Silver Contest: Week 12 (of 11)
- iWriteStuff
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 12 (of 11)
For those paying attention, at the open of the Japanese market last night there was a sudden and unexpected flash crash in the price of silver. "Someone" dumped nearly $450M worth of silver contracts on the market during thin trading, essentially dropping the price all the way down to $14.34. This is what we call manipulation via stop-running. It's a trick used by central banks and their buddies to crush the price of a commodity that rivals/opposes the dollar (or any fiat currency, really). Here's a chart showing the activity:
Why do we know it's manipulation? Because any reasonable seller wouldn't dump it all at once. That would crush the price they got and result in very poor returns. If you want to sell a large holding, you sell it gradually so as not to spark a massive drop in price like the one observed above. The fact that this strategy was employed during thin trading demonstrates the intent to suppress or crush the price of silver, or, at a minimum, to flush out stop loss orders so a buyer can come in and buy at extremely weakened prices.
The thing you have to ask yourself is "Why?" What is the advantage of crushing the spot price of gold and silver? Who benefits?
Why do we know it's manipulation? Because any reasonable seller wouldn't dump it all at once. That would crush the price they got and result in very poor returns. If you want to sell a large holding, you sell it gradually so as not to spark a massive drop in price like the one observed above. The fact that this strategy was employed during thin trading demonstrates the intent to suppress or crush the price of silver, or, at a minimum, to flush out stop loss orders so a buyer can come in and buy at extremely weakened prices.
The thing you have to ask yourself is "Why?" What is the advantage of crushing the spot price of gold and silver? Who benefits?
- Mark
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 12 (of 11)
The only person on this board who has been proven to be correct in their analysis of silver over the past 5 years has been Jason Bourne. The rest of you jokers are just yankee guessers who read way to much hype on the internet. ( said lovingly)
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 12 (of 11)
That link to the 100 oz bar above updates continuously. Now just $1598. That's really a good deal now. Somebody is putting a serious hurt on metal prices now.
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- Mark
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 12 (of 11)
You been talking to my wife again?
- iWriteStuff
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 12 (of 11)
I appreciate the vote of confidence!
This may sound contrary, but I'm actually quite ok with silver dropping. I'm only truly concerned when I see it launching into space. It means I can't get as much silver for my dollars as I'd like. Also, silver going up by leaps and bounds usually means there's some seriously bad news coming down the pike.
- Mark
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 12 (of 11)
I wonder how many suckers lost their shirts listening to guys like this one back in 2012? Hype City baby. It's going to the moon! Jump on before it's to late!! Haha should have listened to Bourne..
http://silverseek.com/article/i-stand-140-silver-2012
http://silverseek.com/article/i-stand-140-silver-2012
- iWriteStuff
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 12 (of 11)
Who buys silver as an investment? I buy it as insurance. If the electronic digits I call my 401k should all disappear tomorrow, I still have something solid I can lay my hands on.Mark wrote: ↑July 7th, 2017, 9:02 am I wonder how many suckers lost their shirts listening to guys like this one back in 2012? Hype City baby. It's going to the moon! Jump on before it's to late!! Haha should have listened to Bourne..
http://silverseek.com/article/i-stand-140-silver-2012
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 12 (of 11)
iWriteStuff wrote: ↑July 7th, 2017, 9:13 amWho buys silver as an investment? I buy it as insurance. If the electronic digits I call my 401k should all disappear tomorrow, I still have something solid I can lay my hands on.Mark wrote: ↑July 7th, 2017, 9:02 am I wonder how many suckers lost their shirts listening to guys like this one back in 2012? Hype City baby. It's going to the moon! Jump on before it's to late!! Haha should have listened to Bourne..
http://silverseek.com/article/i-stand-140-silver-2012
Does it taste better with salt and pepper on it? :))
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 12 (of 11)
Is the assumption that I haven't got any food storage as well? Sure, let's operate on that premise.Mark wrote: ↑July 7th, 2017, 9:16 amiWriteStuff wrote: ↑July 7th, 2017, 9:13 amWho buys silver as an investment? I buy it as insurance. If the electronic digits I call my 401k should all disappear tomorrow, I still have something solid I can lay my hands on.Mark wrote: ↑July 7th, 2017, 9:02 am I wonder how many suckers lost their shirts listening to guys like this one back in 2012? Hype City baby. It's going to the moon! Jump on before it's to late!! Haha should have listened to Bourne..
http://silverseek.com/article/i-stand-140-silver-2012
Does it taste better with salt and pepper on it? :))
To be fair, I was saying the same thing a year ago. Why buy silver when I can keep buying more and more food storage? Then one morning I woke up and realized this isn't some kind of "guns vs butter" debate. You can, actually, have both. In fact you probably should. With what do you plan to barter when someone else has something you need and cash no longer holds any value? Gold and silver have recognized value almost universally. Having at least a small reserve of it is not a bad idea.
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 12 (of 11)
Just playing with you brother. I still have a bunch of those pretty little suckers stash away myself. And no I'm not giving them out to a bunch of yankee guessers. Let them go out and pay for them like I did way back when silver really was a good buy.iWriteStuff wrote: ↑July 7th, 2017, 9:23 amIs the assumption that I haven't got any food storage as well? Sure, let's operate on that premise.Mark wrote: ↑July 7th, 2017, 9:16 amiWriteStuff wrote: ↑July 7th, 2017, 9:13 amWho buys silver as an investment? I buy it as insurance. If the electronic digits I call my 401k should all disappear tomorrow, I still have something solid I can lay my hands on.Mark wrote: ↑July 7th, 2017, 9:02 am I wonder how many suckers lost their shirts listening to guys like this one back in 2012? Hype City baby. It's going to the moon! Jump on before it's to late!! Haha should have listened to Bourne..
http://silverseek.com/article/i-stand-140-silver-2012
Does it taste better with salt and pepper on it? :))
To be fair, I was saying the same thing a year ago. Why buy silver when I can keep buying more and more food storage? Then one morning I woke up and realized this isn't some kind of "guns vs butter" debate. You can, actually, have both. In fact you probably should. With what do you plan to barter when someone else has something you need and cash no longer holds any value? Gold and silver have recognized value almost universally. Having at least a small reserve of it is not a bad idea.
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 12 (of 11)
Johnny Silverseed is my name. Planting real money seeds is my aim.Mark wrote: ↑July 7th, 2017, 9:48 amJust playing with you brother. I still have a bunch of those pretty little suckers stash away myself. And no I'm not giving them out to a bunch of yankee guessers. Let them go out and pay for them like I did way back when silver really was a good buy.iWriteStuff wrote: ↑July 7th, 2017, 9:23 amIs the assumption that I haven't got any food storage as well? Sure, let's operate on that premise.Mark wrote: ↑July 7th, 2017, 9:16 amiWriteStuff wrote: ↑July 7th, 2017, 9:13 am
Who buys silver as an investment? I buy it as insurance. If the electronic digits I call my 401k should all disappear tomorrow, I still have something solid I can lay my hands on.
Does it taste better with salt and pepper on it? :))
To be fair, I was saying the same thing a year ago. Why buy silver when I can keep buying more and more food storage? Then one morning I woke up and realized this isn't some kind of "guns vs butter" debate. You can, actually, have both. In fact you probably should. With what do you plan to barter when someone else has something you need and cash no longer holds any value? Gold and silver have recognized value almost universally. Having at least a small reserve of it is not a bad idea.
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 12 (of 11)
lol Jason predicted silver was going under $5, he even came back on and owned that he was as wrong in his negative guess as I was in my positive guess.
Bottom line, soon or late, the dollar WILL go to zero. Might be a hundred years hence, or it could be "in six months" <---- I joke because so many predictions from "Yankee Guessers" are for "six months from now". Haha
I will say, Jason was largely correct in the inflation vs deflation debate. What happened is the Fed figured out how to inflate via QE and twist, and still for Main Street the immediate effect was deflationary. They have baked a lot of inflation into the cake, and the eventual result is going to be that Wall Street is going to be able to purchase real assets like real estate, precious metals and similar with inflated dollars and then the inflationary impact is going to hit Main Street.
Jason's premise that the massive debt is going to result in massive deflation at some point is correct. But also the massive printing that has gone on that has not really gone into circulation but has just propped up the stock market will eventually cause inflation or stagflation. Food storage and developing survival skills - being able to do things that don't involve a computer terminal - a great idea to be ready for whatever comes.
- Mark
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 12 (of 11)
2EstablishZion wrote: ↑July 7th, 2017, 11:10 amlol Jason predicted silver was going under $5, he even came back on and owned that he was as wrong in his negative guess as I was in my positive guess.
Bottom line, soon or late, the dollar WILL go to zero. Might be a hundred years hence, or it could be "in six months" <---- I joke because so many predictions from "Yankee Guessers" are for "six months from now". Haha
I will say, Jason was largely correct in the inflation vs deflation debate. What happened is the Fed figured out how to inflate via QE and twist, and still for Main Street the immediate effect was deflationary. They have baked a lot of inflation into the cake, and the eventual result is going to be that Wall Street is going to be able to purchase real assets like real estate, precious metals and similar with inflated dollars and then the inflationary impact is going to hit Main Street.
Jason's premise that the massive debt is going to result in massive deflation at some point is correct. But also the massive printing that has gone on that has not really gone into circulation but has just propped up the stock market will eventually cause inflation or stagflation. Food storage and developing survival skills - being able to do things that don't involve a computer terminal - a great idea to be ready for whatever comes.
Don't remember the under 5 guess. He did predict it would tumble down dramatically from the 40's. Should have cashed it all in then. He was spot on.
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 12 (of 11)
I hear you - I bailed in the low $30s (on the way up), was sad when it got above $40, but I'm glad I got out when I did.
- BeNotDeceived
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 12 (of 11)
The first of three wins needed to net exactly one pound. :o)Silver wrote: ↑July 6th, 2017, 8:54 pmMy guess is titanium. What do I win?BeNotDeceived wrote: ↑July 6th, 2017, 8:40 pmWhat's about $30 a pound or $5-7 by the ounce?
I paid $32 for a pound and $50 for 10 ounces, and me thinks next I'll buy 12 more lbs.
Hint = some body part of somebody you know prolly has been replaced using this amazing material.
See new thread Third Time's the Charm; same basic contest where whoever guesses closest three times gets one pound of .999 fine titanium. You think an once feels good in the hand, you should try a whole pound. I'll soon post a pic of my current experiment to use my one-pound chunk to aid replacing something bad with something better.
- iWriteStuff
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 12 (of 11)
Results are in!
And for myself, this is all I can say:
It got an epic beatdown. BeNotDeceived is the victor, with the lowest guess of $16.02. And for myself, this is all I can say:
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 12 (of 11)
I apologize for not participating, but it seems I had nothing to lose and nothing to gain by doing so.
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 12 (of 11)
Nonsense! In my book, ....except people who didn't participate! :ymdevil: :ymdevil: :ymdevil:
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 12 (of 11)
One for the win column, suppose nothing will suffice to explain my first weird guess of $13.31; that was what I once chose on a football board. Some coworkers were doing the typical buy a square for the super bowl and I was late to the party. All the seven multiples go fast i.e. 14 to 21, etc.iWriteStuff wrote: ↑July 7th, 2017, 3:03 pm Results are in!
spotsilver.jpg
It got an epic beatdown. BeNotDeceived is the victor, with the lowest guess of $16.02.
And for myself, this is all I can say:
spotsilver1.jpg
13 to 31 is about the least likely score to ever happen in a game of football and naturally it was one of the few remaining squares left. All the likely scores were long gone and I wanted to help fill up the board, so I went wth it. And lo and behold that was the score at the end of the third quarter. Denver was one of the teams and must of been over 10 years ago. I didn't win, but it was one of those weird deals. This experiment wasn't that weird, but fun nevertheless; it's not if you win, but how you played the game. Thanks for nothing. :ymhug:
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Re: Silver Contest: Week 12 (of 11)
Hey you won; here have my load of nothing. :ymparty:Older/wiser? wrote: ↑July 6th, 2017, 12:01 pm I am probably to late , but being as the prize is just glory I'll go with $15. 97 good thing I don't gamble this is to much fun
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