EARTHQUAKES!

[AGalagaChiasmuscaptain of 100]

Interestingly (or not) I had a long dream last night about a big earthquake in the Salt Lake valley and there was a lot of liquifaction, in that a lot of the valley was filled with water. I'm not saying this means anything...just that I dreamed it three times and it seemed like it went on and on. The thing that stuck with me, though was that I needed to store more water.

That's fascinating. My f-i-l was over and we were discussing earthquakes in Utah. I said that geologists were expecting the Big One for Utah soon. He smirked and said they've been saying that for 50 years. (He lived in Sandy in the 70s and 80s). It's just a matter of preparation now. Kind of like the Second Coming. We've known for 2000 years Christ will return. People just get complacent.

ALSO: Geologists say there is a 10% chance the M5.6 in NORTHERN CALIFORNIA was a foreshock, and if that's the case the main shock will occur 24 to 72 hours afterward. Watch out...

[AshleyBcaptain of 1,000]

I had ANOTHER dream about tornadoes the night before last. It's always the same dream with little variations. Its the same dreams I have been having for a year or two. And I always have one when I am least expecting it or thinking about those things. Its like each time I have one its a reminder. And Im like oh yeah! I need to fill my water drums...they are empty at the moment and empty drums wont do much good.

[DrJonescaptain of 1,000]

Not many large quakes in the past month -- just one M>7 and no M>7.1 quakes:

# Magnitude 6.0 OFF THE COAST OF OREGON February 15, 2012
# Magnitude 6.4 SOLOMON ISLANDS February 14, 2012
# Magnitude 5.6 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA February 13, 2012
# Magnitude 6.7 NEGROS - CEBU REGION, PHILIPPINES February 06, 2012
# Magnitude 7.1 VANUATU February 02, 2012
# Magnitude 6.3 NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL PERU January 30, 2012
# Magnitude 6.6 SOUTH SHETLAND ISLANDS January 15, 2012

Here's the latest at Puerto Rico -- again note the very low incidence rate and just small quakes (and no clusters)

15EqsPRico17Feb2012.png (295.06 KiB) Viewed 920 times

Am I expecting a big one (M>7.1) somewhere, before General Conference? IMHO, yes. (See above recurrent cycle)

[freedomfightercaptain of 1,000]

Earthquake swarm near Mt. Hood Oregon recently. Seem to be ongoing.

[minganocaptain of 1,000]

Earthquake swarm near Mt. Hood Oregon recently. Seem to be ongoing.

Source?

[Randcaptain of 1,000]

Had a 4.0 in the New Madrid the other day, felt in 14 states.

[7cylon7captain of 1,000]

Had a 4.0 in the New Madrid the other day, felt in 14 states.

Sleep right through it did not feel a thing.

[Randcaptain of 1,000]

Had a 4.0 in the New Madrid the other day, felt in 14 states.

Sleep right through it did not feel a thing.

Yeah, me too. It would take a strong one to wake me up.

[freedomfightercaptain of 1,000]

Earthquake swarm near Mt. Hood Oregon recently. Seem to be ongoing.

Source?

Local news and http://www.pnsn.org/

http://www.pnsn.org/events

http://www.pnsn.org/blog/2012/02/23/mou ... eb-23-2012

[minganocaptain of 1,000]

So far nothing interesting in the Hood graphs. Until you see harmonic tremors, significant glacial melt or trees dying off there isn't much to worry about.

[DrJonescaptain of 1,000]

I checked using USGS and ESMC quake lists -- there is a tiny cluster near Mt Hood, less than 6 in the last week. OTOH, on the Big Island Hawaii =- big cluster, about 70 in the past week, and one in the last hour.

[freedomfightercaptain of 1,000]

I checked using USGS and ESMC quake lists -- there is a tiny cluster near Mt Hood, less than 6 in the last week. OTOH, on the Big Island Hawaii =- big cluster, about 70 in the past week, and one in the last hour.

My wife and I are planning a Hawaiian vacation. We should have a "rockin'" good time.

[DrJonescaptain of 1,000]

I noticed in the Des News that the grand opening for the City Creek Center in SLC is planned for the next "188-day cycle Big Quake" (see above for explanation) -- which as noted above is March 22, 2012.
lol -- grand opening on Quake-day!???

Anyway, you might be interested in this:

Who's coming to City Creek: Take a look


By Hunter Schwarz and Jasen Lee, Deseret News
Published: Saturday, Feb. 25 2012 7:18 p.m. MST

SALT LAKE CITY — Next month Salt Lake City is expected to finally celebrate the grand opening of the state's most highly anticipated retail project in more than a decade. City Creek Center is scheduled to open its doors March 22.

During an exclusive tour for the Deseret News and KSL on Thursday, work crews clad in orange and green vests with hard hats stood on ladders and wielded tools — the sound of saws, drills and hammers echoing throughout the property. The workers could be seen moving in and out of the area as they bring in interiors for the retail stores now under construction.

While the vast majority of the construction work is complete, crews are still busy building out the individual retail spaces and putting the final touches on the remaining unfinished public areas from early in the morning to late at night.

City Creek general manager Linda Wardell said that despite the long hours, there is a great deal of enthusiasm and anticipation from staff and workers about the impending grand opening.

"We've been working on this project for a long time and to know that it is just ... days away from opening," she said. "We're just so excited!"

The architectural details in the public areas show an artistic design that incorporates the unique natural beauty that signifies Utah — use of large red rock to create a comforting desert landscape where visitors will enjoy scenic sky-lit views whether the retractable roof is open or closed.

In the coming weeks, the various fountains will be tested, including one that will have a fire feature as well. Wardell said the center's giant granite fireplace is also ready.

She said the feature, set just inside the South Temple entrance, was designed to serve as one of the major meeting areas of the center. People will say, "Lets meet by the fireplace," Wardell predicted.

As for the retail space, shopping center officals said leasing for the downtown mall is now 92 percent complete. Taubman Inc., the company that manages the retail portion of the project, said it will release the names of the approximately 80 stores that will be in the shopping center on March 1, in anticipation of a month-long marketing campaign marking the center's opening.

[katmrcaptain of 100]

Are you saying you believe this March 22nd quake will be the Wasatch fault?

[DrJonescaptain of 1,000]

Are you saying you believe this March 22nd quake will be the Wasatch fault?

Ah -- no, just that March 22nd +/- a day is what we discussed above. WHERE the 188-day cycle quake will occur is not predicted from the four data points so far (that I can see!).
Also, I'm not "betting" on March 22nd... but I do find the hypothesis interesting at this point.

--> It is safe to say (scientifically) that a big quake will hit the Wasatch front some time. I'm not saying when this will occur.

PS -- I will not be at the grand opening in SLC on the 22nd... -- let me leave it at that.

[DrJonescaptain of 1,000]

... just that March 22nd +/- a day is what we discussed above. WHERE the 188-day cycle quake will occur is not predicted from the four data points so far (that I can see!).

Fun to note that March 23rd is the start-date for the movie "Hunger Games". I read the book and recommend the book...
Katniss stands up against government intimidation... who wins?

[bobhenstracaptain of 1,000]

That 188 day cycle is very interesting. I've been looking for "types" of that number, have found nothing that indicates there's something to it scripturally, the difference, so far, relates to nothing I can find.

There is however the imprisonment of Joseph Smith in Liberty Jail. My forth great grandfather Caleb Baldwin was also in that Jail with Joseph. According to the numbers I've been able to come up with is, the time "IN" liberty jail was around 182 days, but Joseph and others were captive for several days before they were placed in Liberty jail. The final sum of days may be 188 days!

Not saying it's a "type," Just saying it's interesting!

Bob

[Thinkercaptain of 100]

When haven't there been earthquakes?
Evidence for prehistoric earthquakes
http://bssa.geoscienceworld.org/content/79/2/342.short

"And when he was demanded of the Pharisees, when the kingdom of god should come, he answered them and said, The kingdom of god cometh not with observation: Neither shall they say, Lo here! or, lo there! for, behold, the kingdom of God is within you." -Luke 17:20-21

[DrJonescaptain of 1,000]

Just a reminder (from earlier page):

02/27/10- 8.8 Chile EQ
188 days
09/04/10- 7.1 Christchurch EQ
188 days
03/11/11- 9.0 Japan EQ
188 days
09/15/11- 7.3 Fiji EQ (plus a few other 6+ EQ's that same day)
188 days
March 22, 2012

(+/- a day due to international date line, etc.)

Further evidence that quakes M= 7.1 or larger are RARE, so the 188-day cycle may be significant, is found by looking at the USGeological Survey (USGS) data for "Significant Quakes" today:

# Magnitude 2.9 SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIFORNIA March 05, 2012
# Magnitude 6.6 SOUTHEAST OF THE LOYALTY ISLANDS March 03, 2012
# Magnitude 6.7 SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA February 26, 2012
# Magnitude 6.0 OFF THE COAST OF OREGON February 15, 2012
# Magnitude 6.4 SOLOMON ISLANDS February 14, 2012
# Magnitude 5.6 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA February 13, 2012
# Magnitude 6.7 NEGROS - CEBU REGION, PHILIPPINES February 06, 2012
# Magnitude 7.1 VANUATU February 02, 2012
# Magnitude 6.3 NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL PERU January 30, 2012
# Magnitude 6.6 SOUTH SHETLAND ISLANDS January 15, 2012

The last M>7 quake was a 7.1 at Vanuatu (tiny population) on Feb 2, 2012 -- over a MONTH ago!

[TrojanHorsecaptain of 10]

Massive coordinated Plume events each evening all across the midwest. This could mean something very massive is setting up in the near future...

[DrJonescaptain of 1,000]

Thanks Trojan Horse; it was an interesting vid.

M 4 SF Bay, Calif:

Magnitude 4.0
Date-Time

* Monday, March 05, 2012 at 13:33:20 UTC
* Monday, March 05, 2012 at 05:33:20 AM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 37.928°N, 122.309°W
Depth 8.6 km (5.3 miles)
Region SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIFORNIA

[DrJonescaptain of 1,000]

Just a reminder (from earlier page):

02/27/10- 8.8 Chile EQ
188 days
09/04/10- 7.1 Christchurch EQ
188 days
03/11/11- 9.0 Japan EQ
188 days
09/15/11- 7.3 Fiji EQ (plus a few other 6+ EQ's that same day)
188 days
March 22, 2012

(+/- a day due to international date line, etc.)

(Just for fun) -- Another on "Quake Day" is this event: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0mOemlq3hI

Called "Conception Day" for humanity somehow, with the birth happening NINE months later, which is 22 December 2012...

[bobhenstracaptain of 1,000]

Lol, Dec. 22nd, wouldn't that be a ---shock!

Bob

[gkearneycaptain of 100]

There was just a 7.1 earthquake at 07:09:52 on March 9 2012 at Vanuatu in the Pacific. Guess that finally blows the 180 day idea up doesn't it? Or are you going to argue that it doesn't count because it happened in some isolated place and we are only to count quake that fit the 180 time frame?

[Fairmindedcaptain of 1,000]

Maybe, although outliers are common in most experiments.

[gkearneycaptain of 100]

Oh I get it now all major earthquakes (7.1 or better) fit the pattern except those that do not.

[DrJonescaptain of 1,000]

There was just a 7.1 earthquake at 07:09:52 on March 9 2012 at Vanuatu in the Pacific. Guess that finally blows the [b]180 day idea up doesn't it? Or[/b] are you going to argue that it doesn't count because it happened in some isolated place and we are only to count quake that fit the 180 time frame?

Gkearney: Oh I get it now all major earthquakes (7.1 or better) fit the pattern except those that do not.

The pattern is 188 days, not 180 days. Also, the pattern does not say that there are no M>7.0 quakes BETWEEN the large M>7 quakes, only that these large quakes have occurred on the 188-day cycle. The fact that M>7.0 quakes are quite few and far between adds significance to the hypothesis.

Furthermore, USGS reports a 6.7 earthquake on March 9th (not a 7.1), when one consults the actual USGS data as I show below from their website:

# Magnitude 6.7 VANUATU March 09, 2012
# Magnitude 4.0 SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIFORNIA March 05, 2012
# Magnitude 6.6 SOUTHEAST OF THE LOYALTY ISLANDS March 03, 2012
# Magnitude 6.7 SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA February 26, 2012
# Magnitude 6.0 OFF THE COAST OF OREGON February 15, 2012
# Magnitude 6.4 SOLOMON ISLANDS February 14, 2012
# Magnitude 5.6 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA February 13, 2012
# Magnitude 6.7 NEGROS - CEBU REGION, PHILIPPINES February 06, 2012
# Magnitude 7.1 VANUATU February 02, 2012
# Magnitude 6.3 NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL PERU January 30, 2012
# Magnitude 6.6 SOUTH SHETLAND ISLANDS January 15, 2012

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/

It is also clear that M = 7.1 or greater EQs are quite rare -- we see that the last one was at Vanuatu on FEBRUARY 2nd, about five weeks ago.

I hope you're getting this straightened out, GKearney -- why are you so belligerent about this hypothesis anyway? I'm not saying this hypothesis is "true", just one that seems to follow observations -- with an eye to a possible large earthquake on 22 March +/- one day. The test of an hypothesis is its ability to PREDICT -- so we wait and see. Actually, we may wish to consider doing a little preparation also. Wouldn't hurt.

I hope your day improves.

[DrJaycaptain of 100]

It is interesting to note that some believe that ALL events must conform to a hypothesis. There can be many cycles of events running concurrently. If a hypothesis yields predictable events, even if it doesn't include all of them, then it is still a useful hypothesis.

Just look at what a composite waveform looks like when you mix three different frequencies of pure sinewaves. It doesn't look anything like a sinewave, but there is still a pattern that shows in the output where you can see the impact of each of the individual sources. The highest output is where all three of the waveforms happen to peak at the same time. Are there other high points, you bet.

This cycles that are going on in this earth are much more complex than three simple sinewaves. But if there is a pattern that shows some sort of reliability in the real world, it is definately worth noting.

We will see the usefullness of this hypothesis come 22 March +/- one day. However as DrJones has stated, a little preparation wouldn't hurt. After all if we begin the preparations after the event, it's just a bit too late.

[DrJonescaptain of 1,000]

...

We will see the usefullness of this hypothesis come 22 March +/- one day. However as DrJones has stated, a little preparation wouldn't hurt. After all if we begin the preparations after the event, it's just a bit too late.

Right! Thanks, DrJay. One other note -- the new moon for March 2012 occurs on 22 March ... just nine days away.

[DrJonescaptain of 1,000]

Here we are -- tomorrow the earthquake window begins for an M = 7.1 or greater (that is, in the window March 22 +/- one day). It's an interesting hypothesis that we're testing.

Looking at the data today at USGS, still the count for such large quakes is low, just one M7.1 in over two months, and that near the remote Pacific island Vanuatu did no reported damage that I could find...

# Magnitude 6.9 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN March 14, 2012
# Magnitude 6.7 VANUATU March 09, 2012
# Magnitude 4.0 SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIFORNIA March 05, 2012
# Magnitude 6.6 SOUTHEAST OF THE LOYALTY ISLANDS March 03, 2012
# Magnitude 6.7 SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA February 26, 2012
# Magnitude 6.0 OFF THE COAST OF OREGON February 15, 2012
# Magnitude 6.4 SOLOMON ISLANDS February 14, 2012
# Magnitude 5.6 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA February 13, 2012
# Magnitude 6.7 NEGROS - CEBU REGION, PHILIPPINES February 06, 2012
# Magnitude 7.1 VANUATU February 02, 2012
# Magnitude 6.3 NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL PERU January 30, 2012
# Magnitude 6.6 SOUTH SHETLAND ISLANDS January 15, 2012