So if you believe things might "Hit the fan " what are you doing?

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harakim
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Re: So if you believe things might "Hit the fan " what are you doing?

Post by harakim »

At the meta level though, why do I need goats? I was going to buy them once but things have changed. Kind of hoping for GAS now so I can unload those goats at a huge profit.

paulrobots
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Re: So if you believe things might "Hit the fan " what are you doing?

Post by paulrobots »

Got a sales email on Redfeather canned butter. I have always wanted to try it, ordered 10 cans. The thought of having real butter that can sit on your shelf for 5 years is great. It gets great reviews and I have some of the canned cheese that is also made in New Zealand, it's good stuff.

Older/wiser?
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Re: So if you believe things might "Hit the fan " what are you doing?

Post by Older/wiser? »

This has been the worse winter here in at least 12-15 years, on a personal note Dec. 8 we woke up to flooding , a broken pipe on the 3rd floor, as we walked down the hall is was "Singing in the Rain" in biblical proportions. The basement all least 1ft. There went Christmas. Demolition started , try hauling frozen carpet away. The cold weather the mounds of snow 16ft in front were plows left it in front of my driveway. The problem for the last few weeks has been getting to the farm ,about 7 miles away, trying to get up the unplowed road, tried snowmobiles, they got stuck , could hardly get them out. I bought old skies we mounted them on a pallet walked threw chest deep snow got Daisy and took her down the hill to a neighbors ,I park her there, hook her up each day to the pallet skies and each day drive her up to the barn feed the goats and other 5 Belgian horses, load up a bale for her drive down the hill ( occasionally get dumped replaced the skis twice, they get caught and break), finish feeding drive home the other day it took 4 hours. We have our chickens in town at our place all 23. Shovel a frozen trail, deal with frozen water collect more eggs than we can use , got 20 yesterday and that is just to care for the animals not us. What is my point you say? Well if there was no DI to buy skies, no gas for trucks, no water from the house plumbing, how hard would it be to take care of ourselves in this severe of a winter. We are blessed we could eat well, (fresh eggs are great) as long as I had at least 6 months chicken food. The things needed to survive the flood, the equipment breakage we are in more trouble than you can imagine. The batteries, medicines, equipment needed are overwhelming. We need to buy a cutter cart to get through the snow, snow shoes just to walk . This winter has been an eye opener, if you are struck with anything out of the ordinary and add extreme weather to the mix, it can take you down easily. Today we are shoveling the roof of the market, (found a few cracked beams) feeding animals, battling the cold (do you know how many pair of gloves we have gone through this month) so chores should be done by about 2pm. So if you really want to be prepared, I am sure most of us have enough food, but it is the other things that might make the difference, you have a generator, what about a case of oil for it? Gloves when your working hard they wear out fast , wool socks ,boots good ones , frost bite comes easy up here. I am realizing just how hard things can be with one or two uh oh didn't see that coming scenarios. Remember an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure, and it takes a long time to be prepared for different things.

Silver
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Re: So if you believe things might "Hit the fan " what are you doing?

Post by Silver »

What am I doing?

Since I'm in the auto industry, I'm watching vehicle inventories. Rising inventories are an indicator for a tapped-out consumer. Too much debt. Somebody on this forum is always saying that we are just starting seven years of prosperity. I'd say not.

I'm buying food. I heard too many stories of my father going hungry as a Depression-era baby. It was 1941 and he was 10 before he had his first taste of beef.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-0 ... ember-2007

See the link for all the graphics.

GM Auto Inventory Hits 10 Year High: Most Since November 2007, One Month Before The Recession Started

When we summarized yesterday's disappointing monthly car sales report, which badly missing expectations showing the fourth consecutive month of declining auto sales - the first time this has happened since July 2009 - we noted what may be the biggest concern for the auto industry: inventory days continued to trend higher as OEMs push product on to dealer lots even though sale-through to end customers has seemingly stalled.

We highlighted GM, one of the few OEMs to actually disclose dealer inventories in monthly sales releases, which reported that April inventories increased to 100 days (935,758 vehicles) from 98 days at the end of March and just 71 days (681,402 vehicles) in April 2016. Indicatlvely, analysts say an overall inventory level of 60 to 70 days is healthy. 100 is not.

Of course, GM management was eager to deflect attention from this troubling statistic, and said that soaring inventories are normal and, somehow, "reflect strong sales", as per the press release: "As planned, GM’s inventories reflect strong sales, lower car production and strategic, launch-related growth in truck and crossover stocks."

Or maybe not, because around the time of our post, Automotive News reported Nick Bunkley pointed out something troubling: with 935,758 unsold GM units collecting dust in dealer lots, this was the highest inventory number in 9.5 years, the highest since Nov. 2007, and, as Bunkley reminds us, "one month before the recession officially began."

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Nick Bunkley ✔ @nickbunkley
GM inventories now at 9.5-year high. 935,758 units (100-day supply) is most since Nov. 2007, 1 month before the recession officially began.
9:54 AM - 2 May 2017
116 116 Retweets 123 123 likes
Here is what GM's auto inventory since emergency from bankruptcy looks like.

Will this time the GM inventory cycle indicator be different? With widespread operating shutdowns planned in the coming weeks, it better be, or else something is far more broken with the US consumer than even the paltry 0.7% GDP would suggest.

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JK4Woods
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Re: So if you believe things might "Hit the fan " what are you doing?

Post by JK4Woods »

For those of you who pay little attention to the main stream media, who don't bother tuning into nightly news, or remain focused on the shallow superficial stores of the day, then this nugget is for you.

Ten years ago Nancy Pelosi pushed forward the first trillion dollar deficit federal budget. And every year thereafter another trillion dollar budget deficit was passed.

Any idea why ten years is significant?
.
.
.

It's because 86% of federal debt is held in ten year T-bills. Due and payable ten years after issuing them.

So come October 1st, 2017; the first trillion borrowed (and spent) will be due to be paid.

Guess what?!? We'll still have to borrow another trillion and a half for next year's federal operating budget.

So come October, we'll have to roll over a trillion dollars worth of T-bills, and issue another trillion and a half for the coming fiscal year.

I wonder who will step up to the plate and buy the old debt made new, and who will buy the newest debt? At what interest rate?

It's not like we have a trillion in cash ready to payout for the T-bills coming due.

The sad part is every year for the next ten years, we will have another trillion to re-finance and a trillion and a half to raise to keep the swamp running per status quo.

Everyone who relies on the arm of flesh (capitalistic economy) will wake up wiped out from a bail-in, in which all savings are confiscated by the fed to try and keep the foregone disaster from happening.

Those out of debt will be in an enviable position, ready to reap other blessings from being obedient to prophetic counsel to get out of debt.

Sure we might weather this coming October first with cooking the books (once again), but the year after, or the year after that and kicking the can down the road will not provide any meaningful solution.

Babylon shall fall, and quickly shall be the effect with weeping and nashing of teeth.

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BTH&T
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Re: So if you believe things might "Hit the fan " what are you doing?

Post by BTH&T »

I thought they (Fed) were going to just print more $1,000,000,000.00 Dollar bills.
We will only need a thousand or two of them!
Who's picture is on that denomination anyway?

Silver
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Re: So if you believe things might "Hit the fan " what are you doing?

Post by Silver »

BTH&T wrote: May 3rd, 2017, 4:02 pm I thought they (Fed) were going to just print more $1,000,000,000.00 Dollar bills.
We will only need a thousand or two of them!
Who's picture is on that denomination anyway?
Gadianton

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BTH&T
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Re: So if you believe things might "Hit the fan " what are you doing?

Post by BTH&T »

Silver wrote: May 3rd, 2017, 4:40 pm
BTH&T wrote: May 3rd, 2017, 4:02 pm I thought they (Fed) were going to just print more $1,000,000,000.00 Dollar bills.
We will only need a thousand or two of them!
Who's picture is on that denomination anyway?
Gadianton
Is that a group shot?

Older/wiser?
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Re: So if you believe things might "Hit the fan " what are you doing?

Post by Older/wiser? »

I thought this quote by Dieter F. Uchdorf was applicable to this post , as a reminder to those trying to "get there houses in order",and it's truths apply on so many levels.

Like two sides of the coin, the temporal and spiritual are inseparable ...The giver of all life has proclaimed, " All things unto me are spiritual, and not at any time have I given unto you a law which was temporal. D&C 29:34 unfortunately, there are those who overlook the temporal because they consider it less important. They treasure the spiritual while minimizing the temporal... The one complements the other . The one without the other is a counterfeit of God's plan of happiness... We must not turn aside our hearts or heads from becoming more self-reliant . The temporal is intertwined with the spiritual . God has given us this mortal experience in the temporal challenges that attend it as a laboratory so we can grow into the beings heavenly father wants us to become .

Spaced_Out
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Re: So if you believe things might "Hit the fan " what are you doing?

Post by Spaced_Out »

JK4Woods wrote: May 3rd, 2017, 3:52 pm For those of you who pay little attention to the main stream media, who don't bother tuning into nightly news, or remain focused on the shallow superficial stores of the day, then this nugget is for you.

Ten years ago Nancy Pelosi pushed forward the first trillion dollar deficit federal budget. And every year thereafter another trillion dollar budget deficit was passed.

Any idea why ten years is significant?
Babylon shall fall, and quickly shall be the effect with weeping and nashing of teeth.
Yeah been watching the US auto industry - it is all unravelling.

More predictions of imminent economic collapse and it is in line with time frame....

Former Reagan Administration Official Is Warning Of A Financial Collapse Some Time ‘Between August And November’
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/arch ... d-november
Stockman
The market is pricing itself for perfection for all of eternity. This is crazy. . . . I think the market could easily drop to 1,600 or 1,300. It could drop by 40% or even more once the fantasy ends. When the government shows its true colors, that it’s headed for a fiscal blood bath when this crazy notion that there is going to be some Trump fiscal stimulus is put to rest once and for all. I mean it’s not going to happen. They can’t pass a tax cut that big without a budget resolution that incorporated $10 trillion or $15 trillion in debt over the next decade. It’s just not going to pass Congress. . . . I think this is the greatest sucker’s rally we have ever seen.”

The S&P 500 is going to drop by hundreds and hundreds of points sometime over the next few months as we drift into this unexpected crisis. . . . I would target sometime between August and November because that’s when the rubber is going to meet the road on a debt ceiling increase when they are out of cash. Washington is going to end up in vicious political conflict over what to do about the debt ceiling. . . . It is going to be one giant fiscal bloodbath the likes of which we have never seen.

Spaced_Out
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Re: So if you believe things might "Hit the fan " what are you doing?

Post by Spaced_Out »

After watching this YT vid, I add a few extra bottles of vitamins. , something I had been meaning to do for a while. I liked his alternative to toilet paper - something to consider..

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mirkwood
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Re: So if you believe things might "Hit the fan " what are you doing?

Post by mirkwood »

"If I knew the Lord was coming tomorrow I would plant a cherry tree today."

I forget which prophet made that statement.

I just spent a week in Germany on vacation. This week is Italy.

The Lord has blessed me with the ability to have fun too.

Spaced_Out
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Re: So if you believe things might "Hit the fan " what are you doing?

Post by Spaced_Out »

mirkwood wrote: May 9th, 2017, 9:08 am "If I knew the Lord was coming tomorrow I would plant a cherry tree today."

I forget which prophet made that statement.

I just spent a week in Germany on vacation. This week is Italy.

The Lord has blessed me with the ability to have fun too.
Build those memories you are going to need them.

As for me prepping is fun - it is a kind of hobby.

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DudeInZion
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Re: So if you believe things might "Hit the fan " what are you doing?

Post by DudeInZion »

I believe we need to be doing everything we can to destroy the natural man within us and become Christ-centered. The temporal preparedness is critical as far as being obedient to the counsel of our leaders. The spiritual preparedness will go a lot further when we start getting into the coming trials that we all must face. If our faith is not strong enough, how would we react if our leaders come to us one day and ask us to take only what we can load in our vehicles and go somewhere not as comfortable as our nice home, leave a good job, leave friends who may not be willing to go? I don't know if we will ever really be asked to do these things, but if you were asked, could you? I think our faith will be put to the test in many ways and we will succeed or fail on how well we are prepared both temporally and spiritually. We need to live our lives as though He isn't coming for some time, but be prepared as though He were coming tomorrow. We need to enjoy the many blessings we receive and share those blessings with those around us.

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JK4Woods
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Re: So if you believe things might "Hit the fan " what are you doing?

Post by JK4Woods »

JK4Woods wrote: May 3rd, 2017, 3:52 pm For those of you who pay little attention to the main stream media, who don't bother tuning into nightly news, or remain focused on the shallow superficial stores of the day, then this nugget is for you.

Ten years ago Nancy Pelosi pushed forward the first trillion dollar deficit federal budget. And every year thereafter another trillion dollar budget deficit was passed.

Any idea why ten years is significant?
.
.
.

It's because 86% of federal debt is held in ten year T-bills. Due and payable ten years after issuing them.

So come October 1st, 2017; the first trillion borrowed (and spent) will be due to be paid.

Guess what?!? We'll still have to borrow another trillion and a half for next year's federal operating budget.

So come October, we'll have to roll over a trillion dollars worth of T-bills, and issue another trillion and a half for the coming fiscal year.

I wonder who will step up to the plate and buy the old debt made new, and who will buy the newest debt? At what interest rate?

It's not like we have a trillion in cash ready to payout for the T-bills coming due.

The sad part is every year for the next ten years, we will have another trillion to re-finance and a trillion and a half to raise to keep the swamp running per status quo.

Everyone who relies on the arm of flesh (capitalistic economy) will wake up wiped out from a bail-in, in which all savings are confiscated by the fed to try and keep the foregone disaster from happening.

Those out of debt will be in an enviable position, ready to reap other blessings from being obedient to prophetic counsel to get out of debt.

Sure we might weather this coming October first with cooking the books (once again), but the year after, or the year after that and kicking the can down the road will not provide any meaningful solution.

Babylon shall fall, and quickly shall be the effect with weeping and nashing of teeth.
Just thought I'd bump this from four years ago.... if you have had a feeling of "un-ease" at all the Gov't spending lately, then this will open your eyes some...

Aprhys
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Re: So if you believe things might "Hit the fan " what are you doing?

Post by Aprhys »

I really don't worry about this much anymore. I just tossed A LOT of food storage that had gone bad. I have done this three times before. Not anymore. If things get bad enough you are all going to die also. We have become so dependant on modern comforts/medicine/lifestyle. If things get bad enough you won't be able to find a single rabbit in the hills to eat. Let the civil war begin.

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JK4Woods
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Re: So if you believe things might "Hit the fan " what are you doing?

Post by JK4Woods »

Aprhys wrote: May 10th, 2021, 10:55 pm I really don't worry about this much anymore. I just tossed A LOT of food storage that had gone bad. I have done this three times before. Not anymore. If things get bad enough you are all going to die also. We have become so dependant on modern comforts/medicine/lifestyle. If things get bad enough you won't be able to find a single rabbit in the hills to eat. Let the civil war begin.
I tend to agree with you.... dying might actually be a blessing in many circumstances...

farmerchick
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Re: So if you believe things might "Hit the fan " what are you doing?

Post by farmerchick »

Well reading tea leaves is over estimated right? Interestingly things seem to be worse now than one year ago aside from tp shortage. We tried to buy a new John Deere tractor recently and were told there is no inventory of the tractor we wanted on the west coast....it'll be awhile....haven't heard back from the dealership for a month at least. ...we could get another brand but John Deere is our preferred brand.....if you've ever had a eastern block manufactured tractor you would understand...lol.... Tried to buy a microwave ...(well three of them...over the range type....) for my rental houses. I don't know why three of them just quit in a matter of months but I digress....so I ordered one in January,..it came in April. I ordered another one In February it came in just now....i ordered one yesterday and I hope to get it June first.....back log...no inventory so they say....first microwave cost 300.00 second one cost 350.00 and third one will cost 375.00 delivered to my address...i had to buy an upgraded model for the third one because the inventory on the cheaper models were not estimated to be in stock anytime soon, I don't know if it's just here that gas prices are near 4.00 a gallon or that some lumber and electrical wire is near impossible to get, but it seems like everything I go to buy is not in stock.....SOOO once again my plain and simple approach is my garden...which is growing nicely.....so inflation seems to be here in all aspects....shortages of some important things seem to be with us a well....I'm going to just continue to take each day as it comes as usual...lol....no need to fear...no need to do things differently...just maintain and endure.....

tribrac
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Re: So if you believe things might "Hit the fan " what are you doing?

Post by tribrac »

The older I get the more I don't care. Nothing I can do to change the powerful forces at work. Moroni told us what our fate is. What little I can do amounts to attaching corks to a few spoons on the titanic.

OCDMOM
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Re: So if you believe things might "Hit the fan " what are you doing?

Post by OCDMOM »

I have been buying more rice, pasta, sauces and soups.

Prana
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Re: So if you believe things might "Hit the fan " what are you doing?

Post by Prana »

These days I am practicing purposeful action towards an unknown purpose. That is to say: Mindfulness. Attention on intention and trust in whatever will be.

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harakim
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Re: So if you believe things might "Hit the fan " what are you doing?

Post by harakim »

Aprhys wrote: May 10th, 2021, 10:55 pm I really don't worry about this much anymore. I just tossed A LOT of food storage that had gone bad. I have done this three times before. Not anymore. If things get bad enough you are all going to die also. We have become so dependant on modern comforts/medicine/lifestyle. If things get bad enough you won't be able to find a single rabbit in the hills to eat. Let the civil war begin.
You are projecting your circumstance onto other people. Survival is not as difficult as you're making it out to be, but you do have to put forth effort if you want to survive.

JK4Woods wrote: May 11th, 2021, 10:02 am
Aprhys wrote: May 10th, 2021, 10:55 pm I really don't worry about this much anymore. I just tossed A LOT of food storage that had gone bad. I have done this three times before. Not anymore. If things get bad enough you are all going to die also. We have become so dependant on modern comforts/medicine/lifestyle. If things get bad enough you won't be able to find a single rabbit in the hills to eat. Let the civil war begin.
I tend to agree with you.... dying might actually be a blessing in many circumstances...
I think about this a lot. It would probably be a lot easier just to die. It's probably not worth preparing for it if you're not already ready if you are prepared to die. It is likely we will all die (except perhaps the 144000) unless we take the mark of the beast.

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JK4Woods
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Re: So if you believe things might "Hit the fan " what are you doing?

Post by JK4Woods »

farmerchick wrote: May 11th, 2021, 12:30 pm Well reading tea leaves is over estimated right? Interestingly things seem to be worse now than one year ago aside from tp shortage. We tried to buy a new John Deere tractor recently and were told there is no inventory of the tractor we wanted on the west coast....it'll be awhile....haven't heard back from the dealership for a month at least. ...we could get another brand but John Deere is our preferred brand.....if you've ever had a eastern block manufactured tractor you would understand...lol.... Tried to buy a microwave ...(well three of them...over the range type....) for my rental houses. I don't know why three of them just quit in a matter of months but I digress....so I ordered one in January,..it came in April. I ordered another one In February it came in just now....i ordered one yesterday and I hope to get it June first.....back log...no inventory so they say....first microwave cost 300.00 second one cost 350.00 and third one will cost 375.00 delivered to my address...i had to buy an upgraded model for the third one because the inventory on the cheaper models were not estimated to be in stock anytime soon, I don't know if it's just here that gas prices are near 4.00 a gallon or that some lumber and electrical wire is near impossible to get, but it seems like everything I go to buy is not in stock.....SOOO once again my plain and simple approach is my garden...which is growing nicely.....so inflation seems to be here in all aspects....shortages of some important things seem to be with us a well....I'm going to just continue to take each day as it comes as usual...lol....no need to fear...no need to do things differently...just maintain and endure.....
Ah yes... the "Lean Just-in-Time" manufacturing philosophy is bearing fruit... and the chickens are coming home to roost...

Meaning, every business used to have warehouses for their stock, and when things were sold off the shelves in the store, they were replenished quickly.
Now-a-days most items are made to order.... Just buying 175 thermostats for the hotel project we're building right now, will take 12 weeks to deliver....

Look at the fuel problems in the Northeast because of one pipeline going down.

The replenishment pipelines for foodstuffs and everything else are basically garden hoses now.
Remember the scarcity of face masks a year ago...?? The supply chain reached across oceans for a ten cent item...

We can't get the hotel door locks, and we don't know when we will get them... Why..?? Because of the small chip shortage. Even the most simple basic chip used in a basic item like a hotel door lock (or a microwave oven..;-) ) is in such short supply right now, that automotive assembly lines have been halted because of the shortage.

I'm working out in a huge agricultural area, yet everywhere I see silos in complete disrepair... meaning the surplus grain is shipped overseas and very little is hanging around like years past.
I've also noticed that the small "seed" silos on individual farms are unused, derelict or torn down... meaning almost all farmers have to buy seed every year from some corporate conglomerate; and likely GMO so they are now completely dependent on seed suppliers every single year.

Of course all this efficiency, less cost, and other laudable traits and promises for having business evolve into Just-in-Time practices, hasn't trickled down into my pocketbook. It's just served to help corporate values and stock prices and grow larger executive bonuses.

Funny how that works... every year, I become "meeker", (I just gotta continue to hope "that the meek will inherit the earth")...

farmerchick
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Re: So if you believe things might "Hit the fan " what are you doing?

Post by farmerchick »

The powers in charge are slowly transforming us from a capitalist surplus system to a marxist/socialist one where everything is scarce.....while screaming capitalism doesn't work...look at the shortages.....meanwhile paying everyone to do nothing while a Labor shortage exists to make essential goods.....this can only last so long....pretty soon all production will come to a halt, held up because of certain parts needed to produce or finish......and then they will have proven capitalism doesn't work ....brilliant.....expect shortages to continue, prices to rise and the media will be screaming Trump set this all in motion and there is nothing Biden can do except throw more money at it.......they want to slow and eventually stop our very specialized productive economy...moving us from equality in opportunity .(capitalism) to equity in outcomes (marxism)......hmmmm it does seem ike they want to control the trickle of the lean principles to a stop so we can achieve ultimate equity of outcomes...lol....math was never my strong suit but I'm pretty sure 0=0 and that is the only number that represents equal equity among all of us.....the secret is, of course, that equity will never be achieved among the huddling masses.....someones camp site with a fire will be more desirable than someone else's.....than what?.....looks like this build hack better plan is working as expected...equity is on the way....

EmmaLee
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Re: So if you believe things might "Hit the fan " what are you doing?

Post by EmmaLee »

farmerchick wrote: May 12th, 2021, 6:12 pm The powers in charge are slowly transforming us from a capitalist surplus system to a marxist/socialist one where everything is scarce
There are two big car dealerships in our city and both lots are all but empty. It seems other people have been noticing it, too, as the subject came up a week or so ago in our city's FB group. Several salesmen and other people who work for the dealerships chimed in. They said they are not getting any new cars because they all require microchips, and those come from China and other countries - and none are being made. The waiting list for even used cars is months out - for new cars, it's much longer.

The same is/will be true of all appliances, the HVAC in our homes, and a host of other things we use daily and take for granted.

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