Eight dead as South Carolina hit by 'once in a millennium' floods
Governor Nikki Haley calls on people to stay inside their homes
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Last modified on Monday 5 October 2015 05.48 EDT
A “once-in-a-millennium” downpour has flooded large parts of South Carolina, causing at least seven deaths.
The storm had dumped more than 18 inches (45 cm) of rain in parts of central South Carolina by early Sunday. The state climatologist forecast another 2 to 6 inches (5 to 15 cm) through Monday as the rainfall began to slacken.
South Carolina hit with major flooding amid unrelenting Joaquin-fueled rains
Read more
The state’s governor, Nikki Haley, said parts of the state were hit with rainfall that would be expected to occur once in 1,000 years, with the Congaree river running at its highest level since 1936.
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18 the dam bursts in North Carolina
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Dr. Jeff Masters
South Carolina Flooding: Overcreek Dam Fails in Columbia, Forcing Residents to Flee; State's Death Toll Rises to 11
Sean Breslin
Published: October 6, 2015
Residents near one Columbia, South Carolina, lake were told to flee Monday afternoon, as a dam was about to break, potentially putting thousands in the path of millions of gallons of water.
South Carolina Rain Totals
Those new evacuation orders were issued after concern that the Overcreek dam at Forest Acres could breach. Minutes later, the dam broke, becoming the 18th dam to breach or fail in the Palmetto State since Saturday.
“I believe that things will get worse before they get better,” Columbia Mayor Steve Benjamin said Monday. “Eventually the floods will abate, but then we have to access the damage, and I anticipate that damage will probably be
2.
Study Ties Warming Temps to Uptick in Huge Wildfires
Published: October 5th, 2015
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/warm ... eaks-19521" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Catastrophic wildfires in the Western U.S. are often discussed in superlatives these days, with blazes burning land more violently and more frequently in recent years than at any point on record. Those changes are considered partly driven by global warming, and a new University of Wyoming study shows that even the smallest increase in average temperature — 0.5°C (0.9°F) — could bring a dramatic increase in wildfire activity at higher elevations
who are climate change holocaust deniers
Google gates draise FBI voter fraud
1.
18 the dam bursts in North Carolina
http://www.wunderground.com/news/south- ... ing-update" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Dr. Jeff Masters
South Carolina Flooding: Overcreek Dam Fails in Columbia, Forcing Residents to Flee; State's Death Toll Rises to 11
Sean Breslin
Published: October 6, 2015
Residents near one Columbia, South Carolina, lake were told to flee Monday afternoon, as a dam was about to break, potentially putting thousands in the path of millions of gallons of water.
South Carolina Rain Totals
Those new evacuation orders were issued after concern that the Overcreek dam at Forest Acres could breach. Minutes later, the dam broke, becoming the 18th dam to breach or fail in the Palmetto State since Saturday.
“I believe that things will get worse before they get better,” Columbia Mayor Steve Benjamin said Monday. “Eventually the floods will abate, but then we have to access the damage, and I anticipate that damage will probably be
2.
Study Ties Warming Temps to Uptick in Huge Wildfires
Published: October 5th, 2015
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/warm ... eaks-19521" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Catastrophic wildfires in the Western U.S. are often discussed in superlatives these days, with blazes burning land more violently and more frequently in recent years than at any point on record. Those changes are considered partly driven by global warming, and a new University of Wyoming study shows that even the smallest increase in average temperature — 0.5°C (0.9°F) — could bring a dramatic increase in wildfire activity at higher elevations
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We’re Gonna Need a Bigger Graph — Global Sea Level Rise Just Went off the Chart
From end 2014 through Fall of 2015 global sea levels surged. Building heat hitting +1 C above 1880s averages in the atmosphere-ocean system continued to set off a range of what appear to be ramping impacts. Thermal expansion grew more dramatic as oceans continued to heat up during what may be a record El Nino year. Rates of land ice melt continued to increase — providing a greater and greater fraction of overall global sea level rise. And global ocean currents showed signs of a melt-spurred change — which resulted in an uneven distribution of this overall rise.
We’re Going to Need A Bigger Graph
During that less than one year time, seas rose by fully 1 centimeter. That’s three times the ‘normal’ rate that’s been roughly ongoing since the early 1990s. A big bump that’s now part of a three-and-a-half-year, 3-centimeter surge. One more sign that global sea level rise is starting to really ramp up.
AVISO Sea level rise
(Global sea level rise since 1992 hits past the 8 centimeter mark in the AVISO altimetric graph. Image source: AVISO.)
This big, one-centimeter, jump topped the previous AVISO graph, which went up to 8 centimeters, forcing the measure to generate a new graph with a 9 centimeter top like. In other words, ‘we’re gonna need a bigger graph’ (See the old, smaller, graph here). Unfortunately, with some of the world’s top scientists predicting the potential for an exponentially increasing rate of sea level rise through this Century, it appears that ‘we’re gonna need a bigger graph’ may well become the scientific rallying cry of the age.
Possibility of Exponential Increase in Rate of Sea Level Rise
This year’s seemingly-staggering, 1 centimeter and counting, jump in sea level in less than one year, if maintained over the course of a century would result in a more than 1 meter global rise. Sadly, many new studies on the rate of glacier destabilization in Antarctica and Greenland hint that such a significant jump in sea level is not only likely, but may even be significantly exceeded under business as usual or even a moderately curtailed rate of fossil fuel burning.
A new study led by former NASA GISS head Dr. James Hansen points to the possibility of as much as 3 meters of sea level rise by mid Century and 7 meters or more of sea level rise by end Century even if the global economy somewhat steps off its current high trajectory of fossil fuel burning.
hansen-sea-level-rise
(Steadily ramping sea level rise that may be the start of an exponential curve. Image source: Research Conducted by Dr. James Hansen.)
Such massive rates of sea level rise would clearly be catastrophic.
In such cases, we’d start to see these kinds of exponential increases really begin to ramp up over the next 10, 20, and 30 years. And, given the rather large bumps we’re seeing in the AVISO measure for the past 3 and a half years, it’s possible we’re at the start of one of these potential step changes.
Links:
AVISO Sea Level Rise
Halfway to 2 C — World Approaching Dangerous Climate Milestone
Global Sea Level Rise Going Exponential?
Human-Warmed Southern Ocean Takes Aim at East Antarctica
Warning From Scientists: Age of Superstorms, Rapid Sea Level Rise Likely on the Way
Dr. James Hansen Columbia Universit
We’re Gonna Need a Bigger Graph — Global Sea Level Rise Just Went off the Chart
From end 2014 through Fall of 2015 global sea levels surged. Building heat hitting +1 C above 1880s averages in the atmosphere-ocean system continued to set off a range of what appear to be ramping impacts. Thermal expansion grew more dramatic as oceans continued to heat up during what may be a record El Nino year. Rates of land ice melt continued to increase — providing a greater and greater fraction of overall global sea level rise. And global ocean currents showed signs of a melt-spurred change — which resulted in an uneven distribution of this overall rise.
We’re Going to Need A Bigger Graph
During that less than one year time, seas rose by fully 1 centimeter. That’s three times the ‘normal’ rate that’s been roughly ongoing since the early 1990s. A big bump that’s now part of a three-and-a-half-year, 3-centimeter surge. One more sign that global sea level rise is starting to really ramp up.
AVISO Sea level rise
(Global sea level rise since 1992 hits past the 8 centimeter mark in the AVISO altimetric graph. Image source: AVISO.)
This big, one-centimeter, jump topped the previous AVISO graph, which went up to 8 centimeters, forcing the measure to generate a new graph with a 9 centimeter top like. In other words, ‘we’re gonna need a bigger graph’ (See the old, smaller, graph here). Unfortunately, with some of the world’s top scientists predicting the potential for an exponentially increasing rate of sea level rise through this Century, it appears that ‘we’re gonna need a bigger graph’ may well become the scientific rallying cry of the age.
Possibility of Exponential Increase in Rate of Sea Level Rise
This year’s seemingly-staggering, 1 centimeter and counting, jump in sea level in less than one year, if maintained over the course of a century would result in a more than 1 meter global rise. Sadly, many new studies on the rate of glacier destabilization in Antarctica and Greenland hint that such a significant jump in sea level is not only likely, but may even be significantly exceeded under business as usual or even a moderately curtailed rate of fossil fuel burning.
A new study led by former NASA GISS head Dr. James Hansen points to the possibility of as much as 3 meters of sea level rise by mid Century and 7 meters or more of sea level rise by end Century even if the global economy somewhat steps off its current high trajectory of fossil fuel burning.
hansen-sea-level-rise
(Steadily ramping sea level rise that may be the start of an exponential curve. Image source: Research Conducted by Dr. James Hansen.)
Such massive rates of sea level rise would clearly be catastrophic.
In such cases, we’d start to see these kinds of exponential increases really begin to ramp up over the next 10, 20, and 30 years. And, given the rather large bumps we’re seeing in the AVISO measure for the past 3 and a half years, it’s possible we’re at the start of one of these potential step changes.
Links:
AVISO Sea Level Rise
Halfway to 2 C — World Approaching Dangerous Climate Milestone
Global Sea Level Rise Going Exponential?
Human-Warmed Southern Ocean Takes Aim at East Antarctica
Warning From Scientists: Age of Superstorms, Rapid Sea Level Rise Likely on the Way
Dr. James Hansen Columbia Universit
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10 green leaders on the best ways you can fight climate change
We asked people at the forefront of the climate movement for simple steps ordinary people can take to make a difference
Second day at Balcombe anti-fracking protest camp
A child uses flowers to decorate an anti-fracking message outside the Balcombe drilling site,
Thursday 8 October 2015 04.39 EDT Last modified on Thursday 8 October 2015 07.25 EDT
Caroline Lucas, MP for Brighton Pavilion and former leader of the Green Party
1) Go to Paris this December
“The climate summit in Paris later this year will see leaders from across the world come together in an attempt to thrash out a deal to cut global carbon emissions. To help put pressure on the ‘men in grey suits’, I’ll be taking part in the mass demonstrations on the Parisian streets that will take place alongside the summit.”
Poster Climate Justice march in Paris on 12 December 2015 during COP21
Paris Climate Justice march poster. Photograph: Nicolas Lampert/350.org
Take the “climate train” to Paris with Friends of the Earth
Join the mass mobilisation at the Paris climate summit
2) Support nationalisation of the railways
“I want to see a reversal of the trend which has seen the cost of travelling by bus and train soar while car travel, which has far higher carbon emissions per mile travelled, has become cheaper. Excellent public transport is possible – and bringing the railways back into public hands is a crucial first step in giving people cheaper, reliable and convenient options that don’t require driving. One bill I’ve put before MPs would bring our railways back into public ownership, with the second reading on 22 January.”
Ask your MP to support the bill
3) Push MPs to divest their pensions
“The trustees of the MPs’ pension scheme don’t fully disclose where they invest our retirement funds, but we know that our savings are exposed to oil, coal and gas. I’m going to continue my campaign in parliament to pull our pension money out of fossil fuels.”
Urge your MP to sign the early day motion
Dale Vince, founder of renewable energy company Ecotricity
“I’m reminded of Paul Simon’s song, 50 Ways to Leave Your Lover. There are lots of options and it’s really quite easy. But there are three things between them that make up the lion’s share, over 80% of carbon emissions – energy, transport and food.”
Power your home with green energy
“So all you really have to do is power your home with green energy instead of the brown stuff and you’ll have taken care of the biggest single source of carbon emissions in Britain today.
Find out how to switch to renewable electricity
2. Cycle, bus, train, car share – or drive an electric car
“Next look at how you get about: walk, cycle, bus, train, or car share where you can. But its not all about giving stuff up – electric cars are great fun to drive, far superior to the ones we’re used to, and zero emissions if you power them with green energy.”
Find out more about electric cars and find your nearest charging station
3. Go vegan
“Thirdly look at what you eat. The meat and dairy industries are massive polluters. Here (at least on the face of it) it is about giving stuff up. But the good news is it’s stuff that’s killing you. There’s no shortage of scientific evidence for that. And there’s a world of food to discover when you move on from ‘meat and two veg’ - there’s more to gain than lose here.
Take the Meat Free Mondays challenge
Watch the documentary Cowspiracy to find out more
Asad Rehman, campaigner and spokesperson for Friends of the Earth at the UN’s climate change talks
1. Call for the release of environmental activists
“Each week, about two activists are killed in countries around the world for defending the environment and their rights, with many more imprisoned. You can take action through Friends of the Earth’s international network of groups.”
Join campaigns calling for the release of imprisoned environmental activists
2. Stand in solidarity with refugees
“It’s the actions of our governments and businesses which are creating this crisis. The International Red Cross says more people are already being made refugees due to environmental issues. We need to open our borders and homes to climate and environmental refugees and you can push your own MP to back support for those fleeing their homes.”
Get advice from Refugee Action on how best you can help
3. Join a local divestment campaign
“Help stop the financing of multinational fossil fuel companies: tell your MP that instead of handing our taxes over to dirty fossil fuel companies through local authority pension fund investments, you want the money to be invested in renewable energy.”
Join a local divestment campaign
An activist at an anti-fracking rally
An activist at an anti-fracking rally outside the Houses of Parliament in central London, January 2015. Photograph: Leon Neal/AFP/Getty Images
Baroness Bryony Worthington, author of the UK’s Climate Change Act, Labour peer and founder of climate change organisation Sandbag
1. Join a political party
Advertisement
“First and foremost we should act as concerned citizens and put pressure on politicians. It doesn’t matter which party. Ask existing and prospective candidates for election to take an ambitious stance on climate change – or stand for election yourself!”
2. Buy and cancel a pollution permit
“EU factories and power stations now have their emissions capped – we can remove pollution permits from the hands of would-be polluters by buying and cancelling emissions allowances.”
In the European Union, the emissions from heavy industry and power plants are restricted by the emissions trading scheme (ETS). Permits give emitters the right to release one tonne of CO2 into the atmosphere. But the ETS is widely considered to have failed because there is an oversupply of permits – traded by companies on a market – which has lead to a drop in the price companies must pay for their emissions. Campaigners say that the permits need to be taken out of the system and that citizens can demonstrate this by doing it them
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/ ... ate-change" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
10 green leaders on the best ways you can fight climate change
We asked people at the forefront of the climate movement for simple steps ordinary people can take to make a difference
Second day at Balcombe anti-fracking protest camp
A child uses flowers to decorate an anti-fracking message outside the Balcombe drilling site,
Thursday 8 October 2015 04.39 EDT Last modified on Thursday 8 October 2015 07.25 EDT
Caroline Lucas, MP for Brighton Pavilion and former leader of the Green Party
1) Go to Paris this December
“The climate summit in Paris later this year will see leaders from across the world come together in an attempt to thrash out a deal to cut global carbon emissions. To help put pressure on the ‘men in grey suits’, I’ll be taking part in the mass demonstrations on the Parisian streets that will take place alongside the summit.”
Poster Climate Justice march in Paris on 12 December 2015 during COP21
Paris Climate Justice march poster. Photograph: Nicolas Lampert/350.org
Take the “climate train” to Paris with Friends of the Earth
Join the mass mobilisation at the Paris climate summit
2) Support nationalisation of the railways
“I want to see a reversal of the trend which has seen the cost of travelling by bus and train soar while car travel, which has far higher carbon emissions per mile travelled, has become cheaper. Excellent public transport is possible – and bringing the railways back into public hands is a crucial first step in giving people cheaper, reliable and convenient options that don’t require driving. One bill I’ve put before MPs would bring our railways back into public ownership, with the second reading on 22 January.”
Ask your MP to support the bill
3) Push MPs to divest their pensions
“The trustees of the MPs’ pension scheme don’t fully disclose where they invest our retirement funds, but we know that our savings are exposed to oil, coal and gas. I’m going to continue my campaign in parliament to pull our pension money out of fossil fuels.”
Urge your MP to sign the early day motion
Dale Vince, founder of renewable energy company Ecotricity
“I’m reminded of Paul Simon’s song, 50 Ways to Leave Your Lover. There are lots of options and it’s really quite easy. But there are three things between them that make up the lion’s share, over 80% of carbon emissions – energy, transport and food.”
Power your home with green energy
“So all you really have to do is power your home with green energy instead of the brown stuff and you’ll have taken care of the biggest single source of carbon emissions in Britain today.
Find out how to switch to renewable electricity
2. Cycle, bus, train, car share – or drive an electric car
“Next look at how you get about: walk, cycle, bus, train, or car share where you can. But its not all about giving stuff up – electric cars are great fun to drive, far superior to the ones we’re used to, and zero emissions if you power them with green energy.”
Find out more about electric cars and find your nearest charging station
3. Go vegan
“Thirdly look at what you eat. The meat and dairy industries are massive polluters. Here (at least on the face of it) it is about giving stuff up. But the good news is it’s stuff that’s killing you. There’s no shortage of scientific evidence for that. And there’s a world of food to discover when you move on from ‘meat and two veg’ - there’s more to gain than lose here.
Take the Meat Free Mondays challenge
Watch the documentary Cowspiracy to find out more
Asad Rehman, campaigner and spokesperson for Friends of the Earth at the UN’s climate change talks
1. Call for the release of environmental activists
“Each week, about two activists are killed in countries around the world for defending the environment and their rights, with many more imprisoned. You can take action through Friends of the Earth’s international network of groups.”
Join campaigns calling for the release of imprisoned environmental activists
2. Stand in solidarity with refugees
“It’s the actions of our governments and businesses which are creating this crisis. The International Red Cross says more people are already being made refugees due to environmental issues. We need to open our borders and homes to climate and environmental refugees and you can push your own MP to back support for those fleeing their homes.”
Get advice from Refugee Action on how best you can help
3. Join a local divestment campaign
“Help stop the financing of multinational fossil fuel companies: tell your MP that instead of handing our taxes over to dirty fossil fuel companies through local authority pension fund investments, you want the money to be invested in renewable energy.”
Join a local divestment campaign
An activist at an anti-fracking rally
An activist at an anti-fracking rally outside the Houses of Parliament in central London, January 2015. Photograph: Leon Neal/AFP/Getty Images
Baroness Bryony Worthington, author of the UK’s Climate Change Act, Labour peer and founder of climate change organisation Sandbag
1. Join a political party
Advertisement
“First and foremost we should act as concerned citizens and put pressure on politicians. It doesn’t matter which party. Ask existing and prospective candidates for election to take an ambitious stance on climate change – or stand for election yourself!”
2. Buy and cancel a pollution permit
“EU factories and power stations now have their emissions capped – we can remove pollution permits from the hands of would-be polluters by buying and cancelling emissions allowances.”
In the European Union, the emissions from heavy industry and power plants are restricted by the emissions trading scheme (ETS). Permits give emitters the right to release one tonne of CO2 into the atmosphere. But the ETS is widely considered to have failed because there is an oversupply of permits – traded by companies on a market – which has lead to a drop in the price companies must pay for their emissions. Campaigners say that the permits need to be taken out of the system and that citizens can demonstrate this by doing it them
-
msfreeh
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Re: Heat is Online
Dr. Jeff Masters
Weather Blogs
News Stories
Infographics
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Start a Blog
My Favorite Blogs
Deadly Worldwide Coral Bleaching Episode Underway--Earth's 3rd on Record
By: Bob Henson, 12:47 PM GMT on October 09, 2015
Earth is entering its third worldwide coral bleaching event of the last 20 years--a disturbing example of how a warming planet can harm vital ecosystems--NOAA announced on Thursday. NOAA also released an eight-month outlook that projects even more bleaching to come in 2016. The only other global-scale bleachings in the modern era of observations happened in 1998 and 2010. Global bleaching is defined as an event that causes bleaching in each of the planet’s major c...
Heat Climate Change
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Updated: 4:01 PM GMT on October 09, 2015
View Full Blog Entry — View Comments (78)
Ex-Hurricane Oho Going Where Few Hurricanes Have Gone Before: Alaska
By: Jeff Masters, 3:45 PM GMT on October 08, 2015
Alaska and British Columbia are on alert to receive a very unusual dose of tropical weather: the remains of Hurricane Oho, which are on track to hurtle into the Alaska Panhandle on Friday evening. Oho completed the transition from a hurricane to an extratropical storm with 70 mph winds on Thursday morning, and after short period of weakening, is expected to interact with a powerful jet stream over the Gulf of Alaska and intensify on Friday afternoon off the coast of...
Hurricane
Updated: 10:41 PM GMT on October 08, 2015
View Full Blog Entry — View Comments (196)
Last Known Position of the Missing Ship El Faro: the Eyewall of Category 3 Joaquin
By: Jeff Masters, 4:12 PM GMT on October 07, 2015
When the container ship El Faro left Jacksonville, Florida early on the morning of September 30, 2015, Tropical Storm Joaquin, with top winds of 70 mph, was located a few hundred miles northeast of the Central Bahama Islands. Joaquin was forecast to move west-southwest at 6 mph towards the islands and intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by the next morning. The Captain knew he was charting a course that would take him within 200 miles of what was expected to be a ...
Hurricane
Updated: 7:02 PM GMT on October 07, 2015
View Full Blog Entry — View Comments (317)
Why Did the ECMWF Forecast Joaquin So Well?
By: Bob Henson, 8:35 PM GMT on October 06, 2015
The post-mortems have begun on how well Hurricane Joaquin was predicted, and one of the key themes is why the flagship global model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) beat NOAA’s Global Forecast System (GFS) to the punch in forecasting that Joaquin would remain well offshore. On Wednesday, September 30, less than six days from a potential landfall, the ECMWF operational model was consistently keeping Joaquin offshore, even as the GFS...
Hurricane
Weather Blogs
News Stories
Infographics
Posters
Start a Blog
My Favorite Blogs
Deadly Worldwide Coral Bleaching Episode Underway--Earth's 3rd on Record
By: Bob Henson, 12:47 PM GMT on October 09, 2015
Earth is entering its third worldwide coral bleaching event of the last 20 years--a disturbing example of how a warming planet can harm vital ecosystems--NOAA announced on Thursday. NOAA also released an eight-month outlook that projects even more bleaching to come in 2016. The only other global-scale bleachings in the modern era of observations happened in 1998 and 2010. Global bleaching is defined as an event that causes bleaching in each of the planet’s major c...
Heat Climate Change
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Updated: 4:01 PM GMT on October 09, 2015
View Full Blog Entry — View Comments (78)
Ex-Hurricane Oho Going Where Few Hurricanes Have Gone Before: Alaska
By: Jeff Masters, 3:45 PM GMT on October 08, 2015
Alaska and British Columbia are on alert to receive a very unusual dose of tropical weather: the remains of Hurricane Oho, which are on track to hurtle into the Alaska Panhandle on Friday evening. Oho completed the transition from a hurricane to an extratropical storm with 70 mph winds on Thursday morning, and after short period of weakening, is expected to interact with a powerful jet stream over the Gulf of Alaska and intensify on Friday afternoon off the coast of...
Hurricane
Updated: 10:41 PM GMT on October 08, 2015
View Full Blog Entry — View Comments (196)
Last Known Position of the Missing Ship El Faro: the Eyewall of Category 3 Joaquin
By: Jeff Masters, 4:12 PM GMT on October 07, 2015
When the container ship El Faro left Jacksonville, Florida early on the morning of September 30, 2015, Tropical Storm Joaquin, with top winds of 70 mph, was located a few hundred miles northeast of the Central Bahama Islands. Joaquin was forecast to move west-southwest at 6 mph towards the islands and intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by the next morning. The Captain knew he was charting a course that would take him within 200 miles of what was expected to be a ...
Hurricane
Updated: 7:02 PM GMT on October 07, 2015
View Full Blog Entry — View Comments (317)
Why Did the ECMWF Forecast Joaquin So Well?
By: Bob Henson, 8:35 PM GMT on October 06, 2015
The post-mortems have begun on how well Hurricane Joaquin was predicted, and one of the key themes is why the flagship global model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) beat NOAA’s Global Forecast System (GFS) to the punch in forecasting that Joaquin would remain well offshore. On Wednesday, September 30, less than six days from a potential landfall, the ECMWF operational model was consistently keeping Joaquin offshore, even as the GFS...
Hurricane
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HomeWeather NewsStory
Weather News
Denver's unseasonably warm weather sets record high Sunday
Dry warm weather is expected throughout the week, and little chance of much-needed rain, says NWS.
Posted: 10/11/2015 01:30:24 PM MDTAdd a Comment | Updated: about 4 hours ago
The weather from the Denver Post balcony on Sunday, Oct. 11
» Colorado Weather News
Sunday's unseasonably warm weather beat a 85 degree record for this date set in 1975 and again in 1996, according to the National Weather Service.
At 1:47 p.m., the temperature topped the record with a reading of 87 degrees, sai
HomeWeather NewsStory
Weather News
Denver's unseasonably warm weather sets record high Sunday
Dry warm weather is expected throughout the week, and little chance of much-needed rain, says NWS.
Posted: 10/11/2015 01:30:24 PM MDTAdd a Comment | Updated: about 4 hours ago
The weather from the Denver Post balcony on Sunday, Oct. 11
» Colorado Weather News
Sunday's unseasonably warm weather beat a 85 degree record for this date set in 1975 and again in 1996, according to the National Weather Service.
At 1:47 p.m., the temperature topped the record with a reading of 87 degrees, sai
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msfreeh
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El Niño southern oscillation
El Niño could leave 4 million people in Pacific without food or drinking water
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Papua New Guinea drought has already claimed two dozen lives and looming El Niño weather pattern could be as severe as in 1997-98, when 23,000 people died
PNG drought
Children at Algi village in Papua New Guinea. PNG is in the midst of what could be its worst drought in close to 20 years.
Sunday 11 October 2015 20.19 EDT
Last modified on Monday 12 October 2015 00.25 EDT
Two dozen people have already died from hunger and drinking contaminated water in drought-stricken Papua New Guinea, but the looming El Niño crisis could leave more than four million people across the Pacific without enough food or clean water.
The El Niño weather pattern – when waters in the eastern tropical Pacific ocean become warmer, driving extreme weather conditions – may be as severe as in 1997-98, when an estimated 23,000 people died, forecasters believe.
Record El Niño set to cause hunger for 10 million poorest, Oxfam warns
Read more
In Papua New Guinea’s Chimbu province in the highlands region, a prolonged drought has been exacerbated by sudden and severe frosts which have killed off almost all crops. The provincial disaster centre has confirmed 24 people have died from starvation and drinking contaminated water.
Provincial disaster co-ordinator Michael Ire Appa told RadioNZ he feared the death toll could even be higher.
“The drought has been here for almost three months now and in areas that were affected by the drought there’s a serious food shortage, including water, and some of the districts have not reported, so there may be more [deaths] than that,” he said.
Two highlands provinces have already declared a state of emergency.
Oxfam Australia’s climate change policy advisor Dr Simon Bradshaw said many parts of PNG would run out of food in two or three months, but in some areas there was as little as a month’s food left, and few ways to get more in.
“In the highland areas people are almost exclusively reliant on subsistence farming, farming of sweet potatoes. We do know that water is becoming very scarce, that’s of course impacting food production, and PNG is almost entirely dependent on its own food – I think 83% of its food is produced in-country – so any hit on food production poses immediate challenges in terms of food security.”
Research on Andes ice cap in Peru reveals extreme weather’s global impact. Link to video
Over the coming months, the El Niño pattern will bring more rain, flooding and higher sea levels to countries near the equator, raising the risk of inundation for low-lying atolls already feeling the impacts of climate change.
At the same time, the countries of the Pacific south-west – which have larger populations – will be significantly drier a
El Niño could leave 4 million people in Pacific without food or drinking water
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/ ... king-water" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Papua New Guinea drought has already claimed two dozen lives and looming El Niño weather pattern could be as severe as in 1997-98, when 23,000 people died
PNG drought
Children at Algi village in Papua New Guinea. PNG is in the midst of what could be its worst drought in close to 20 years.
Sunday 11 October 2015 20.19 EDT
Last modified on Monday 12 October 2015 00.25 EDT
Two dozen people have already died from hunger and drinking contaminated water in drought-stricken Papua New Guinea, but the looming El Niño crisis could leave more than four million people across the Pacific without enough food or clean water.
The El Niño weather pattern – when waters in the eastern tropical Pacific ocean become warmer, driving extreme weather conditions – may be as severe as in 1997-98, when an estimated 23,000 people died, forecasters believe.
Record El Niño set to cause hunger for 10 million poorest, Oxfam warns
Read more
In Papua New Guinea’s Chimbu province in the highlands region, a prolonged drought has been exacerbated by sudden and severe frosts which have killed off almost all crops. The provincial disaster centre has confirmed 24 people have died from starvation and drinking contaminated water.
Provincial disaster co-ordinator Michael Ire Appa told RadioNZ he feared the death toll could even be higher.
“The drought has been here for almost three months now and in areas that were affected by the drought there’s a serious food shortage, including water, and some of the districts have not reported, so there may be more [deaths] than that,” he said.
Two highlands provinces have already declared a state of emergency.
Oxfam Australia’s climate change policy advisor Dr Simon Bradshaw said many parts of PNG would run out of food in two or three months, but in some areas there was as little as a month’s food left, and few ways to get more in.
“In the highland areas people are almost exclusively reliant on subsistence farming, farming of sweet potatoes. We do know that water is becoming very scarce, that’s of course impacting food production, and PNG is almost entirely dependent on its own food – I think 83% of its food is produced in-country – so any hit on food production poses immediate challenges in terms of food security.”
Research on Andes ice cap in Peru reveals extreme weather’s global impact. Link to video
Over the coming months, the El Niño pattern will bring more rain, flooding and higher sea levels to countries near the equator, raising the risk of inundation for low-lying atolls already feeling the impacts of climate change.
At the same time, the countries of the Pacific south-west – which have larger populations – will be significantly drier a
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msfreeh
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Re: Heat is Online
Historic October Heat Shatters Records in Dakotas, Nebraska, Colorado
October 12, 2015
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Sunday took late-season heat to unheard-of extremes in parts of Colorado, Nebraska and the Dakotas. For much of the region, temperatures were higher than any on record for so late in the year.
A few places were so hot that October 11 will go down as the hottest day of all of 2015 – an extraordinary feat in the central and northern Plains, where October is typically part of a rapid transition from summer's heat to winter's chill.
North Dakota
Fargo was one of the places where Sunday was hotter than any other day in 2015, surpassing the city's high of 96 from Aug. 14. The mercury hit an astonishing 97 in Fargo, establishing several records:
It was a new all-time record high for the month of October there, crushing the old record of 93 set Oct. 3, 1922, and Oct. 5, 1965.
It was by far the latest 97-degree or hotter day in any calendar year in Fargo, beating the Dust Bowl-era record from 1936 by a margin of 19 days.
Even more impressively, it appears to be hottest temperature ever recorded in the entire state of North Dakota on or after Oct. 11, beating a 95-degree reading taken in Buford on Oct. 11, 1911.
South Dakota
Temperatures in South Dakota soared as high as 97 in Yankton on Sunday, based on preliminary data.
Aberdeen hit 93 Sunday, its highest reading on record this late in the year. The October record of 96 from Oct. 5, 1963, remains intact.
Pierre hit a daily record of 95 Sunday, also surpassing any temperature on record on or after Oct. 11. The capital's October record is still 98 last set Oct. 2, 1997, during another strong El Niño.
Nebraska
Many of Nebraska's long-term weather observation sites recorded their highest temperatures ever measured this late in the year:
Norfolk hit 98 degrees Sunday, setting an all-time record for the month of October. This was also three weeks later than the latest 98-degree (or hotter) day on record in Norfolk – Sept. 20, 1895.
Broken Bow also topped out at 98 degrees Sunday, setting an all-time record for the month of October.
Grand Island hit 97 Sunday to break its all-time October record of 96 set Oct. 5, 1947.
Nearby Hastings tied its October record high of 97 set that same day. Sunday also tied for the hottest day of 2015 in Hastings.
Lincoln reached 94 Sunday – shy of the monthly record (98) set Oct. 5, 1947, but still the hottest Lincoln has ever been this late in the season.
North Platte and Valentine also hit 94 Sunday, marking the hottest readings so late in the season there as well.
Norfolk established a new record high for any day in autumn. On March 16 of this year, Norfolk hit 92 to tie its all-time March record high and break its all-time winter record high, joining many other Nebraska cities in setting records for the earliest 90-degree day on record.
(MORE: Extreme Early-Season Heat in Plains, Southwest)
Iowa
Just over the Missouri River from Nebraska, Sioux City reached 91 to set a daily record high. The reading came 208 days after the city logged its record-earliest high of 90 on March 16.
That 208-day span of 90-degree days is more than five weeks longer than the previous record of 172 days from April 13 to Oct. 3, 2006.
Colorado
Colorado Springs hit 87 degrees Sunday, tying its all-time October record originally set Oct. 3, 1935.
October 12, 2015
http://www.wunderground.com/news/histor ... a-colorado" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Sunday took late-season heat to unheard-of extremes in parts of Colorado, Nebraska and the Dakotas. For much of the region, temperatures were higher than any on record for so late in the year.
A few places were so hot that October 11 will go down as the hottest day of all of 2015 – an extraordinary feat in the central and northern Plains, where October is typically part of a rapid transition from summer's heat to winter's chill.
North Dakota
Fargo was one of the places where Sunday was hotter than any other day in 2015, surpassing the city's high of 96 from Aug. 14. The mercury hit an astonishing 97 in Fargo, establishing several records:
It was a new all-time record high for the month of October there, crushing the old record of 93 set Oct. 3, 1922, and Oct. 5, 1965.
It was by far the latest 97-degree or hotter day in any calendar year in Fargo, beating the Dust Bowl-era record from 1936 by a margin of 19 days.
Even more impressively, it appears to be hottest temperature ever recorded in the entire state of North Dakota on or after Oct. 11, beating a 95-degree reading taken in Buford on Oct. 11, 1911.
South Dakota
Temperatures in South Dakota soared as high as 97 in Yankton on Sunday, based on preliminary data.
Aberdeen hit 93 Sunday, its highest reading on record this late in the year. The October record of 96 from Oct. 5, 1963, remains intact.
Pierre hit a daily record of 95 Sunday, also surpassing any temperature on record on or after Oct. 11. The capital's October record is still 98 last set Oct. 2, 1997, during another strong El Niño.
Nebraska
Many of Nebraska's long-term weather observation sites recorded their highest temperatures ever measured this late in the year:
Norfolk hit 98 degrees Sunday, setting an all-time record for the month of October. This was also three weeks later than the latest 98-degree (or hotter) day on record in Norfolk – Sept. 20, 1895.
Broken Bow also topped out at 98 degrees Sunday, setting an all-time record for the month of October.
Grand Island hit 97 Sunday to break its all-time October record of 96 set Oct. 5, 1947.
Nearby Hastings tied its October record high of 97 set that same day. Sunday also tied for the hottest day of 2015 in Hastings.
Lincoln reached 94 Sunday – shy of the monthly record (98) set Oct. 5, 1947, but still the hottest Lincoln has ever been this late in the season.
North Platte and Valentine also hit 94 Sunday, marking the hottest readings so late in the season there as well.
Norfolk established a new record high for any day in autumn. On March 16 of this year, Norfolk hit 92 to tie its all-time March record high and break its all-time winter record high, joining many other Nebraska cities in setting records for the earliest 90-degree day on record.
(MORE: Extreme Early-Season Heat in Plains, Southwest)
Iowa
Just over the Missouri River from Nebraska, Sioux City reached 91 to set a daily record high. The reading came 208 days after the city logged its record-earliest high of 90 on March 16.
That 208-day span of 90-degree days is more than five weeks longer than the previous record of 172 days from April 13 to Oct. 3, 2006.
Colorado
Colorado Springs hit 87 degrees Sunday, tying its all-time October record originally set Oct. 3, 1935.
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msfreeh
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Re: Heat is Online
Why Sale of National Geographic To Fox Signals Perilous Times For Photojournalism
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When the news broke that National Geographic was sold to Rupert Murdoch, fans of the magazine gasped.
A magazine known for its photo essays paired with reports often based on scientific research being under the control of an outspoken climate change denier worried them.
As a photojournalist, it is to difficult for me to imagine that the sale of National Geographic to Murdoch won’t contribute to the decline of photojournalism, because it is one of the few publications left whose brand is connected to original, visually-oriented content.
Shortly after the sale was announced, Susan Goldberg, National Geographic’s editor-in-chief, claimed it was a good thing. “It’s great news,” she told the Washington Post. “It’s really a doubling down on our journalism and an investment in our journalism.” She pointed out that the partnership will bring more resources and distribution muscle to National Geographic’s digital and print operations.
However, Jane Goodall, the naturalist with a long relationship with National Geographic, told the Winnipeg Free Press that at first she thought it was a joke. The news left her dumbfounded: “It is unimaginable. National Geographic being owned almost entirely by climate deniers.”
http://www.desmogblog.com/2015/10/08/wh ... journalism" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
When the news broke that National Geographic was sold to Rupert Murdoch, fans of the magazine gasped.
A magazine known for its photo essays paired with reports often based on scientific research being under the control of an outspoken climate change denier worried them.
As a photojournalist, it is to difficult for me to imagine that the sale of National Geographic to Murdoch won’t contribute to the decline of photojournalism, because it is one of the few publications left whose brand is connected to original, visually-oriented content.
Shortly after the sale was announced, Susan Goldberg, National Geographic’s editor-in-chief, claimed it was a good thing. “It’s great news,” she told the Washington Post. “It’s really a doubling down on our journalism and an investment in our journalism.” She pointed out that the partnership will bring more resources and distribution muscle to National Geographic’s digital and print operations.
However, Jane Goodall, the naturalist with a long relationship with National Geographic, told the Winnipeg Free Press that at first she thought it was a joke. The news left her dumbfounded: “It is unimaginable. National Geographic being owned almost entirely by climate deniers.”
-
msfreeh
- Level 34 Illuminated
- Posts: 7718
Re: Heat is Online
robertscribbler
Scribbling for environmental, social and economic justice
Is Human Warming Prodding A Sleeping Methane Monster off Oregon’s Coast?
http://robertscribbler.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
We’ve talked quite a bit about the Arctic Methane Monster — the potential that a rapidly warming Arctic will force the release of disproportionately large volumes of methane from organic material locked in permafrost and in frozen sea bed hydrates composing volumes of this powerful greenhouse gas large enough to significantly increase the pace of human-forced global warming. But if we consider the globe as a whole, the Arctic isn’t the only place where large methane stores lurk — laying in wait for the heat we’ve already added to the world’s oceans and atmosphere to trigger their release. And a new study out of the University of Washington provides yet another indication that the continental shelf off Oregon and Washington may be one of many emerging methane release hot spots.
For all around the world, and beneath the broad, blue expanse of the world’s seas, rest billions and billions of tons of frozen methane hydrate.
A kind of methane and ice combination, frozen hydrate is one of the world’s most effective natural methods of trapping and sequestering carbon. Over long ages, organic material at the bottom of the oceans decompose into hydrocarbons, often breaking down into methane gas. At high pressure and low temperature, this methane gas can be locked away in a frozen water-ice hydrate lattice, which is then often buried beneath the sea bed where it can safely remain for thousands or even millions of years.
Plume2_nolabels_cropped
(Plume of methane bubbles rising from the sea floor off the Oregon Coast. This image shows methane bubbles originating from the sea bed about 515 meters below the surface before dissolving into the water column at about 180 meters depth. Image source: American Geophysical Union.)
Most of these deposits lay well beneath the sea bed or at extreme ocean depths of one mile or greater. And so far, human forced warming hasn’t been great enough to risk the destabilization of most of these deep ocean carbon stores. But some hydrate deposits rest in the shallower waters of continental slope systems and at depths where current warming may now be causing them to destabilize.
Scientists Think Methane Hydrates May be Destabilizing off Oregon
Enter a new study by University of Washington scientists which found “an unusually high number of bubble plumes at the depth where methane hydrate would decompose if seawater has warmed.” The scientists concluded that these bubble plumes were likely evidence of methane hydrate destabilization due to a human forced warming of the water column in the range of about 500 meters of depth.
The warm waters, ironically, come from a region off Siberia where the deep waters have, over recent decades, been heated to unprecedented temperatures. These waters have, in turn, through ocean current exchange, circulated to the off-shore region of Washington and Oregon where they appear to have gone to work destabilizing methane hydrate in the continental slope zone. A paper published during 2014 hypothesized that these warm waters would have an impact on hydrates. And the new paper is the first potential confirmation of these earlier predictions.
In total about 168 methane plumes are now observed to be bubbling out of the sea bed off the Washington and Oregon coasts. Of these, 14 are located in the 500 meter depth range where ocean warming has pushed temperatures to levels at which hydrate could begin to destabilize. University of Washington researchers noted that the number of plumes at this depth range was disproportionately high, which also served as an indirect indicator that human heating may be causing this methane to release.
PlumesMap
(Locations of methane plumes in the continental slope zone off Washington and Oregon. The location of a disproportionate number of these plumes in a zone now featuring a warming water column is an indication that the human-forced heating of ocean currents is starting to drive some methane hydrate structures to destabilize. Image source: AGU.)
Lead author H. Paul Johnson, a University of Washington professor of oceanography noted in AGU:
“So it is not likely to be just emitted from the sediments; this appears to be coming from the decomposition of methane that has been frozen for thousands of years… What we’re seeing is possible confirmation of what we predicted from the water temperatures: Methane hydrate appears to be decomposing and releasing a lot of gas. If you look systematically, the location on the margin where you’re getting the largest number of methane plumes per square meter, it is right at that critical depth of 500 meters.””
Implications For Ocean Health, Carbon Cycle
Most methane released at this depth never reaches the atmosphere. Instead, it either oxidizes to CO2 in the water column or is converted by ocean bacteria. That said, expanding zones of methane release can rob the surrounding ocean of vital oxygen even as it can saturate the water column with carbon — increasing ocean acidification and reducing the local ocean’s ability to draw carbon out of the atmosphere. Such a response can indirectly increase the volume of heat trapping gasses in the atmosphere by reducing the overall rate of ocean carbon uptake. In more extreme cases, methane bubbles reach the surface where they then vent directly into the atmosphere, proportionately adding to the human-produced greenhouse gasses that have already put the world into a regime of rapid warming.
It has been hypothesized that large methane releases from ocean hydrate stores contributed to past hothouse warming events and related mass extinctions like the Permian and the PETM (See A Deadly Climb From Glaciation to Hothouse). But the more immediate consequences of smaller scale releases are related to declining ocean health.
According to AGU and Dr. Johnson, the study author:
Marine microbes convert the methane into carbon dioxide, producing lower-oxygen, more-acidic conditions in the deeper offshore water, which eventually wells up along the coast and surges into coastal waterways. “Current environmental changes in Washington and Oregon are already impacting local biology and fisheries, and these changes would be amplified by the further release of methane,” Johnson said.
Instances of mass sea life die-off have already occurred at a very high frequency off the Washington and Oregon Coasts. And many of these instances have been associated with a combination of low oxygen content in the near and off shore waters, increasing ocean acidification, increasing dangerous algae blooms, and an overall warming ocean system. It’s important to note that ocean acidification, though often cited in the media, is just one of many threats to ocean life and health. In many cases, low oxygen dead zones and large microbial blooms can be even more deadly. And in the most extreme low oxygen regions, the water column can start to fill up with deadly hydrogen sulfide gas — a toxic substance that, at high enough concentrations, kills off pretty much all oxygen-based life (See Hydrogen Sulfide in the World’s Warming Oceans).
During recent years, mass sea life deaths have been linked to a ‘hot blob’ forming in nearby waters (See Mass Whale Death in Northeast Pacific — Hot Blob’s Record Algae Bloom to Blame?). However, indicators of low oxygen in the waters near Washington and Oregon have been growing in frequency since the early 2000s. Though the paper does not state this explicitly — increasing rates of methane release in the off-shore waters due to hydrate destabilization may already be contributing to declining ocean health in the region.
Slope Collapse, Conditions in Context
A final risk associated with methane hydrate destabilization in the continental slope zone is an increased prevalence of potential slope collapse. As methane hydrate releases, it can deform the sea bed structures within slope systems. Such systems become less stable, increasing the potential for large underwater landslides. Not only could these large landslides displace significant volumes of water or even set off tsunamis, slope collapse events also risk uncovering and exposing more hydrate systems to the warming ocean in a kind of amplifying feedback.
In context, the total volume of methane being released into the off-shore environment is currently estimated to be about 0.1 million metric tons each year. That’s about the same rate of hydrocarbon release seen from the Deepwater Horizon blowout. A locally large release but still rather small in size compared to the whopping 10+ billion tons of carbon being dumped into the atmosphere each year through human fossil fuel burning. However, this release is widespread, uncontrolled, un-cappable and, if scientists are correct in their indications of a human warming influence, likely to continue to increase as the oceans warm further.
Links:
Bubble Plumes off Washington and Oregon Suggest Warmer Ocean May be Releasing Frozen Methane
Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems
Warming Oceans May be Spewing Methane off US West Coast
Concern Over Catastrophic Methane Release
Hydrogen Sulfide in the World’s Warming Oceans
Mass Whale Death in Northeast Pacific — Hot Blob’s Record Algae Bloom to Blame?
A Deadly Climb From Glaciation to Hothouse
Scribbling for environmental, social and economic justice
Is Human Warming Prodding A Sleeping Methane Monster off Oregon’s Coast?
http://robertscribbler.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
We’ve talked quite a bit about the Arctic Methane Monster — the potential that a rapidly warming Arctic will force the release of disproportionately large volumes of methane from organic material locked in permafrost and in frozen sea bed hydrates composing volumes of this powerful greenhouse gas large enough to significantly increase the pace of human-forced global warming. But if we consider the globe as a whole, the Arctic isn’t the only place where large methane stores lurk — laying in wait for the heat we’ve already added to the world’s oceans and atmosphere to trigger their release. And a new study out of the University of Washington provides yet another indication that the continental shelf off Oregon and Washington may be one of many emerging methane release hot spots.
For all around the world, and beneath the broad, blue expanse of the world’s seas, rest billions and billions of tons of frozen methane hydrate.
A kind of methane and ice combination, frozen hydrate is one of the world’s most effective natural methods of trapping and sequestering carbon. Over long ages, organic material at the bottom of the oceans decompose into hydrocarbons, often breaking down into methane gas. At high pressure and low temperature, this methane gas can be locked away in a frozen water-ice hydrate lattice, which is then often buried beneath the sea bed where it can safely remain for thousands or even millions of years.
Plume2_nolabels_cropped
(Plume of methane bubbles rising from the sea floor off the Oregon Coast. This image shows methane bubbles originating from the sea bed about 515 meters below the surface before dissolving into the water column at about 180 meters depth. Image source: American Geophysical Union.)
Most of these deposits lay well beneath the sea bed or at extreme ocean depths of one mile or greater. And so far, human forced warming hasn’t been great enough to risk the destabilization of most of these deep ocean carbon stores. But some hydrate deposits rest in the shallower waters of continental slope systems and at depths where current warming may now be causing them to destabilize.
Scientists Think Methane Hydrates May be Destabilizing off Oregon
Enter a new study by University of Washington scientists which found “an unusually high number of bubble plumes at the depth where methane hydrate would decompose if seawater has warmed.” The scientists concluded that these bubble plumes were likely evidence of methane hydrate destabilization due to a human forced warming of the water column in the range of about 500 meters of depth.
The warm waters, ironically, come from a region off Siberia where the deep waters have, over recent decades, been heated to unprecedented temperatures. These waters have, in turn, through ocean current exchange, circulated to the off-shore region of Washington and Oregon where they appear to have gone to work destabilizing methane hydrate in the continental slope zone. A paper published during 2014 hypothesized that these warm waters would have an impact on hydrates. And the new paper is the first potential confirmation of these earlier predictions.
In total about 168 methane plumes are now observed to be bubbling out of the sea bed off the Washington and Oregon coasts. Of these, 14 are located in the 500 meter depth range where ocean warming has pushed temperatures to levels at which hydrate could begin to destabilize. University of Washington researchers noted that the number of plumes at this depth range was disproportionately high, which also served as an indirect indicator that human heating may be causing this methane to release.
PlumesMap
(Locations of methane plumes in the continental slope zone off Washington and Oregon. The location of a disproportionate number of these plumes in a zone now featuring a warming water column is an indication that the human-forced heating of ocean currents is starting to drive some methane hydrate structures to destabilize. Image source: AGU.)
Lead author H. Paul Johnson, a University of Washington professor of oceanography noted in AGU:
“So it is not likely to be just emitted from the sediments; this appears to be coming from the decomposition of methane that has been frozen for thousands of years… What we’re seeing is possible confirmation of what we predicted from the water temperatures: Methane hydrate appears to be decomposing and releasing a lot of gas. If you look systematically, the location on the margin where you’re getting the largest number of methane plumes per square meter, it is right at that critical depth of 500 meters.””
Implications For Ocean Health, Carbon Cycle
Most methane released at this depth never reaches the atmosphere. Instead, it either oxidizes to CO2 in the water column or is converted by ocean bacteria. That said, expanding zones of methane release can rob the surrounding ocean of vital oxygen even as it can saturate the water column with carbon — increasing ocean acidification and reducing the local ocean’s ability to draw carbon out of the atmosphere. Such a response can indirectly increase the volume of heat trapping gasses in the atmosphere by reducing the overall rate of ocean carbon uptake. In more extreme cases, methane bubbles reach the surface where they then vent directly into the atmosphere, proportionately adding to the human-produced greenhouse gasses that have already put the world into a regime of rapid warming.
It has been hypothesized that large methane releases from ocean hydrate stores contributed to past hothouse warming events and related mass extinctions like the Permian and the PETM (See A Deadly Climb From Glaciation to Hothouse). But the more immediate consequences of smaller scale releases are related to declining ocean health.
According to AGU and Dr. Johnson, the study author:
Marine microbes convert the methane into carbon dioxide, producing lower-oxygen, more-acidic conditions in the deeper offshore water, which eventually wells up along the coast and surges into coastal waterways. “Current environmental changes in Washington and Oregon are already impacting local biology and fisheries, and these changes would be amplified by the further release of methane,” Johnson said.
Instances of mass sea life die-off have already occurred at a very high frequency off the Washington and Oregon Coasts. And many of these instances have been associated with a combination of low oxygen content in the near and off shore waters, increasing ocean acidification, increasing dangerous algae blooms, and an overall warming ocean system. It’s important to note that ocean acidification, though often cited in the media, is just one of many threats to ocean life and health. In many cases, low oxygen dead zones and large microbial blooms can be even more deadly. And in the most extreme low oxygen regions, the water column can start to fill up with deadly hydrogen sulfide gas — a toxic substance that, at high enough concentrations, kills off pretty much all oxygen-based life (See Hydrogen Sulfide in the World’s Warming Oceans).
During recent years, mass sea life deaths have been linked to a ‘hot blob’ forming in nearby waters (See Mass Whale Death in Northeast Pacific — Hot Blob’s Record Algae Bloom to Blame?). However, indicators of low oxygen in the waters near Washington and Oregon have been growing in frequency since the early 2000s. Though the paper does not state this explicitly — increasing rates of methane release in the off-shore waters due to hydrate destabilization may already be contributing to declining ocean health in the region.
Slope Collapse, Conditions in Context
A final risk associated with methane hydrate destabilization in the continental slope zone is an increased prevalence of potential slope collapse. As methane hydrate releases, it can deform the sea bed structures within slope systems. Such systems become less stable, increasing the potential for large underwater landslides. Not only could these large landslides displace significant volumes of water or even set off tsunamis, slope collapse events also risk uncovering and exposing more hydrate systems to the warming ocean in a kind of amplifying feedback.
In context, the total volume of methane being released into the off-shore environment is currently estimated to be about 0.1 million metric tons each year. That’s about the same rate of hydrocarbon release seen from the Deepwater Horizon blowout. A locally large release but still rather small in size compared to the whopping 10+ billion tons of carbon being dumped into the atmosphere each year through human fossil fuel burning. However, this release is widespread, uncontrolled, un-cappable and, if scientists are correct in their indications of a human warming influence, likely to continue to increase as the oceans warm further.
Links:
Bubble Plumes off Washington and Oregon Suggest Warmer Ocean May be Releasing Frozen Methane
Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems
Warming Oceans May be Spewing Methane off US West Coast
Concern Over Catastrophic Methane Release
Hydrogen Sulfide in the World’s Warming Oceans
Mass Whale Death in Northeast Pacific — Hot Blob’s Record Algae Bloom to Blame?
A Deadly Climb From Glaciation to Hothouse
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msfreeh
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- Posts: 7718
Re: Heat is Online
http://www.zpenergy.com/modules.php?nam ... pic&t=1668" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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msfreeh
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Re: Heat is Online
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msfreeh
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- Posts: 7718
Re: Heat is Online
Ivy League Universities Pushing Oil Industry Agenda With No Accountability
Columbia CGEP Oil Export Debate
Harold Hamm isn’t the kind of guy you’d expect to be name dropping Ivy League schools. Born in Oklahoma, his education ended with his graduation from high school. Which didn’t stop him from becoming a multi-billionaire by building his own oil and gas fracking company, Continental Resources — a company that bills itself as “America’s Oil Champion.”
So for a self-made man from oil country, it wasn’t surprising to see a PowerPoint slide with the bullet points “Rigs, Rednecks, and Royalties” during his presentation this June at the annual Energy Information Administration conference in Washington, D.C. Although when he referred to the oil producing sections of the U.S. as “Cowboyistan” it didn’t get the laugh he was probably expecting.
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Is the Enbridge Northern Gateway Pipeline Finally Dead?
Jody Wilson-Raybould, Justin Trudeau and Art Sterritt walk on the boardwalk in Hartley Bay, B.C.
In August 2014, Liberal leader Justin Trudeau made the trek to the tiny Gitga’at community of Hartley Bay, located along Enbridge’s proposed oil tanker route in northwestern B.C.
There, in the village of 200 people accessible only by air and water, he met with community elders and Art Sterritt, executive director of the Coastal First Nations.
“He came to Gitga’at because he wanted to make sure he was making the right decision in terms of Northern Gateway and being there certainly confirmed that,” Sterritt told DeSmog Canada on Tuesday.
“My confidence level went up immensely when Justin … visited Gitga’at.”
Two months before that visit, in May 2014, Trudeau told reporters in Ottawa that if he became prime minister “the Northern Gateway Pipeline will not happen.”
With Monday’s majority win by Trudeau, Sterritt — who retired three weeks ago from his role with Coastal First Nations — says he is “elated” and “Northern Gateway is now dead.”
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Communities Pushing For Legal Rights To Regain Power Over Fracking Companies
By Blair Koch
A Colorado group with concerns about the environmental impacts of fracking are pushing for a fundamental change to the state’s legal system to give communities greater power over corporations.
Coloradans for Community Rights has set its sights on dismantling the legal system where state laws take precedence over local rules.
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What Your New Liberal Majority Government Means for Climate, Environment, Science and Transparency
Holy smokes.
Polls are in and Canadians across the country are expressing surprise at the strong win for the federal Liberal party.
While there’s much ink to be spilled over former Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s reign, he’s likely locked in a bathroom now, so we’ll save that for another, less change-y time.
Canada, you have a new Prime Minister. I would say 'go home, you’re drunk.' But don’t, because you’re not. This is actually happening.
But wait, what is actually happening? We have a new majority government. Before the fun gets away with us, let’s do a quick reality check for what the Liberal Party and incoming Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have been promising all y’all on some of our top DeSmog Canada topics: climate, environment, science and transparency.
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Climate Science Denialist Matt Ridley Criticised By Same Scientist He Sourced On Greening Planet Claims
Matt Ridley
A scientist whose research has been used by prominent climate science denialists Lord Matt Ridley and Rupert Murdoch to claim carbon dioxide is good for the planet has hit back at the “selective presentation” of his work.
Professor Ranga Myneni, of Boston University, has been researching satellite data showing how the extra carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels is contributing to increased plant growth across the planet.
Columbia CGEP Oil Export Debate
Harold Hamm isn’t the kind of guy you’d expect to be name dropping Ivy League schools. Born in Oklahoma, his education ended with his graduation from high school. Which didn’t stop him from becoming a multi-billionaire by building his own oil and gas fracking company, Continental Resources — a company that bills itself as “America’s Oil Champion.”
So for a self-made man from oil country, it wasn’t surprising to see a PowerPoint slide with the bullet points “Rigs, Rednecks, and Royalties” during his presentation this June at the annual Energy Information Administration conference in Washington, D.C. Although when he referred to the oil producing sections of the U.S. as “Cowboyistan” it didn’t get the laugh he was probably expecting.
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Is the Enbridge Northern Gateway Pipeline Finally Dead?
Jody Wilson-Raybould, Justin Trudeau and Art Sterritt walk on the boardwalk in Hartley Bay, B.C.
In August 2014, Liberal leader Justin Trudeau made the trek to the tiny Gitga’at community of Hartley Bay, located along Enbridge’s proposed oil tanker route in northwestern B.C.
There, in the village of 200 people accessible only by air and water, he met with community elders and Art Sterritt, executive director of the Coastal First Nations.
“He came to Gitga’at because he wanted to make sure he was making the right decision in terms of Northern Gateway and being there certainly confirmed that,” Sterritt told DeSmog Canada on Tuesday.
“My confidence level went up immensely when Justin … visited Gitga’at.”
Two months before that visit, in May 2014, Trudeau told reporters in Ottawa that if he became prime minister “the Northern Gateway Pipeline will not happen.”
With Monday’s majority win by Trudeau, Sterritt — who retired three weeks ago from his role with Coastal First Nations — says he is “elated” and “Northern Gateway is now dead.”
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Communities Pushing For Legal Rights To Regain Power Over Fracking Companies
By Blair Koch
A Colorado group with concerns about the environmental impacts of fracking are pushing for a fundamental change to the state’s legal system to give communities greater power over corporations.
Coloradans for Community Rights has set its sights on dismantling the legal system where state laws take precedence over local rules.
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What Your New Liberal Majority Government Means for Climate, Environment, Science and Transparency
Holy smokes.
Polls are in and Canadians across the country are expressing surprise at the strong win for the federal Liberal party.
While there’s much ink to be spilled over former Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s reign, he’s likely locked in a bathroom now, so we’ll save that for another, less change-y time.
Canada, you have a new Prime Minister. I would say 'go home, you’re drunk.' But don’t, because you’re not. This is actually happening.
But wait, what is actually happening? We have a new majority government. Before the fun gets away with us, let’s do a quick reality check for what the Liberal Party and incoming Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have been promising all y’all on some of our top DeSmog Canada topics: climate, environment, science and transparency.
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Climate Science Denialist Matt Ridley Criticised By Same Scientist He Sourced On Greening Planet Claims
Matt Ridley
A scientist whose research has been used by prominent climate science denialists Lord Matt Ridley and Rupert Murdoch to claim carbon dioxide is good for the planet has hit back at the “selective presentation” of his work.
Professor Ranga Myneni, of Boston University, has been researching satellite data showing how the extra carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels is contributing to increased plant growth across the planet.
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msfreeh
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Re: Heat is Online
“Too Furious For Human Intervention” — Climate Feedbacks Spur Out of Control Wildfires From Indonesia to Brazil
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There is “no way human intervention can put out the fires,” Wan Junaidi Tuanku Jaafar, Malaysia’s Minister of Natural Resources and Environment, to the Australian Broadcasting Company on the issue of Indonesian wildfires in a recent Weather Channel Report.
*****
Outbreaks of Equatorial wildfires. It’s something that can happen during strong El Ninos. These periods of warming in the Equatorial Pacific can set off a chain of events leading to dangerous heatwaves, droughts and wildfires breaking out all over the Earth’s mid-section.
But put a strong El Nino into the context of the overall human-forced warming of the global environment by 1 C hotter than 1880s values and you start to get into some serious trouble. The added heat amplifies the warming already being set off by El Nino conditions, it worsens droughts, and it provides an environment for some ridiculously intense wildfire outbreaks. Outbreaks of a strength and ferocity we would not have seen had we not forced the world to warm by so much.
CAMS CO2
(Copernicus’s Atmospheric Monitoring Service [CAMS] shows very intense point source CO2 emissions from wildfires now raging out of control in the Amazon and in Indonesia. These massive fires have been set off due to a combination of poor land use practices and excessive heat and and drought spurred by El Nino and the added heating effect of human-forced climate change. Image source: CAMS.)
Over the past month, very intense and widespread wildfires have been breaking out in two heavily forested Equatorial regions — the Amazon and Indonesia. You can see the point source CO2 emissions for these fires in the CAMS graphic above. And what we see is that current emissions from these wildfires now exceeds that of the massive industrial Northern Hemisphere sources.
In essence, the vast carbon stores contained in the forested regions of the Amazon and Indonesia are burning and releasing into the atmosphere. This burning is due, in substantial part, to the added heat human fossil fuel based industry has forced into the global climate system. Thus, these extraordinary fires are the very definition of an amplifying feedback. And they will likely result in net global carbon emissions from all sources hitting a pretty extreme spike for 2015.
According to a recent report in Bits of Science:
In 1997 Indonesian drought and forest fires increased global CO2 emissions by 13-40 percent. In 2010 Amazon drought and forest fires increased global antropogenic CO2 emissions (energy and land use!) by an estimated 25 percent.
Given these ominous precedents, and given the extent of Equatorial wildfires in rainforest regions this year, we may see increases in global emissions hit or even exceed the ranges mentioned above.
11,000 Forest Fires in Brazil So Far
Last year, during one of Brazil’s worst droughts on record, more than 7,000 wildfires raged over Brazil’s forested regions. The rate of burning was so great that many scientists and environmentalists wondered if human warming was already starting to take down the massive and majestic rainforest — an impact that was not considered likely until the earth warmed up by another 1-3 degrees C on top of the heat forcing we’ve already provided.
But though the Amazon was left smoldering after a terrible drought and wildfire outbreak last year, the damage continued to increase through 2015. By early October, and with nearly 3 months of 2015 still remaining, more than 11,000 wildfires were reported to have burned in Brazil and the Amazon — a 47 percent increase in the number of wildfires from the severe burning of 2014. A stark statistic that will only grow worse as El Nino continues to spike global and Equatorial temperatures into new record ranges. A wretched example of how human-forced climate change can really turn El Nino into a monstrous weather phenomena.
Amazon Wildfires October 18
(Smoke from Amazon wildfires visible in the October 18,2015 LANCE MODIS satellite shot. Image source: LANCE MODIS.)
As with the ongoing water shortage disaster in Sao Paulo, mainstream media accounts of this massive wildfire outbreak in Brazil have been sparse. However, given the fact that we have a near 50 percent increase in the rate of burning from last year’s terrible base-line, we can only imagine that conditions on the ground in Brazil and in the Amazon are rather dire.
Huge Areas of Indonesia Burning — Some Fires Too Intense to Fight
Though the rate of Amazon burning is massive, but obscure in media reports, similarly immense Indonesia wildfires on the other side of the globe suffer no lack of media attention. Just 24 minutes ago, a report from The Weather Channel cited officials stating that some of the fires in region were now “too intense for human intervention.”
There, fires are so intense that smoke from them has forced the cancellation of flights, school children have been asked to stay home to avoid hazardous air, and the country is calling in firefighting forces from all over the globe. Malaysia, Singapore, and even Russia have contributed firefighting aircraft to the cause. But as of now, there appears little that can be done to help an out of control fire situation that has left a vast region sweltering under a hot, dense cloud of smoke.
“The government has tried hard to extinguish the wildfires across the country,” said Indonesia’s Environment and Forestry Minister Siti Nurbaya in a report to AP, “but it has gotten out of control.”
Rapid Response Indonesia Wildfires
(NASA Rapid Response MODIS satellite image shows very dense plumes of smoke rising off massive burn areas over Indonesia today. Smoke coverage was so dense that health warnings were issued, flights canceled, and school children sent home. With fires now raging out of control the best hope is the arrival of the mid-November rains. But added Equatorial heat due to El Nino and human-forced warming may force hot, dry conditions to remain in place. Image source: Rapid Response.)
An annual outbreak of wildfires has now become commonplace in Indonesia where corporations illegally burn to clear away forested land for Palm Oil and other crops. This year, record heat and dryness set off by a powerful El Nino acting in combination with human-forced climate change has added yet more danger to the dubious and harmful activity.
Not only are fires now so widespread and intense that they burn completely out of control, but the pall of smoke cast by the fires generates its own fire hazard — helping to prevent rain cloud formation. In total, more than 3,500 hot spots are now visible in the satellite image. In Borneo and Sumatra, more than 4.2 million acres or about 6,500 square miles have burned so far.
The situation is so dire that officials and residents alike are forced to pin their hopes on the seasonal emergence of rains by mid-November. Hopes that may be dashed as a strong El Nino combines with already intense human warming to force ever more extreme conditions.
Links:
Indonesian Wildfires Now Too Furious For Human Intervention
This is What Carbon Climate Feedbacks Look Like!!
Amazon Rainforest Wildfires Scorch Through Drought-Plagued Brazil
Hat Tip to both Colorado Bob and DT Lange for their amazing research on the subject
http://robertscribbler.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
There is “no way human intervention can put out the fires,” Wan Junaidi Tuanku Jaafar, Malaysia’s Minister of Natural Resources and Environment, to the Australian Broadcasting Company on the issue of Indonesian wildfires in a recent Weather Channel Report.
*****
Outbreaks of Equatorial wildfires. It’s something that can happen during strong El Ninos. These periods of warming in the Equatorial Pacific can set off a chain of events leading to dangerous heatwaves, droughts and wildfires breaking out all over the Earth’s mid-section.
But put a strong El Nino into the context of the overall human-forced warming of the global environment by 1 C hotter than 1880s values and you start to get into some serious trouble. The added heat amplifies the warming already being set off by El Nino conditions, it worsens droughts, and it provides an environment for some ridiculously intense wildfire outbreaks. Outbreaks of a strength and ferocity we would not have seen had we not forced the world to warm by so much.
CAMS CO2
(Copernicus’s Atmospheric Monitoring Service [CAMS] shows very intense point source CO2 emissions from wildfires now raging out of control in the Amazon and in Indonesia. These massive fires have been set off due to a combination of poor land use practices and excessive heat and and drought spurred by El Nino and the added heating effect of human-forced climate change. Image source: CAMS.)
Over the past month, very intense and widespread wildfires have been breaking out in two heavily forested Equatorial regions — the Amazon and Indonesia. You can see the point source CO2 emissions for these fires in the CAMS graphic above. And what we see is that current emissions from these wildfires now exceeds that of the massive industrial Northern Hemisphere sources.
In essence, the vast carbon stores contained in the forested regions of the Amazon and Indonesia are burning and releasing into the atmosphere. This burning is due, in substantial part, to the added heat human fossil fuel based industry has forced into the global climate system. Thus, these extraordinary fires are the very definition of an amplifying feedback. And they will likely result in net global carbon emissions from all sources hitting a pretty extreme spike for 2015.
According to a recent report in Bits of Science:
In 1997 Indonesian drought and forest fires increased global CO2 emissions by 13-40 percent. In 2010 Amazon drought and forest fires increased global antropogenic CO2 emissions (energy and land use!) by an estimated 25 percent.
Given these ominous precedents, and given the extent of Equatorial wildfires in rainforest regions this year, we may see increases in global emissions hit or even exceed the ranges mentioned above.
11,000 Forest Fires in Brazil So Far
Last year, during one of Brazil’s worst droughts on record, more than 7,000 wildfires raged over Brazil’s forested regions. The rate of burning was so great that many scientists and environmentalists wondered if human warming was already starting to take down the massive and majestic rainforest — an impact that was not considered likely until the earth warmed up by another 1-3 degrees C on top of the heat forcing we’ve already provided.
But though the Amazon was left smoldering after a terrible drought and wildfire outbreak last year, the damage continued to increase through 2015. By early October, and with nearly 3 months of 2015 still remaining, more than 11,000 wildfires were reported to have burned in Brazil and the Amazon — a 47 percent increase in the number of wildfires from the severe burning of 2014. A stark statistic that will only grow worse as El Nino continues to spike global and Equatorial temperatures into new record ranges. A wretched example of how human-forced climate change can really turn El Nino into a monstrous weather phenomena.
Amazon Wildfires October 18
(Smoke from Amazon wildfires visible in the October 18,2015 LANCE MODIS satellite shot. Image source: LANCE MODIS.)
As with the ongoing water shortage disaster in Sao Paulo, mainstream media accounts of this massive wildfire outbreak in Brazil have been sparse. However, given the fact that we have a near 50 percent increase in the rate of burning from last year’s terrible base-line, we can only imagine that conditions on the ground in Brazil and in the Amazon are rather dire.
Huge Areas of Indonesia Burning — Some Fires Too Intense to Fight
Though the rate of Amazon burning is massive, but obscure in media reports, similarly immense Indonesia wildfires on the other side of the globe suffer no lack of media attention. Just 24 minutes ago, a report from The Weather Channel cited officials stating that some of the fires in region were now “too intense for human intervention.”
There, fires are so intense that smoke from them has forced the cancellation of flights, school children have been asked to stay home to avoid hazardous air, and the country is calling in firefighting forces from all over the globe. Malaysia, Singapore, and even Russia have contributed firefighting aircraft to the cause. But as of now, there appears little that can be done to help an out of control fire situation that has left a vast region sweltering under a hot, dense cloud of smoke.
“The government has tried hard to extinguish the wildfires across the country,” said Indonesia’s Environment and Forestry Minister Siti Nurbaya in a report to AP, “but it has gotten out of control.”
Rapid Response Indonesia Wildfires
(NASA Rapid Response MODIS satellite image shows very dense plumes of smoke rising off massive burn areas over Indonesia today. Smoke coverage was so dense that health warnings were issued, flights canceled, and school children sent home. With fires now raging out of control the best hope is the arrival of the mid-November rains. But added Equatorial heat due to El Nino and human-forced warming may force hot, dry conditions to remain in place. Image source: Rapid Response.)
An annual outbreak of wildfires has now become commonplace in Indonesia where corporations illegally burn to clear away forested land for Palm Oil and other crops. This year, record heat and dryness set off by a powerful El Nino acting in combination with human-forced climate change has added yet more danger to the dubious and harmful activity.
Not only are fires now so widespread and intense that they burn completely out of control, but the pall of smoke cast by the fires generates its own fire hazard — helping to prevent rain cloud formation. In total, more than 3,500 hot spots are now visible in the satellite image. In Borneo and Sumatra, more than 4.2 million acres or about 6,500 square miles have burned so far.
The situation is so dire that officials and residents alike are forced to pin their hopes on the seasonal emergence of rains by mid-November. Hopes that may be dashed as a strong El Nino combines with already intense human warming to force ever more extreme conditions.
Links:
Indonesian Wildfires Now Too Furious For Human Intervention
This is What Carbon Climate Feedbacks Look Like!!
Amazon Rainforest Wildfires Scorch Through Drought-Plagued Brazil
Hat Tip to both Colorado Bob and DT Lange for their amazing research on the subject
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msfreeh
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- Posts: 7718
Re: Heat is Online
check out the photos....
new record.....
Dr. Jeff Masters
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Infographics
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Start a Blog
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Hurricane Patricia Hits Category 5 En Route to Mexican Coast
By: Bob Henson , 4:28 AM GMT on October 23, 2015
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=3164" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
History is being made tonight in the Northeast Pacific as Hurricane Patricia churns about 200 miles off the coast of Mexico, south-southwest of Manzanillo. With its 11 pm EDT Thursday advisory, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Patricia to Category 5, with top sustained winds of 160 mph and a central pressure of 924 millibars. Hurricane warnings are now in effect for the coast from San Blas to Punta San Telmo, including Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo, with a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning eastward to Lazaro Cardenas. Update: Late Thursday night, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter flight captured some of the most extreme observations ever recorded in 70 years of reconnaissance activity. Based on flight-level winds of 179 knots (206 mph), NHC upgraded Patricia's strength at 12:30 am EDT Friday to 185 mph. The estimated surface pressure of 892 mb is the lowest on record for the Northeast Pacific, and it ranks #3 for the entire Western Hemisphere behind only Wilma (882 mb, on October 19, 2005) and Gilbert (888 mb, on September 13, 1988). A surface reading of 892 mb was recorded at Key West during the Labor Day hurricane (September 2, 1935).
new record.....
Dr. Jeff Masters
Weather Blogs
News Stories
Infographics
Posters
Start a Blog
My Favorite Blogs
Hurricane Patricia Hits Category 5 En Route to Mexican Coast
By: Bob Henson , 4:28 AM GMT on October 23, 2015
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=3164" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
History is being made tonight in the Northeast Pacific as Hurricane Patricia churns about 200 miles off the coast of Mexico, south-southwest of Manzanillo. With its 11 pm EDT Thursday advisory, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Patricia to Category 5, with top sustained winds of 160 mph and a central pressure of 924 millibars. Hurricane warnings are now in effect for the coast from San Blas to Punta San Telmo, including Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo, with a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning eastward to Lazaro Cardenas. Update: Late Thursday night, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter flight captured some of the most extreme observations ever recorded in 70 years of reconnaissance activity. Based on flight-level winds of 179 knots (206 mph), NHC upgraded Patricia's strength at 12:30 am EDT Friday to 185 mph. The estimated surface pressure of 892 mb is the lowest on record for the Northeast Pacific, and it ranks #3 for the entire Western Hemisphere behind only Wilma (882 mb, on October 19, 2005) and Gilbert (888 mb, on September 13, 1988). A surface reading of 892 mb was recorded at Key West during the Labor Day hurricane (September 2, 1935).
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msfreeh
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Re: Heat is Online
“A Crime Against Humanity” — Hothouse Wildfire Smoke Sickens 500,000 As Indonesian Officials Plan For Mass Evacuations
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It’s official, the 2015 Indonesian wildfires are the worst that Island nation has ever experienced. Worse than even the terrible 1997 wildfires and possibly the worst wildfire disaster ever. And it’s all an upshot of what happens when slash and burn agriculture meets a once lush land now sweltering in a human hothouse world.
* * * *
There’s been something dreadfully wrong with Indonesia’s forests and peatlands ever since massive fires ignited across that island nation back in 1997. Back then, a monster El Nino — combined with heat from massive human greenhouse gas emissions — pushed the world to 0.7 to 0.8 C hotter than 1880s averages. Equatorial temperatures would never again fall to a normal threshold. And as the lands and surrounding oceans warmed, the dry season lengthened and the rainy season shortened.
Slash and burn agriculture, a mainstay practice for the region ever since industrial farms began to take root there in the middle 20th Century, always generated some fires. But before human greenhouse emissions brought on added heat and dryness, the situation was one of slow degradation rather than violent conflagration. Even during the dry season, mid-to-late 20th Century moisture levels were much higher and fires tended to be naturally suppressed by the lush wetness of the region. But now, with the added heat of human warming creating droughts in the peatlands, slash and burn agriculture essentially amounted to throwing burning embers into a powder keg.
Kuala Lumpur
(Kuala Lumpur, Maylasia swelters under peat-fire smog during late September of 2015. Ever since 1997, Indonesia has suffered severe seasonal wildfires. These fires are often set by corporate and individual farmers who use the fires to clear land. However, increased heat and drought caused by an increasingly vicious human-forced warming of the globe are creating a climate in which these fires, once set, tend to rage out of control. Image source: ALERT.)
As the heatwaves and droughts lengthened with amplifying human-forced warming, wildfires became endemic. Each year, the farmers burned more peatlands. Each year, the peatlands belched toxic smoke into the air, burning deeper and deeper into the carbon-rich ground, adding to and compounding the problem of human fossil fuel emissions and causing mass sickness and hospitalizations. In this dangerous new equatorial hothouse climate, even under the rains, the ground still smoldered, waiting for the longer, hotter dry seasons to return before again erupting into flame. All throughout the 2000s and 2010s, the situation worsened as temperatures back-filled into the new upper range set by the 1997 El Nino and then advanced still further.
Now, human greenhouse gas emissions are again amplifying peak global temperatures as a Monster El Nino that threatens to be worse than the 1997 event is sweltering the globe. Now temperatures worldwide are hitting 1 to 1.2 C above 1880s averages. And now the Indonesia wildfires are growing from an annual nation-spanning disaster, to an epic conflagration that threatens to destabilize an entire region.
The Worst Fire on Record, Again
To say that the Indonesian fires this year have been bad may well be the understatement to end all understatements. As of mid October more than 100,000 individual fires had been reported. By late October, damages to the Indonesian economy were estimated to have reached 30 billion dollars (or more than six times the economic impact of the 1997 wildfires). More than 6,000 schools were closed as an international firefighting effort involving an army of 22,000 firefighters proved inadequate to contain the massive-country spanning blazes.
An entire nation fell choking under black, gray, or toxic yellow skies. 500,000 people were reported sick. But not one person among Indonesia’s 43 million residents could pass a day without feeling the dark fingers of the peat smoke squeezing into their chest and lungs, doing untold future damage.
Thousands of miles away, places like Guam were forced to issue air quality alerts as the massive Indonesian smoke cloud was swept across vast swaths of ocean by storms or other weather systems. Indonesia’s peat fire smoke had now become a toxic export and neighboring nations were not at all happy at the vast, dark clouds spreading out from the burning lands.
Indonesia Wildfires
(Satellite shot of a smoke covered Indonesia on October 26 of 2015. Due to a combination of human forced warming of the globe and a Monster El Nino, Indonesia’s current record spate of wildfires could continue to burn until December. As of now, extremely hazardous air quality has Indonesian officials planning mass evacuations from smoke filled regions to hospitals and even to ships off shore. Image source: LANCE MODIS.)
The situation has gotten so bad that Indonesia has now set in place mass evacuation plans for the hardest hit regions. The government has distributed 7,000 air purifiers as part of its ‘shelter in place’ program. But for those who simply cannot manage the stifling airs, authorities are planning for transport into hospitals and, if that doesn’t work, to military, hospital, and converted cruise vessels waiting off shore. Government actions, in this case, speak louder than the official words. What they may as well be saying is that, for an ever-growing number of Indonesian citizens, human-forced climate change and slash and burn agriculture has rendered the land uninhabitable.
A Crime Against Humanity
Sutopo Puro Nugroho, the spokesperson for the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency neatly summed it up by stating: “This is a crime against humanity of extraordinary proportions…” The official then went on to state that now was not the time to point fingers. Now was the time to attempt to save lives.
And he’s right. The time to point fingers was years and years ago, before this disaster began to fully unfold. Back then, in the late 20th Century we had a chance to address the endemic corruption of political and economic systems made to depend on dangerous and amoral industries. But at least now we can acknowledge what should have been said long ago — slash and burn agriculture, in this case, joins with the fossil fuel industry to form what could best be described as a global climate crimes syndicate. One whose dark fruits are now coming into an ugly ripeness over Indonesia.
For this year, there’s no neat end in sight. This year, the rainy season may be delayed until at least December. And until that time the hothouse stoked, slash and burn lit fires will continue to belch their awful fume, continue to stifle Indonesia’s inhabitants, continue to add more greenhouse gasses to an already sweltering atmosphere. That is, until the rains do come. And when they do, it’s just a six month wait for another ridiculous burning season, a 1-6 year wait for another new fire-worsening global temperature record, and a 7-20 year wait for another monster El Nino. In the end, the final wait until all of Indonesia’s peatlands are burned may be as little as 30-100 years. A once lush and forested land turning to ruin before our very eyes.
Links:
Indonesia’s Fires Labeled ‘A Crime Against Humanity
Indonesia Fire Season Puts Chokehold on Record Books
Indonesia Under Fire
Choking Smoke — The Growing Curse of Indonesia’s Wildfires
Top 10 Devastating Wildfires
LANCE MODIS
http://robertscribbler.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
It’s official, the 2015 Indonesian wildfires are the worst that Island nation has ever experienced. Worse than even the terrible 1997 wildfires and possibly the worst wildfire disaster ever. And it’s all an upshot of what happens when slash and burn agriculture meets a once lush land now sweltering in a human hothouse world.
* * * *
There’s been something dreadfully wrong with Indonesia’s forests and peatlands ever since massive fires ignited across that island nation back in 1997. Back then, a monster El Nino — combined with heat from massive human greenhouse gas emissions — pushed the world to 0.7 to 0.8 C hotter than 1880s averages. Equatorial temperatures would never again fall to a normal threshold. And as the lands and surrounding oceans warmed, the dry season lengthened and the rainy season shortened.
Slash and burn agriculture, a mainstay practice for the region ever since industrial farms began to take root there in the middle 20th Century, always generated some fires. But before human greenhouse emissions brought on added heat and dryness, the situation was one of slow degradation rather than violent conflagration. Even during the dry season, mid-to-late 20th Century moisture levels were much higher and fires tended to be naturally suppressed by the lush wetness of the region. But now, with the added heat of human warming creating droughts in the peatlands, slash and burn agriculture essentially amounted to throwing burning embers into a powder keg.
Kuala Lumpur
(Kuala Lumpur, Maylasia swelters under peat-fire smog during late September of 2015. Ever since 1997, Indonesia has suffered severe seasonal wildfires. These fires are often set by corporate and individual farmers who use the fires to clear land. However, increased heat and drought caused by an increasingly vicious human-forced warming of the globe are creating a climate in which these fires, once set, tend to rage out of control. Image source: ALERT.)
As the heatwaves and droughts lengthened with amplifying human-forced warming, wildfires became endemic. Each year, the farmers burned more peatlands. Each year, the peatlands belched toxic smoke into the air, burning deeper and deeper into the carbon-rich ground, adding to and compounding the problem of human fossil fuel emissions and causing mass sickness and hospitalizations. In this dangerous new equatorial hothouse climate, even under the rains, the ground still smoldered, waiting for the longer, hotter dry seasons to return before again erupting into flame. All throughout the 2000s and 2010s, the situation worsened as temperatures back-filled into the new upper range set by the 1997 El Nino and then advanced still further.
Now, human greenhouse gas emissions are again amplifying peak global temperatures as a Monster El Nino that threatens to be worse than the 1997 event is sweltering the globe. Now temperatures worldwide are hitting 1 to 1.2 C above 1880s averages. And now the Indonesia wildfires are growing from an annual nation-spanning disaster, to an epic conflagration that threatens to destabilize an entire region.
The Worst Fire on Record, Again
To say that the Indonesian fires this year have been bad may well be the understatement to end all understatements. As of mid October more than 100,000 individual fires had been reported. By late October, damages to the Indonesian economy were estimated to have reached 30 billion dollars (or more than six times the economic impact of the 1997 wildfires). More than 6,000 schools were closed as an international firefighting effort involving an army of 22,000 firefighters proved inadequate to contain the massive-country spanning blazes.
An entire nation fell choking under black, gray, or toxic yellow skies. 500,000 people were reported sick. But not one person among Indonesia’s 43 million residents could pass a day without feeling the dark fingers of the peat smoke squeezing into their chest and lungs, doing untold future damage.
Thousands of miles away, places like Guam were forced to issue air quality alerts as the massive Indonesian smoke cloud was swept across vast swaths of ocean by storms or other weather systems. Indonesia’s peat fire smoke had now become a toxic export and neighboring nations were not at all happy at the vast, dark clouds spreading out from the burning lands.
Indonesia Wildfires
(Satellite shot of a smoke covered Indonesia on October 26 of 2015. Due to a combination of human forced warming of the globe and a Monster El Nino, Indonesia’s current record spate of wildfires could continue to burn until December. As of now, extremely hazardous air quality has Indonesian officials planning mass evacuations from smoke filled regions to hospitals and even to ships off shore. Image source: LANCE MODIS.)
The situation has gotten so bad that Indonesia has now set in place mass evacuation plans for the hardest hit regions. The government has distributed 7,000 air purifiers as part of its ‘shelter in place’ program. But for those who simply cannot manage the stifling airs, authorities are planning for transport into hospitals and, if that doesn’t work, to military, hospital, and converted cruise vessels waiting off shore. Government actions, in this case, speak louder than the official words. What they may as well be saying is that, for an ever-growing number of Indonesian citizens, human-forced climate change and slash and burn agriculture has rendered the land uninhabitable.
A Crime Against Humanity
Sutopo Puro Nugroho, the spokesperson for the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency neatly summed it up by stating: “This is a crime against humanity of extraordinary proportions…” The official then went on to state that now was not the time to point fingers. Now was the time to attempt to save lives.
And he’s right. The time to point fingers was years and years ago, before this disaster began to fully unfold. Back then, in the late 20th Century we had a chance to address the endemic corruption of political and economic systems made to depend on dangerous and amoral industries. But at least now we can acknowledge what should have been said long ago — slash and burn agriculture, in this case, joins with the fossil fuel industry to form what could best be described as a global climate crimes syndicate. One whose dark fruits are now coming into an ugly ripeness over Indonesia.
For this year, there’s no neat end in sight. This year, the rainy season may be delayed until at least December. And until that time the hothouse stoked, slash and burn lit fires will continue to belch their awful fume, continue to stifle Indonesia’s inhabitants, continue to add more greenhouse gasses to an already sweltering atmosphere. That is, until the rains do come. And when they do, it’s just a six month wait for another ridiculous burning season, a 1-6 year wait for another new fire-worsening global temperature record, and a 7-20 year wait for another monster El Nino. In the end, the final wait until all of Indonesia’s peatlands are burned may be as little as 30-100 years. A once lush and forested land turning to ruin before our very eyes.
Links:
Indonesia’s Fires Labeled ‘A Crime Against Humanity
Indonesia Fire Season Puts Chokehold on Record Books
Indonesia Under Fire
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msfreeh
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Re: Heat is Online
see link for full story
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/1 ... air-brain/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Climate
Exclusive: Elevated CO2 Levels Directly Affect Human Cognition, New Harvard Study Shows
by Joe Romm Oct 26, 2015 10:05am
CREDIT: Climate Interactive
In a landmark public health finding, a new study from the Harvard School of Public Health finds that carbon dioxide (CO2) has a direct and negative impact on human cognition and decision-making. These impacts have been observed at CO2 levels that most Americans — and their children — are routinely exposed to today inside classrooms, offices, homes, planes, and cars.
Advertisement
Carbon dioxide levels are inevitably higher indoors than the baseline set by the outdoor air used for ventilation, a baseline that is rising at an accelerating rate thanks to human activity, especially the burning of fossil fuels. So this seminal research has equally great importance for climate policy, providing an entirely new public health impetus for keeping global CO2 levels as low as possible.
In a series of articles, I will examine the implications for public health both today (indoors) as well as in the future (indoors and out) due to rising CO2 levels. This series is the result of a year-long investigation for Climate Progress and my new Oxford University Press book coming out next week, “Climate Change: What Everyone Needs to Know.” This investigative report is built on dozens of studies and literature reviews as well as exclusive interviews with many of the world’s leading experts in public health and indoor air quality, including authors of both studies.
What scientists have discovered about the impact of elevated carbon dioxide levels on the brain
Significantly, the Harvard study confirms the findings of a little-publicized 2012 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) study, “Is CO2 an Indoor Pollutant? Direct Effects of Low-to-Moderate CO2 Concentrations on Human Decision-Making Performance.” That study found “statistically significant and meaningful reductions in decision-making performance” in test subjects as CO2 levels rose from a baseline of 600 parts per million (ppm) to 1000 ppm and 2500 ppm.
Both the Harvard and LBNL studies made use of a sophisticated multi-variable assessment of human cognition used by a State University of New York (SUNY) Upstate Medical University team, led by Dr. Usha Satish. Both teams raised indoor CO2 levels while leaving all other factors constant. The findings of each team were published in the peer-reviewed open-access journal Environmental Health Perspectives put out by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, a part of NIH.
Advertisement
The new study, led by Dr. Joe Allen, Director of Harvard’s Healthy Buildings program, and Dr. John Spengler, Professor of Environmental Health and Human Habitation at Harvard, used a lower CO2 baseline than the earlier study. They found that, on average, a typical participant’s cognitive scores dropped 21 percent with a 400 ppm increase in CO2. Here are their astonishing findings for four of the nine cognitive functions scored in a double-blind test of the impact of elevated CO2 levels:
co2charts_1024
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/1 ... air-brain/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Climate
Exclusive: Elevated CO2 Levels Directly Affect Human Cognition, New Harvard Study Shows
by Joe Romm Oct 26, 2015 10:05am
CREDIT: Climate Interactive
In a landmark public health finding, a new study from the Harvard School of Public Health finds that carbon dioxide (CO2) has a direct and negative impact on human cognition and decision-making. These impacts have been observed at CO2 levels that most Americans — and their children — are routinely exposed to today inside classrooms, offices, homes, planes, and cars.
Advertisement
Carbon dioxide levels are inevitably higher indoors than the baseline set by the outdoor air used for ventilation, a baseline that is rising at an accelerating rate thanks to human activity, especially the burning of fossil fuels. So this seminal research has equally great importance for climate policy, providing an entirely new public health impetus for keeping global CO2 levels as low as possible.
In a series of articles, I will examine the implications for public health both today (indoors) as well as in the future (indoors and out) due to rising CO2 levels. This series is the result of a year-long investigation for Climate Progress and my new Oxford University Press book coming out next week, “Climate Change: What Everyone Needs to Know.” This investigative report is built on dozens of studies and literature reviews as well as exclusive interviews with many of the world’s leading experts in public health and indoor air quality, including authors of both studies.
What scientists have discovered about the impact of elevated carbon dioxide levels on the brain
Significantly, the Harvard study confirms the findings of a little-publicized 2012 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) study, “Is CO2 an Indoor Pollutant? Direct Effects of Low-to-Moderate CO2 Concentrations on Human Decision-Making Performance.” That study found “statistically significant and meaningful reductions in decision-making performance” in test subjects as CO2 levels rose from a baseline of 600 parts per million (ppm) to 1000 ppm and 2500 ppm.
Both the Harvard and LBNL studies made use of a sophisticated multi-variable assessment of human cognition used by a State University of New York (SUNY) Upstate Medical University team, led by Dr. Usha Satish. Both teams raised indoor CO2 levels while leaving all other factors constant. The findings of each team were published in the peer-reviewed open-access journal Environmental Health Perspectives put out by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, a part of NIH.
Advertisement
The new study, led by Dr. Joe Allen, Director of Harvard’s Healthy Buildings program, and Dr. John Spengler, Professor of Environmental Health and Human Habitation at Harvard, used a lower CO2 baseline than the earlier study. They found that, on average, a typical participant’s cognitive scores dropped 21 percent with a 400 ppm increase in CO2. Here are their astonishing findings for four of the nine cognitive functions scored in a double-blind test of the impact of elevated CO2 levels:
co2charts_1024
-
msfreeh
- Level 34 Illuminated
- Posts: 7718
Re: Heat is Online
An intolerable unimaginable heat forecast for Persian Gulf
http://www.boston.com/news/science/2015 ... stack_3_hp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
| 10.26.15 | 12:21 PM
— If carbon dioxide emissions continue at their current pace, by the end of century parts of the Persian Gulf will sometimes be just too hot for the human body to tolerate, a new study says.
How hot? The heat index — which combines heat and humidity — may hit 165 to 170 degrees (74 to 77 Celsius) for at least six hours, according to numerous computer simulations in the new study. That’s so hot that the human body can’t get rid of heat. The elderly and ill are hurt most by current heat waves, but the future is expected to be so hot that healthy, fit people would be endangered, health experts say.
http://www.boston.com/news/science/2015 ... stack_3_hp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
| 10.26.15 | 12:21 PM
— If carbon dioxide emissions continue at their current pace, by the end of century parts of the Persian Gulf will sometimes be just too hot for the human body to tolerate, a new study says.
How hot? The heat index — which combines heat and humidity — may hit 165 to 170 degrees (74 to 77 Celsius) for at least six hours, according to numerous computer simulations in the new study. That’s so hot that the human body can’t get rid of heat. The elderly and ill are hurt most by current heat waves, but the future is expected to be so hot that healthy, fit people would be endangered, health experts say.
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msfreeh
- Level 34 Illuminated
- Posts: 7718
Re: Heat is Online
yea and spring just began in South Africa
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=3171" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Dr. Jeff Masters
Weather Blog
South Africa Sets Earth's Hottest October Temperature on Record: 119°F
By: Jeff Masters , 2:33 PM GMT on October 29, 2015
Earth's hottest temperature ever recorded in the month of October occurred on Tuesday, October 27, 2015 in South Africa, when Vredendal hit a remarkable 48.4°C (119.1°F). According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, this is also the highest temperature ever observed at Vredendal and the third highest temperature in South African history. The new global October heat record was made possible by a "Berg wind"--a hot dry wind blowing down the Great Escarpment from the high central plateau to the coast. As the air descended it warmed via adiabatic compression, causing the record heat. These sorts of foehn winds are commonly responsible for all-time record temperatures; mainland Antarctica's all-time record high of 17.5°C (63.5°F), set on March 24, 2015, was due, in part, to a foehn wind (see wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt's blog post on this.)
According to Herrera, the previous world October heat record of 47.3°C was set at Campo Gallo, Argentina on 16 October 1936, and South Africa's highest reliable temperature for any month is 48.8°C (119.8°F), recorded at Vioosdrif in January 1993.
Figure 1. Five-minute resolution plot of the temperature at Vredendal, South Africa on October 27, 2015, when the station hit a remarkable 48.4°C (119.1°F)--an all-time record for the planet for the month of October. Image credit: South African Weather Service, with kudos to Gail Linnow.
Arabian Sea's Tropical Cyclone Chapala a threat to Yemen and Oman
In the Arabian Sea, Tropical Cyclone Chapala has spun up to hurricane strength, with top winds of 75 mph estimated at 8 am EDT Thursday by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Chapala is expected to take advantage of low wind shear, warm ocean waters near 30°C (86°F) and favorable upper-level outflow to intensify into a Category 4 storm by Sunday. Thereafter, weakening is likely as the storm encounters higher wind shear, lower oceanic heat content, and interaction with land. Chapala is likely to make landfall on Monday in a sparsely populated area near the border of Yemen and Oman.
Figure 2. Tropical Cyclone Chapala as seen by the VIIRS instrument at 08:30 UTC October 29, 2015. At the time, Chapala was intensifying from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.
Jeff Masters
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=3171" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Dr. Jeff Masters
Weather Blog
South Africa Sets Earth's Hottest October Temperature on Record: 119°F
By: Jeff Masters , 2:33 PM GMT on October 29, 2015
Earth's hottest temperature ever recorded in the month of October occurred on Tuesday, October 27, 2015 in South Africa, when Vredendal hit a remarkable 48.4°C (119.1°F). According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, this is also the highest temperature ever observed at Vredendal and the third highest temperature in South African history. The new global October heat record was made possible by a "Berg wind"--a hot dry wind blowing down the Great Escarpment from the high central plateau to the coast. As the air descended it warmed via adiabatic compression, causing the record heat. These sorts of foehn winds are commonly responsible for all-time record temperatures; mainland Antarctica's all-time record high of 17.5°C (63.5°F), set on March 24, 2015, was due, in part, to a foehn wind (see wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt's blog post on this.)
According to Herrera, the previous world October heat record of 47.3°C was set at Campo Gallo, Argentina on 16 October 1936, and South Africa's highest reliable temperature for any month is 48.8°C (119.8°F), recorded at Vioosdrif in January 1993.
Figure 1. Five-minute resolution plot of the temperature at Vredendal, South Africa on October 27, 2015, when the station hit a remarkable 48.4°C (119.1°F)--an all-time record for the planet for the month of October. Image credit: South African Weather Service, with kudos to Gail Linnow.
Arabian Sea's Tropical Cyclone Chapala a threat to Yemen and Oman
In the Arabian Sea, Tropical Cyclone Chapala has spun up to hurricane strength, with top winds of 75 mph estimated at 8 am EDT Thursday by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Chapala is expected to take advantage of low wind shear, warm ocean waters near 30°C (86°F) and favorable upper-level outflow to intensify into a Category 4 storm by Sunday. Thereafter, weakening is likely as the storm encounters higher wind shear, lower oceanic heat content, and interaction with land. Chapala is likely to make landfall on Monday in a sparsely populated area near the border of Yemen and Oman.
Figure 2. Tropical Cyclone Chapala as seen by the VIIRS instrument at 08:30 UTC October 29, 2015. At the time, Chapala was intensifying from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.
Jeff Masters
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msfreeh
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- Posts: 7718
Re: Heat is Online
http://robertscribbler.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Unprecedented Cyclone Chapala Bears Down on Yemen
Chapala, now the unprecedented 23rd category 4 or category 5 tropical cyclone to form during 2015, is bearing down on the nation of Yemen. A nation that is likely to experience hurricane force winds and may receive as much as 8 years worth of rainfall from Chapala’s intense spiral bands over a 24-48 hour period.
Chapala Bears down on Yemen
(Unprecedented category 4 Chapala bears down on Yemen in the Halloween satellite shot. Image source: NOAA.)
* * * * *
After a rapid bombification on Friday, Cyclone Chapala became the most intense storm on record to form so far south in the Indian Ocean. Like Patricia, this storm gathered strength in waters that were much hotter than normal (+1 to +2 C above average for the region). Like Patricia, the storm rapidly intensified in a single 24 hour period — gaining 90 mph of wind intensity in just one day. And like the 5 billion dollar weather event that was Patricia, Chapala threatens severe damage along its likely land-falling path. A hothouse storm for a hothouse world that in 2015 has seen the previous record for the rate of formation of the most intense tropical cyclones shattered by five storms so far this year. The previous record, set in 2004 was for 18 such storms over a one year period. Now, the new record is 23 and counting.
Chapala is expected to track west-by-northwest, weakening to a category 1 or 2 storm just before making landfall in Yemen on Monday. At that point the storm is predicted to dump as much as 12 to 16 inches of rain over parts of Yemen. If this happens as current weather models predict, parts of Yemen which typically receive less than 2 inches of rain per year may see as much as 8 years or more worth of rain fall over the course of a day or two.
Chapala predicted path
(Chapala’s predicted path and intensity brings an unprecedented rain-maker to Yemen. One that is capable of delivering as much as 8 years worth of rainfall in 1-2 days. Image source: Joint Typhoon Warning Center.)
Large, powerful storms of this kind do not typically track into Yemen. And the predicted and possible rainfall amounts would almost certainly shatter all-time records for the arid state. A potential event that Dr. Jeff Masters over at WeatherUnderground yesterday called unprecedented. Such heavy rains would hit a region that is not at all equipped for dealing with so much water falling from the skies. Dry lands that form a hard baked surface will tend to enhance pooling and run-off. Regions that typically see extreme flooding from just 1 or 2 inches of rainfall could see 5 to 10 times as much. Needless to say, this is a developing and dangerous situation that bears careful monitoring.
Conditions in Context — Powerful Hurricanes in a Hothouse World
2015 will close out as the hottest year in the 135 year climate record. It will hit temperatures, globally, about 1.1 to 1.2 C hotter than 1880s averages. This extreme temperature departure, is nearly 1/3 of the difference between 1880 and the last ice age — but on the side of hot. An extreme heating that is starting to force the glaciers of the world to rapidly melt, the seas to rapidly rise, the oceans to rapidly decline in health, and climates around the world to rapidly destabilize.
The oceans of the world draw in more than 90 percent of this excess heat energy. The added energy at the ocean surface, in its turn, provides more fuel for the most intense category 4 and category 5 tropical cyclones. These storms draw their energy directly from heat and moisture at the ocean surface. So as we, through our burning of fossil fuels and emitting of greenhouse gasses which in turn warms the climate, are unwittingly both increasing the frequency of strong storms as well as adding to their maximum potential energy.
During recent years, we have seen greater and greater numbers of the most intense versions of these storms globally. During 2004 a new record number for category 4 and 5 cyclones was breached, only to be supplanted this year with the formation, so far, of 23 of these monster cyclones. In addition, the number of records for most intense storms for regions seems to be falling at an increasing rate. In 2013, cyclone Haiyan, roared into the record books as one of the most intense storms the world had ever seen. And this year we have two all-time basin records — Patricia and Chapala.
The human hothouse, thus appears to be providing more storms of high intensity. And with more warming in store — with nations, corporations, and politicians continuing to fight to delay climate action, ever more dangerous storms are coming.
Links:
NOAA
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Cyclone Chapala Likely to Make Rare, Destructive Landfall
2015 Sets Record for Most Category 4 or Category 5 Hurricanes
Weather Channel Update on Chapala
Hat Tip to Colorado Bob
Unprecedented Cyclone Chapala Bears Down on Yemen
Chapala, now the unprecedented 23rd category 4 or category 5 tropical cyclone to form during 2015, is bearing down on the nation of Yemen. A nation that is likely to experience hurricane force winds and may receive as much as 8 years worth of rainfall from Chapala’s intense spiral bands over a 24-48 hour period.
Chapala Bears down on Yemen
(Unprecedented category 4 Chapala bears down on Yemen in the Halloween satellite shot. Image source: NOAA.)
* * * * *
After a rapid bombification on Friday, Cyclone Chapala became the most intense storm on record to form so far south in the Indian Ocean. Like Patricia, this storm gathered strength in waters that were much hotter than normal (+1 to +2 C above average for the region). Like Patricia, the storm rapidly intensified in a single 24 hour period — gaining 90 mph of wind intensity in just one day. And like the 5 billion dollar weather event that was Patricia, Chapala threatens severe damage along its likely land-falling path. A hothouse storm for a hothouse world that in 2015 has seen the previous record for the rate of formation of the most intense tropical cyclones shattered by five storms so far this year. The previous record, set in 2004 was for 18 such storms over a one year period. Now, the new record is 23 and counting.
Chapala is expected to track west-by-northwest, weakening to a category 1 or 2 storm just before making landfall in Yemen on Monday. At that point the storm is predicted to dump as much as 12 to 16 inches of rain over parts of Yemen. If this happens as current weather models predict, parts of Yemen which typically receive less than 2 inches of rain per year may see as much as 8 years or more worth of rain fall over the course of a day or two.
Chapala predicted path
(Chapala’s predicted path and intensity brings an unprecedented rain-maker to Yemen. One that is capable of delivering as much as 8 years worth of rainfall in 1-2 days. Image source: Joint Typhoon Warning Center.)
Large, powerful storms of this kind do not typically track into Yemen. And the predicted and possible rainfall amounts would almost certainly shatter all-time records for the arid state. A potential event that Dr. Jeff Masters over at WeatherUnderground yesterday called unprecedented. Such heavy rains would hit a region that is not at all equipped for dealing with so much water falling from the skies. Dry lands that form a hard baked surface will tend to enhance pooling and run-off. Regions that typically see extreme flooding from just 1 or 2 inches of rainfall could see 5 to 10 times as much. Needless to say, this is a developing and dangerous situation that bears careful monitoring.
Conditions in Context — Powerful Hurricanes in a Hothouse World
2015 will close out as the hottest year in the 135 year climate record. It will hit temperatures, globally, about 1.1 to 1.2 C hotter than 1880s averages. This extreme temperature departure, is nearly 1/3 of the difference between 1880 and the last ice age — but on the side of hot. An extreme heating that is starting to force the glaciers of the world to rapidly melt, the seas to rapidly rise, the oceans to rapidly decline in health, and climates around the world to rapidly destabilize.
The oceans of the world draw in more than 90 percent of this excess heat energy. The added energy at the ocean surface, in its turn, provides more fuel for the most intense category 4 and category 5 tropical cyclones. These storms draw their energy directly from heat and moisture at the ocean surface. So as we, through our burning of fossil fuels and emitting of greenhouse gasses which in turn warms the climate, are unwittingly both increasing the frequency of strong storms as well as adding to their maximum potential energy.
During recent years, we have seen greater and greater numbers of the most intense versions of these storms globally. During 2004 a new record number for category 4 and 5 cyclones was breached, only to be supplanted this year with the formation, so far, of 23 of these monster cyclones. In addition, the number of records for most intense storms for regions seems to be falling at an increasing rate. In 2013, cyclone Haiyan, roared into the record books as one of the most intense storms the world had ever seen. And this year we have two all-time basin records — Patricia and Chapala.
The human hothouse, thus appears to be providing more storms of high intensity. And with more warming in store — with nations, corporations, and politicians continuing to fight to delay climate action, ever more dangerous storms are coming.
Links:
NOAA
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Cyclone Chapala Likely to Make Rare, Destructive Landfall
2015 Sets Record for Most Category 4 or Category 5 Hurricanes
Weather Channel Update on Chapala
Hat Tip to Colorado Bob
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msfreeh
- Level 34 Illuminated
- Posts: 7718
Re: Heat is Online
http://www.skepticalscience.com/must-st ... -2018.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
A Hard Deadline: We Must Stop Building New Carbon Infrastructure by 2018
Posted on 13 July 2015 by Guest Author
This is a re-post from The Leap by Stephen Leahy
In only three years there will be enough fossil fuel-burning stuff—cars, homes, factories, power plants, etc.—built to blow through our carbon budget for a 2 degrees Celsius temperature rise. Never mind staying below a safer, saner 1.5°C of global warming. The relentless laws of physics have given us a hard, non-negotiable deadline, making G7 statements about a fossil fuel-phase out by 2100 or a weak deal at the UN climate talks in Paris irrelevant.
“By 2018, no new cars, homes, schools, factories, or electrical power plants should be built anywhere in the world, ever again unless they’re either replacements for old ones or are carbon neutral? Are you sure I worked that out right?” I asked Steve Davis of the University of California, co-author of a new climate study.
“We didn’t go that far in our study. But yes, your numbers are broadly correct. That’s what this study means,” Davis told me over the phone last fall.
Davis and co-author Robert Socolow of Princeton University published a groundbreaking paper in Environmental Research Letters last August, entitled “Commitment accounting of CO2 emissions.” A new coal plant will emit CO2 throughout its 40- to 60- year lifespan. That’s called a carbon commitment. A new truck or car will mean at least 10 years of CO2 emissions. Davis and Socolow’s study estimated how much CO2 will be emitted by most things that burn oil, gas, or coal, and it is the first to actually total up all of these carbon commitments.
Based on their work, I estimated that if we continue to build new fossil fuel burning stuff at the average rate of the last five years, we’ll make enough new carbon commitments to blow through our 2°C carbon budget sometime in 2018.
“Is that really where we are?” I asked Davis.
There was a pause, and I could hear the happy sounds of children playing from his end of the phone. Eventually Davis said “yes, that’s where we find ourselves.”
Our conversation then became awkward. I suddenly felt guilty bringing this up, and desperately tried not to think that one day those happy children will despise us for leaving them a ransacked planet whipsawed by a chaotic climate.
“My kids’ swimming lesson is over, I have to go,” he finally said.
I couldn’t accept that we need to immediately slow production of new things like factories, hospitals, homes, and ten thousand other things that use fossil fuels. I couldn’t accept that everything had to change…right away. I sent out emails to leading scientists in different countries practically begging them to tell me I screwed up the math or something. “It’s a different way of looking at where we are but you’ve got it right,” they said.
2018 is less than three years away and hardly anyone is talking about this.
Well-established science that says global CO2 emissions need to peak and decline before 2020. Wait until after 2020 and the costs of reducing emissions rise rapidly, as does the risk of exceeding 2°C. The 2018 deadline is consistent with this. It just happens to be a more meaningful way of looking at where we stand, and the consequences of the decisions being made today to build a school, a data center, or 10,000 diesel-powered farm tractors.
One reason 2°C is becoming increasingly unreachable is that everyone is fixated on annual CO2 emissions. While humanity pumped an eye-popping 36 billion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere in 2014, that big number looks tiny compared to the roughly 1,000 billion tons of CO2—or 1,000 gigatons (Gt)—that can be emitted for a better than 50-50 chance of staying below 2°C, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s most recent report.
And yet, without making different choices today, we will have built enough stuff by 2018 to have accounted for that entire budget. We could shut things down before their end-of-life date, but who is going to make that happen? Who is going to pay for such “stranded assets”?
When I asked Robert Socolow of Princeton about all this, he said: “We’ve been hiding what’s going on from ourselves: A high-carbon future is being locked in by the world’s capital investments.”
To repeat: “A high-carbon future is being locked in by the world’s capital investments.”
Right now the data shows that “we’re embracing fossil fuels more than ever,” Socolow said.
In May, Volvo announced a new $500 million factory in the US that will produce 100,000 cars a year in 2018. Not to pick on one car company, but the CO2 from those cars will take us over the 2°C budget, further into the danger zone of climatic disaster.
Decisions made today matter more than any time in human history.
Carbon dioxide is like a slow, trans-generational poison. Add CO2 to the atmosphere today and it will trap additional heat from the sun for hundreds of years. No one will notice in 2018 that we’ve built enough fossil fuel infrastructure to blow through the 2°C budget. Things won’t look or feel too much different than right now. The extremely nasty impacts of being trapped in an ever-hotter world won’t be fully felt until 2030 or 2040 —and then they will persist for a very, very long time.
It is blindingly obvious that building more things that use coal, oil, and gas equals more CO2 emissions. And building these things keeps it profitable for companies and countries to invest in extracting more climate-destroying fossil fuels.
Even a seven-year old child knows you don’t solve a problem by making it worse.
There is a slow shift underway to replace fossil fuels, but it’s not happening nearly fast enough considering the massive carbon commitments in the stuff we already have built—and continue to build. Politicians, business leaders, investors, planners, bureaucrats don’t seem to understand this. They don’t seem to truly grasp that decisions made today commit us and every generation that follows to greater levels of CO2. At some point those decisions will be undone. What was built will be abandoned at enormous cost. We should not forget who deserves the blame and the bill.
This is what the upcoming Paris climate talks are actually about—except that few of the people who will meet inside the giant Le Bourget conference hall know it. Or if they do, they don’t talk about it. Someone should.
A Hard Deadline: We Must Stop Building New Carbon Infrastructure by 2018
Posted on 13 July 2015 by Guest Author
This is a re-post from The Leap by Stephen Leahy
In only three years there will be enough fossil fuel-burning stuff—cars, homes, factories, power plants, etc.—built to blow through our carbon budget for a 2 degrees Celsius temperature rise. Never mind staying below a safer, saner 1.5°C of global warming. The relentless laws of physics have given us a hard, non-negotiable deadline, making G7 statements about a fossil fuel-phase out by 2100 or a weak deal at the UN climate talks in Paris irrelevant.
“By 2018, no new cars, homes, schools, factories, or electrical power plants should be built anywhere in the world, ever again unless they’re either replacements for old ones or are carbon neutral? Are you sure I worked that out right?” I asked Steve Davis of the University of California, co-author of a new climate study.
“We didn’t go that far in our study. But yes, your numbers are broadly correct. That’s what this study means,” Davis told me over the phone last fall.
Davis and co-author Robert Socolow of Princeton University published a groundbreaking paper in Environmental Research Letters last August, entitled “Commitment accounting of CO2 emissions.” A new coal plant will emit CO2 throughout its 40- to 60- year lifespan. That’s called a carbon commitment. A new truck or car will mean at least 10 years of CO2 emissions. Davis and Socolow’s study estimated how much CO2 will be emitted by most things that burn oil, gas, or coal, and it is the first to actually total up all of these carbon commitments.
Based on their work, I estimated that if we continue to build new fossil fuel burning stuff at the average rate of the last five years, we’ll make enough new carbon commitments to blow through our 2°C carbon budget sometime in 2018.
“Is that really where we are?” I asked Davis.
There was a pause, and I could hear the happy sounds of children playing from his end of the phone. Eventually Davis said “yes, that’s where we find ourselves.”
Our conversation then became awkward. I suddenly felt guilty bringing this up, and desperately tried not to think that one day those happy children will despise us for leaving them a ransacked planet whipsawed by a chaotic climate.
“My kids’ swimming lesson is over, I have to go,” he finally said.
I couldn’t accept that we need to immediately slow production of new things like factories, hospitals, homes, and ten thousand other things that use fossil fuels. I couldn’t accept that everything had to change…right away. I sent out emails to leading scientists in different countries practically begging them to tell me I screwed up the math or something. “It’s a different way of looking at where we are but you’ve got it right,” they said.
2018 is less than three years away and hardly anyone is talking about this.
Well-established science that says global CO2 emissions need to peak and decline before 2020. Wait until after 2020 and the costs of reducing emissions rise rapidly, as does the risk of exceeding 2°C. The 2018 deadline is consistent with this. It just happens to be a more meaningful way of looking at where we stand, and the consequences of the decisions being made today to build a school, a data center, or 10,000 diesel-powered farm tractors.
One reason 2°C is becoming increasingly unreachable is that everyone is fixated on annual CO2 emissions. While humanity pumped an eye-popping 36 billion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere in 2014, that big number looks tiny compared to the roughly 1,000 billion tons of CO2—or 1,000 gigatons (Gt)—that can be emitted for a better than 50-50 chance of staying below 2°C, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s most recent report.
And yet, without making different choices today, we will have built enough stuff by 2018 to have accounted for that entire budget. We could shut things down before their end-of-life date, but who is going to make that happen? Who is going to pay for such “stranded assets”?
When I asked Robert Socolow of Princeton about all this, he said: “We’ve been hiding what’s going on from ourselves: A high-carbon future is being locked in by the world’s capital investments.”
To repeat: “A high-carbon future is being locked in by the world’s capital investments.”
Right now the data shows that “we’re embracing fossil fuels more than ever,” Socolow said.
In May, Volvo announced a new $500 million factory in the US that will produce 100,000 cars a year in 2018. Not to pick on one car company, but the CO2 from those cars will take us over the 2°C budget, further into the danger zone of climatic disaster.
Decisions made today matter more than any time in human history.
Carbon dioxide is like a slow, trans-generational poison. Add CO2 to the atmosphere today and it will trap additional heat from the sun for hundreds of years. No one will notice in 2018 that we’ve built enough fossil fuel infrastructure to blow through the 2°C budget. Things won’t look or feel too much different than right now. The extremely nasty impacts of being trapped in an ever-hotter world won’t be fully felt until 2030 or 2040 —and then they will persist for a very, very long time.
It is blindingly obvious that building more things that use coal, oil, and gas equals more CO2 emissions. And building these things keeps it profitable for companies and countries to invest in extracting more climate-destroying fossil fuels.
Even a seven-year old child knows you don’t solve a problem by making it worse.
There is a slow shift underway to replace fossil fuels, but it’s not happening nearly fast enough considering the massive carbon commitments in the stuff we already have built—and continue to build. Politicians, business leaders, investors, planners, bureaucrats don’t seem to understand this. They don’t seem to truly grasp that decisions made today commit us and every generation that follows to greater levels of CO2. At some point those decisions will be undone. What was built will be abandoned at enormous cost. We should not forget who deserves the blame and the bill.
This is what the upcoming Paris climate talks are actually about—except that few of the people who will meet inside the giant Le Bourget conference hall know it. Or if they do, they don’t talk about it. Someone should.
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October of 2015 May be the Hottest Month Ever Recorded — A Record That May Stand For But a Month
One thousand six hundred and eighteen (1618) — that’s how many months we have in all of the global temperature record starting in 1880. And early indications are that October of 2015 was possibly the hottest month out of them all. A record hot month, during a record hot year, in a record hot world. A new extreme temperature record that may just stand for one or two months as temperatures are likely to continue to climb coordinate with the peak of a Monster El Nino in the Pacific.
* * * *
As of today’s NOAA El Nino report, sea surface temperatures in the key Nino 3.4 zone had hit a range of 2.7 degrees Celsius above the climatological average. These temperatures are about equal to maximum weekly values achieved during the 1997 El Nino — which in many respects was considered to be the strongest on record. This most recent heat spike puts the 2015 El Nino within striking distance of being the most intense El Nino ever witnessed.
ocean-heat-content
(A sky-rocketing global ocean heat content is, through the agency of a monster El Nino, in the process of backing up into the atmosphere — pushing global temperatures to new all-time record highs. Image source: NOAA NODC.)
As with most El Ninos, the result is that excess ocean heat is backing up into the atmosphere at a heightened rate — pushing global temperatures higher. In a normal year, on a normal Holocene Earth, this would have temporarily spiked atmospheric temperatures. But this year, the record El Nino is being fueled by oceans that are taking in an unprecedented amount of heat. Heat re-radiated by an atmosphere loaded with greenhouse gasses in the range of 400 ppm CO2 and 485 ppm CO2e. And now the oceans, being the greatest store of heat energy on Earth and sucking up more than 90 percent of the added heat due to human forced warming, are returning the favor.
Hottest October on Record
As a result, the world is now experiencing some of the hottest temperatures ever seen. The year of 2014, when the Pacific began to settle into the current El Nino trend, was the hottest on record. But that new global high temperature mark didn’t last long. For as that human-accumulated ocean heat continued to bleed back into the atmosphere, 2015 set a path to supplant 2014 as the new record holder. Global temperatures were raging to new heights. But the worst was still to come.
With a record El Nino starting to hit its peak in a hothouse world what we’re in for over the next few months is likely to be something, yet again, unprecedented. And already, early NCAR data reanalysis points toward October of 2015 being the hottest month ever recorded.
NCAR reanalysis
(Reanalysis of NCAR global temperature data shows that October of 2015 was the hottest month in the global climate record. Temperature averages in the above graph are comparable to a 1994 to 2013 baseline that’s about 0.7 degrees Celsius hotter than 1880s averages. The new departure, according to Nick Stoke’s reanalysis is +0.2 C hotter than September and +0.15 C hotter than the previous hottest month ever recorded — January of 2007. Image source: Moyhu.)
According to early reports from Nick Stokes (a retired CSIRO scientist) at the climate blog Moyhu, NCAR temperature reanalysis has put October at the hottest in the global climate record at +0.567 C above the 1994 to 2013 average. This shoves October into the range of +1.18 C above the 1951 to 1980 average and about +1.38 C above 1880s averages (in the NCAR context). Since GISS has tended to range a bit cooler than the NCAR figures this Fall, Nick estimates LOTI temperatures from the NASA analysis are likely to hit a range of +1 C above the NASA baseline or about +1.2 to +1.3 C above 1880s values in that measure.
If these NCAR comparisons bear out, they would make October of 2015 the hottest month in all of the global climate record in both the NCAR and the GISS measures. Notably, Nick Stokes NCAR figure shows a substantial +0.15 C departure above the previous record during January of 2007. A NASA GISS figure of +1 C would also beat out January of 2007 as the hottest month ever in the global climate record, but by a somewhat smaller +0.03 C margin.
Even so, as a record or near record El Nino continues to hit maximum warmth in the Pacific, it is likely that more monthly global temperature records are in the pipe. Peak surface global temperatures typically occur during the months after El Nino hits top intensity. So it is both possible and likely that November, December, January, February and even March could continue to explore new maximum monthly temperature thresholds. Meanwhile, the inertia of all that extra ocean heat bleeding back into the atmosphere presents a decent chance that 2016 could even beat out 2015 as the new yearly record holder. It all really depends on if El Nino spikes still higher and if that peak extends significantly into next year.
In any case, the human hothouse is again re-writing the record books.
Links:
NOAA’s Weekly El Nino Report
NOAA NODC
NCAR/NECP Index up 0.2 C in October
NASA GISS
Hat Tip to Wharf Rat
October of 2015 May be the Hottest Month Ever Recorded — A Record That May Stand For But a Month
One thousand six hundred and eighteen (1618) — that’s how many months we have in all of the global temperature record starting in 1880. And early indications are that October of 2015 was possibly the hottest month out of them all. A record hot month, during a record hot year, in a record hot world. A new extreme temperature record that may just stand for one or two months as temperatures are likely to continue to climb coordinate with the peak of a Monster El Nino in the Pacific.
* * * *
As of today’s NOAA El Nino report, sea surface temperatures in the key Nino 3.4 zone had hit a range of 2.7 degrees Celsius above the climatological average. These temperatures are about equal to maximum weekly values achieved during the 1997 El Nino — which in many respects was considered to be the strongest on record. This most recent heat spike puts the 2015 El Nino within striking distance of being the most intense El Nino ever witnessed.
ocean-heat-content
(A sky-rocketing global ocean heat content is, through the agency of a monster El Nino, in the process of backing up into the atmosphere — pushing global temperatures to new all-time record highs. Image source: NOAA NODC.)
As with most El Ninos, the result is that excess ocean heat is backing up into the atmosphere at a heightened rate — pushing global temperatures higher. In a normal year, on a normal Holocene Earth, this would have temporarily spiked atmospheric temperatures. But this year, the record El Nino is being fueled by oceans that are taking in an unprecedented amount of heat. Heat re-radiated by an atmosphere loaded with greenhouse gasses in the range of 400 ppm CO2 and 485 ppm CO2e. And now the oceans, being the greatest store of heat energy on Earth and sucking up more than 90 percent of the added heat due to human forced warming, are returning the favor.
Hottest October on Record
As a result, the world is now experiencing some of the hottest temperatures ever seen. The year of 2014, when the Pacific began to settle into the current El Nino trend, was the hottest on record. But that new global high temperature mark didn’t last long. For as that human-accumulated ocean heat continued to bleed back into the atmosphere, 2015 set a path to supplant 2014 as the new record holder. Global temperatures were raging to new heights. But the worst was still to come.
With a record El Nino starting to hit its peak in a hothouse world what we’re in for over the next few months is likely to be something, yet again, unprecedented. And already, early NCAR data reanalysis points toward October of 2015 being the hottest month ever recorded.
NCAR reanalysis
(Reanalysis of NCAR global temperature data shows that October of 2015 was the hottest month in the global climate record. Temperature averages in the above graph are comparable to a 1994 to 2013 baseline that’s about 0.7 degrees Celsius hotter than 1880s averages. The new departure, according to Nick Stoke’s reanalysis is +0.2 C hotter than September and +0.15 C hotter than the previous hottest month ever recorded — January of 2007. Image source: Moyhu.)
According to early reports from Nick Stokes (a retired CSIRO scientist) at the climate blog Moyhu, NCAR temperature reanalysis has put October at the hottest in the global climate record at +0.567 C above the 1994 to 2013 average. This shoves October into the range of +1.18 C above the 1951 to 1980 average and about +1.38 C above 1880s averages (in the NCAR context). Since GISS has tended to range a bit cooler than the NCAR figures this Fall, Nick estimates LOTI temperatures from the NASA analysis are likely to hit a range of +1 C above the NASA baseline or about +1.2 to +1.3 C above 1880s values in that measure.
If these NCAR comparisons bear out, they would make October of 2015 the hottest month in all of the global climate record in both the NCAR and the GISS measures. Notably, Nick Stokes NCAR figure shows a substantial +0.15 C departure above the previous record during January of 2007. A NASA GISS figure of +1 C would also beat out January of 2007 as the hottest month ever in the global climate record, but by a somewhat smaller +0.03 C margin.
Even so, as a record or near record El Nino continues to hit maximum warmth in the Pacific, it is likely that more monthly global temperature records are in the pipe. Peak surface global temperatures typically occur during the months after El Nino hits top intensity. So it is both possible and likely that November, December, January, February and even March could continue to explore new maximum monthly temperature thresholds. Meanwhile, the inertia of all that extra ocean heat bleeding back into the atmosphere presents a decent chance that 2016 could even beat out 2015 as the new yearly record holder. It all really depends on if El Nino spikes still higher and if that peak extends significantly into next year.
In any case, the human hothouse is again re-writing the record books.
Links:
NOAA’s Weekly El Nino Report
NOAA NODC
NCAR/NECP Index up 0.2 C in October
NASA GISS
Hat Tip to Wharf Rat
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The Frankentides are Coming — US East Coast to See Season of Flooding From El Nino + Sea Level Rise This Winter
According to preliminary reports from NOAA, this Fall, Winter and Spring will likely bring an abnormal number of flooding tides to the US East Coast. These emperor and king tides are primarily driven by sea level rise — a knock on impact of human-forced warming. But during an El Nino year, as with this year, wind patterns along the East Coast tend to drive tides even higher. At El Nino times, lows tend to form off the US East Coast. These lows tend to generate a consistent northeasterly wind that pushes against the northward flow of the Gulf Stream. This action reduces the Gulf Stream’s ability to pull water away from our shores, and some of that water rebounds against the US East Coast.
During a normal year, this would somewhat increase the height of East Coast tides. But, due to Greenland melt pumping fresh water into the North Atlantic, the heat and salt driven circulation that generates the Gulf Stream is weakening (See Signs of Gulf Stream Weakening). So this year’s series of El Nino lows are forming over seas that are already rebounding against the US East Coast. Forming in seas that have already risen due to the melting of glaciers around the world. A NOAA press release from September notes that recent findings:
“…build upon two nuisance flooding reports issued last year led by NOAA scientists William Sweet and John Marra. The previously published reports show coastal communities in the United States have experienced a rapid growth in the frequency of nuisance tidal flooding, a 300 to 925 percent increase since the 1960s, and will likely cross inundation tipping points in the coming decades as tides become higher with sea level rise”
“We know that nuisance flooding is happening more often because of rising sea levels, but it is important to recognize that weather and ocean patterns brought on by El Niño can compound this trend,” said Sweet.”
image
(The 2015 El Nino — the year sea level rise came home to roost for the US East Coast. NOAA predicts a significant increase in the number of tidal flooding events all up and down the East Coast due to a combination of El Nino and impacts related to human-forced climate change. Image source: NOAA.)
It is due to this confluence of factors that we are likely to see some pretty extreme flooding tides anywhere from Miami to Maine. Flooding tides that, according to NOAA, are 33 to 125 percent more frequent than even the recently elevated trend. Tides that, as we have already seen (see below) are much higher than during any typical year — El Nino or no. Such impacts are likely to occur even without the influence of strong Nor’easters. But for the East Coast, Nor’easters and El Nino tend to go hand in hand.
So it’s shaping up to be a flooding season. One that wouldn’t have happened before. One brought on by the impacts of a human-forced warming. And one that is but a harbinger of more flooding to come.
Fall of 2015 Already Seeing Substantial Inundation Events
Over the past few weeks, a freak series of high tides inundated large sections of the U.S. East Coast. In Charleston, South Carolina, on October 27, a high tide peaked at 8.67 feet above mean low water. That’s the highest tide for Charleston since Hurricane Hugo roared ashore in 1989. But in this case, there was no category 4 hurricane. Just a ridiculous amount of water flooding in from the ocean. In Savannah, Georgia tides ran 10.43 feet above normal on the same day. Again, no storm, just a rising ocean flooding out roadways and inundating homes and neighborhoods. Only a couple of days later, on October 29th, large sections of Boston Harbor flooded under perfectly blue skies.
Tybee Flood
(Flooding, primarily due to sea level rise and an extreme high tide, inundates coastal lands near Tybee, Georgia on October 27th. It was the worst flooding since a category 2 hurricane hit the region in 1935. This year, there was no hurricane. Just sea level rise caused by human forced warming combined with the typical impacts of El Nino on East Coast tides. Image source: Blame Sea Level Rise.)
For stormless days, this level of tidal flooding is unprecedented. It’s a validation, just one month later, of NOAA predictions. If anything, these tides were even higher than expected. Tides influenced by sea level rise, glacial melt in Greenland, and by an El Nino driven shift in wind patterns. Had these tides coincided with a strong Nor’easter or a Hurricane, what we’d be looking at is a level of flooding that would almost certainly have exceeded the worst such events ever to strike the US East Coast. In effect, what we see is that sea level rise due to human forced warming of the globe is starting to have a greater and greater impact on these shores. An awful and early impact that will only worsen as time and human warming progress.
A Global Problem Set Off By Human Warming
Over the longer term, there are a lot of people in the path of this global trend of rising waters. In the US alone, more than 143 million people live in coastal communities. And the seas, due to human-forced warming are on the rise.
But its not just the US East Coast that’s in trouble. Practically everywhere, seas are rising. Global temperature increases of about 1 degrees Celsius above 1880s values are causing the oceans to thermally expand. In addition, glacial melt from mountain systems, Greenland and Antarctica is contributing ever-increasing volumes of water to the global ocean, forcing on the waters’ rise at ever-increasing rates. Currently, long term trends indicate a 3.3 millimeter per year average increase in the height of the world’s oceans (from 1993 to present). And as the world starts to close in on 2 degrees Celsius above 1880s averages, the pace of that rise is expected to ramp up and up.
Already, current sea level rise presents increasing problems to coastal regions across the globe. Much of the impacts we presently see are due to salt water invasion of low lying regions, nuisance flooding events, the amplification of storm driven tides, and increasing instances of what are now called king and emperor tides. Adding complexity to this global warming related problem is the fact that seas do not rise in a uniform manner. This lack of global uniformity of sea level rise results from gravity’s affects on the displacement of waters and from the influence of water outflows from glaciers on ocean currents. As a result, global sea level rise can generate hot spots where rates of rise are significantly in excess of the global average.
US East Coast as Sea Level Rise Hot Spot
Global Sea Surface Height Anomaly NOAA
(Over the past few months, a bulge of water more than 1.3 feet higher than the 1981 to 2013 global average has expanded off the US East Coast. This bulge is driven by a combination of Gulf Stream slowdown due to Greenland melt, overall sea level rise due to global warming, and due to an El Nino pattern that drives northeasterly winds off the US East Coast. This year, this extreme bulge is expected to bring on a significant increase in the number of flooding tides. Tides that could be compounded by the effects of strong nor’easters that tend to be generated during El Nino years. Image source: NOAA CPC.)
Unfortunately, as we have seen above, the impacts of gravity rebound and current changes related to glacial melt put the East Coast of the United States directly in the path of a significant rise in ocean water. Specifically, Greenland melt results in a slowing down of the Gulf Stream. And it is the northward draw of the Gulf Stream that pulls about 3 feet worth of sea level rise away from the US East Coast. Slow down the Gulf Stream by dumping cold water into the North Atlantic and you can get about a foot of sea level increase off the US East Coast. Stop it completely and all that 3 feet of water comes sloshing back. Add any global sea level rise due to ocean warming and glacial melt on top of that and you can see why the US East Coast can quickly get into trouble.
All in all, scientists expect sea level rise for the US East Coast to be nearly double the global average predicted for this Century. And what this means is that more and more coastal flooding is on the way.
Links:
The State Did Warn Us
Can’t Get Home? Blame Sea Level Rise
NOAA: El Nino May Accelerate Nuisance Flooding
Melting Ice in West Antarctica Could Raise Seas by 3 Meters
Historic Tides From Sea Level Rise and Supermoon Flood US East Coast
NOAA CPC
The Frankentides are Coming — US East Coast to See Season of Flooding From El Nino + Sea Level Rise This Winter
According to preliminary reports from NOAA, this Fall, Winter and Spring will likely bring an abnormal number of flooding tides to the US East Coast. These emperor and king tides are primarily driven by sea level rise — a knock on impact of human-forced warming. But during an El Nino year, as with this year, wind patterns along the East Coast tend to drive tides even higher. At El Nino times, lows tend to form off the US East Coast. These lows tend to generate a consistent northeasterly wind that pushes against the northward flow of the Gulf Stream. This action reduces the Gulf Stream’s ability to pull water away from our shores, and some of that water rebounds against the US East Coast.
During a normal year, this would somewhat increase the height of East Coast tides. But, due to Greenland melt pumping fresh water into the North Atlantic, the heat and salt driven circulation that generates the Gulf Stream is weakening (See Signs of Gulf Stream Weakening). So this year’s series of El Nino lows are forming over seas that are already rebounding against the US East Coast. Forming in seas that have already risen due to the melting of glaciers around the world. A NOAA press release from September notes that recent findings:
“…build upon two nuisance flooding reports issued last year led by NOAA scientists William Sweet and John Marra. The previously published reports show coastal communities in the United States have experienced a rapid growth in the frequency of nuisance tidal flooding, a 300 to 925 percent increase since the 1960s, and will likely cross inundation tipping points in the coming decades as tides become higher with sea level rise”
“We know that nuisance flooding is happening more often because of rising sea levels, but it is important to recognize that weather and ocean patterns brought on by El Niño can compound this trend,” said Sweet.”
image
(The 2015 El Nino — the year sea level rise came home to roost for the US East Coast. NOAA predicts a significant increase in the number of tidal flooding events all up and down the East Coast due to a combination of El Nino and impacts related to human-forced climate change. Image source: NOAA.)
It is due to this confluence of factors that we are likely to see some pretty extreme flooding tides anywhere from Miami to Maine. Flooding tides that, according to NOAA, are 33 to 125 percent more frequent than even the recently elevated trend. Tides that, as we have already seen (see below) are much higher than during any typical year — El Nino or no. Such impacts are likely to occur even without the influence of strong Nor’easters. But for the East Coast, Nor’easters and El Nino tend to go hand in hand.
So it’s shaping up to be a flooding season. One that wouldn’t have happened before. One brought on by the impacts of a human-forced warming. And one that is but a harbinger of more flooding to come.
Fall of 2015 Already Seeing Substantial Inundation Events
Over the past few weeks, a freak series of high tides inundated large sections of the U.S. East Coast. In Charleston, South Carolina, on October 27, a high tide peaked at 8.67 feet above mean low water. That’s the highest tide for Charleston since Hurricane Hugo roared ashore in 1989. But in this case, there was no category 4 hurricane. Just a ridiculous amount of water flooding in from the ocean. In Savannah, Georgia tides ran 10.43 feet above normal on the same day. Again, no storm, just a rising ocean flooding out roadways and inundating homes and neighborhoods. Only a couple of days later, on October 29th, large sections of Boston Harbor flooded under perfectly blue skies.
Tybee Flood
(Flooding, primarily due to sea level rise and an extreme high tide, inundates coastal lands near Tybee, Georgia on October 27th. It was the worst flooding since a category 2 hurricane hit the region in 1935. This year, there was no hurricane. Just sea level rise caused by human forced warming combined with the typical impacts of El Nino on East Coast tides. Image source: Blame Sea Level Rise.)
For stormless days, this level of tidal flooding is unprecedented. It’s a validation, just one month later, of NOAA predictions. If anything, these tides were even higher than expected. Tides influenced by sea level rise, glacial melt in Greenland, and by an El Nino driven shift in wind patterns. Had these tides coincided with a strong Nor’easter or a Hurricane, what we’d be looking at is a level of flooding that would almost certainly have exceeded the worst such events ever to strike the US East Coast. In effect, what we see is that sea level rise due to human forced warming of the globe is starting to have a greater and greater impact on these shores. An awful and early impact that will only worsen as time and human warming progress.
A Global Problem Set Off By Human Warming
Over the longer term, there are a lot of people in the path of this global trend of rising waters. In the US alone, more than 143 million people live in coastal communities. And the seas, due to human-forced warming are on the rise.
But its not just the US East Coast that’s in trouble. Practically everywhere, seas are rising. Global temperature increases of about 1 degrees Celsius above 1880s values are causing the oceans to thermally expand. In addition, glacial melt from mountain systems, Greenland and Antarctica is contributing ever-increasing volumes of water to the global ocean, forcing on the waters’ rise at ever-increasing rates. Currently, long term trends indicate a 3.3 millimeter per year average increase in the height of the world’s oceans (from 1993 to present). And as the world starts to close in on 2 degrees Celsius above 1880s averages, the pace of that rise is expected to ramp up and up.
Already, current sea level rise presents increasing problems to coastal regions across the globe. Much of the impacts we presently see are due to salt water invasion of low lying regions, nuisance flooding events, the amplification of storm driven tides, and increasing instances of what are now called king and emperor tides. Adding complexity to this global warming related problem is the fact that seas do not rise in a uniform manner. This lack of global uniformity of sea level rise results from gravity’s affects on the displacement of waters and from the influence of water outflows from glaciers on ocean currents. As a result, global sea level rise can generate hot spots where rates of rise are significantly in excess of the global average.
US East Coast as Sea Level Rise Hot Spot
Global Sea Surface Height Anomaly NOAA
(Over the past few months, a bulge of water more than 1.3 feet higher than the 1981 to 2013 global average has expanded off the US East Coast. This bulge is driven by a combination of Gulf Stream slowdown due to Greenland melt, overall sea level rise due to global warming, and due to an El Nino pattern that drives northeasterly winds off the US East Coast. This year, this extreme bulge is expected to bring on a significant increase in the number of flooding tides. Tides that could be compounded by the effects of strong nor’easters that tend to be generated during El Nino years. Image source: NOAA CPC.)
Unfortunately, as we have seen above, the impacts of gravity rebound and current changes related to glacial melt put the East Coast of the United States directly in the path of a significant rise in ocean water. Specifically, Greenland melt results in a slowing down of the Gulf Stream. And it is the northward draw of the Gulf Stream that pulls about 3 feet worth of sea level rise away from the US East Coast. Slow down the Gulf Stream by dumping cold water into the North Atlantic and you can get about a foot of sea level increase off the US East Coast. Stop it completely and all that 3 feet of water comes sloshing back. Add any global sea level rise due to ocean warming and glacial melt on top of that and you can see why the US East Coast can quickly get into trouble.
All in all, scientists expect sea level rise for the US East Coast to be nearly double the global average predicted for this Century. And what this means is that more and more coastal flooding is on the way.
Links:
The State Did Warn Us
Can’t Get Home? Blame Sea Level Rise
NOAA: El Nino May Accelerate Nuisance Flooding
Melting Ice in West Antarctica Could Raise Seas by 3 Meters
Historic Tides From Sea Level Rise and Supermoon Flood US East Coast
NOAA CPC
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Warming drove 12 of 24 extreme events in 2014
Half of Weather Disasters Linked to Climate Change
Human-caused changes in climate played a role in 14 of 28 storms, droughts, and other 2014 extreme weather events investigated by global scientists.
National Geographic, Nov. 6, 2015
From a deadly snowstorm in Nepal to a heat wave in Argentina that crashed power supplies, at least 14 extreme weather events last year bore the fingerprints of human-induced climate change, an international team of scientists reported.
Researchers examined 28 weather extremes on all seven continents to see if they were influenced by climate change or were just normal weather. Their conclusion: Half of them showed some role of climate change.
“We hope that this will help people see how climate change is affecting their day-to-day lives,” says lead editor Stephanie C. Herring of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Environmental Information.
This detective work hasn’t been possible until recently because science wasn’t up to the task, leaving a gap in society’s ability to adapt to climate change linked to greenhouse gases, which come from burning of fossil fuels and other human activities.
Although debate continues over accuracy and details, scientists now say their improved modeling tools in recent years have made it easier to tease out climate change effects from the seeming chaos of the weather.
The findings, by researchers from agencies and institutions in more than 20 countries, add to the list of extreme events in which climate change either played a large or small role or set up conditions that made them more likely. Record heat struck Europe, the Korean peninsula, northern China, and Australia – all with climate-change signals, according to the peer-reviewed report, which appears in a special issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
Droughts in Syria and East Africa, record rains in New Zealand and France, Nepal’s extreme Himalayan snowstorm, flooding in southeastern Canada, and an extremely active Hawaiian hurricane season also had direct or indirect climate links, the report finds. So did increased Antarctic sea ice and hotter Pacific and Atlantic sea-surface temperatures.
Scientists say their confidence has risen in the techniques used to link specific events to climate change, especially when it comes to heat waves. Extreme rainfall, on the other hand, is less likely to show a clear link to altered climate.
The same techniques can discount the link between climate change and extreme weather. The scientists detected no link in last year’s severe winter storms in the United Kingdom and North America or the unusually cold U.S. winter. And a look at Sao Paulo’s critical water shortage reveals a non-climate answer: Water planners hadn’t kept up with growing demands.
In Northern California, researchers could not link any single 2014 wildfire to climate change but they concluded that climate change has made bigger, more intense western fires far more likely, according to the new report as well as numerous other studies.
“They see quite clear evidence in this case,” says report co-editor Peter Stott of the U.K. Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services.
Such findings will help people get ready for climate change’s impacts, NOAA’s Herring says.
“As the field of climate attribution science grows, resource managers, the insurance industry, and many others can use the information more effectively for improved decision-making and to help communities better prepare for future extreme events,” she says.
Here’s a global rundown of what the report finds about human-induced climate change and 2014’s extreme weather.
North America
Climate change plus local land use worsened prairie flooding in southeastern Canada. Hawaii’s hurricanes were “substantially more likely” because of climate change. So were Northern California’s wildfires. Very cold winters such as one in the upper Midwest in 2014 have become from 20 to 100 times less likely than in the 1880s. Climate change wasn’t linked to the East Coast’s cold winter or extreme winter storms that raked North America.
Africa and the Middle East
Climate change worsened a drought in East Africa and in the Levant region of southern Syria. No drought link was found in the rest of the Middle East.
Antarctica
Antarctic sea ice reached a record of nearly 7.8 million square miles in 2014 because winds carried cold air offshore, boosting ice production on the water. Climate change will make that less likely, the report finds.
Asia
Climate change played a role in extreme heat in Korea and China and made several disasters more likely, including flooding in Jakarta, a Nepal snowstorm that killed 43, and extremely high sea-surface temperatures in the western tropical and northeast Pacific Ocean. No climate change signals were found in droughts in northeastern Asia, China, and Singapore or the western Pacific’s active tropical cyclone season.
Australia
Climate change made the heat waves of 2014 substantially more likely and severe, according to the report. Extremely high pressure south of Australia, causing frost, low-elevation snowfall and less rain, also was more likely, as was an extreme, five-day rainfall in New Zealand.
Europe
Compared with 1950, climate change tripled the chance of extreme rainfall in southern France’s Cévennes Mountains. Record heat over Europe, the northeast Pacific, and the northwest Atlantic also was more likely. However, no climate fingerprints were found in winter
Warming drove 12 of 24 extreme events in 2014
Half of Weather Disasters Linked to Climate Change
Human-caused changes in climate played a role in 14 of 28 storms, droughts, and other 2014 extreme weather events investigated by global scientists.
National Geographic, Nov. 6, 2015
From a deadly snowstorm in Nepal to a heat wave in Argentina that crashed power supplies, at least 14 extreme weather events last year bore the fingerprints of human-induced climate change, an international team of scientists reported.
Researchers examined 28 weather extremes on all seven continents to see if they were influenced by climate change or were just normal weather. Their conclusion: Half of them showed some role of climate change.
“We hope that this will help people see how climate change is affecting their day-to-day lives,” says lead editor Stephanie C. Herring of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Environmental Information.
This detective work hasn’t been possible until recently because science wasn’t up to the task, leaving a gap in society’s ability to adapt to climate change linked to greenhouse gases, which come from burning of fossil fuels and other human activities.
Although debate continues over accuracy and details, scientists now say their improved modeling tools in recent years have made it easier to tease out climate change effects from the seeming chaos of the weather.
The findings, by researchers from agencies and institutions in more than 20 countries, add to the list of extreme events in which climate change either played a large or small role or set up conditions that made them more likely. Record heat struck Europe, the Korean peninsula, northern China, and Australia – all with climate-change signals, according to the peer-reviewed report, which appears in a special issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
Droughts in Syria and East Africa, record rains in New Zealand and France, Nepal’s extreme Himalayan snowstorm, flooding in southeastern Canada, and an extremely active Hawaiian hurricane season also had direct or indirect climate links, the report finds. So did increased Antarctic sea ice and hotter Pacific and Atlantic sea-surface temperatures.
Scientists say their confidence has risen in the techniques used to link specific events to climate change, especially when it comes to heat waves. Extreme rainfall, on the other hand, is less likely to show a clear link to altered climate.
The same techniques can discount the link between climate change and extreme weather. The scientists detected no link in last year’s severe winter storms in the United Kingdom and North America or the unusually cold U.S. winter. And a look at Sao Paulo’s critical water shortage reveals a non-climate answer: Water planners hadn’t kept up with growing demands.
In Northern California, researchers could not link any single 2014 wildfire to climate change but they concluded that climate change has made bigger, more intense western fires far more likely, according to the new report as well as numerous other studies.
“They see quite clear evidence in this case,” says report co-editor Peter Stott of the U.K. Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services.
Such findings will help people get ready for climate change’s impacts, NOAA’s Herring says.
“As the field of climate attribution science grows, resource managers, the insurance industry, and many others can use the information more effectively for improved decision-making and to help communities better prepare for future extreme events,” she says.
Here’s a global rundown of what the report finds about human-induced climate change and 2014’s extreme weather.
North America
Climate change plus local land use worsened prairie flooding in southeastern Canada. Hawaii’s hurricanes were “substantially more likely” because of climate change. So were Northern California’s wildfires. Very cold winters such as one in the upper Midwest in 2014 have become from 20 to 100 times less likely than in the 1880s. Climate change wasn’t linked to the East Coast’s cold winter or extreme winter storms that raked North America.
Africa and the Middle East
Climate change worsened a drought in East Africa and in the Levant region of southern Syria. No drought link was found in the rest of the Middle East.
Antarctica
Antarctic sea ice reached a record of nearly 7.8 million square miles in 2014 because winds carried cold air offshore, boosting ice production on the water. Climate change will make that less likely, the report finds.
Asia
Climate change played a role in extreme heat in Korea and China and made several disasters more likely, including flooding in Jakarta, a Nepal snowstorm that killed 43, and extremely high sea-surface temperatures in the western tropical and northeast Pacific Ocean. No climate change signals were found in droughts in northeastern Asia, China, and Singapore or the western Pacific’s active tropical cyclone season.
Australia
Climate change made the heat waves of 2014 substantially more likely and severe, according to the report. Extremely high pressure south of Australia, causing frost, low-elevation snowfall and less rain, also was more likely, as was an extreme, five-day rainfall in New Zealand.
Europe
Compared with 1950, climate change tripled the chance of extreme rainfall in southern France’s Cévennes Mountains. Record heat over Europe, the northeast Pacific, and the northwest Atlantic also was more likely. However, no climate fingerprints were found in winter
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Re: Heat is Online
World's climate about to enter 'uncharted territory' as it passes 1C of warming
Global warming milestone is one of three climate records set to be broken in 2015, says UK Met Office
Ice flow floating on a lake in front of the Solheimajokull Glacier, Iceland
The world has passed the halfway mark to the 2C target, the agreed safe limit to avoid catastrophic global warming, say scientists. Photograph: Thibault Camus/Pool/Reuters
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/ ... of-warming" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Monday 9 November 2015 10.02 EST
Last modified on Monday 9 November 2015 10.56 EST
Climate change is set to pass the milestone of 1C of warming since pre-industrial times by the end of 2015, representing “uncharted territory” according to scientists at the UK’s Met Office.
2015 is also set to be the hottest on record, as the temperatures are so far beating past records “by a country mile”, they said. The World Meteorological Organization further announced on Monday that 2016 would be the first year in which the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is over 400ppm on average, due to the continued burning of fossil fuels.
The trio of landmarks comes just three weeks ahead of a crunch UN summit in Paris where world leaders including Barack Obama, Xi Jinping and David Cameron meet in Paris in a bid to reach a new deal on cutting emissions.
The Met Office’s data from January to September 2015 already shows global average temperatures have risen by 1C for the first time compared to pre-industrial times. The rise is due to the “unequivocal” influence of increasing carbon emissions combined with the El Niño climate phenomenon currently under way. The Met Office expects the full-year temperature for 2015 to remain above 1C. It was below 0.9C in 2014, marking a sharp rise in climate terms.
“This is the first time we’re set to reach the 1C marker and it’s clear that it is human influence driving our modern climate into uncharted territory,” said Stephen Belcher, director of the Met Office’s Hadley Centre, said. “We have passed the halfway mark to the 2C target.”
The announcement of symbolic milestones in the run up to the Paris summit will increase pressure on negotiators to deliver a strong deal to avert the catastrophic global warming expected beyond 2C of warming.
“Mother Nature has been kind to the French, but it should not be that way,” said Prof Myles Allen, at the University of Oxford, referring to the impetus the milestones should give to the conference hosted in Paris. “International negotiations on climate change should not be in hoc to what happens ... in the preceding nine months.” In any case, he said: “The last three months of 2015 would have to be really odd to change [projections of unprecedented warming for 2015] as we are beating the records by a country mile.”
Amber Rudd, the UK’s energy and climate change secretary, said: “Climate change is one of the most serious threats we face, not just to the environment, but to our economic prosperity, poverty eradication and global security. That’s why I want an agreement on a global deal in Paris. Pledges to reduce emissions made by countries [are] just the beginning. We need to ensure that as the costs of clean energy fall, countries can be more ambitious with their climate targets.”
Climate change is clear in the Central England Temperature record, which is the longest in the world and stretches back to 1772, said Ed Hawkins, a climate scientist at the University of Reading. “We can see the fingerprint of global warming in our own backyard. Central England has warmed 20% more than the global average [as land warms faster than oceans] and we expect that to continue.”
The impacts of climate change are analysed in other research presented on Monday by the UK’s Avoid project. It found that, compared to unchecked global warming, keeping the temperature rise below 2C would reduce heatwaves by 89%, flooding by 76%, cropland decline by 41% and water stress by 26%.
Which countries are doing the most to stop dangerous global warming?
Read more
Prof Joanna Haigh, at Imperial College London and part of the Avoid team, said the last major UN climate summit in Denmark in 2009 failed, making Paris crucial in preventing widespread damage: “Copenhagen was generally considered a complete disaster, so it is very important that countries get together at Paris.”
Belcher said 4C of warming would be much more harmful than simply doubling the impacts expected with 2C. He said the European heatwave of 2003, which led to 70,000 deaths, would be “a rather mild summer” in a 4C world.
The Met Office report also showed that the world’s “carbon budget” – the maximum CO2 that can be emitted over time to keep below 2C – was already two-thirds used up by the end of 2014. But only one-third of the sea-level rise expected from 2C of warming – 60cm by 2100 – has so far occurred, because of the time it takes for large ice sheets to melt.
Prof Andrew Shepherd, at the University of Leeds, said a recent Nasa study indicating that ice mass grew in Antarctica from 2003-2008 was contradicted by 57 other studies and had just a 5-10% chance of being a correct prediction.
Global warming milestone is one of three climate records set to be broken in 2015, says UK Met Office
Ice flow floating on a lake in front of the Solheimajokull Glacier, Iceland
The world has passed the halfway mark to the 2C target, the agreed safe limit to avoid catastrophic global warming, say scientists. Photograph: Thibault Camus/Pool/Reuters
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/ ... of-warming" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Monday 9 November 2015 10.02 EST
Last modified on Monday 9 November 2015 10.56 EST
Climate change is set to pass the milestone of 1C of warming since pre-industrial times by the end of 2015, representing “uncharted territory” according to scientists at the UK’s Met Office.
2015 is also set to be the hottest on record, as the temperatures are so far beating past records “by a country mile”, they said. The World Meteorological Organization further announced on Monday that 2016 would be the first year in which the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is over 400ppm on average, due to the continued burning of fossil fuels.
The trio of landmarks comes just three weeks ahead of a crunch UN summit in Paris where world leaders including Barack Obama, Xi Jinping and David Cameron meet in Paris in a bid to reach a new deal on cutting emissions.
The Met Office’s data from January to September 2015 already shows global average temperatures have risen by 1C for the first time compared to pre-industrial times. The rise is due to the “unequivocal” influence of increasing carbon emissions combined with the El Niño climate phenomenon currently under way. The Met Office expects the full-year temperature for 2015 to remain above 1C. It was below 0.9C in 2014, marking a sharp rise in climate terms.
“This is the first time we’re set to reach the 1C marker and it’s clear that it is human influence driving our modern climate into uncharted territory,” said Stephen Belcher, director of the Met Office’s Hadley Centre, said. “We have passed the halfway mark to the 2C target.”
The announcement of symbolic milestones in the run up to the Paris summit will increase pressure on negotiators to deliver a strong deal to avert the catastrophic global warming expected beyond 2C of warming.
“Mother Nature has been kind to the French, but it should not be that way,” said Prof Myles Allen, at the University of Oxford, referring to the impetus the milestones should give to the conference hosted in Paris. “International negotiations on climate change should not be in hoc to what happens ... in the preceding nine months.” In any case, he said: “The last three months of 2015 would have to be really odd to change [projections of unprecedented warming for 2015] as we are beating the records by a country mile.”
Amber Rudd, the UK’s energy and climate change secretary, said: “Climate change is one of the most serious threats we face, not just to the environment, but to our economic prosperity, poverty eradication and global security. That’s why I want an agreement on a global deal in Paris. Pledges to reduce emissions made by countries [are] just the beginning. We need to ensure that as the costs of clean energy fall, countries can be more ambitious with their climate targets.”
Climate change is clear in the Central England Temperature record, which is the longest in the world and stretches back to 1772, said Ed Hawkins, a climate scientist at the University of Reading. “We can see the fingerprint of global warming in our own backyard. Central England has warmed 20% more than the global average [as land warms faster than oceans] and we expect that to continue.”
The impacts of climate change are analysed in other research presented on Monday by the UK’s Avoid project. It found that, compared to unchecked global warming, keeping the temperature rise below 2C would reduce heatwaves by 89%, flooding by 76%, cropland decline by 41% and water stress by 26%.
Which countries are doing the most to stop dangerous global warming?
Read more
Prof Joanna Haigh, at Imperial College London and part of the Avoid team, said the last major UN climate summit in Denmark in 2009 failed, making Paris crucial in preventing widespread damage: “Copenhagen was generally considered a complete disaster, so it is very important that countries get together at Paris.”
Belcher said 4C of warming would be much more harmful than simply doubling the impacts expected with 2C. He said the European heatwave of 2003, which led to 70,000 deaths, would be “a rather mild summer” in a 4C world.
The Met Office report also showed that the world’s “carbon budget” – the maximum CO2 that can be emitted over time to keep below 2C – was already two-thirds used up by the end of 2014. But only one-third of the sea-level rise expected from 2C of warming – 60cm by 2100 – has so far occurred, because of the time it takes for large ice sheets to melt.
Prof Andrew Shepherd, at the University of Leeds, said a recent Nasa study indicating that ice mass grew in Antarctica from 2003-2008 was contradicted by 57 other studies and had just a 5-10% chance of being a correct prediction.
