Who knows about Bitcoin?

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iWriteStuff
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Re: Who knows about Bitcoin?

Post by iWriteStuff »

Isn't Jamie Dimon on the roster for Federal Reserve candidates?
Bitcoin Tumbles After Jamie Dimon Calls It A Fraud: "Would Fire Anyone Trading It"

Surprised by the sudden air pocket below bitcoin? Curious if this was caused by some new, unconfirmed Chinese crackdown on bitcoin traders, exchanges, and other money laundered? No, the answer is Jamie Dimon, who in a angry outburst during the same conference in which he preannounced JPM's 20% trading revenue drop, lashed out at the crypto currency, calling it a fraud, "worse than tulip bulbs", says it "won't end well" and will "eventually blow up", and that "any trader trading bitcoin" will be fired for being stupid.

DIMON: BITCOIN IS A FRAUD
DIMON: BITCOIN IS WORSE THAN TULIP BULBS
DIMON: BITCOIN WILL EVENTUALLY BLOW UP
DIMON: BITCOIN WON'T END WELL
DIMON: WOULD FIRE ANY TRADER TRADING BITCOIN FOR BEING STUPID
But how does Jamie really feel? Of course, if "a trader" bought $100,000 of Bitcoin several years ago, they would now be richer than Jamie, but that's another story.

What is more surprising, is that bitcoin actually reacted to this outburst by the JPM CEO, sliding sharply, and dragging the entire cryptocurrency space with it. Or perhaps not surprising at all as hundreds of volatility-starved JPM traders quietly liquidated their accounts moments after hearing Dimon's threat:

As for Dimon's personal vendetta with the digital currency, one twitter commentator said it best:

BTC bulls: proof that "we" are a threat to the establishment + Gandhi quote
BTC bears: see? https://t.co/e2ZCmjKi3C
— Barbarian Capital (@BarbarianCap) September 12, 2017
In any case, we now have the Dimon bottom in bitcoin too. Let's see how fast until it, too, is filled, metaphorically speaking...
If this is a preview of coming attractions, it doesn't end well at all! He has just announced his intentions if selected to run the FOMC, and I'm sure they are already in agreement.

Silver
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Re: Who knows about Bitcoin?

Post by Silver »

ZH has a lot of BTC articles lately. Cool stuff at the link.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-1 ... government

Bitcoin's Biggest Bull Isn't 'Long Crypto', He's 'Short Government'

Sep 12, 2017 11:22 AM

Six years ago, Kyle Bass provided a crucial context for the debt-laden world of ever-increasing sovereign debt:

"Buying gold is just buying a put against the idiocy of the political cycle. It's That Simple"
And now, as interest in Bitcoin surges, Arthur Hayes, a former CitiGroup trader who runs BitMEX - a Hong Kong-based crypto exchange - asks an interesting question - In the coming war between digital currencies, which side will your money be on?

As CoinDesk reports, Hayes thinks blockchain is lighting a fuse that will ignite open combat between "true cryptocurrencies" (like bitcoin) and a new "digital fiat" controlled by central banks.

These two parallel currency systems are the inevitable outcome of his core investing thesis:

"A digital society needs digital cash."
In other words, bitcoin has brought the world cryptocurrency and institutions of all kinds will use the technology to their advantage.

Here's what Hayes sees shaking out as a result: Governments will respond to the proliferation of cryptocurrency by withdrawing banknotes from circulation, and governments will issue digital fiat that functions similarly to cryptocurrency.

But don't be fooled, according to Hayes, the similarities here are all on the surface.

Government-controlled digital fiat will be the antithesis of absolutely everything true cryptocurrency stands for. Central bank's issuance of digital money will lead to a brave new world where governments are able to monitor and control every single transaction in an economy.

And countering that overreach is the reason Hayes believes bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have a value proposition not just today, but for years to come.

When Hayes talks about digital money, he sees the scope of battle on a truly global scale, not just within the U.S., but all across Europe, in China and in India.

What all these country's governments have in common, according to Hayes, is the desire to use digital fiat as a tool of economic control.

He sees digital fiat as an instrument that will allow governments and global central banks to monitor every financial transaction, tax every sale and even lock out people from the payment system if they don't have the right government-issued licenses.

Shifting digital fiat into cryptocurrency, he reasons, will be the only way to preserve privacy. Plus, cryptocurrency will allow individuals and businesses to trade in jurisdictions where parties don't trust electronic fiat – or each other, for that matter – because they know cryptocurrencies cannot be tampered with.

Hayes said:

"If you want to have a financial presence – and not have somebody else know what you're doing at all times – then you'll use a form of cryptocurrency."
A form of cryptocurrency that's true, like bitcoin, zcash, monero or dash, he says, is one that offers users both privacy and security.

But there may be limits to the value propositions of even true cryptocurrencies today. For example, Hayes sees small value transactions are out of line with a once resounding narrative in the space, that bitcoin is – and should be – a payment system for consumers. Hayes told CoinDesk:

"I don't think bitcoin is going to replace consumer facing activities, like buying a cup of coffee or buying a magazine at a 7-Eleven."
Hayes called bitcoin's user experience "terrible" for these purchases, because public blockchains are slower than private payment systems. So, for a trip to Starbucks, buying coffee with Apple Pay is a better experience than paying with bitcoin, he contends. It's an interesting observation in that many of bitcoin's strongest proponents tend to envision a world where the cryptocurrency is used for everything. Even still, Hayes is just as bullish on bitcoin, as he continues to reiterate what a fantastic mechanism it is for online international payments and anonymity.

And "those trade flows are massive," he said.

Silver
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Re: Who knows about Bitcoin?

Post by Silver »

iWriteStuff wrote: September 12th, 2017, 12:25 pm Isn't Jamie Dimon on the roster for Federal Reserve candidates?
Bitcoin Tumbles After Jamie Dimon Calls It A Fraud: "Would Fire Anyone Trading It"

Surprised by the sudden air pocket below bitcoin? Curious if this was caused by some new, unconfirmed Chinese crackdown on bitcoin traders, exchanges, and other money laundered? No, the answer is Jamie Dimon, who in a angry outburst during the same conference in which he preannounced JPM's 20% trading revenue drop, lashed out at the crypto currency, calling it a fraud, "worse than tulip bulbs", says it "won't end well" and will "eventually blow up", and that "any trader trading bitcoin" will be fired for being stupid.

DIMON: BITCOIN IS A FRAUD
DIMON: BITCOIN IS WORSE THAN TULIP BULBS
DIMON: BITCOIN WILL EVENTUALLY BLOW UP
DIMON: BITCOIN WON'T END WELL
DIMON: WOULD FIRE ANY TRADER TRADING BITCOIN FOR BEING STUPID
But how does Jamie really feel? Of course, if "a trader" bought $100,000 of Bitcoin several years ago, they would now be richer than Jamie, but that's another story.

What is more surprising, is that bitcoin actually reacted to this outburst by the JPM CEO, sliding sharply, and dragging the entire cryptocurrency space with it. Or perhaps not surprising at all as hundreds of volatility-starved JPM traders quietly liquidated their accounts moments after hearing Dimon's threat:

As for Dimon's personal vendetta with the digital currency, one twitter commentator said it best:

BTC bulls: proof that "we" are a threat to the establishment + Gandhi quote
BTC bears: see? https://t.co/e2ZCmjKi3C
— Barbarian Capital (@BarbarianCap) September 12, 2017
In any case, we now have the Dimon bottom in bitcoin too. Let's see how fast until it, too, is filled, metaphorically speaking...
If this is a preview of coming attractions, it doesn't end well at all! He has just announced his intentions if selected to run the FOMC, and I'm sure they are already in agreement.
Hahaha. I guess Dimon wanted to buy in at a lower price.

Churn. Churn. Churn. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4ga_M5Zdn4

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iWriteStuff
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Re: Who knows about Bitcoin?

Post by iWriteStuff »

Silver wrote: September 12th, 2017, 12:32 pm
Hahaha. I guess Dimon wanted to buy in at a lower price.

Churn. Churn. Churn. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4ga_M5Zdn4
It's either that or he's preparing for his job interview with the FOMC! Take your pick :)

And hey, maybe it's both? :shock:

nvr
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Re: Who knows about Bitcoin?

Post by nvr »

Silver wrote: September 12th, 2017, 11:23 am
nvr wrote: September 8th, 2017, 3:22 pm I've shared my background with Bitcoin before, but here's a few thoughts I've had recently after listening to some of the debate given its recent price gains:
It's not really private - a record is kept of every transaction made. If an institution or government had the interest and resources, you and your purchases could be identified from the blockchain.
It's not tangible - the network that recognizes the value relies on power grid to operate and would be useless in aftermath of war / emp attack.
It's not really secure - I had all my bitcoins stolen by malware (or Microsoft engineer) which had somehow found the bitcoin wallet on my pc, grabbed my private key and sent all 24 bitcoins to themselves
This last point was probably more my fault since I didn't encrypt the folder. But compared to precious metals stored inside a building, a bitcoin wallet held by lay users is in general much more vulnerable to virtual theft attempts. The right way to have done it would have been for me to have written down or printed off the private key (paper wallet) or at least stored it on a usb drive disconnected to internet. But then that is not very convenient when desiring to spend it.
I have a question about the highlighted comment, addressed to anyone who knows the answer.

If hackers -- governmental or otherwise -- can expose this sort of information, why hasn't it already happened? Wouldn't there be extreme satisfaction on the part of the hacker in publishing data which shows that John Doe owns $10 million in bitcoins? Even if the hacker couldn't access the coins and could only expose the owner's ID, it seems like that would be a more common event -- common enough that we would hear about it.

I'm sorry to read that you lost your 24 BTC. That would amount to a tidy sum right now. Do you have no intention in trying to mine anything else? A company called NEM issues a currency called XEM which is apparently easier to "harvest."
I sold those graphics cards soon after finding out about my loss (on ebay back when AMD gpu's were still enough to do the job) . I'm kind of turned off to the whole cryptocurrency thing. Any money I'd put there, I'll just use to stack PM's. I think they probably can or will soon figure ways to track accounts especially given their backdoor access to operating systems , the PRISM network etc. On travelling with funds, no one should have the power to ask you how much money you're carrying when travelling - that's a Nazi-ish idiotic law that I would not bother obeying. Bitcoin isn't a very good means to the end to avoid that because it I think can still be used to track users.

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harakim
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Re: Who knows about Bitcoin?

Post by harakim »

Silver wrote: September 12th, 2017, 11:23 am
nvr wrote: September 8th, 2017, 3:22 pm I've shared my background with Bitcoin before, but here's a few thoughts I've had recently after listening to some of the debate given its recent price gains:
It's not really private - a record is kept of every transaction made. If an institution or government had the interest and resources, you and your purchases could be identified from the blockchain.
It's not tangible - the network that recognizes the value relies on power grid to operate and would be useless in aftermath of war / emp attack.
It's not really secure - I had all my bitcoins stolen by malware (or Microsoft engineer) which had somehow found the bitcoin wallet on my pc, grabbed my private key and sent all 24 bitcoins to themselves
This last point was probably more my fault since I didn't encrypt the folder. But compared to precious metals stored inside a building, a bitcoin wallet held by lay users is in general much more vulnerable to virtual theft attempts. The right way to have done it would have been for me to have written down or printed off the private key (paper wallet) or at least stored it on a usb drive disconnected to internet. But then that is not very convenient when desiring to spend it.
I have a question about the highlighted comment, addressed to anyone who knows the answer.

If hackers -- governmental or otherwise -- can expose this sort of information, why hasn't it already happened? Wouldn't there be extreme satisfaction on the part of the hacker in publishing data which shows that John Doe owns $10 million in bitcoins? Even if the hacker couldn't access the coins and could only expose the owner's ID, it seems like that would be a more common event -- common enough that we would hear about it.

I'm sorry to read that you lost your 24 BTC. That would amount to a tidy sum right now. Do you have no intention in trying to mine anything else? A company called NEM issues a currency called XEM which is apparently easier to "harvest."
It would be somewhat difficult for a hacker to identify the owner of a wallet, but pretty straightforward for the government. I am confident there is a database somewhere with your name on that wallet.

davedan
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Re: Who knows about Bitcoin?

Post by davedan »

TPTB wants us used to using and trusting digital currency and credit card points because we will more readily accept being chipped and our currency being loaded on our chips.

We will get "credits" for brushing our teeth, and spend "credits" for each time our fork is lifted with out "internet of things" internet-connected devices ,

Silver
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Re: Who knows about Bitcoin?

Post by Silver »

davedan wrote: September 12th, 2017, 6:29 pm TPTB wants us used to using and trusting digital currency and credit card points because we will more readily accept being chipped and our currency being loaded on our chips.

We will get "credits" for brushing our teeth, and spend "credits" for each time our fork is lifted with out "internet of things" internet-connected devices ,
Kind of like where your treasure is, there will your heart be also. When the time comes, I hope we all have the strength of character and testimony to reject the chip.

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Re: Who knows about Bitcoin?

Post by BeNotDeceived »

davedan wrote: September 12th, 2017, 6:29 pm TPTB wants us used to using and trusting digital currency and credit card points because we will more readily accept being chipped and our currency being loaded on our chips.

We will get "credits" for brushing our teeth, and spend "credits" for each time our fork is lifted with out "internet of things" internet-connected devices ,
Banks will close your accounts, if you do too many crypto conversions. :shock:

Energy has real value, and is not finite, which are good properties upon which to value a currency. A dodecagon has 12 sides; "dec" like decimal, means 10, so "do" represents 2. Two cents is biblical, so maybe 200 cents per Dollar works, with each dollar valued at 200 or 2000 MegaJoules. See my previous post: in lieu of storage, there's certified capacity to produce about energy backed coinage.

Once upon a time, one cent was the common wage for one days work. Joules are a unit of work, which is energy applied over time, so energy backed currencies reflect biblical principle; unitjuggler converts MJs to KWHr, which is the work unit upon which our electric bill is paid.
Last edited by BeNotDeceived on September 12th, 2017, 10:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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harakim
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Re: Who knows about Bitcoin?

Post by harakim »

Silver wrote: September 12th, 2017, 8:02 pm
davedan wrote: September 12th, 2017, 6:29 pm TPTB wants us used to using and trusting digital currency and credit card points because we will more readily accept being chipped and our currency being loaded on our chips.

We will get "credits" for brushing our teeth, and spend "credits" for each time our fork is lifted with out "internet of things" internet-connected devices ,
Kind of like where your treasure is, there will your heart be also. When the time comes, I hope we all have the strength of character and testimony to reject the chip.
It's funny because we all know this great evil is coming and wonder if we'll be strong enough to resist. I think that says something about us. Just when I became sure I would be willing to pass on the chip, I had kids. Obviously, if I know the chip is evil, I will resist. But if it is less certain, it will be really difficult to resist. I know there are many who have passed through this and are steadfast and knowledgeable enough to know when to stand up for something, and I think I will be too. I'll hope God can make it clear what is evil.

Silver
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Re: Who knows about Bitcoin?

Post by Silver »

Lots of bitcoin news -- mostly negative -- good for lowering the price -- if you're buying.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-1 ... -sanctions

Is North Korea Using Bitcoin To Get Around UN Sanctions?


by Tyler Durden
Sep 12, 2017 11:55 PM

The latest round of United Nations sanctions against North Korea are designed specifically to prevent Kim Jong Un from obtaining hard currency. Luckily for the Kim regime, there’s always bitcoin.

According to Bloomberg, the isolated country, facing further restrictions on exports that would bring in desperately needed Chinese yuan, has increasingly been turning to bitcoin to circumvent the sanctions.

And to try and keep the illicit digital money flowing, the country has reportedly stepped up attacks against South Korean digital currency exchanges, causing disruptions in one of the largest markets for digital currencies like Ethereum and bitcoin, according to a new report from security researcher FireEye. In addition, the North has managed to breach an English-language bitcoin news website and collect bitcoin ransom payments from global victims of the malware WannaCry attack (although we thought that one had been linked to China?).



“So far this year, FireEye has confirmed attacks on at least three South Korean exchanges, including one in May that was successful. Around the same time, local media reported that Seoul-based exchange Yapizon lost more than 3,800 bitcoins (worth about $15 million at current rates) due to theft, although FireEye said there are not clear indications of North Korean involvement.”
According to Naeem Aslam, a contributor at Forbes, the North cultivated an “army of hackers” to go after digital-currency exchanges after the digital currency’s world-beating gains piqued Kim Jong Un’s interest.

“North Korea has an army of hackers who are constantly targeting South Korea, the hectic trading hub for cryptocurrency. The strategy would aid the country in bypassing many trade restrictions which also include the new sanctions. Moreover, the massive popularity of the cryptocurrency gained Kim’s attention and for crypto traders, this represents an opportunity. A higher demand for cryptocurrency would only boost its price,” said Forbes contributor Naeem Aslam.”
North Korea’s Reconnaissance General Bureau, which directly reports to Kim Jong Un, handles peacetime cyber operations from espionage to network disruptions and employs an estimated 6,000 officers, according to a 2016 report from the International Cyber Policy Centre at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.



A group within the RGB known as TEMP.Hermit is believed to be responsible for the attacks on the South Korean bitcoin exchanges. FireEye said it has been linked to a 2015 attack on South Korea’s nuclear industry. The hackers have also been tied by other security firms to last year’s attack on Samsung Electronics Co.’s corporate messenger app and the breach of Sony Corp.’s film studio, which the FBI blamed on North Korea.

"They’re pretty capable actors in comparison to other North Korean activity we see,” said Luke McNamara, a researcher at FireEye and author of the new report. "They’ve been creative in how they use their cyber-espionage capability."
And with the US likely to continue to push for still tighter sanctions as the North continues its provocative missile and nuclear tests – that is, until Russia and China finally say “enough” – the isolated country will likely deepen its reliance on the digital currency.

“We definitely see sanctions being a big lever driving this sort of activity,” McNamara said. “They probably see it as a very low-cost solution to bring in hard cash.”

"As more money goes into cryptocurrency exchanges and more people buy bitcoin and ethereum, exchanges become larger targets for this group,” said McNamara. He said so far he did not have evidence that Kim Jong Un’s regime has targeted cryptocurrency exchanges outside of South Korea, but did not rule out the possibility in the future.”
And with so many shadowy digital currency exchanges operating throughout Asia, cashing out the country’s digital currency positions would be easy.

“They could compromise an exchange and transfer those bitcoins to other exchanges elsewhere in Asia or exchange them for a more anonymous cryptocurrency,” said McNamara. “There are variety of things they could do to cash out.”
As Aslam points out, increasing demand for digital currencies from North Korea could ultimately lift prices on a global scale as the country is increasingly forced to transact at in bitcoin, Ethereum and their peers. North Korea isn’t the only country that’s turning to bitcoin out of a sense of desperation. As the Atlantic pointed out earlier this month, thousands of Venezuelans have taken to minería bitcoin – or mining bitcoin – to try and get their hands on precious US dollars.

Because, in some cases, it’s either that, or starvation.

davedan
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Re: Who knows about Bitcoin?

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An implanted chip is not the "mark of the beast". We are all already chipped with our credit cards and cell phones.

The "mark" is the initiations people receive to become part of the global conspiracy (super entity). It is satan's endowment. Most people accept thinking "this is what I got to do to make it" and "I dont believe in satan anyways".

TPTB float the story that the mark is a chip or barcode tatoo, over-interpreting it so that the chip gets accepted. Because proponents can make fun of opponents by saying "these crazy people think a chip under your skin is some crazy mark of satan"

Receiving the "mark" is instant damnation. I dont think virtual currencies are a good idea. They are unconstitutional and support the system of control TPTB are setting up. But your not gonna go to hell if you are chipped.

A chip with medical info and id isnt a bad idea. But the virtual currency system meant to control behavior is.

Silver
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Re: Who knows about Bitcoin?

Post by Silver »

davedan wrote: September 13th, 2017, 12:23 am An implanted chip is not the "mark of the beast". We are all already chipped with our credit cards and cell phones.

The "mark" is the initiations people receive to become part of the global conspiracy (super entity). It is satan's endowment. Most people accept thinking "this is what I got to do to make it" and "I dont believe in satan anyways".

TPTB float the story that the mark is a chip or barcode tatoo, over-interpreting it so that the chip gets accepted. Because proponents can make fun of opponents by saying "these crazy people think a chip under your skin is some crazy mark of satan"

Receiving the "mark" is instant damnation. I dont think virtual currencies are a good idea. They are unconstitutional and support the system of control TPTB are setting up. But your not gonna go to hell if you are chipped.

A chip with medical info and id isnt a bad idea. But the virtual currency system meant to control behavior is.
Have you heard some of the proponents of the various currencies speak of "decentralization" and "transparency" and "fiat?" It seems that at least some of them believe they are in the fight against the central banks and the debt instruments those banks create. I accept the possibility that many of the virtual currency backers could be deceived or are just outright lying. However, it seems as if they are trying to get away from fiat currencies and the resulting slavery.

As for the constitutionality of virtual currencies, that's a big question mark for me. The federal government is restricted from making anything besides gold and silver money. Are individuals prevented by the same verbiage from making something with which to barter for goods?

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iWriteStuff
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Re: Who knows about Bitcoin?

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Just an observation, but there is a distinct correlation between cryptos and PMs. Both seem to go up together, although at vastly different paces. They also go down together. However, the pace of the decline in cryptos is just as fast as their rise:

Here's silver's ~1% drop:
silverdrop.jpg
silverdrop.jpg (48.91 KiB) Viewed 964 times
And here's Bitcoin:
bitcoindrop.jpg
bitcoindrop.jpg (51.04 KiB) Viewed 964 times
So they seem to share that correlation characteristic.... That being said, one of the two is a heckuva lot more volatile. Long range, they're probably both going up, and probably at the same times, but you have to have a strong stomach to handle the swings!

Silver
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Re: Who knows about Bitcoin?

Post by Silver »

Somebody has a lot of confidence in Bitcoin. McAfee may just be talking his book, but he makes a few compelling arguments in this 4 minute 17 second video.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/09/13/j ... -500k.html

Silver
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Re: Who knows about Bitcoin?

Post by Silver »

http://theantimedia.org/jp-morgan-ceo-j ... n-bitcoin/

JP Morgan CEO Exposed for Being “Full of [Dung]” After Calling Bitcoin a Fraud
September 14, 2017 at 6:37 am
Written by Josie Wales

(ANTIMEDIA) New York, NY — Long-time cryptocurrency critic and CEO of JP Morgan Chase Jamie Dimon slammed Bitcoin earlier this week, claiming the digital currency is “a fraud.” He later threatened to fire any JP Morgan traders caught trading in Bitcoin. “I’d fire them in a second. For two reasons: It’s against our rules, and they’re stupid. And both are dangerous,” Dimon said at the Barclay’s Tuesday, spurring a wave of backlash from critics on social media.

Charlie Shrem, founder of BitcoinFoundation.org, pointed out the CEO’s hypocrisy in a tweet that read “Jamie Dimon has had an internal ‘Blockchain Working Group’ for over 2 years at JPMorgan & my friend is on it. Basically, he’s full of [dung].” Additionally, Blockchain Capital Founder Bart Stephens noted the irony of Dimon bashing Bitcoin on the same day the company held a conference on blockchain technology. Add to the fact that JP Morgan Chase has tried to patent an alternative to Bitcoin and been rejected 175 times, and Dimon’s consistent attacks on the cryptocurrency seem to make a lot more sense.

Dimon, who formerly served on the Board of Directors for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, also took a shot at his daughter for investing in the digital currency. “I’m not saying ‘go short Bitcoin and sell $100,000 of Bitcoin before it goes down,” he said. “This is not advice of what to do. My daughter bought Bitcoin, it went up and now she thinks she’s a genius.”

This has led some to speculate that the Wall Street tycoon is intentionally trying to drive down the price of Bitcoin. Whether that’s true or not, it’s hard to ignore the fact that Dimon’s past warnings against the cryptocurrency were typically followed by a significant spike in value.

Silver
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Re: Who knows about Bitcoin?

Post by Silver »

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-1 ... t-jpmorgan

"If You Are A Drug Dealer, A Murderer, Or..." Open An Account At JPMorgan

Sep 14, 2017 3:25 PM
Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

On Tuesday afternoon, Jamie Dimon, the CEO of banking giant JP Morgan, let loose on Bitcoin.

He was speaking at the Barclays Financial Services conference, and when asked whether his bank employs any Bitcoin traders, he responded-

“If we had a trader who traded Bitcoin, I’d fire them in a second,” calling any trader who deals in the cryptocurrency “stupid”.

He went on to say that Bitcoin is a “fraud” and “won’t end well”.

Now, Dimon is a brilliant executive and banker. He knows his stuff. But… fraud? Really?

My dictionary defines fraud as “wrongful or criminal deception intended to result in financial or personal gain.”

That term seems to more aptly describe the banking industry that Dimon represents.

From Wells Fargo’s illegal opening of fake customer accounts to the constant manipulation of interest rates, exchange rates, and asset prices, outright FRAUD is standard practice among big banks.

Dimon also stated that Bitcoin is primarily appealing for criminals– “if you were a drug dealer, a murderer, stuff like that. . .”

Again, this is a totally baseless and confounding statement. 10+ million Bitcoin users are drawn to the cryptocurrency for a multitude of reasons.

For some, the fact that it is decentralized is a major factor. For others, it’s the low transaction cost.

Sending an international wire transfer through the banking system, for example, can take three days and cost $100. With Bitcoin it takes an hour and costs less than a dollar.

Sure, criminals might use Bitcoin. They also use Amazon.com gift cards and government bonds.

Ironically for Jamie Dimon, criminals even use JP Morgan bank accounts to launder their money, considering that the bank has paid BILLIONS in fines over the last few years for failing to detect their customers’ illegal activities.

To be fair, Dimon does raise a valid point about Bitcoin’s (and most major cryptocurrencies’) unbelievable price runups.

Bitcoin is up nearly 4x since the beginning of this year, and nearly 30x over the past four years.

That’s not supposed to happen. And it’s always precarious to buy or speculate in anything that’s at its all-time high.

Speculation is, after all, what’s driving most of this boom.

The original Bitcoin ‘White Paper’ from 2008 described the concept as a “peer-to-peer version of electronic cash” to “allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.”

In other words, Bitcoin was intended to be a medium of exchange for the digital world. Send money. Receive money. Buy things online. E-commerce.

That was a hell of an idea that makes a lot of sense.

But that’s not what Bitcoin is primarily being used for today.

Instead, Bitcoin is a source of speculation– people are buying something they don’t understand based purely on an expectation that the price will increase, at a time when the price is already near a record high.

Clearly such irrational behavior will create wild, violent, emotional price swings.

And that’s exactly what’s been going on over the last year. In fact Bitcoin’s price has fallen more than $1,000 (nearly 25%) just in the last few days.

Again, that’s not supposed to happen… not in an orderly market.

But this is not an orderly market.

There are too many mad speculators who think they’re geniuses for owning Bitcoin despite not knowing a hash from a block… yet they hold a extremists’ fanaticism that their prized asset will go up forever.

That’s ludicrous. Nothing goes up (or down) in a straight line. There will always be booms and busts. And the bigger the boom, the bigger the bust.

The key problem with the Bitcoin price is that it’s so difficult to determine what’s fair value.

Most other assets– stocks, bonds, real estate, etc. can be valued by some objective means.

If I want to buy a 5,000 square foot property that cost $650,000 to build, I at least have some basis of comparison to determine how much I’d be willing to pay.

Similarly, whenever I buy a private company, my analysts and I pour over the financial statements to determine its net asset value and see how much free cashflow the business generates.

Based on this analysis, we can come up with a bid.

Even currencies have certain indicators to determine whether they’re undervalued or overvalued.

The Economist, for example, routinely publishes its Big Mac Index to compare the price of a McDonald’s Big Mac around the world, and hence provide an objective valuation for currencies.

This is just one trivial example; the point is that there are countless ways to analyze various assets.

Bitcoin lacks most of those fundamentals. There’s no Big Mac Index for Bitcoin, no balance sheet or free cash flow.

One fundamental that stands out is “market cap,” i.e. the value of all Bitcoin currently in circulation.

Right now it’s about $60 billion, with a user base of more than 10 million [though a ton of those people are speculators and not real ‘users’].

By comparison the Danish krone currently has a market cap (i.e. M2 money supply) of $205 billion, yet a population of only 6 million people.

Gold has a market cap of roughly $7 trillion, over 100x the size of Bitcoin. And while gold also has no balance sheet or cash flow, it is owned by governments and central banks all over the world.

Whether Dimon likes it or not, Bitcoin is the future.

Our modern monetary system is based on an anachronistic 19th century idea of awarding unelected central bankers totalitarian authority over the money supply.

And our ‘modern’ banking system is a 13th century idea backed by mid-20th century technology.

It’s pretty pathetic, really.

Bitcoin, despite its flaws and mob of speculators, represents the first true advance in financial technology for the Digital Age.

This technology has endless possibilities to disrupt entrenched industries that have been screwing their customers for decades.

That fact alone makes it worth learning about.

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Re: Who knows about Bitcoin?

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I thought this was a pretty interesting read:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoi ... 2017-09-15
Bitcoin needs to be worth $1,000,000 to be a legitimate currency
Think bitcoin is in bubble territory? You ain’t seen nothing yet, says one cryptocurrency expert, who believes its value needs to surge by about 300 times over the next several years to be considered a legitimate currency or risk retreating into obscurity and obsolescence.

Bitcoin, the No. 1 cryptocurrency, has drawn outsize attention over its parabolic rise—and the recent, brutal plunge it has been enduring in recent trade.

Some market participants, however, make the case that despite its roughly 260% year-to-date rise BTCUSD, +7.40% it has to clear a far more stratospheric value hurdle to evolve into a practical form of money alongside fiat units like the U.S. dollar DXY, +0.36% Europe’s euro EURUSD, -0.1172% or British pound GBPUSD, -0.8387%

A single bitcoin was worth about $3,568 in recent trade, off lows of the past few days, according to data site Coindesk.com, amid regulatory headwinds in China and critical comments from Wall Street pros like J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.’s CEO Jamie Dimon.

Still, a bitcoin would need to be worth a stunning $1,000,000 to be a bona fide monetary unit, says Iqbal Gandham, U.K managing director at eToro, a trading platform.

In other words, the digital currency would need to see a 300 fold run-up from its current level. To be sure, Gandham isn’t making a prediction; though he believes the currency has the ability to scale such lofty levels, Gandham thinks that bitcoin needs to climb to such a level to be truly viable as a monetary unit.

To understand why is to understand the tiniest component of bitcoin—the Satoshi. Named after the purported creator of bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto. A Satoshi is equal to 0.00000001 bitcoin.

Put another way, one bitcoin contains 100 million Satoshis.

Satoshi’s value in dollars equated to $0.0000356819 at last check. Gandham argues that a Satoshi needs to be equivalent to a single penny, which it would when one bitcoin is worth $1,000,000.

“It is the Satoshi with which people will buy a cup of coffee,” Gandham told MarketWatch. He said using bitcoin now to purchase goods and services, as one would with dollars, isn’t feasible because bitcoin hasn’t reached the necessary economies of scale.


An actual Satoshi note that is redeemable for real money.
“People don’t use a bar of gold to buy things, they use subdivisions of gold,” he said, saying that using bitcoin now to purchase items is like using a bar of gold to purchase a beverage or a meal.

Gandham also said bitcoin really needs to get to that million-dollar mark in the next few years. Some are already wagering that it will get close: John McAfee, founder of his namesake antivirus software company says bitcoin is headed to the $500,000 level within three years.

“It needs to get there in the next few years if it is really going to work,” Gandham said. “People will only spend the subdivision of bitcoin—and you can only spend the subdivision—if they are of reasonable value,” he said.

Bitcoin has been in the buzzy consciousness of average folks for the better part of the past decade. Created at the height of the financial crisis, it has emerged for some as among the clearest alternatives to government-backed currencies.

Bitcoin bulls argue that much of the modern currency world is a product of a manufactured economy, in which central banks print money to boost economic growth, putting bitcoin and other digital currencies, like Ethereum, in position to be considered on par, if not better than, their fiat counterparts in terms of their economic utility.

Against the backdrop of easy-money policies, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.28% the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.08% and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.15% are all at their highest levels in history, while the 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, +1.20% with prices moving inversely to yields, seeing yields near historic lows.


Jamie Dimon Calls Bitcoin 'a Fraud'
Because bitcoin is decentralized from central banks or governments, individuals can conduct transactions without an intermediary. That is part of the appeal of bitcoin.

What’s more, digital currencies are underpinned by the so-called blockchain, a digital ledger that cannot be altered. For many, the blockchain—the promise of and applications that can run atop these computerized ledgers, such as innovative ways to execute and record stock trades, document loans or track property records—are the most crucial and lucrative aspects of the digital-currency realm.

So far, the ambitions of bitcoin cheerleaders haven’t translated in to a killer application, as Apple Inc.’s AAPL, -0.66% founder Steve Jobs would say. Meanwhile, growing scrutiny over bitcoin activity in China and comments from Dimon, who called the currency a “fraud,” has proved the biggest drag on so-called cybercurrencies.

Vitalik Buterin, the creator of the No. 2 digital currency, Ether on Ethereum’s blockchain, recently sounded warnings about the current hype and rapid rise of digital currencies on financial site Financial Magnates.

“I indeed think that we are in a bubble because all the cryptocurrencies are rising and people have a feeling that they will always continue to rise. A lot of projects are raising more money than what they would be able to in the normal VC market, and sometimes there is no match between the necessity and usefulness of the project and its ability to raise money. Additionally, this market is still young and people still don’t know how to differentiate between projects that will exist in the long term and those that won’t.

If bitcoin, and other digital currencies, can surmount its obstacles, it could take off, says Gandham.

That is because there are finite number of bitcoins that can be digitally mined, as is done by “miners” using powerful computers solving complex problems to create the crypto units and support the blockchain infrastructure.

Only about 21.5 million bitcoins will ever exist, based on its underlying code. It is estimated that about 16 million bitcoins have been mined so far, with only a portion of those in current circulation. Market participants also estimate that bitcoins will max out in 2141, about 124 years from now.

That is a relatively tiny number of bitcoins for a currency with ambitions of being a global currency. That is also why the value of Satoshis carry such significance. By comparison, there are approximately 1.56 trillion Federal Reserve notes in circulation as of July 12, according to the Federal Reserve. There are about $13.6 trillion dollars in circulation, according to the Fed, as of August 2017.

While bitcoin cannot be increased once developers and miners hit the limit, Gandham says, subdivisions can be increased to, say, a conversion rate of 500,000,000 Satoshis to every one bitcoin, for example, greatly expanding the supply of Satoshis.

That level of growth may help smooth out bitcoin trading, and perhaps make it less volatile on a day-to-day and intraday basis.

“If bitcoin is at a million dollars the day-to-day valuation change will be insignificant to the actual value,” Gandham said.
If we get to this point where the value of crypto currencies is adaptable to daily use, then it becomes a lot more practical. Until then, it's got a long way to climb and needs to add utility by being accepted at more retail locations.

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Re: Who knows about Bitcoin?

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Aaaaand here's a list of companies that accept Bitcoin:

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@steemitgui ... currencies

Not all inclusive, I believe, but certainly interesting.

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Re: Who knows about Bitcoin?

Post by Silver »

Some perspective on Jamie Dimon's rantings the other day.

Interesting article and other visuals at: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/explaini ... -cfa-caia/
Jamies Bitcoin.png
Jamies Bitcoin.png (151.11 KiB) Viewed 858 times

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Re: Who knows about Bitcoin?

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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-2 ... riced-7200

Hyperbitcoinization? Bitcoin Trades At 85% Premium In Zimbabwe - Priced At $7,200

by Tyler Durden
Sep 27, 2017 1:57 PM

While bond notes were put forward as a panacea to diminish the flight of wealth from Zimbabwe... (as Steve Hanke noted, it was not)...

The most recent attempt by the government to increase liquidity (the money supply, measured broadly) was the introduction of bond notes in November 2016. Incidentally, in conversations I had with Dr. Kupukile Mlambo, Deputy Governor of the RBZ, in May of 2016, I strongly opposed the introduction of bond notes, indicating that they were inconsistent with orthodox dollarization and would result in a complete disaster.

Although bond coins existed on a small scale since December 2014, the introduction of bond notes was significant. These notes were “backed” by a $200m facility from the African Import Export Bank (Afreximbank) -- a bank that some allege is unusually close to the Zimbabwean government. Among other things, it has still failed to publish official documents regarding the bond note facility. The uncertainty surrounding these bond notes has resulted in a black market for dollars, where the bond notes normally trade at discounts ranging from 5-15%. Not surprisingly, banks have attempted to remove these notes from their books, with bank officials reportedly engaging in black market deals for large cash sums at over 20% discounts!

As for what the bonds might eventually be worth, it is prudent to assume that they will be defaulted on. In that case, and taking other African sovereign defaults as a guide, one is left to conclude that the bonds in default would fetch 5-18¢ on the dollar. So, bond notes, which are products of Zimbabwe’s monetary mischief, are in a death spiral that will witness further significant declines in value. In that event, discounts on other elements of the New ZimDollar would also realize massive discounts. The NZD would become worthless, and with that, inflation would raise its ugly head.

Zimbabwe has once again engaged in a fraud on the public, creating a monetary mess and hardship.
We noted in June that the cash crisis continued unabated.

Those awaiting cash transfers at a bank may wait a month to be cleared and, even then, the transfer may be refused.

The Standard, Zimbabwe’s leading Sunday newspaper, ran an article at the time entitled, “Black market thrives, as banks run dry.”

Some highlights from that article:

HARARE’S Road Port has become the unofficial bank of last resort, never short of cash, no queues and a multicurrency platform. The money market at this busy bus terminus now plays the role that the formal banking sector has failed. It is effectively making a mockery of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ).

This points to the nature of black markets. They thrive based upon fulfilling an existing need, not upon government control. They therefore replace whatever services the official market fails to provide.

“Top government officials, supermarket owners and service stations were behind the thriving black market, which is never short of cash.”
And now it appears many Zimbabweans have found an alternate way to store/transfer wealth away from Mugabe's prying (and confiscatory) eyes.

As CoinTelegraph reports, as the country appears to be headed toward another bout of hyperinflation,citizens are turning to dollars and Bitcoin.

The use of Bitcoin in Zimbabwe has grown exponentially as the government has begun to stop all credit card payments and has restricted the flow of cash into and out of the country.

People wishing to make payments for vehicles have been forced to use Bitcoin and car lenders are happy to accept.

In all the chaos, the price of Bitcoin on the local exchange, BitcoinFundi, has soared to $7,200.

This premium reflects a frantic desire to find ways to transact within an economy where government controls have made traditional means impossible.


image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

As TechZim reports, as ‘hard currency’ disappears from the street, the demand for alternative payment options such as bitcoin will but increase, resulting in the rate increasing further.

Those that are using BTC as a means of sending money back to Zimbabwe will be excited with this rate, not only smiling all the way to the bank but back from it too...

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Re: Who knows about Bitcoin?

Post by Silver »

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-2 ... real-fraud

Macquarie Lashes Out At Dimon: "Modern Finance", Not Bitcoin, Is The Real Fraud

by Tyler Durden
Sep 28, 2017 2:23 PM

While the establishment including various central banks, China (which has a "modest" capital flight problem), commercial banks such as JPM and especially its CEO Jamie Dimon who called Bitcoin a 'fraud" similar to the tulip bubble of the 17th century, have come out as harsh opponents of cryptocurrencies, some notable "minority oppinions" have emerged in recent days, such as Morgan Stanley's CEO, James Gorman, who yesterday suggested that Dimon is wrong and that "Bitcoin is certainly more than a fad... the concept of an anonymous currency is an interesting concept."

However, the harshest criticism of Jamie Dimon's takedown of bitcoin came from Macquarie's head of AsiaPac equity strategy, Viktor Shvets who this morning said that it's not bitcoin that's the bubble- or fraud - but the entire modern financial system, which is 4x-5x bigger than the underlying economies, to wit:

When a number of financial executives recently described Bitcoin as a “fraud” akin to the tulip mania, it exhibited their apparent lack of appreciation of fundamental shifts that are altering global monetary and financial systems. If one describes Bitcoin as a fraud, how would one describe a ‘financial cloud’ that is at least 4x-5x larger than the underlying economies? It is unlikely that US$400 trillion+ of financial instruments circulating around the world would ever be repaid and most are now backed by assets that are already either worthless or are diminishing in value. How does one describe rates and the yield curve that are either directly determined by CBs (BoJ or PBoC) or heavily influenced by them (Fed or ECB)?

The following chart summarizes Shvets's concern: some $500 trillion in global financial assets including shadow banking, or roughly 500% global GDP.


As a result of this unprecedented financialization bubble, which is the true systemic fraud, "cryptocurrencies remain a tiny niche, but as in the case of tulips, they are a symptom of a deeply seated disease. They represent a desperate search for alternatives to the above potential "train wreck."

While we maintain that despite presence of US$7.5 trillion of excess reserves (amongst G4+Swiss central banks), global deflationary pressures are so strong that break-out of inflationary pressures is unlikely. However, if public sectors continue to insist on suppressing business/capital market cycles, then some form of full credit market nationalization and/or currency debasement becomes inevitable.
Hence, cryptocurrencies.

Shvets' then gives some advice to the Dimons of the world: "people living in glass houses should not throw stones" and explains what is really happening: like gold, bitcoin has emerged as an insurance policy to the insanity unleashed by a reeling, establihsment political system and central bankers determined to preserve the status quo at all costs, who "instead of repudiation of debts, deleveraging and clearance of past excesses", have encouraged the opposite, namely "accelerated leveraging and avoidance of debt repudiation and clearance." As a result, setbacks have been relatively mild, and "we have not experienced a Kondratieff winter since 1930s"... so far.

Shvets also warns that "there is always a price to pay for deliberate and long-term suppression of cycles, and that is subsequent recoveries (both real GDP and inflation) get progressively weaker" and adds that "eventually, gravity would take control, and it would be impossible to generate positive outcomes, as deflation takes control. However, it is not clear to us whether we are close to such a ‘black hole’. Our working assumption is that we would require a significant further jolt to the system to push us closer to the ‘black hole’ and force coalescence around far more robust policies, such as a merger of fiscal and monetary policies, minimum income guarantees, etc. This is where gold and cryptocurrencies come in. Both are outside the system, and offer an exposure to what can be effectively described as an insurance policy."

Shvets also admits that while cryptocurrencies are not yet money based on the conventional definition of being both "a store of value and a reliable and stable medium of exchange", he notes that "the big difference between today’s cryptocurrencies and (say tulips) is that even though Bitcoin price could be reflecting extreme speculation, it is built on a durable technology that is likely to continue to evolve and strengthen, and although governments might try to restrict and ban it, ultimately technology is going to win."

Hence, the challenge facing central banks is that although cryptocurrencies are today a tiny portion of the overall money pool, the nature of monetary economy is rapidly changing and central banks would have no choice but to adjust. Consumers and businesses would ultimately carry wallets consisting of different types of sovereign and cryptocurrencies, while transactions would be increasingly conducted via new technology channels (such as block chain).
Summarizing his retort to Jamie Dimon, and echoing what Mike Novogratz said earlier this week, Shvets asks rhetorically "Is there a role for cryptocurrencies and gold in investment portfolios?" and answers "Absolutely" because as explained above, these are nothing more than insurance policies against degrading of fiat currencies. However, for now, he says that the "US$ remains the king and until changes to the monetary system become more pronounced (cryptocurrencies account for ~0.5% of cash in circulation), economies would continue to reside on a de-facto US$ standard."

Which then brings us to the real $500 trillion question: "whether in this new environment, would the US$ be dethroned as the key linchpin of the global trade and finance?"

And, as Shvets explains in his full note below, it is every investor's own answer to that question, that provides the justification whether to buy - or stay away from - cryptocurrencies.

* * *

From Macquarie Capital's Viktor Shvets

About cryptocurrencies and tulips

“Bitcoin is a sort of tulip… it is an instrument of speculation but certainly not a currency and we don’t see it as a threat to central bank policy.”
- Vitor Constancio, ECB Vice President, September 2017

“You can’t have a business where people can invent a currency out of thin air… it is fraud and worse than tulips bulbs.”
- Jamie Dimon, CEO JP Morgan, September 2017

Are cryptocurrencies new tulips?

The world today has more than one thousand cryptocurrencies and both their number and market capitalization has proliferated at an astounding speed. For example, in June 2016, the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies was ~US$16bn (and over 80% was represented by Bitcoin). Today, market capitalization is in excess of US$160bn, and Bitcoin’s market share is only around 40%-45%. It was this rapid ascension that prompted the above-quoted references to tulip bubble in 17th century Holland. It is interesting that both Constancio of ECB and Dimon of JP Morgan referred to one of the most famous bubbles, without explaining why tulip mania originated in the first place.



The same forces that created early 17th century asset inflation are powering…

Most scholars today agree that it was rapid expansion of flow of bullion into Amsterdam (which in the early part of 17th century was the key centre of European trade and finance) that created a feverish boom, ending with the collapse of the tulip mania in 1637. The large increase in silver flows from the New World between 1570 and 1630s (shipments more than doubled), currency debasements by various states across Europe to pay for the Thirty-Year War and many other wars that raged in the first half of the 17th century, when combined with Amsterdam’s standing as a safe and reliable depository of money, had significantly increased Dutch money supply. Although at the time there were no reliable monetary statistics, several indicators suggest a substantial rise in liquidity. For example, mint output rose from 9m guilders in 1630-32 to 17m guilders in 1633-35 and ballooned to 23m guilders at the peak of Tulip mania in 1636-38, falling back to 11m guilders in 1639-1641. Similarly, deposits at the Bank of Amsterdam rose from 3.6m guilders in 1632 to 5.7m guilders in 1637.

Indeed, it was a continent-wide phenomenon, with supply of the New World silver and demographic bulge, led to price rises for most commodities and not just tulips (from corn, wheat, meat to firewood). It had become known as the great inflationary pulse of late 16thearly 17th centuries. As today, it was a world of declining real wages and rapidly rising income and wealth inequalities. In Amsterdam, this inflationary pulse was aggravated by the new financial innovations, including establishment of the world’s first futures and options clubs in 1609. These clubs (mostly well-managed for professionals) encouraged reckless zero-margin financing for tulips and other commodities, which gradually sucked in an increasing number of participants, who were not professional tulip growers. The rest is history.

In some ways it is not dissimilar to the sub-prime crisis in 2008 or the dotcom bubble in 1999- 2001. Rising liquidity and loose standards always lead to bubbles. As Douglass North once remarked, “In a society that rewards pirate skills, such skills would proliferate.” Adapting that for today’s world, in a society that encourages financial speculation and financialization of underlying economies, rolling bubbles are the inevitable by-product, and as Gresham’s Law says, “Bad money drives out good.” In the case of 17th century Holland, any high-quality gold coins were immediately reminted into their poorer cousins. Today, systematic currency debasements drive wealth into alternative currencies and other means of safeguarding value, be they land holdings, fine wines or cryptocurrencies.

…alternative asset classes from Bitcoins to fine wines and gold

As the global economy embarked on a three-decade-long quest for stability at a time of stagnant productivity and declining returns on conventional labour, the stock of ‘money’ has expanded as dramatically as anything that had been experienced during late 16th-early 17th centuries. If we examine G4 economies (i.e. US, Eurozone, UK and Japan), the stock of narrow money expanded from 100 in 1996 to 380 as at June 2017, while nominal GDP has only expanded to 190. Today, the world’s narrow money supply (M1 – notes, coins and shortterm demand deposits) approximates US$33 trillion, while broader money supply (M2) is ~US$85 trillion and the value of all outstanding financial instruments (equities, sovereign and corporate bond markets, lending, shadow banking and repo markets) is around US$400 trillion or ~4x-5x global GDP. At the same time, G4 plus Switzerland CBs’ balance sheet exploded over the last decade from a run rate of US$2-3 trillion to almost US$16 trillion.



In this context, cryptocurrencies remain a tiny niche, but as in the case of tulips, they are a symptom of a deeply seated disease. They represent a desperate search for alternatives to the above potential ‘train wreck’. While we maintain that despite presence of US$7.5 trillion of excess reserves (amongst G4+Swiss central banks), global deflationary pressures are so strong that break-out of inflationary pressures is unlikely. However, if public sectors continue to insist on suppressing business/capital market cycles, then some form of full credit market nationalization and/or currency debasement becomes inevitable. Hence, cryptocurrencies.

Unlike Holland of 1637, when the state was quite prepared to inflict pain by closing open futures and option contract positions, and thus quickly deflating the bubble, it is highly doubtful that today’s regulators would ever be prepared to embark on such a drastic action. As outlined in our recent review of the Kondratieff cycles (here), governments have been in the business of micro-managing economies and liquidity for at least three decades (certainly since Paul Volcker’s days). Instead of repudiation of debts, deleveraging and clearance of past excesses, central banks and politics encouraged accelerated leveraging and avoidance of debt repudiation and clearance. As a result, setbacks were relatively mild, and we have not experienced a Kondratieff winter since 1930s. However, as described in our note, there is always a price to pay for deliberate and long-term suppression of cycles, and that is subsequent recoveries (both real GDP and inflation) get progressively weaker. Eventually, gravity would take control, and it would be impossible to generate positive outcomes, as deflation takes control. However, it is not clear to us whether we are close to such a ‘black hole’. Our working assumption is that we would require a significant further jolt to the system to push us closer to the ‘black hole’ and force coalescence around far more robust policies, such as a merger of fiscal and monetary policies, minimum income guarantees, etc.

This is where gold and cryptocurrencies come in. Both are outside the system, and offer an exposure to what can be effectively described as an insurance policy.

While cryptocurrencies are not yet stores of value or proper mediums of exchange, they…

While we do not pretend to be experts on Bitcoin or other multiple variations of cryptocurrencies (which use different software), the essential point about all of them is that they provide relatively secure and divisible means of transacting that is borderless, with predictable and decentralized supply. Although the above quotes indicate that senior financial executives believe that Bitcoin is a fraud, the reverse in many ways is true, as it is in fact a highly transparent system, with every transaction that has ever taken place recorded on the database (block chain), which is visible to all and every entry is permanent. The entire business case is built around mathematics rather than fraud. However, it is also true that it can be hacked (think of Mt Gox) and it has evolved into one of the key avenues that turbocharges potentially fraudulent and illegal transactions (think of Silk Road). But it is only natural, as criminals have a much higher than average tolerance to risk (an occupational hazard, so to speak), and hence they tend to be the first on the scene. Eventually, many of the custody and safety issues associated with cryptocurrencies would be resolved (or at least sufficiently blunted) to engender greater confidence.

…represent insurance policy against fiat currencies and proliferation of different transaction technologies

The essence of money is that it has to be accepted as a store of value and a reliable and stable medium of exchange. Cryptocurrencies at the current juncture do not satisfy either of these conditions. The massive booms and busts that Bit coin has experienced over the last three-to-four years is indicative of speculation rather than store of value. Similarly, there are few centres where cryptocurrencies can be today exchanged for actual services. In that respect, Vitor Constancio is correct that cryptocurrencies are not yet proper currencies. However, it is equally disingenuous to argue that US$ or Euro inherently have an underlying value. Being nothing more than fiat currencies, these are not backed by anything that is valuable, other than the prestige of and confidence in the state and the governments that issue that currency. As multiple examples from the past illustrate, the governments can and regularly do debase this privilege. It is during these times that alternatives—be they tulips, gold, antique cars, Bitcoin or seashells—spring up. If the governments ban Bitcoin from circulating within sovereign territory or attempt to over-regulate it, it is likely that money would simply shift to another assets (principally gold and precious metals) and if these are restricted (a la the US government ban on gold in 1930s-60s), then other assets would take its place.

However, the big difference between today’s cryptocurrencies and (say tulips) is that even though Bitcoin price could be reflecting extreme speculation, it is built on a durable technology that is likely to continue to evolve and strengthen, and although governments might try to restrict and ban it, ultimately technology is going to win. Hence, the challenge facing central banks is that although cryptocurrencies are today a tiny portion of the overall money pool, the nature of monetary economy is rapidly changing and central banks would have no choice but to adjust. Consumers and businesses would ultimately carry wallets consisting of different types of sovereign and cryptocurrencies, while transactions would be increasingly conducted via new technology channels (such as block chain).

The key question is whether in this new environment, would the US$ be dethroned as the key linchpin of the global trade and finance?

Silver
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Re: Who knows about Bitcoin?

Post by Silver »

Do you know Edward Snowden?

https://www.coindesk.com/edward-snowden ... ternative/

Edward Snowden: Zcash Is 'Most Interesting Bitcoin Alternative'
Sep 29, 2017 at 13:30 UTC by Rachel Rose O'Leary

Noted whistleblower Edward Snowden has come out in support of the privacy-oriented cryptocurrency zcash, calling it the "most interesting alternative" to bitcoin.

Writing in response to a tweet from technologist Mason Borda which read: "Zcash is the only altcoin (that i know of) designed and built by professional and academic cryptographers. Hard to ignore," Snowden replied, "Agree."

He continued:

"Zcash's privacy tech makes it the most interesting Bitcoin alternative. Bitcoin is great, but "if it's not private, it's not safe.'"

Snowden is a prominent privacy advocate and is most well known for his massive leak of classified NSA documents in 2013. Asked for his thoughts on monero, a competing private currency, Snowden said it was "amateur crypto" and pointed to traceability issues within the tech.

Snowden said that such design errors could put fellow whistleblowers at risk, stating: "Mistakes happen and have huge consequences for people like me."

The statements fed into the existing rivalry between the competing currencies. In the resulting flood of Twitter responses, Monero developer Richard Spagni strongly defended his project's technology, while the creator of litecoin, Charlie Lee, stated: “I own Monero but not Zcash”.

Zcash and monero are both geared towards providing privacy for their users, but use different tools to – arguably it seems – achieve the same end result.

While zcash is based on a cryptographic operation called zk-snarks, monero works by obfuscating information with ring signatures and stealth addresses.

Silver
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Re: Who knows about Bitcoin?

Post by Silver »

A developer who is training people about Blockchain technology: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-2 ... oins-value

Bitcoin Core Developer Explains Bitcoin's Value

Sep 29, 2017 7:20 PM

Authored by Valentin Schmid via The Epoch Times,

Jimmy Song has 20 years experience as a software developer. So it’s easy to imagine that he took an interest in Bitcoin from the technology angle.

However, Jimmy first got interested in Bitcoin as a store of value and sound money, and only later started to contribute to the Bitcoin core development team and to train new developers for the technology.

The Epoch Times spoke to Jimmy Song about why Bitcoin is sound money, where its value comes from, and how it compares to the other cryptocurrencies.

The code provides the basis for Bitcoin as a store of value but it's the people behind it which keep it going...

Epoch Times: How did you first get interested in Bitcoin?

Jimmy Song: When I first read about it, Bitcoin had broken $1, and I wondered: what is Bitcoin? I’ve never heard of this thing, and why is it important that it broke a dollar? How can a Bitcoin have a dollar? I looked into it. I read about it. I read as much as I could and I discovered that it had this twenty-one million Bitcoin limit.

This is something where you can’t make more of it, and that was the big draw for me. I mean, there’s a medium of exchange component that was pretty interesting too. You could send money to Africa in ten minutes without anything complicated like the Western Union, but having the store of value property was far more interesting to me.

You’re not going to be able to inflate it in any way. Bitcoin is sound money because there is a fixed supply limit and demand is always increasing. That creates a really good investment, at least from my perspective, and so I bought some at around $30. I do wish I bought a lot more but everybody in Bitcoin does.

Epoch Times: Later you started programming for several Bitcoin projects, and now you contribute to the core development team. Please tell us why you believe in Bitcoin as a network.

Mr. Song: The big thing that appeals to me now is its anti-fragility. Nassim Taleb talks about anti-fragility in his book ‘Antifragile,’ but basically, Bitcoin gains from disorder and that’s what I’ve noticed. Why does it keep going up when there’s crazy things happening to it and especially with regard to this recent hard for with Bitcoin Cash?

I thought about it and upon reflection, I’ve come to the conclusion that the reason is: Bitcoin is being immunized against attack. It’s growing from disorder because there are actual people who are going out there and changing parts of the ecosystem. You can be a core developer, you could be a wallet developer, or you could be an exchange developer, you can be a merchant developer or a processor developer. Whatever it is, they’re all sort of working to make their part of the ecosystem better so that they can withstand these attacks and as a result, Bitcoin becomes a better store of value. Right? The more immunity it has to attack, the more secure it is, the better a store of value it becomes.

Things like the Bitcoin software just aren’t smart enough to handle stuff like that. It has to be people that actually fix it and that’s what I think gives Bitcoin a lot of security value — because you have all these people watching it and not just like computer software that’s running on its own. It’s developers, it’s the people that are actually checking the code or watching the network figuring out low probability scenarios and how to immunize against those. That’s what gives it value. That’s what gives us security. That’s what makes it a great store of value.

Epoch Times: According to you, the quality of the development team directly influences the value of the cryptocurrency.

Mr. Song: If you look at the different market capitalizations of cryptocurrencies, the quality of the developers and the price tends to be somewhat correlated. So Bitcoin is obviously the biggest and has the most developers, it’s number one and the second is Ethereum and number three right now is Bitcoin Cash.

That makes sense because it’s the developers that give any coin or ecosystem the antifragile quality. Right? They’re the ones that can react to attacks on the network. They’re the ones that can fix various things whereas, like coins that have gone down in value, their developers have abandoned it or they’ve since moved on to other things or aren’t very good. I don’t know if a correlation is necessarily causation but the fact that developers give the network security and the security gives it a store of value and that in turn gives it a higher price, that makes sense to me.

Epoch Times: Another important point for cryptocurrencies is the decentralization. They need to be decentralized, otherwise one could just use a centrally managed currency like the U.S. dollar. Would you say Bitcoin is the most decentralized of them all?

Mr. Song: I would say so. There’s a lot of different implementations of Bitcoin. There’s a lot of different nodes and software and wallets. There are all kinds of wallets on the Bitcoin network. You have exchanges, you have this whole infrastructure that’s very motivated to make it good and it’s definitely more decentralized than say Ethereum or, Bitcoin Cash or any of these other ones. A lot of them have foundations or a group of developers who run the show.

If you look at something like the DAO hack of the Ethereum network. They said, this is what we’re going to do and it was decreed by Vitalik Buterin and they had a hard fork, completely reversing the hack. That may be good for whatever they’re trying to do but that’s not decentralized.

Ethereum is not sound money for a lot of reasons, but that that’s one of the reasons that it would disqualify, it is that there’s a central person that you can go to and appeal to and say, “let’s make another a hundred million Ethereum right now.” Ripple suffers from the same problem. They have this huge storage of ripples that they can release to the market at any point.

If you have an authoritarian governance model, I don’t really see that as very secure sound, whereas with Bitcoin, it’s very decentralized. I mean, nobody would go along with raising of the twenty-one million limit and things of that nature. In that way, I see Bitcoin as more secure than all these other coins because there is no single point of failure. I think one of the best things that the founder, Satoshi Nakamoti, did was disappear because that took away sort of that authoritarian voice that he would have naturally had. And people still appeal to Satoshi all the time but, in a sense, his disappearance kind of led to the decentralization that we see today.

Epoch Times: Because you believe developers are so important for Bitcoin, you have recently started a training program with which you hope to alleviate some of the shortages.

Mr. Song: Developers are at the heart of what Bitcoin is. I recognize that almost every company is trying to hire ten big block-chain engineers or Bitcoin engineers and there’s a very, very small supply. The software developers that got into Bitcoin early enough are really rich so they don’t really need to work, or they started their own companies or they’re part of another company and they’re very happy already because their companies are very motivated to keep them happy.

I decided the way to fill that gap is just to train more people, and I do have some background in doing that. So I started the company Programming Blockchain, and I started recently with the first two-day seminar where I teach everything. I feel this is a win for everybody. It’s a win for the students because they can have a much more lucrative career in blockchain engineering or Bitcoin engineering.

It’s obviously good for the industry because they’re getting more Bitcoin developers, and this is big needs area for pretty much every company. It’s obviously good for me because this is something that I like to do. I feel like it’s contributing and also I’m making money. So win, win, win, and that’s the direction I want to go.

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Re: Who knows about Bitcoin?

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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-0 ... above-4400

IMF Head Foresees The End Of Banking As Bitcoin Surges Above $4400


Oct 2, 2017 10:56 AM

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Foundation for Economic Education,

In a remarkably frank talk at a Bank of England conference, the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund has speculated that Bitcoin and cryptocurrency have as much of a future as the Internet itself.

It could displace central banks, conventional banking, and challenge the monopoly of national monies.

Christine Lagarde–a Paris native who has held her position at the IMF since 2011–says the only substantial problems with existing cryptocurrency are fixable over time.

In the long run, the technology itself can replace national monies, conventional financial intermediation, and even "puts a question mark on the fractional banking model we know today."

In a lecture that chastised her colleagues for failing to embrace the future, she warned that "Not so long ago, some experts argued that personal computers would never be adopted, and that tablets would only be used as expensive coffee trays. So I think it may not be wise to dismiss virtual currencies."

Here are the relevant parts of her paper:

Let us start with virtual currencies. To be clear, this is not about digital payments in existing currencies—through Paypal and other “e-money” providers such as Alipay in China, or M-Pesa in Kenya.

Virtual currencies are in a different category, because they provide their own unit of account and payment systems. These systems allow for peer-to-peer transactions without central clearinghouses, without central banks.

For now, virtual currencies such as Bitcoin pose little or no challenge to the existing order of fiat currencies and central banks. Why? Because they are too volatile, too risky, too energy intensive, and because the underlying technologies are not yet scalable. Many are too opaque for regulators; and some have been hacked.

But many of these are technological challenges that could be addressed over time. Not so long ago, some experts argued that personal computers would never be adopted, and that tablets would only be used as expensive coffee trays. So I think it may not be wise to dismiss virtual currencies.

Better value for money?
For instance, think of countries with weak institutions and unstable national currencies. Instead of adopting the currency of another country—such as the U.S. dollar—some of these economies might see a growing use of virtual currencies. Call it dollarization 2.0.

IMF experience shows that there is a tipping point beyond which coordination around a new currency is exponential. In the Seychelles, for example, dollarization jumped from 20 percent in 2006 to 60 percent in 2008.

And yet, why might citizens hold virtual currencies rather than physical dollars, euros, or sterling? Because it may one day be easier and safer than obtaining paper bills, especially in remote regions. And because virtual currencies could actually become more stable.

For instance, they could be issued one-for-one for dollars, or a stable basket of currencies. Issuance could be fully transparent, governed by a credible, pre-defined rule, an algorithm that can be monitored…or even a “smart rule” that might reflect changing macroeconomic circumstances.

So in many ways, virtual currencies might just give existing currencies and monetary policy a run for their money. The best response by central bankers is to continue running effective monetary policy, while being open to fresh ideas and new demands, as economies evolve.

Better payment services?
For example, consider the growing demand for new payment services in countries where the shared, decentralized service economy is taking off.

This is an economy rooted in peer-to-peer transactions, in frequent, small-value payments, often across borders.

Four dollars for gardening tips from a lady in New Zealand, three euros for an expert translation of a Japanese poem, and 80 pence for a virtual rendering of historic Fleet Street: these payments can be made with credit cards and other forms of e-money. But the charges are relatively high for small-value transactions, especially across borders.

Instead, citizens may one day prefer virtual currencies, since they potentially offer the same cost and convenience as cash—no settlement risks, no clearing delays, no central registration, no intermediary to check accounts and identities. If privately issued virtual currencies remain risky and unstable, citizens may even call on central banks to provide digital forms of legal tender.

So, when the new service economy comes knocking on the Bank of England’s door, will you welcome it inside? Offer it tea—and financial liquidity?

New models of financial intermediation
This brings us to the second leg of our pod journey—new models of financial intermediation.

One possibility is the break-up, or unbundling, of banking services. In the future, we might keep minimal balances for payment services on electronic wallets.

The remaining balances may be kept in mutual funds, or invested in peer-to-peer lending platforms with an edge in big data and artificial intelligence for automatic credit scoring.

This is a world of six-month product development cycles and constant updates, primarily of software, with a huge premium on simple user-interfaces and trusted security. A world where data is king. A world of many new players without imposing branch offices.

Some would argue that this puts a question mark on the fractional banking model we know today, if there are fewer bank deposits and money flows into the economy through new channels.

How would monetary policy be set in this context?
Today’s central banks typically affect asset prices through primary dealers, or big banks, to which they provide liquidity at fixed prices—so-called open-market operations. But if these banks were to become less relevant in the new financial world, and demand for central bank balances were to diminish, could monetary policy transmission remain as effective?

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