http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/tr ... _aug10.pdfNotably, sovereign debt problems in the euro area contributed to a dollar appreciation in foreign exchange markets and were linked to roughly an 8 percent decrease in equity prices.
Initially, the market anticipated that rates would begin to tighten in early 2011; however, this perception no longer holds and the market now anticipates that the FOMC will continue to maintain its position of exceptionally low interest rates far out into the future.
Between mid 2005 and mid 2009, when the People’s Bank of China previously loosened its grip on the renminbi-dollar exchange rate, the renminbi appreciated approximately 20 percent on both a nominal and a real basis against the dollar. (The real basis is what matters for assessing competitive patterns, because it accounts for price pressures in both the United States and China.) If this appreciation had any effect on the U.S. merchandise trade deficit, it is imperceptible in the data. The U.S. merchandise trade deficit with China continued to grow from $17.6 billion in June 2005 to around $21 billion as the global economic slump settled in and dampened worldwide trade.
Over this same time period, China’s current-account surplus rose sharply. It reached 10 percent of GDP in 2007 before narrowing in 2008 and 2009. As a result, foreign-exchange reserves fl owed into the People’s Bank. When the bank acquires foreign exchange, it pays out renminbi, which should expand China’s monetary base. Th e People’s Bank of China, however, does not let this happen. To avoid the inflationary consequences of a rapidly expanding monetary base, the bank sells bonds into the banking system, thereby off setting the consequential rise in the monetary base. Between 2005 and 2009, the People’s Bank of China prevented 43 percent of its acquisition of foreign exchange reserves from passing through to the monetary base. Had it not off set the impact of reserve accumulation on the monetary base, inflation in China would have been higher, and China’s competitive position would have been weaker.
....the engineered and planned movement of all our wealth to China....
Watchdog panel: US bailout money ended up in overseas banks
http://rawstory.com/rs/2010/0812/watchd ... eas-banks/
The great American un-recovery: Banking failures and swindling the wealth from working and middle class Americans. Household assets off by $11 trillion from 2007 peak.
http://www.mybudget360.com/great-americ ... n-dollars/
Monopoly Money and the International Banking Cartel
http://csper.wordpress.com/2010/08/12/m ... ng-cartel/
Mortgage rates hit low of 4.44 pct.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Mortgage- ... et=&ccode=
Debts Rise, and Go Unpaid, as Bust Erodes Home Equity
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Debts-Ris ... et=&ccode=
Bank repossessions drive up July foreclosures
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Bank-repo ... et=&ccode=
Foreclosure Activity Jumps, Reverses 4 Month Declining Trend
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/forecl ... ning-trend
Jobless Claims Deterioration Continues - Print At 484K Versus Expectation Of 465K, Prior Revised To 482K
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jobles ... prior-479k
New claims for unemployment aid reach 484K
http://rawstory.com/rs/2010/0812/jobles ... -february/
US Unemployment Out of Control?
http://www.rightsidenews.com/2010081211 ... ntrol.html
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/boycot ... y-outflowsAnother week, another vote of no confidence in the market. It is getting really bad: we have now had over a quarter of non-stop redemptions by mutual funds, which of course means, by end-retail investors. The problem is that now everyone is starting to notice the stench that the market is not supported by anything except momentum manipulation and primary dealer machinations. Per ICI, the week ended August 4 saw an outflow of ($2,788) MM, bringing the total to over $46 billion in domestic equity redemptions year to date. Retail is now fully boycotting stocks, as the no-volume surge of July was not even sufficient to bring one meager week of inflows, and in fact, July saw almost $16 billion in outflows. If not even a 10% surge in stocks is capable of bringing retail back into stocks, perhaps it is time the administration and the SEC ask themselves, "what will?" We can not wait to see how the market drop of this week impacts fund flows. If history is any indicator, it will not be pretty.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/trimta ... -pointlessTrimTabs does a simple yet elegant analysis that seeks to explain why US final demand is not only sluggish but declining, and is ultimately the reason why the US government needs to consistently pump more and more capital in the economy to keep GDP at best flat. TrimTabs focuses on the "consumer spendables" indicator - It consists of the sum of three components: 1. After-tax income from wages and salaries; 2. After-tax income from non-wage sources, such as capital gains, dividends, and interest; 3. Cash harvested from home equity when mortgages are refinanced. As TrimTabs shows, and this should come as a surprise to nobody, "much of the economic growth in the middle of the previous decade was fueled by an explosion of consumer debt. Consumers treated their homes like automatic teller machines—cash-out refinancings topped out at $804 billion in the four quarters ended in Q2 2006—and they borrowed freely on low-rate auto loans and credit cards given to almost anyone who could fog a mirror. Now that the era of easy consumer credit is over, the economy is resetting to a lower level of activity. We believe the interventions of the Fed and the government to try to head off this adjustment will do more harm in the long run than the adjustment itself." In other words the ongoing debate on whether the US is undergoing inflation or deflation is moot - the primary driver continues to be deleveraging, as Rick Santelli likes to shout on occasion. And all the other monetary phenomena are merely a side-effect. Alas, as long as deleveraging is the primary driver in the economy, nothing else matters: it has long been our contention that deleveraging must run its course. However, the Fed will not let that happen, and in doing so, it will attempt the last thing in its arsenal - in essence, suicide the economy, by destroying all faith in the actual medium of monetary exchange. At that point inflation, deflation and/or stagflation will be the last thing on anyone's mind.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/dodd-f ... ism-part-1The new financial overhaul bill is the greatest government takeover of the financial sector of the economy since the National Recovery Act of 1933 when Franklin Roosevelt attempted to introduce central planning in America.
More than just a new law, the Dodd-Frank “Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act” (the "Act") gives government a relatively free hand to set prices and wages, to make business decisions, to promote or eliminate businesses, and to break up businesses. It establishes a large new bureaucracy to enable the government to dictate its wishes to the industry.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1574Tropical Depression Five is in serious decline, thanks to an unexpected increase of wind shear to about 20 knots this afternoon. Long range radar out of the Florida Panhandle shows a fair amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but little organization into low-level rain bands. TD 5 has brought up to two inches of rain to the New Orleans region. The Hurricane Hunters have just left TD 5, and they found no well-defined surface circulation, a pressure that had risen since this morning's flight, and top winds of just 30 mph. It is questionable whether TD 5 really was a tropical depression for much of the day. Recent satellite images suggest that the center of the storm has relocated near some of the heavier thunderstorms, about 60 miles southeast of the Alabama/Mississippi border. If this new center does indeed become stable, TD 5 will move ashore in the warning area tonight or early Thursday morning, before the depression can develop into a tropical storm. TD 5 is still capable of dropping heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches along its path, however, since the storm is expected to slow down after landfall.
93L
The tropical wave (Invest 93) in the middle Atlantic Ocean that has been close to tropical depression status for three days has suffered a setback today, as dry air driven into the core of the storm by strong upper-level winds disrupted the circulation. The disturbance still has a well-defined surface circulation, but only a very limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which is low enough that 93L could become a tropical depression at any time during that period. NHC is giving 93L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday afternoon. A strong trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic is recurving 93L to the north, and the system should only be a concern to shipping interests.
Moscow's air clears, but it is still extraordinarily hot
A thunderstorm blew through Moscow early this morning, bringing a little rain and a very welcome shift of wind direction. The wind shift freed the city from the persistent wild fire smoke that had plagued the city for seven straight days. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 35°C (95°F) today, the 29th day in row that temperatures have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow. The average high temperature for August 11 is 21°C (69°F). Moscow's high temperatures have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average for the first eleven days of August--a truly extraordinary anomaly. There is some modest relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 30 - 31° (86 - 88°F) Thursday through Sunday. This is still 20°F above normal, but will be a welcome change from the extreme heat of the past two weeks. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show no major change to the ridge of high pressure locked in over Russia, for at least the next seven days. However, both models suggest that a trough of low pressure may be able to erode the ridge significantly 8 - 10 days from now, bringing cooler temperatures of 5°C (8°F) above average.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Natura ... &src=nhrssUnusually Intense Monsoon Rains
The first week of August 2010 brought extreme flooding and landslides to many parts of Asia. By August 11, floods in the Indus River basin had become Pakistan’s worst natural disaster to date, leaving more than 1,600 people dead and disrupting the lives of about 14 million people, reported Reuters. Across the border in northeast India, flash floods killed 185 with 400 still missing, reported BBC News. Floods in North Korea and northeast China buried farmland and destroyed homes, factories, railroads, and bridges. And in northwest China, rain triggered a massive landslide that left 702 dead with 1,042 missing, reported China’s state news agency, Xinhua. All of these disasters occurred as a result of unusually heavy monsoon rains, depicted in this image.
Made with data collected by NASA’s Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, the image shows rain rates (the intensity with which rain was falling) between August 1 and August 9, 2010, compared to average rain rates for the same period. Blue reveals areas where rain was much more intense than normal, while brown points to less intense rain.
Dark blue spots cover the regions of Pakistan, India, and China where the floods and landslides occurred. These regions received as much as 24 millimeters of rain per day above normal daily rainfall. A broad swath of very intense rain also covers Indonesia and parts of the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
All of this rain comes as part of the Asian Monsoon. The Asian Monsoon occurs because of the temperature difference between the Eurasian continent and the ocean. In the summer, the land warms much more than the ocean. Heated air over the land rises, and cool, humid air from the ocean moves in to replace it. As the humid air warms over the land, it too rises and the water condenses into rain.
Asia’s summer monsoon varies in intensity from year to year for a variety of reasons. One of the strongest influences on the Asian Monsoon is the El Niño–La Niña oscillation. During La Niña years, the Eastern Pacific is cooler than average, while the western Pacific Ocean (by Asia) is warmer. Air over the ocean is warmer, more buoyant, and more humid. It rises higher and forms more intense storms.
La Niña usually enhances the Asian Monsoon, and it may have been a factor in shaping the intense 2010 monsoon. In July 2010, La Niña conditions had developed. Ocean temperatures in the western Pacific were warmer than normal. The patterns of unusually heavy rain seen in this image are similar to rainfall patterns caused by La Niña.
Additional factors may also have influenced the 2010 monsoon rains. The northern Indian Ocean was also warmer than normal. In particular, waters off the coast of Pakistan (the Arabian Sea) were much warmer than normal in satellite-based sea surface temperature measurements taken in July 2010. These enhanced temperatures are indicative of a shorter-scale weather pattern that also enhances monsoon rains.
New Flood Warnings Raise Fears in Pakistan
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/13/world ... .html?_r=1
New rain piles on misery for China flood survivors
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/as_china_floods
Hundreds evacuated, 1 dead after flooding in Iowa
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100812/ap_ ... owa_storms
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1124509220100811The flooding has caused state transportation officials to close state and U.S. highways and the American Red Cross said Wednesday it was opening shelters in the area to help those having to flee homes hit by flooding.
The conditions were also putting key corn and soybean crops at risk, literally threatening to drown the plants. Iowa produces nearly 20 percent of the total U.S. corn crop and 15 percent of the country's beans.
http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/ ... to-floods/The corn and soybean crops in Iowa’s fields look hearty and mature to the naked eye, but Iowa State University Extension agronomist John Holmes said Wednesday that the crops still are vulnerable to flooding.
“The crops still need oxygen, so flooding of up to three or four days could easily kill the plants,” said Holmes.
He added that corn still needs nitrogen at this stage, so the leaching of nitrogen downward through wet soil remains a concern.
Until this week Iowa’s corn and soybean crops have been rated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture at 70 percent good to excellent. That means absent natural disasters, Iowa should deliver another big grain crop when the harvest begins in about six weeks.
Iowa’s corn now is at the dough stage, which is when the starch accumulation in the developing kernel causes the milky inner fluid to thicken to a pasty consistency. At this stage kernels are about 70 percent moisture before the denting, or drying stage, begins.
Of course farmers no longer have the option of replanting now that they might employ after spring flooding as late as June.
http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Foo ... /id/366979Report: Food Prices Already Starting to Skyrocket
Experts warn that overall food-price inflation is inevitable, as Wal-Mart reportedly has already hiked prices amid a recent jump in wheat prices and the failure of the Russian harvest.
The most immediate impact will be felt in the price of bread and bakery products but other food items which make use of grain will also rise, according to analysis from Verdict research. This includes some meat products where grain is used as animal feed.
Meanwhile, a recent JPMorgan survey of supermarket pricing in Virginia showed a 5.8 percent increase in average prices at Wal-Mart, which represents the most significant sequential increase since the inception of the study in January 2009, the Business Insider reported.
The survey compared a 31 item like-kind basket at a Wal-Mart Supercenter, Kroger, Safeway, Harris Teeter, and Whole Foods, the Business Insider reported.
Should wheat prices remain elevated for the next few months, shelf prices for many products could go up by 6.7 percent within a year, Verdict reported. Some items, such as croissants, could go up by as much as 11.1 percent.
Ironically, a wheat stockpile in India that could feed 210 million people for a year is starting to spoil because the government lacks enough warehouses to store it.
According to a government estimate obtained by The Associated Press, 17.8 million metric tons of wheat are exposed to the elements — stored outdoors, under tarps in India's pounding monsoon rains. The wheat could alleviate hunger in a nation where one in two children are malnourished.
Frozen jet stream links Pakistan floods, Russian fires
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2010/08/12 ... ian-fires/
http://www.adn.com/2010/08/10/1404191/r ... d-for.htmlRussian River fishery closed for season over weak red return
The worst return of red salmon to the Russian River in 33 years has convinced Alaska Department of Fish and Game biologists to shutter the popular sport fishery the rest of the season and try to unravel how one of Alaska's most consistent fisheries suddenly went belly up.
Feds CONFISCATE independent LSU scientists’ samples because project not approved by BP, others
http://www.floridaoilspilllaw.com/feds- ... -bp-others
Independent Scientists Face Restrictions When Trying to Conduct Research in Areas Affected by BP Incident
http://cryptogon.com/?p=16991
University Scientists Found Underwater Oil Plumes, the Government Said Shut Up, Don't Tell Anyone and Tried to Discredit them
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php? ... leId=20575
Matt Simmons: BP, CIA conspiracy theory suggested behind his unexpected death
http://www.examiner.com/x-33986-Politic ... cted-death
States eye license-plate cameras as source of cash
http://www.stateline.org/live/details/s ... adlines%29
Border Patrol Looking To Expand Unmanned Air Drone Operations With Department of Defense
http://narcosphere.narconews.com/notebo ... rtment-def
The Hidden Tragedy of the CIA's Experiments on Children
http://www.truth-out.org/the-hidden-tra ... ldren62208
Hidden Intelligence Operation Behind the Wikileaks Release of “Secret” Documents?
http://www.infowars.com/hidden-intellig ... documents/
US Judge OKs confession extracted by threatening suspect with rape
http://rawstory.com/rs/2010/0811/15year ... hreatened/
New superbug, ‘potentially a major global health problem,’ found in Canada
http://www.healthzone.ca/health/newsfea ... erbug?bn=1
China PLA warns U.S. over fresh military drill in region
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100812/pl_nm/us_china_usa
John Williams: Times That Try Our Souls
http://www.theenergyreport.com/pub/na/7005
Hi-Point .45 ACP Carbine
http://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2010 ... rm+Blog%29
UPDATE:
BP Is Hiding Dead Animals to Avoid Fine of $50,000 Per Dead Animal (and the Bad Publicity)
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/08/ ... -fine.html
Will BP Skip the Relief Well, Declare Mission Accomplished, and Abandon Ship Without Permanently Killing the Oil Leak?
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/08/ ... clare.html
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/16-bil ... -take-down$16 Billion 30 Year Auction Prices At 3.954%, 2.77 Bid To Cover, Lowest Primary Dealer Take Down
Today's auction of $16 billion 30 Years closed at a high yield of 3.954% (55.98% allotted at high), and came at a 2.77 Bid To Cover: the lowest since May. The yield was the third lowest in history, higher only than the February and March 2009 auctions (3.54% and 3.640%). Direct Bidders came in at 18.6% - a surprisingly high number, and bigger than the previous auction, yet nowhere near the record 29.6% from March of 2010. What was most surprising was the record low Primary Dealer participation (blue segment in attached chart) - the Fed's lapdogs took down just 35.3% of the auction: the lowest in many years, if not ever. Are the PDs turning their back on the inflation risk associated with holding LT securities, and/or do they think they would be unable to offload these to retail customers? Keep an eye on PD take down in future auctions for further indications on this.
....unless of course inflation isn't a worry.....
http://www.dallasfed.org/research/eclet ... l1008.htmlCan the Nation Stimulate Its Way to Prosperity?
The key proviso is this: what might have been. Simply put, there’s no way to know how badly the economy would have performed in the absence of fiscal stimulus and no way to prove how many jobs would have existed without stimulus.
Conventional models with standard multipliers generally peg the stimulus plan’s impact in the range specified by the council. But this is not true of all models. Some recent research finds that fiscal stimulus is especially effective when the federal funds rate is near zero, as it has been in recent times, suggesting that economic conditions might have been very bad without the stimulus plan.[3] Other research finds that fiscal stimulus has little impact even at near-zero rates because individuals understand that deficit-financed government spending will cost them later.[4]
While the overall weight of the evidence suggests the stimulus plan has provided a short-term boost, it’s unclear exactly how large this boost has been. What is clear is that stimulus funds have exacerbated near-term fiscal imbalances.
The deficit is now expected to spike to $1.4 trillion in 2009–10 and remain above $500 billion annually for the next decade, raising concerns that private-sector borrowing may be crowded out to some degree and future tax burdens may grow. Painful choices—among them, withdrawing fiscal stimulus over time—will be necessary as the economy recovers if these imbalances are to be corrected.
...in other words - NO!
...fyi - I've edited the piece below for language....
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2010/08/12 ... sam-stein/The Weinstein Company sent the Huffington Post two previously unseen letters written by Tillman’s father at the peak of frustration with the army’s investigation into his son’s death. The notes, penned to Brigadier General Gary M. Jones (the man spearheading the investigation) as well as the Senate Armed Services Committee (which oversaw Jones’s work), paint a picture of a man increasingly convinced that a massive conspiracy was emerging around the death of his son.
“You are a General,” Tillman’s father writes Jones after being presented with a briefing book of his findings. “There is no way a man like you, with your intelligence, education, military, experience, responsibilities (primarily for difficult situations), and rank… believes the conclusions reached in the March 31, 2005 Briefing Book. But your signature is on it. I assume, therefore, that you are part of this shameless bull@#$%. I embarrassed myself by treating you with respect [on] March 31, 2005. I thought your rank disservice it and anticipated something different from the new and improved investigation. I won’t act so hypocritically if we meet again.”
“In sum: @#$@%# you… and yours.”
The two letters are worth a read, if only for the insight they provide into how haphazard and mismanaged (deliberately or not) the investigations were. Tillman’s father comes off as emotional, for good reason. But the questions he raised — while conspiratorial in tone — offer compelling drama (both real life and for the upcoming movie). Take, for instance, the notion that the shooters of his son may have been blinded by the glare of the sunset.
“The shooters were always looking North or Northwest,” Tillman’s father writes. “Even in Afghanistan, the sun sets in the West – Southwest. How on God’s green earth can you add in a “glare factor” looking away from the sun that has set? (P-16) Immediately after the sunset , facing the wrong direction (North vs. Southwest), the glare impaired their vision? Don’t you need sun to have glare?”
By the spring of 2007, indeed, evidence emerged that some of Pat Tillman senior’s larger fears were driven not by emotion-driven conspiracy theories but by legitimate holes in the Army’s story.
....I caught a tiny blipit on this last night via the weather channel but they never aired the piece after advertising it.....but I've finally caught hold of the story now....
http://www.ajc.com/news/atlanta/housing ... 89653.htmlHousing crisis reaches full boil in East Point; 62 injured
Thirty thousand people turned out in East Point on Wednesday seeking applications for government-subsidized housing, and their confusion and frustration, combined with the summer heat, led to a chaotic mob scene that left 62 people injured.
At the Tri-Cities Plaza Shopping Center, emergency vehicles passed each other, transporting 20 people to hospitals. Medical and police command posts were set up on scene. East Point police wore riot gear. Officers from four other agencies supported them. Yet no arrests were made.
All of this resulted from people attempting to obtain Section 8 housing applications and, against long odds, later securing vouchers for affordable residences. Some waited in line for two days for the applications.
Renee Gray, a single mother holding her one-year-old daughter, Marion, came looking for a housing break and nearly got trampled, forcing her to run from the crowd and into the street.
"It could have been better organized," said Gray, a customer service employee. "A lot of adults lost focus.”
Jacquelyn Cuffie, 50, of Duluth, used a walker to cross the parking lot and navigate the huge gathering, determined to improve her living situation. It didn't matter how hot or crowded it got.
“It’s difficult to pay [the rent] with a disability check,” Cuffie said.
Offering applications for the first time since 2002, East Point Housing Authority officials had triple the crowd they anticipated, and one that was three-fourths of the 40,000 population of the south Fulton city. Things got out of hand when people started cutting into lines and authorities attempted to move groups to different areas.
Sgt. Cliff Chandler, East Point Police Department spokesman, said one flash point occurred early on. Authorities originally had lined up people to come into the front entrance of the Central Station Sports Cafe and receive the applications. However, when they saw the sheer number of people, the officials set up kiosks around the parking lot to hand out the applications, Chandler said.
Felecia McGhee, who came in search of her own Section 8 assistance, saw two small children trampled when people rushed the building that held the applications. When a group of people who had been waiting hours in a line were told to move to another line, people started pushing, shoving and cursing, witnesses said.
People collapsed in the heat. Emergency personnel drove up in a pickup truck and handed out bottled water. People were carried off on stretchers. A baby went into a seizure and was taken to a hospital.
Thaddeus Brookins of Atlanta dropped off his mother, Betty, a part-time furniture store employee, into the middle of the shopping center mayhem. He didn't like what he saw.
“It was terrible,” Thaddeus Brookins said. “Lot of people. People pushing people, knocking people over. People getting hurt.”
Wednesday's deluge of people seeking low-income vouchers in East Point demonstrated just how desperate the need for affordable housing has become in metro Atlanta, officials said. Some 15,000 Georgians currently are accommodated with Section 8 housing, with thousands more on waiting lists. Housing openings have been difficult to find anywhere, including rural areas.
"East Point, to me, is indicative of the problem," said Dennis Williams, a Georgia Department of Community affairs assistant commissioner. "It just goes to show you the situation is pretty dire."
Is this finally the economic collapse?
http://money.cnn.com/2010/08/11/news/ec ... /index.htm
Activists Take On Fluoridated Water in Wichita
http://www.infowars.com/activists-take- ... n-wichita/
Infowars.com Poll: Attack On Iran Imminent
http://www.infowars.com/infowars-com-po ... -imminent/
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1575The remnants of Tropical Depression Five have re-organized this morning, and the storm is pounding Southeast Louisiana with heavy rains. Radar imagery out of New Orleans shows that the remains of TD 5 have have formed some respectable low-level spiral bands that have brought heavy rains in excess of five inches in some areas. However, with the circulation center now moving over land, not much further development can occur
A record quiet start to the 2010 tropical cyclone season in the Northern Hemisphere
What is really odd about this year, though, is the lack of tropical cyclone activity across the entire Northern Hemisphere. Usually, if one ocean basin is experiencing a quiet season, one of the other ocean basins is going bonkers. That is not the case this year. Over in the Eastern Pacific, there have been five named storms and two hurricanes. The average is seven named storms and four hurricanes for this point in the season. This year's quiet season is not too surprising, since there is a moderate La Niña event underway, and La Niña conditions usually supresses Eastern Pacific hurricane activity. But over in the Western Pacific, which usually generates more tropical cyclones than any ocean basin on Earth, it has been a near-record quiet season. Just four named storms have occurred in the West Pacific this year, and the average for this date is eleven. Only one typhoon season has had fewer named storms this late in the season--1998, with just three. The total number of named storms in the Northern Hemisphere thus far this year is fifteen, which is the fewest since reliable records began in 1948. Second place belongs to 1983 and 1957, with eighteen named storms. According to an email I received from NOAA hurricane researcher Gabe Vecchi, the lack of tropical cyclones so far this year in the Northern Hemisphere is between a 1-in-80 and 1-in-100 year event.
So, what is causing this quiet tropical cyclone season? One possibility is that since Northern Hemisphere land areas have heated up to record temperatures this summer, this has created strong rising motion over the continents. This rising motion must be compensated by strong sinking motion over the adjacent oceans in order to conserve mass. Sinking air causes drying and an increase in stability. Another possibility is that the unusual jet stream configuration that is responsible for the Russia heat wave and record flooding in Pakistan is also bringing dry, stable air to the Northern Hemisphere's tropical cyclone breeding grounds. It is also possible that climate change is causing the reduction in tropical cyclone activity, for a variety of complex reasons. Computer simulations of a future warmer climate generally show a reduction in global number of tropical cyclones (though the strongest storms get stronger), and it is possible we are seeing a preview of that future climate. Or, this year's quietness may simply be natural variability. It will be interesting to see when the Russian heat wave breaks if vertical instability over the Atlantic increases back to normal levels. Current forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models project the Russian heat wave to break late next week.
Moscow's air remains clear; coolest temperatures in two weeks
Moscow's winds remained favorable for keeping smoke away from the city today, and temperatures "cooled" to at Moscow's Domodedovo airport to 33°C (91°F)--the lowest maximum temperature since a high of 32°C (90°F) was recorded on July 30. Moscow's airport has reached a maximum temperature of 30°C (86°F) or higher for 35 consecutive days now (at Moscow's official observing site, the Moscow Observatory, this string is 30 days.) Moscow's average high temperature for August 12 is 20°C (68°F). Moscow's high temperatures have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average so far this August--a truly extraordinary anomaly for a country so famous for its notorious cold weather. The latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 30 - 33°C (86 - 91°F) Thursday through Monday. This is still 23°F above normal, but will be a welcome change from the extreme heat of the past two weeks. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models continue to suggest that a series of troughs of low pressure will begin to attack the ridge of high pressure anchored over Russia beginning on Wednesday, bringing cooler temperatures just 5°C (8°F) above average to Russia late next week. By ten days from now, the ECMWF model shows a strong trough of low pressure over Moscow, and a end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010.
UPDATE 2:
Are The Economic Riots That So Many People Have Been Warning Us About Already Starting?
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archiv ... y-starting
Foreclosure Crisis Spreads Across U.S.; Idaho Defaults Mount
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-1 ... inois.html
The Horror Show
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/10/opini ... ef=opinion
College, Inc.
http://www.mikekarnj.com/blog/2010/08/11/college-inc/
Corporate Pension Bomb Set To Explode
http://www.forbes.com/2010/08/11/pensio ... gle+Reader
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Natura ... &src=nhrssSmoke over Western Russia
Though a plume of smoke still stretched across hundreds of kilometers, conditions in central Russia appeared to be much better on August 12, 2010. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite detected two clusters of intense fires when it acquired this photo-like image. The fires are outlined in red.
The first cluster of fires is southeast of Moscow. Though the fires were producing thick smoke when MODIS captured this image, the smoke was blowing away from the city. Moscow appeared to have relatively smoke-free skies compared to previous days.
The second cluster of fires is in the Ural Mountains. The smoke from these fires extends south into Kazakhstan. Apart from the thick plume of smoke that seems to connect the two fire regions, a lighter pall of smoke hangs over southern Russia and northern Kazakhstan.
Russians fear worst as fires reach Chernobyl fallout zone
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 50130.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE67937Y20100810Russia fires cause "brown cloud," may hit Arctic
(Reuters) - Smoke from forest fires smothering Moscow adds to health problems of "brown clouds" from Asia to the Amazon and Russian soot may stoke global warming by hastening a thaw of Arctic ice, environmental experts say.
"Health effects of such clouds are huge," said Veerabhadran Ramanathan, chair of a U.N. Environment Program (UNEP) study of "brown clouds" blamed for dimming sunlight in cities such as Beijing or New Delhi and hitting crop growth in Asia.
The clouds -- a haze of pollution from cars or coal-fired power plants, forest fires and wood and other materials burned for cooking and heating -- are near-permanent and blamed for causing chronic respiratory and heart diseases.
"In Asia just the indoor smoke - because people cook with firewood - causes over a million deaths a year," Ramanathan, of the University of California, San Diego, told Reuters.
Moscow's top health official said on Monday that about 700 people were dying every day, twice as many as in normal weather, as Russia grapples with its worst heat wave in 130 years.
Russian President Dmitri Medvedev says a full one-quarter of Russia's grain crops have been destroyed by weeks of drought and wildfires, leaving many Russian farmers close to bankruptcy.
Mr. Medvedev spoke Thursday to farmers and grain traders in southern Russia, calling the situation "difficult" and even "extreme."
He did not quantify the grain losses in his address. But official estimates show more than 43 million hectares were sown for this year's harvests.
http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2010/08 ... osses.html
Wheat, Corn Stockpiles Dwindle as Russia Drought Curbs Output
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-1 ... grows.html
German grain harvest to drop 12% this year
http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0811/wheat.html
http://www.herald-mail.com/?cmd=display ... ormat=html80-year-old farmer says ‘this is worst drought I ever saw’
The Interagency Drought Information Center has categorized conditions as a “severe drought” in Washington County and the eastern half of West Virginia’s Eastern Panhandle, according to a drought information statement from the National Weather Service.
The conditions are the result of Bermuda high pressure that has kept a dry weather pattern across the area since the beginning of June, the NWS statement said.
“This year, everything’s going to be just fodder feed for cattle,” he said, explaining that the drought’s early start in June prevented corn from pollinating.
Jeff Semler, extension educator with the University of Maryland’s agricultural extension office on Sharpsburg Pike, called the combination of heat and dry weather a “double whammy.”
Summer crops like corn can withstand heat, but not the dryness that this summer’s heat has exacerbated, Semler said.
“Any moisture we do get is followed by such heat that it dries out almost as fast as we get it,” he said.
As a result of the drought, farmers have had to harvest corn solids earlier than usual and the crop, which is chopped and preserved for livestock feed, is yielding lower quantities as well as lower quality, Semler said.
Corn solids typically yield more than 20 tons per acre, but a typical yield this year has been 6 tons to 8 tons per acre, he said.
Hotter-burning sun warming the planet
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/200 ... 714-6334r/
http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/daw ... i-un-ss-05Pakistan flood crisis bigger than tsunami, Haiti: UN
ISLAMABAD: The number of people suffering from the massive floods in Pakistan could exceed the combined total in three recent megadisasters - the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the 2005 Kashmir earthquake and the 2010 Haiti earthquake - the United Nations said Monday.
The death toll in each of those three disasters was much higher than the 1,500 people killed so far in the floods that first hit Pakistan two weeks ago. But the Pakistani government estimates that over 13 million people have been affected - two million more than the other disasters combined.
The comparison helps frame the scale of the crisis, which has overwhelmed the Pakistani government and has generated widespread anger from flood victims who have complained that aid is not reaching them quickly enough or at all.
''It looks like the number of people affected in this crisis is higher than the Haiti earthquake, the tsunami or the Pakistan earthquake, and if the toll is as high as the one given by the government, it's higher than the three of them combined,'' Maurizio Giuliano, spokesman for the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, told The Associated Press.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-1 ... udied.htmlGulf of Mexico `Dead Zone' Grows as Spill Impact Is Studied
The Gulf of Mexico faces a renewed and enlarged threat to marine life: a low-oxygen “dead zone” about the size of Massachusetts, caused by chemical runoff into the Mississippi River that flows into the sea.
The dead zone, which occurs in Gulf waters in summer and is unrelated to BP Plc’s oil spill, covers an area twice as large as last year, according to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration study released this week. The low-oxygen area this year is the fifth-largest since measurements began in 1985.
http://newsfeed.time.com/2010/08/12/bzz ... go/?hpt=T2Bzzzzzz...Smack! Too Many Mosquitoes Flying Around Chicago
"This is the worst mosquito outbreak in 20 years," Laura McGowan, a spokeswoman for Clarke Environmental Mosquito Management of Roselle, Illinois told the Chicago Tribune. "The (mosquito) traps are catching three to four times the amount that's usually considered a nuisance." (See pictures of bug cuisine.)
Thoughtcrime: D.C. Reporter Suspended for Accurate Report on BP’s Donations to Obama
http://bigjournalism.com/rbluey/2010/08 ... -to-obama/
US Census to Visit 1 in 700 Homes with Laptop & Questions
http://educate-yourself.org/cn/censusne ... ug10.shtml
Heavy War Chatter Coming to America
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2010/08/12 ... o-america/
Eyes on the skies over Iran's reactor
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LH10Ak03.html
The morning after the attack on Iran - How will the international community respond the next day?
http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/op ... n-1.307474
'Iran to give Hizbullah weapons'
http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?ID=184538
Chinese General Says U.S. Carrier in Yellow Sea May Result in Retaliation
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-1 ... ation.html
Rare Earth Elements: The World Is Rapidly Running Out And China Has Most Of The Remaining Supply
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/arch ... ing-supply
Russian S-300 systems in Abkhazia threaten regional balance of forces - Georgia
http://en.rian.ru/mlitary_news/20100811/160161949.html
Drowning in soda: America's health problems made far worse by massive soda consumption
http://www.naturalnews.com/029439_soda_ ... betes.html
'Forget the pizza parties,' Teens tell churches
http://www.usatoday.com/news/religion/2 ... csp=34news
Two-Thirds of Global Population Live in Religiously Restrictive Countries
http://www.christianpost.com/article/20 ... index.html
