe the projections in this graph are far more optimistic than they should be.

4) If the vital importance of "multiplying and replenishing the earth" is downplayed then sexual energy will be expressed in ways that run counter to the teachings of the Gospel. Why are women "experimental" most when they reach their 40s? The reason is that once they are no longer able to get pregnant then sex becomes more a means of recreation and exploration - and in many cases it turns into a form of identity. This will happen more and more in younger women if they do not sublimate their desires into forming families and is probably a major explanation as to why so many young, middle-class women in western society today are turning to lifestyles that a few years ago were far less prevalent. We will be there as well, just a bit slower.

Missionary work,retention and activity is stagnant in north America and in decline in Europe. We are seeing missions cut and this will continue as the pool of potential missionaries (older, active LDS teens) declines. If the Church fails to address this problem soon then, as our top leaders pointed out in the YouTube video "In Which They Fret Over The Young Single Adults" we will cease to be an inter-generational institution.

I imagine you'll find a direct correlation to the rise in video game use and the decrease in birth rate.
I do think the graphs you show are demonstrative of a situation in the church. I don't know if I would call it a problem for the Church. It may be a problem for a segment of our members, but not the church. It will be fine. We however need to repent, gain greater faith and humble ourselves, or circumstances will do it for us, if we are willing.

[gkearney]

I think the notion of declining birth rates being attributed to video games is laughable. If you look at the graph you will see a marked decline in birth rate started in 1960. This corresponds to the introduction of oral contraceptives with their use rapidly expanding in the years following.

If your looking for a cause of declining birth rates this is likely the cause.

Another issue here is the fact that as the church has grown in size the ability of church leadership to have impact on the behavior of the membership in matters such as family size and birth control has lessened to such a degree that it seems unlikely at this point that such efforts could succeed. The last such effort was when President Benson directed that mothers should not work outside the home. I think it is clear now that the effort was largely unsuccessful and we hear little such direct discussion of the topic or for that matter related topics today. The age when church leaders were able to directly influence the membership in such matters seems to have passed.

[Craig Johnson]

I imagine you'll find a direct correlation to the rise in video game use and the decrease in birth rate.
I do think the graphs you show are demonstrative of a situation in the church. I don't know if I would call it a problem for the Church. It may be a problem for a segment of our members, but not the church. It will be fine. We however need to repent, gain greater faith and humble ourselves, or circumstances will do it for us, if we are willing.

I like that, I think there is a lot of truth in that from what I have observed in the homes and in the prisons. There is also truth in what gkearney says which I believe has to do somewhat with very successful missionary programs but very unsuccessful testimony development, which you can't program. This is a job for the individual membership, i.e. we are failing our novice brethren and sisters.

[brianj]

I think the notion of declining birth rates being attributed to video games is laughable. If you look at the graph you will see a marked decline in birth rate started in 1960. This corresponds to the introduction of oral contraceptives with their use rapidly expanding in the years following.

If your looking for a cause of declining birth rates this is likely the cause.

This is only one cause, and for many families I think it's a secondary cause.


I want to ask those of you who think that couples not having huge families are in the gall of bitterness a question. (Yes, simpleton, I'm looking at you. But not only you.)

When I joined the church there was an attitude that you should have as many kids as you could care for. If you and your wife are emotionally capable of having 17 kids and she can handle 17 pregnancies, then you are sinning if you don't have 17 kids. If you can't afford to care for those kids then you don't have enough faith, you should see your Bishop, and you should get on welfare.

These days the church does a lot to advance self sufficiency. These days I still hear that we should have all the kids we can care for, but "care for" includes providing for. If you and your wife could emotionally care for 17 kids and she could handle 17 pregnancies, but you could only be financially self sufficient with two or three kids, then you should only have two or three kids.

My question is this: do you believe it's a sin to have far more children than you can financially care for or do you believe it's a sin to be financially self sufficient instead of having more kids than you can afford?



The reason I think oral contraceptives is a secondary cause is because the 60s are when women's liberation (the predecessor to feminism) started getting women out of the house en masse and into the work force. This large influx of workers was absorbed by the economy, but at the cost of suppressing wages due to supply and demand. This didn't cause wages to drop numerically, but to not increase at or ahead of the inflation rate. To quote someone else, someone not LDS or on this forum:

The structures that were once in place to ensure that men could do their jobs and provide for their families are failing. And there is more unexpectedness lurking around each corner. College is not ensuring employment, costs of living are rising while income and job opportunities are shrinking. And to account for that, men have to perform better. They have to have more jobs, they have to even develop expertise in areas that they're not naturally inclined to, and many experience burnout even if they're lucky, as many don't get those jobs because outsourcing has taken them away. And what is left are men that don't look as qualified, don't have as much money, don't have options, and thus are disposable in the dating market.

It's not just the dating market. These days, even in temple marriage, a lot of women consider husbands disposable. And a lot of women, half according to a 2014 study by OnePoll.com, have a guy on standby (translation: friend zoned) they plan to go to if their relationship doesn't satisfy them. Married women were more likely than women in lesser relationships to have a guy on the side.

Someone else on this forum has mentioned multiple male relatives enduring divorce for no better reason than deciding he didn't make enough money to satisfy her. Making enough money to support a family of five or six on a single income is becoming increasingly difficult in our society. It's very easy for people who were having kids in the 60s, comfortably living off of one income, to claim that people these days are too lazy, selfish, or spoiled to have kids. But I sincerely doubt those people would have as many kids as they say people should have if they had to try supporting a family on a typical income these days.

[Fiannan]

These days the church does a lot to advance self sufficiency. These days I still hear that we should have all the kids we can care for, but "care for" includes providing for. If you and your wife could emotionally care for 17 kids and she could handle 17 pregnancies, but you could only be financially self sufficient with two or three kids, then you should only have two or three kids.

And in that case I suppose that if some of the prophets who said this were sinful were to come back to life and stand in judgement they would say the Church deserves to go into stagnation and then decline until there was repentance -- at all levels of authority.

Notice that the baby boomers are now all going into retirement which means a lot less tithe money. Generation X is striving to keep up but they can never match the financial security of the boomers and the Millennials aren't even sure if puberty is over at age 30 or not. Of course our youth should be more mature than that but growing up in smaller families and raised on Disney...well, maybe a remnant of our Church will endure.

My question is this: do you believe it's a sin to have far more children than you can financially care for or do you believe it's a sin to be financially self sufficient instead of having more kids than you can afford?

When I joined the Church one of my teachers was a bishop in another ward. Once he hosted a stake fireside and while I expected a house as nice as the other teachers in town I followed the address into a working-class area of 1950s track (I think that is the term) homes. He chose to live in a less-than-grand home so his wife could stay home when the kids were young and raise their large family. Another bishop held a position in finance that again, I thought he would be in a really nice home. However, again, old working-class home and even drove a van that had seen better days.

In those days people sacrificed to bring children into the world. Today they accommodate children to fit into their preferred lifestyle. How does that jive with the scriptures?

[Fiannan]

It's not just the dating market. These days, even in temple marriage, a lot of women consider husbands disposable. And a lot of women, half according to a 2014 study by OnePoll.com, have a guy on standby (translation: friend zoned) they plan to go to if their relationship doesn't satisfy them. Married women were more likely than women in lesser relationships to have a guy on the side.

Again, not all women!!!

However, we live in a "hedge fund" sort of society. I think that more than a few men also maintain connections with a woman so...well, just in case. It is a society of insecurity.

One big danger though is affairs with the "stand-by." I heard a sex educator note a while back that men generally have affairs to preserve their marriage while women have affairs to end their marriages. Anyone here have any insights as to whether her observation has any merit?

[Rand]

It's not just the dating market. These days, even in temple marriage, a lot of women consider husbands disposable. And a lot of women, half according to a 2014 study by OnePoll.com, have a guy on standby (translation: friend zoned) they plan to go to if their relationship doesn't satisfy them. Married women were more likely than women in lesser relationships to have a guy on the side.

Again, not all women!!!

However, we live in a "hedge fund" sort of society. I think that more than a few men also maintain connections with a woman so...well, just in case. It is a society of insecurity.

One big danger though is affairs with the "stand-by." I heard a sex educator note a while back that men generally have affairs to preserve their marriage while women have affairs to end their marriages. Anyone here have any insights as to whether her observation has any merit?

Sounds like a study done by a man who has had numerous affairs...

[Fiannan]

Sounds like a study done by a man who has had numerous affairs...

The speaker was a woman.

[Gage]

Women always have a guy on standby, is why they are with a new man the day after a break up.