2017-2050 stock market will rise to 50,000

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DEEPER storm
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2017-2050 stock market will rise to 50,000

Post by DEEPER storm »

My prediction for 2017-2050 stock market will rise to 50,000. We are in a 'Melt Up'. A dramatic and unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset class driven partly by a stampede of investors who don't want to miss out on its rise rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy. Gains created by a melt up are considered an unreliable indication of the direction the market is ultimately headed, and melt ups often precede melt downs.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/28/market- ... -says.html

Silver
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Re: 2017-2050 stock market will rise to 50,000

Post by Silver »

Uhm, no. Everything you need to know about the rise of the stock market is obvious in the chart below.
dow fed.jpg
dow fed.jpg (270.58 KiB) Viewed 772 times

Silver
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Re: 2017-2050 stock market will rise to 50,000

Post by Silver »

Or:
s and p fed.png
s and p fed.png (32.2 KiB) Viewed 770 times

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iWriteStuff
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Re: 2017-2050 stock market will rise to 50,000

Post by iWriteStuff »

Silver wrote: October 17th, 2017, 10:48 am Uhm, no. Everything you need to know about the rise of the stock market is obvious in the chart below.

dow fed.jpg
You could do the exact same thing with the Bank of Japan and the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Or the European Central Bank and the FTSE.

Or the Peoples Bank of China and the.... yeah you get the idea.

Central banks buying everything. Until they don't.

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Mark
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Re: 2017-2050 stock market will rise to 50,000

Post by Mark »

iWriteStuff wrote: October 17th, 2017, 10:51 am
Silver wrote: October 17th, 2017, 10:48 am Uhm, no. Everything you need to know about the rise of the stock market is obvious in the chart below.

dow fed.jpg
You could do the exact same thing with the Bank of Japan and the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Or the European Central Bank and the FTSE.

Or the Peoples Bank of China and the.... yeah you get the idea.

Central banks buying everything. Until they don't.

David Stochman is projecting up to a 40% correction in the markets. Do you see that happening as well? It's like playing Russian roulette. Do you feel lucky punk? 8-)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=A732Cuuo2tI

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iWriteStuff
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Re: 2017-2050 stock market will rise to 50,000

Post by iWriteStuff »

Mark wrote: October 17th, 2017, 10:59 am
iWriteStuff wrote: October 17th, 2017, 10:51 am
Silver wrote: October 17th, 2017, 10:48 am Uhm, no. Everything you need to know about the rise of the stock market is obvious in the chart below.

dow fed.jpg
You could do the exact same thing with the Bank of Japan and the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Or the European Central Bank and the FTSE.

Or the Peoples Bank of China and the.... yeah you get the idea.

Central banks buying everything. Until they don't.

David Stochman is projecting up to a 40% correction in the markets. Do you see that happening as well? It's like playing Russian roulette. Do you feel lucky punk? 8-)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=A732Cuuo2tI
Hey, I hope he's right. But his track record isn't so spectacular.

I'm no perma-bull. I think asset valuations are drastically distorted by central bank monetary policy, namely the ones I mentioned. The question is this: what kind of event could destabilize the economy such that Central Banks can't prop it up with more buying?

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DEEPER storm
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Re: 2017-2050 stock market will rise to 50,000

Post by DEEPER storm »

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-st ... 2017-10-04


Some market veterans think stocks are due for a meltup.

“We make the case that despite the Fed’s intent, we’re on the verge of being in a melt-up stage, fueled by excessive credit and a timid Fed,” wrote technical analyst Jeff deGraaf, chairman of Renaissance Macro Research, in a Wednesday note.

Longtime market bull Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James, on Tuesday argued that the S&P 500 SPX, -0.01% in the wake of a Sept. 25 reversal to the upside, “now appears to be involved in a melt-up.”

How melt-ups begin

Others have also attributed recent gains in part to revived optimism over potential corporate tax cuts as the White House and congressional Republicans revive a push for a wide-ranging tax bill.

Whether the market continues to melt up “remains to be seen, but what has happened since a week ago sure resembles how such melt ups begin,” he wrote.

De Graaf, meanwhile, argued that it is the strong data, and what he sees as a behind-the-curve Fed, that is setting the stage for a potential meltup.

He fears that favorable credit conditions are driving asset inflation and points to the gap between the yield on the 2-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD02Y, +0.28% which is near a 10-year high at 1.479%, and the fed-funds rate, which stands at 1% to 1.25%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/28/market- ... -says.html
Market 'melt-up' could push stocks to new records, including an S&P 500 rally of 8%

5 Stocks to Buy As They Drive the Market Melt Up
https://investorplace.com/2017/10/5-sto ... eZWNVtSz3g

buffalo_girl
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Re: 2017-2050 stock market will rise to 50,000

Post by buffalo_girl »

From my perspective...Stock Market investments have nothing to do with long-term productivity, overall health of a nation's economy, and dividends paid to those willing to support 'good ideas'. The Stock Market is a rigged slot machine. The only winners are those with insider information.

What does 50,000 mean anyway? Where's the physical commodity represented by 50,000?

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iWriteStuff
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Re: 2017-2050 stock market will rise to 50,000

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buffalo_girl wrote: October 17th, 2017, 1:30 pm What does 50,000 mean anyway?
It's the true measure of inflation - all the printed fiat or quantitative easing was given to banks and corporations at 0% interest. They have a fiduciary responsibility to make a return on it, so they "invested it" - in their own stocks, bonds, etc. Corporate buybacks and asset buying by the banks/Fed/corporations are what spurred the market rally of the last 7-8 years. All the money got dumped into the market instead of increasing productivity or creating jobs.

Now the Fed is all "Hey, where's the inflation? We dumped all this money into "the economy" and yet inflation isn't showing up!" That's because the only thing purchased with all that free money was...... stocks, bonds, and treasuries. Average Joe is still struggling to stay afloat. Regular measures of inflation include things like rent, food, gas, etc. But that's not where the money went. Rather, it inflated something else.

DOW 50k is only possible if corporations keep giving money to themselves by buying shares of their own companies with money the Fed loans to them at near 0% interest.

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Col. Flagg
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Re: 2017-2050 stock market will rise to 50,000

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The U.S. stock market is one of the biggest frauds in the entire world right now, almost completely supported by the 'Fed'. Why and how would its valuation go from a low of 5,600 back in 2009 to over 22,000 today, a mere 8 years later??? That is almost a 4,000% increase in the Dow or if you wanna break it down, a rise of 41.67% per month since 2009. What spectacular news have we had or seen from the real economy justifying this? The answer is nothing - the Dow has been artificially propped up by the 'Fed' because they can't afford and do do not want asset prices to deflate and come back down to reality with market forces. It's the biggest sucker's rally in history! We've seen the retail sector begin to go up in smoke, bankruptcies increasing, jobs stagnating, corporate profits dwindling and here's the stock market rising and rising as if we're all doing wonderfully with financial bliss and prosperity everywhere when nothing is further from the truth. The 'Fed' itself is running the biggest ponzi scheme ever perpetrated!! Tell me how an entity with a balance sheet of $3.5 trillion (LMAO) doles out $23.5 trillion in bail-outs over a 2 year span? The stock market, 'Fed', Wall Street, big banks, big insurance companies and military-industrial complex have all been involved in some of the most vile evil, fraud and corruption you can imagine going all the way back to 9/11 which was mostly about trying to cover it all up while getting blank checks from the fed gov in bail-outs and for the so-called 'war on terror'. :lol:

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captainfearnot
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Re: 2017-2050 stock market will rise to 50,000

Post by captainfearnot »

DEEPER storm wrote: October 17th, 2017, 9:43 am My prediction for 2017-2050 stock market will rise to 50,000. We are in a 'Melt Up'. A dramatic and unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset class driven partly by a stampede of investors who don't want to miss out on its rise rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy. Gains created by a melt up are considered an unreliable indication of the direction the market is ultimately headed, and melt ups often precede melt downs.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/28/market- ... -says.html
I assume you're talking about the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

An increase from the current 23,000 to 50,000 by 2050 would be quite modest growth indeed. That would be a cumulative return of 117%, barely more than doubling in 33 years. That's about a 2.4% average annual growth. Not a return most people would consider good for equities, especially compared to a long term inflation rate of 3%.

Contrast to the last 33 years. In October 1984 the Dow was at about 1220. In 33 years it has grown to 23,000, or growth of 1,785%. That's about 9.4% average annual growth.

If the next 33-year period mirrors the last one, then the Dow should be at about 400,000 by 2050.

So your prediction is that not only is the current rally unsustainable, but that long-term equities returns are barely going to keep place with inflation?
Last edited by captainfearnot on October 17th, 2017, 2:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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captainfearnot
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Re: 2017-2050 stock market will rise to 50,000

Post by captainfearnot »

Col. Flagg wrote: October 17th, 2017, 1:49 pm The U.S. stock market is one of the biggest frauds in the entire world right now, almost completely supported by the 'Fed'. Why and how would its valuation go from a low of 5,600 back in 2009 to over 22,000 today, a mere 8 years later??? That is almost a 4,000% increase in the Dow or if you wanna break it down, a rise of 41.67% per month since 2009.
Check your math. From 5600 to 22,000 is an increase of 293%. Over 8 years that's 18.6% average annual growth. Yes, that's a lot, about double the annual average return since 1984 that I just figured above, but that's what happens when you cherry-pick the numbers (reaching for the recent local minimum and comparing to the current all-time high). If you picked an arbitrary period, say the last five years, ten years, fifteen, etc. without trying to exploit extreme variances, you'd get a lot more reasonable returns.

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captainfearnot
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Re: 2017-2050 stock market will rise to 50,000

Post by captainfearnot »

buffalo_girl wrote: October 17th, 2017, 1:30 pm The Stock Market is a rigged slot machine. The only winners are those with insider information.
You may be thinking of the commodities market. Foreign currency exchange, options, futures, that kind of thing. Those are zero-sum games. The only way to make money is to take it from someone else (who is also trying to take yours), and the only way to do that reliably and consistently is with insider information.

The stock market is not that. You can passively invest in index funds and reliably achieve the market return over the long term. The aggregate value of profit-seeking companies tends to grow over time, and the equities markets allow you to participate in that growth. Now, if you're talking about beating the stock market—doing better than the 8% or 9% average annual growth of equities (or whatever the expected return is for a particular asset class)—then yes, you'd have to have insider information to do that long term.

Members of Congress consistently do better than the average investor in the stock market because they are able to trade on insider information with impunity. If that's how you define "winning" then yes, the game is rigged. But if you define winning as a positive long-term return, then the game is not rigged, and everyone can win.

buffalo_girl
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Re: 2017-2050 stock market will rise to 50,000

Post by buffalo_girl »

But if you define winning as a positive long-term return, then the game is not rigged, and everyone can win.

Since I'm a financial dyslexic, I do better with flocks and herds.

I often wonder how we would fare if our many 'government' entities would simply stop bleeding us.

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DEEPER storm
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Re: 2017-2050 stock market will rise to 50,000

Post by DEEPER storm »

Sell Gold buy stocks in three weeks the market will rise to 24,000.................

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Col. Flagg
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Re: 2017-2050 stock market will rise to 50,000

Post by Col. Flagg »

captainfearnot wrote: October 17th, 2017, 2:52 pm
Col. Flagg wrote: October 17th, 2017, 1:49 pm The U.S. stock market is one of the biggest frauds in the entire world right now, almost completely supported by the 'Fed'. Why and how would its valuation go from a low of 5,600 back in 2009 to over 22,000 today, a mere 8 years later??? That is almost a 4,000% increase in the Dow or if you wanna break it down, a rise of 41.67% per month since 2009.
Check your math. From 5600 to 22,000 is an increase of 293%. Over 8 years that's 18.6% average annual growth. Yes, that's a lot, about double the annual average return since 1984 that I just figured above, but that's what happens when you cherry-pick the numbers (reaching for the recent local minimum and comparing to the current all-time high). If you picked an arbitrary period, say the last five years, ten years, fifteen, etc. without trying to exploit extreme variances, you'd get a lot more reasonable returns.
Actually, we're both wrong... it's an increase of 3.93 times or almost 400%. I don't know why I indicated 4,000? Doh!

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captainfearnot
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Re: 2017-2050 stock market will rise to 50,000

Post by captainfearnot »

Col. Flagg wrote: October 18th, 2017, 1:17 pm
captainfearnot wrote: October 17th, 2017, 2:52 pm
Col. Flagg wrote: October 17th, 2017, 1:49 pm The U.S. stock market is one of the biggest frauds in the entire world right now, almost completely supported by the 'Fed'. Why and how would its valuation go from a low of 5,600 back in 2009 to over 22,000 today, a mere 8 years later??? That is almost a 4,000% increase in the Dow or if you wanna break it down, a rise of 41.67% per month since 2009.
Check your math. From 5600 to 22,000 is an increase of 293%. Over 8 years that's 18.6% average annual growth. Yes, that's a lot, about double the annual average return since 1984 that I just figured above, but that's what happens when you cherry-pick the numbers (reaching for the recent local minimum and comparing to the current all-time high). If you picked an arbitrary period, say the last five years, ten years, fifteen, etc. without trying to exploit extreme variances, you'd get a lot more reasonable returns.
Actually, we're both wrong... it's an increase of 3.93 times or almost 400%. I don't know why I indicated 4,000? Doh!
You don't just divide 23,000 by 5,600 to get the amount of the increase. That's just the multiple. You have to subtract. 22,000 minus 5,600 is 16,400. That's the increase. Expressed as a percentage of the principal, 16,400 is 293% of 5,600. (Or you can just subtract 100% from the multiple, gets you to the same place. If I end up with 100% of what I started with, my return is 0%. If I end up with twice what I started with, my return is 100%. Etc.)

You further compounded (no pun intended) your error by simply dividing 4000 by 96, the number of months in 8 years, to get a monthly return of 41.67%. That's not how it works. That's how you find an arithmetic mean, but when calculating investment returns you want the geometric mean, because you're dealing with exponential growth. Even starting with the correct cumulative growth amount of 293%, if you just divided by 8 to find the annual average growth you would get 36.63%, which is still way off.

The formula for that is (1 + Cumulative Return)^(1/Time) - 1. So here it would be (1 + 293%)^(1/8) - 1 = .186 or 18.6%. If we wanted the monthly return we would do (1 + 293%)^(1/96) - 1 = .014 or 1.4%.

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JK4Woods
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Re: 2017-2050 stock market will rise to 50,000

Post by JK4Woods »

[/quote]

You could do the exact same thing with the Bank of Japan and the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Or the European Central Bank and the FTSE.

Or the Peoples Bank of China and the.... yeah you get the idea.

Central banks buying everything. Until they don't.
[/quote]

[/quote]

Hey, I hope he's right. But his track record isn't so spectacular.

I'm no perma-bull. I think asset valuations are drastically distorted by central bank monetary policy, namely the ones I mentioned. The question is this: what kind of event could destabilize the economy such that Central Banks can't prop it up with more buying?
[/quote]

All it takes is a month where US Treasury doesn't get buyers for their paper.
Let's say Saudi / Middle Eastern's balk at buying US Treasuries or China decideds to give it to us because of some south china sea saber rattling (or Taiwan incident).

The crash would be quick, and I'm not sure the "circuit-breakers" installed after last time (to slow automated selling) would save the market.

sushi_chef
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Re: 2017-2050 stock market will rise to 50,000

Post by sushi_chef »

this years trading volume increase might indicate their eyes were set zero on around 30000 in short term.

http://grnba.com/iiyama/z/171005w460.jpg
:arrow:

Vision
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Re: 2017-2050 stock market will rise to 50,000

Post by Vision »

It will hit 32000 by 2024.

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DEEPER storm
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Re: 2017-2050 stock market will rise to 50,000

Post by DEEPER storm »

The unstoppable economic forces heading our way that will result in a collapse in gold prices all the way down to $400.oz.

Silver
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Re: 2017-2050 stock market will rise to 50,000

Post by Silver »

DEEPER storm wrote: October 21st, 2017, 7:34 pm The unstoppable economic forces heading our way that will result in a collapse in gold prices all the way down to $400.oz.
I hope you don't mind if I hang on to that little jewel.

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