Demographic timeline

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Michelle
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Demographic timeline

Post by Michelle »

This is only my second post and is a repeat of part of what I wrote in my first post. I believe it deserves its own thread.

I believe in learning by study and faith. I believe that many of changes that will take place are visible to all who seek truth. The Family: A Proclamation to the World says the disintigration of the family will lead the calamities foretold by ancient and modern prophets. Those seeds have been sown and cannot be changed in the short term.

2007-2008 Oldest of boomers reach early retirement; demographically predicted economic downturn; economically predicted reduction of birth rates.

2008-2017 birth rates continue to drop; August 2016 CDC begins to release fertility rates quartly instead of annually because of steep declines since 2007.

2024 "Generation Not Born" (babies not born in 2008) would be entering employment (unskilled labor-after school jobs). They cannot, they were not born.

2026 oldest of boomer generation hits early retirement

2028 "Generation Not Born" would be entering unskilled labor-post high school They cannot, they were not born.

2030 "Generation Not Born" would be skilled labor-post undergraduate college. They cannot, they were not born.

2031 Oldest of baby boomers hits full life expectancy of 85 years.

Each of these dates is a economic tremor leading to an economic earthquake. There will be no outlasting these events. You can't stockpile enough things, so just focus on what the prophets have said about getting out of debt, a year supply of food and a bit of savings. You must have skills. Interestingly the scriptures (yes, for real! lol) have a lot of answers about self sufficiency. But all the reading in the world can't replace real world practice.

This is the tip of the iceburg. These patterns are worldwide. Some countries are farther "ahead" than the US. Some are farther "behind." There is no quick fix for children not born, we can't create full grown adults. Technology can help mitigate some of the effects. (I use the word "help" very loosely.) But even tech will end up being limited by unavailable manpower.

Sources for a quick primer on demographics and how birth rates are changing the world:

Elder Cook: BYU Devotional February 7, 2017 "A Banquet of Consequences: The Cumulative Result of All Choices"

https://www.lds.org/prophets-and-apostl ... s?lang=eng

Demographic Winter:

http://www.byutv.org/watch/59b6b917-984 ... ter-part-1

Demographic Bomb: (can be watched free with ads on Amazon.com)

https://www.amazon.com/Demographic-Bomb ... aphic+bomb

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nightlight
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Re: Demographic timeline

Post by nightlight »

IMO the danger we face is not from people not having kids and those kids not sustaining the economy. The cause of people putting off marriage and having a children and starting a family is sin, it's the strange paths they stumble down that puts family out of the mind. We will be judged in the same manner as the communities in The Book of Mormon are judged. As a people full of sin we will be judged in our sins, our country faces God's judgment now, not our children's children because there won't be enough worker bees. from a purely economic standpoint your theory makes sense but you have to add in the God Factor and the stipulations for living on this American continent that are outlined in the Book of Mormon

Michelle
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Re: Demographic timeline

Post by Michelle »

I agree that sin is at the root of people not having children. I just think it is interesting to see how things are lining up between this sin and the results described for the world in the last days. No dreams or visions, just cold hard facts to back up prophecy from real prophets.

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nightlight
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Re: Demographic timeline

Post by nightlight »

I get what you are saying ,I don't think that particular situation will have the time to unfold. If God withheld his judgment I guess that eventually our economy could collapse for that reason, I just don't think he will.

Michelle
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Re: Demographic timeline

Post by Michelle »

That I guess is where we differ. I think there is plenty of time for judgements before Christ's return.

I don't believe He is holding back judgement in this timeline. This isn't a manufactured event to punish us, this is a consequence directly related to disobedience. This economic earthquake I am speaking of is not another Great Depression. This is is life changing for everybody.

Within the last decade the UN suggested that human population on the planet would peak in 2050. Then they seemed to indicate it might be earlier. Then the reports got fuzzy and they went back to preaching overpopulation. The numbers in their reports seemed to indicate that Africa would continue to have high fertility rates, in spite of the fact that they would continue to increase educational opportunties for women, increase access to birth conrol, and become more industrialized/increase in technological capabilities. This doesn't happen historically by the way. All of these markers and more indicate a decisive move towards reduced birth rates.

I am not necessarily one who believes Christ is returning in 2033, but I do believe these events are part of judgements spoken of in revelations concerning the last days. I think it very possible that 2030-2033 is when the population of the earth peaks: when the largest economic earthquake occurs. I can't stress enough the effects of peak population.

Throughout history civilizations have grown, progressed, decayed and disappeared. When they go, technologies and they lifestyles they supported go with them. People return to basic human survival.

I believe those who live in Zion (whether one location or many stakes) will fare better than the rest because we are commanded to get as much education as possible. We will still have our engineers and farmers. But that doesn't mean we have everything we have now, we just don't fall as hard.

When all who flee to Zion are those who will not take up swords against their neighbors. All who don't flee to Zion are those who will take up swords against their neighbors. (D&C 45: 68)

This is the world I am speaking of. There are many judgements to come, some sooner, some later, but I don't think Christ comes as soon as many believe. It is written people will say he delays his coming. Plenty left to happen. This is just one slice of judgements that are suppose to come.

For those seeking to learn by study and faith, it is simply meant to fill in some of the study blanks, not replace faith.

brianj
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Location: Vineyard, Utah

Re: Demographic timeline

Post by brianj »

Since Michelle posted the above in two threads I'll post my response in both threads.

I'm going to disagree on the significance of the above dates. The 2008 beginning of the current recession (which is not still officially a recession only because of serious manipulation of the numbers) was the result of things other than some of the baby boom generation taking early retirement.
I don't believe retirement will be an issue at all. The overwhelming majority of that generation is totally unprepared financially for retirement. Some of them will retire as soon as they are old enough to collect social security, others will wait until they can get a maximum social security check. But most of those who retire will discover, to their great disappointment, that even with social security they don't have enough money to maintain their lifestyle so they will go back to work.

I have also read the claims by Robert Kiyosaki and others that a massive depression will occur when enough baby boomers retire because there won't be enough people to fill jobs, what you referred to above as when children never born should be entering the workforce. But, as long as the United States is a country that people around the world desire to live in, we will be able to accept immigrants to fill those jobs.

I firmly believe that we have much more to fear from the economic house of cards collapsing or from our nation losing the blessings that accompany a righteous population than we do from shifting demographics.

Michelle
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Re: Demographic timeline

Post by Michelle »

Following brianj's example, answering in both posts:

I agree that sin is the cause of it all, less babies are a symptom. The reason the economic downturn was heavily contributed to by the age of the baby boomers is because retirement coincides with downsizing. They tried to sell family homes for small homes and flooded a bubble market. Retirement means less spent on kids, cars, everything really. I still believe that was the cause of the downturn. Other political issues (and there are plenty) just exacerbated the problem.

Michelle
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Posts: 1795

Re: Demographic timeline

Post by Michelle »

http://www.businessinsider.com/japan-fe ... ev-test334

This article was shared on another website and it is an excellent summary of the demographic effects of not having enough children.

Figure 2 is priceless!

It also confirms that technology is going to be a two edged sword, it will help mitigate the effects of not having enough people to do the work we want done, but also it will require working people to continue pushing the boundaries of that technology.

gardener4life
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Re: Demographic timeline

Post by gardener4life »

I agree that people shouldn't withhold having kids and family.

But some of us have been there and tried that. But people just won't cooperate. I've dated several people that very easily could have chosen to stuck it out. Then Satan comes along and they get tempted by greener grass on the other side of the fence and throw it all away for no reason other than they want life to not be hard. It's a mortal probation though, there will always be a struggle.

JuneBug12000
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Re: Demographic timeline

Post by JuneBug12000 »

This is still happening. From a recent KSL article.

https://www.ksl.com/article/50644355/id ... ost-states
BOISE, Idaho — Thirty-five states have fewer children than they did five years ago, a situation caused by declining birth rates nationwide, but also by young families migrating across state borders in search of cheaper housing.

Even in the 15 states that gained children, all but North Dakota experienced greater growth in the adult population, meaning children now make up a lower percentage of residents.

In states where the number of children has declined, school officials are facing the possibility of teacher layoffs or even school closures when pandemic aid expires next year. A decline in school enrollment could provide short-term cost savings and might be a benefit to children if there are more resources to go around, but it bodes poorly for future state workforces.

In states where the drop in the number of children is part of a broader population decline, there will be additional fiscal, economic and political ramifications, such as diminished representation in Congress.
In Idaho and North Dakota, annual school enrollment has increased over the past five years, except for temporary drops early in the pandemic. But Idaho is bracing for a decline starting in 2025, when children from a historic 2007 baby boom in the state start turning 18.

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Ymarsakar
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Re: Demographic timeline

Post by Ymarsakar »

God is withdrawing the right of co creation to the species. The abuses have come to light and the verdict is not good for the species. This might be called collective punishment although the more righteous will not be impaired.

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