Affording a Family in the Last Days

[Matchmaker]

So when someone says they need to be prepared I wonder if their definition of prepared is way beyond the scope of the lords definition... Just saying, food for thought....

I used to stress because my small house size doesn't allow for a year supply. It simply doesn't. I felt like we weren't being obedient enough. I felt stuck because moving would mean I would need to work full time in spite of personal revelation that I needed to be home with my kids. Lose lose. And I think that's what this thread is about. People are feeling set up to fail. I get it.
So I read and prayed and realized exactly what you said. I needed to change my definition of prepared. I can comfortably fit 6 mo of food for my 6 family members in my home. I also garden and keep chickens to be prepared.
I think we get fixated on a picture of how we think a commandment is supposed to look and it sets us back.

I agree with your comment about "we get fixated on how we think a commandment is supposed to look." I also agree with those who say, "Let's do the best we can with the circumstances and resources we have and trust the Lord with the rest." It's time to get creative and show what we are made out of. One example I learned from something I read: Before I got married and bought a house, I lived in a tiny 400 sq ft apartment. I bought several cases of food and used one stack for an end table in my tiny livingroom. You can put nice fabric over it. Another one went into my bedroom for a similar purpose. I lined the bottom of my bedroom closet with cases of food too. I put cases of bottled water behind my couch. I bought a gallon sized container of powdered organic meals. You could add a scoop or two of the powder to water or juice and have a balanced meal in a minute. The gallon would feed me for 14 days in an emergency.

If a person only has room for a couple of cases of energy bars under their bed, in a time of an emergency they can probably trade some of the energy bars in their ward for soup or canned meat. I have too much soup and canned meat, and I would love a few energy bars.

[BackBlast]

BackBlast,

Thank you for your inspirational story. I raised 6 kids. I am watching the struggles of my kids to raise their families, and I am glad that I lived in the generation that I did, because I am not sure how well, I would have dealt with all of the problems including the struggle to provide an adequate income that they have today.

Nice job

I have always encouraged my wife to look for friends among the older generation because they understand a lot better some of our struggles than almost anyone near our age. That and there's something mellowing and special that comes with age.

I have often said that it is common for the elder generation to say how tough it was in their day, but I am afraid that the younger generation has many more difficulties providing for the needs of their kids than we did. I'm sure that strengthens your testimony, and maybe you guys having that stronger, surer testimony is what is needed to face that which is coming.

Everyone has the set of trials that is most likely to take them from where they are and elevate them to a state where they can accept Christ and be saved. I wouldn't get too caught up in eras or times or sets of trials. Sure, mine has difficulties, but I'm a stubborn person

This is not just an era of great darkness and trial, it is an era of great LIGHT. I thought I was just muddling through life, but more recently I am rather astounded at the blessings being poured out upon me and mine. I wouldn't trade my path for anyone else's.

[brianj]

What I didn't count on was health difficulties. My wife, to her frustration, has been unable to care for our children like she would like. Repeated pregnancies have left her with poor overall health. This has lead to hired help in the form of nannies and cleaners. I have had to do a lot of that stuff myself, but there are limits to how much time off I can reasonably take before I get the evil eye from my employer. I am the sole income for my family. I make good money for a single income. Despite that, we haven't had a real couch in oh, 4 or 5 years now. I have never once purchased a TV. We have always purchased old used cars from reliable lines. I didn't have a cell phone until about 5 years ago because of the expense. I have only most recently accepted assistance of any kind, just a bit to help after our former landlord exercised their non-renewal clause (kicking us out). I was instructed by the Lord to accept it and ask for it, but to also view it like a loan rather than a gift (this is not universal advice, what was given to me). Our children don't think of us as poor, they are happy.

Beyond the financial difficulties there are the... reactions from others. Everyone is universally happy to see you get one child, even two. After that the receptions are less happy. When you pass 5 they start to get quite negative and pointed. Even in the Church. Snide comments like, you know what causes that right? Sometimes good natured but they are still somewhat unkind. This is especially rough on women folk who really yearn for acceptance and who's lives often revolve around family choices.

Through it all, we have had sufficient for our needs. First time we had to hire a nanny, I got a raise to support it nearly simultaneously. Currently I'm sitting on 20k of medical expense related debt. Recently I just got a 11% raise, and I'm seeing the potential for another 10-15% raise possible just around the corner. Which should hopefully be enough clear it up within the year, with some more tightening of the belt. I have had blessing after blessing to see me through. It's not an easy life style, but I testify that the blessings are ready and waiting for those who embark upon it. I believe that the Lord truly cherishes those willing to bring children into this world.

Thank you for sharing. As far as the reactions from others, forget them. It's not their business.

I am pleased that you have had sufficient for your needs, but what about your wife's physical needs? There is a lot of medical research to support waiting two years between birth and the next pregnancy for the mother's health. If you decide to have baby number nine I think it's a great thing, but I would advise you both to spend a lot of time praying about the timing of the next pregnancy.

And thank you for the inspiration. I am enduring a divorce right now, and in awe as I watch what happens when someone breaks their temple covenants. I hope that I will be richly blessed with a loving AND faithful wife sometime in the near future, and I really want to have another child or two - even though I won't become single until one month after my 49th birthday. It's going to take a lot of blessings for me to be able to get through this divorce in a situation that will allow me to provide for another family (she's trying to get a court order for so much child support I would need church assistance to get by) and since I have generally observed very little age difference in spouses within the church it will take more blessings for me to find someone young enough to have another child and willing to consider an old guy like me.
But if that's what the Lord has planned for me, it will happen!

[BackBlast]

Thank you for sharing. As far as the reactions from others, forget them. It's not their business.

I am pleased that you have had sufficient for your needs, but what about your wife's physical needs? There is a lot of medical research to support waiting two years between birth and the next pregnancy for the mother's health. If you decide to have baby number nine I think it's a great thing, but I would advise you both to spend a lot of time praying about the timing of the next pregnancy.

Applying advice #1 to advice #2 ;)

And thank you for the inspiration. I am enduring a divorce right now, and in awe as I watch what happens when someone breaks their temple covenants. I hope that I will be richly blessed with a loving AND faithful wife sometime in the near future, and I really want to have another child or two - even though I won't become single until one month after my 49th birthday. It's going to take a lot of blessings for me to be able to get through this divorce in a situation that will allow me to provide for another family (she's trying to get a court order for so much child support I would need church assistance to get by) and since I have generally observed very little age difference in spouses within the church it will take more blessings for me to find someone young enough to have another child and willing to consider an old guy like me.
But if that's what the Lord has planned for me, it will happen!

There are cultural norms against large age differences, yes. Personally, I've seen many mismatched age marriages work out wonderfully. I don't see any fundamental issues with it. Though marriage, generally, is not an easy thing to do well. When done well there isn't anything in life that is sweeter save a personal relationship with God. I hope you can find what you are looking and hoping for.

[Older/wiser?]

Seems Satan is using every tactic in the book to attack the family. Student debt, the idea that the world is overpopulated and the financial costs of raising a family are hindering new families here in Canada. This isn't a unique problem to just Canada as it is happening all over the world now.

This current generation has less money than their parents generation which is making it harder to start a family. A house is 6 times more expensive than the last generation. The stress of being able to afford a family is a reality for many as the cost of living has escalated to a point that as the article explains, having a family is now considered a luxury many can't afford. Families have now become a thing for the rich only.

The church says we can't afford not to have a family but balancing staying out of debt and staying out of poverty is the new reality at least in Canada. We should not have to rely on welfare, be it from the state or the church, to afford a family. The standard of living keeps eroding with no positive change on the horizon.

I have a large family. 7 here, and one on the way. They are all young (oldest is 11). It is not only financially taxing but emotionally and physically taxing.

I have always made this a priority. I worked my way through school. I picked a career that would likely support me comfortably. I looked for a girl that really valued having children.

What I didn't count on was health difficulties. My wife, to her frustration, has been unable to care for our children like she would like. Repeated pregnancies have left her with poor overall health. This has lead to hired help in the form of nannies and cleaners. I have had to do a lot of that stuff myself, but there are limits to how much time off I can reasonably take before I get the evil eye from my employer. I am the sole income for my family. I make good money for a single income. Despite that, we haven't had a real couch in oh, 4 or 5 years now. I have never once purchased a TV. We have always purchased old used cars from reliable lines. I didn't have a cell phone until about 5 years ago because of the expense. I have only most recently accepted assistance of any kind, just a bit to help after our former landlord exercised their non-renewal clause (kicking us out). I was instructed by the Lord to accept it and ask for it, but to also view it like a loan rather than a gift (this is not universal advice, what was given to me). Our children don't think of us as poor, they are happy.

Beyond the financial difficulties there are the... reactions from others. Everyone is universally happy to see you get one child, even two. After that the receptions are less happy. When you pass 5 they start to get quite negative and pointed. Even in the Church. Snide comments like, you know what causes that right? Sometimes good natured but they are still somewhat unkind. This is especially rough on women folk who really yearn for acceptance and who's lives often revolve around family choices.

Through it all, we have had sufficient for our needs. First time we had to hire a nanny, I got a raise to support it nearly simultaneously. Currently I'm sitting on 20k of medical expense related debt. Recently I just got a 11% raise, and I'm seeing the potential for another 10-15% raise possible just around the corner. Which should hopefully be enough clear it up within the year, with some more tightening of the belt. I have had blessing after blessing to see me through. It's not an easy life style, but I testify that the blessings are ready and waiting for those who embark upon it. I believe that the Lord truly cherishes those willing to bring children into this world.

Thank you for sharing Backblast Sunain and also Yahzee, I am from an older generation, I look around and see people losing faith that shouldn't your sacrifices to do the right thing, raise children in faith give me great hope for the future. I remember our struggles, and they were and are many, it is interesting to see that struggles in some tend to rend the heart and gratitude seems to be the result. That is what I commend you for your expression of gratitude for the blessings you do have. We all need reminders , the Lord never fails us, His answers can come in different packages, but they come.

[brianj]

Thank you for sharing. As far as the reactions from others, forget them. It's not their business.

I am pleased that you have had sufficient for your needs, but what about your wife's physical needs? There is a lot of medical research to support waiting two years between birth and the next pregnancy for the mother's health. If you decide to have baby number nine I think it's a great thing, but I would advise you both to spend a lot of time praying about the timing of the next pregnancy.

Applying advice #1 to advice #2 ;)

And thank you for the inspiration. I am enduring a divorce right now, and in awe as I watch what happens when someone breaks their temple covenants. I hope that I will be richly blessed with a loving AND faithful wife sometime in the near future, and I really want to have another child or two - even though I won't become single until one month after my 49th birthday. It's going to take a lot of blessings for me to be able to get through this divorce in a situation that will allow me to provide for another family (she's trying to get a court order for so much child support I would need church assistance to get by) and since I have generally observed very little age difference in spouses within the church it will take more blessings for me to find someone young enough to have another child and willing to consider an old guy like me.
But if that's what the Lord has planned for me, it will happen!

There are cultural norms against large age differences, yes. Personally, I've seen many mismatched age marriages work out wonderfully. I don't see any fundamental issues with it. Though marriage, generally, is not an easy thing to do well. When done well there isn't anything in life that is sweeter save a personal relationship with God. I hope you can find what you are looking and hoping for.

If the thank button still existed I would have clicked it. In the absence of the thank button I'll post a message to say:
Thank you.

[JohnnyL]

"In the Land of the Free, Sustainable Living is Becoming a Crime

In order for the State to make people believe that “democratic” centralized government is necessary for a functioning society, it must work to keep the people from gaining too much freedom and self-sufficiency. But technology and information sharing are allowing people, like never before, to break from entrenched power interests that control our money, our economy, our energy, our food, our property – and thus our lives. For decades the State has partnered with corporate giants – such as the fossil fuel and biotech industries – to maintain the façade of freedom and choice, all the while fleecing the masses. Meanwhile, government employs overt means such as “ordinances” to maintain dependence and thwart the sustainable lifestyle.

As we reported in Nov. 2016, towns and cities across the U.S. are banning tiny homes or severely limiting one of the main reasons for their existence – self-sufficiency. Where tiny homes are allowed, they often must be affixed to the ground in a government-approved fashion and are required to connect to the utility grid.

So, even if someone can power their tiny home with solar energy, they must be ‘connected’ and pay the utility company and government taxes. The State and its corporate partners certainly see the slippery slope to freedom that the masses can gain by harnessing free, clean energy from their rooftop and water from the sky.

Several U.S. states either prohibit rainwater collection or have very strict laws regarding such. While there is a legitimate concern in arid regions about preserving natural streams, does residential rainwater collection (i.e. a 1,000 gallon cistern) actually have any effect on stream water levels? Governments immediately jump to restricting the public’s ability to live self-sufficiently, without providing actual data to justify their actions.

Vegetable gardening is not even immune from State interference. In Miami Shores, a couple was forced to destroy their front yard vegetable garden after government threatened them with a fine of $50 each day it remained.

“When our garden was in full production, we had no need to shop for produce. At least 80 percent of our meals were harvested fresh from our garden,” said Hermine Ricketts. “This law crushes our freedom to grow our own healthy food. No one should have to expend time and energy dealing with such nonsense.”

In any reality but the American police state, a front yard vegetable/herb garden would draw respect and admiration. In the corporatocracy, though, buying food produced in centralized factories is preferred. ‘Death by a thousand cuts’ could sum up the strategy of the State to derail the movement toward freedom and self-sufficiency. Everything essential to living is subject to rules and regulations which seems to have a natural tendency toward ever greater restriction."
http://thefreethoughtproject.com/sustai ... land-free/

[JohnnyL]

https://www.wired.com/2015/04/dmca-owne ... ohn-deere/

"It’s official: John Deere and General Motors want to eviscerate the notion of ownership. Sure, we pay for their vehicles. But we don’t own them. Not according to their corporate lawyers, anyway. In a particularly spectacular display of corporate delusion, John Deere—the world’s largest agricultural machinery maker —told the Copyright Office that farmers don’t own their tractors. Because computer code snakes through the DNA of modern tractors, farmers receive “an implied license for the life of the vehicle to operate the vehicle.” It’s John Deere’s tractor, folks. You’re just driving it.

Over the last two decades, manufacturers have used the DMCA to argue that consumers do not own the software underpinning the products they buy—things like smartphones, computers, coffeemakers, cars, and, yes, even tractors. So, Old MacDonald has a tractor, but he owns a massive barn ornament, because the manufacturer holds the rights to the programming that makes it run.

In recent years, some companies have even leveraged the DMCA to stop owners from modifying the programming on those products. This means you can’t strip DRM off smart kitty litter boxes, install custom software on your iPad, or alter the calibration on a tractor’s engine. Not without potentially running afoul of the DMCA.

What does any of that have to do with copyright? Owners, tinkerers, and homebrew “hackers” must copy programming so they can modify it. Product makers don’t like people messing with their stuff, so some manufacturers place digital locks over software. Breaking the lock, making the copy, and changing something could be construed as a violation of copyright law.

And that’s how manufacturers turn tinkerers into “pirates”—even if said “pirates” aren’t circulating illegal copies of anything. Makes sense, right? Yeah, not to me either.

It makes sense to John Deere: The company argues that allowing people to alter the software—even for the purpose of repair—would “make it possible for pirates, third-party developers, and less innovative competitors to free-ride off the creativity, unique expression and ingenuity of vehicle software.” The pièce de résistance in John Deere’s argument: permitting owners to root around in a tractor’s programming might lead to pirating music through a vehicle’s entertainment system. Because copyright-marauding farmers are very busy and need to multitask by simultaneously copying Taylor Swift’s 1989 and harvesting corn? (I’m guessing, because John Deere’s lawyers never explained why anyone would pirate music on a tractor, only that it could happen.) "

[Z2100]

Communal living is actually easier and cheaper in so many ways. We did it--had a big living room we'd take turns cleaning, and since it's communal, you naturally put your stuff up. One washing machine for three families. Kitchen appliances, cars, power tools, bigger TV's, whatever, shared by all.

We'll be doing that when we're in the Rockies

[brianj]

https://www.wired.com/2015/04/dmca-owne ... ohn-deere/

"It’s official: John Deere and General Motors want to eviscerate the notion of ownership. Sure, we pay for their vehicles. But we don’t own them. Not according to their corporate lawyers, anyway. In a particularly spectacular display of corporate delusion, John Deere—the world’s largest agricultural machinery maker —told the Copyright Office that farmers don’t own their tractors. Because computer code snakes through the DNA of modern tractors, farmers receive “an implied license for the life of the vehicle to operate the vehicle.” It’s John Deere’s tractor, folks. You’re just driving it.

You are just learning about this now? Over 30 years ago when IBM contracted with Microsoft to provide software for their PC Jr, Microsoft didn't sell the software but licensed its use. That was the beginning and it's only gotten worse since then.

I remember several years back HP tried fighting aftermarket ink and toner manufacturers to stop them from selling cartridges for HP printers because HP redesigned their printers to incorporate chips in the cartridges and they claimed the DCMA prevents those other manufacturers from making or selling cartridges for HP printers.

And let's not forget that these days people are patenting ideas. Nearly 20 years ago Amazon patented the idea of using cookies to allow people to stay logged in and buy items with a single click, then sued companies who had implemented similar features in their websites. Today corporations exist that do nothing but buy patents on ideas, wait until a company that might be infringing that patent becomes profitable enough to sue, then sue them for the alleged infringement and demand huge royalties. They are parasites that suck the life blood out of new businesses and new product ideas.

We live in a very wicked society.

[Sunain]

Full-blown housing bubble’: Economist alarmed by view of never-ending price gains

More than half of the country believes home prices will never fall, according to a new poll from CIBC.

Despite lofty valuations in the Toronto and Vancouver housing markets, 54 per cent of respondents to the CIBC poll say housing prices will rise indefinitely, while only 40 per cent think prices will decline over the course of the next five years.

David Madani, senior Canadian economist at Capital Economics, thinks the unbridled optimism is just one more sign the Toronto housing market is in bubble territory.

“The fact that the majority of Canadians still think home prices can continue to shoot up is sort of testament to the fact we’re in a full-blown housing bubble,” he said in an interview with BNN.

According to the poll, those high prices are keeping homeowners on the sidelines, with 62 per cent of respondents saying they’re reluctant to sell their home, lest they become buyers again.

Home prices in Toronto are up more than 30 per cent over the course of the last year, and prices in Vancouver have risen more than 14 per cent.

Those who are looking to sell are largely of the baby boomer cohort, with more than two-thirds of respondents older than 55 saying they plan to downsize to a smaller home or condo. CIBC says boomers are motivated to sell not just due to the ease of maintaining a smaller home, but also as a boost to their retirement savings.
Housing regulation now needed: David Rosenberg reverses position

David Rosenberg, chief economist, Gluskin Sheff joins BNN to explain why the new data on the housing market has forced him to change his position on the need for government intervention in Canada's hot housing markets.

What’s less clear is who they’re going to sell their home to: 52 per cent of the millennial generation either don’t believe they’ll ever own a home, or are unsure if home ownership is in their future, according to the CIBC poll.

Of those in the younger generation who are already in the housing market, more than four of every five plan to sell, with 63 per cent complaining the mortgage and housing costs are making them cash-poor.

There's Only One Thing Holding Up Canada's Economy Right Now
Federal and provincial governments have taken action to slow down the overheated housing markets around Toronto and Vancouver, but they may want to be careful not to overdo it.

That’s because the housing boom was pretty much the only thing holding up Canada’s economy in February.

The latest data from Statistics Canada shows the economy didn’t grow at all that month, with GDP coming in flat. That’s no surprise to economists, who had been expecting a bit of a slowdown after several months of expectations-beating growth. Many wrote in their client notes Friday that the economy is just “taking a breather.”

But virtually all of the strength in February’s numbers comes from industries related to the housing boom — construction, finance and insurance, and real estate. Had it not been for strength in those areas, the economy would have shrunk in February.



“Housing starts have had a remarkable recent run,” CIBC economist Nick Exarhos wrote in a client note. “Residential investment is now poised to be a modest lift to GDP this year, from a drag we had forecast earlier on.”

Many economists have raised the alarm about Canada’s increasing dependence on housing for its economic growth. Global banking consultancy Macquarie found last fall found that Canada’s reliance on real estate investment hit a record high last year — the same thing that happened in the U.S. shortly before its housing bubble burst.

Meanwhile, overall business investment has been in the dumps since the oil price collapse began in 2014 — a key reason why the Bank of Canada remains worried about Canada's economic growth going forward. Business investment is the key driver of job growth.

A report last year from the International Institute for Sustainable Development urged Canada to reduce its reliance on both housing and oil, arguing the industries have put the economy on a “roller coaster.”

The oil and gas sector has bounced back from its lows over the past year, with output up 6.4 per cent over the past year. But this sector was a drag on growth in February, declining 0.2 per cent.

David Madani of Capital Economics noted that the Bank of Canada is concerned about the lack of balance in the country’s economic growth.

“Until export-led growth backed up by business investment take over as the main growth drivers, policymakers will likely keep interest rates low,” he wrote Friday.

Still, Canada’s economy is likely to put in a strong showing for the first quarter of 2017 as a whole — thanks to very rapid growth at the end of last year and the start of this year.

“Even if March also comes in flat, growth in Q1 will register a hot 4-per-cent pace,” Exarhos wrote.

Basically Canada is in a major housing bubble that will make the USA's 2008 one look like a walk in the park. Going to be very rough here in the near future.

[JohnnyL]

https://www.wired.com/2015/04/dmca-owne ... ohn-deere/

"It’s official: John Deere and General Motors want to eviscerate the notion of ownership. Sure, we pay for their vehicles. But we don’t own them. Not according to their corporate lawyers, anyway. In a particularly spectacular display of corporate delusion, John Deere—the world’s largest agricultural machinery maker —told the Copyright Office that farmers don’t own their tractors. Because computer code snakes through the DNA of modern tractors, farmers receive “an implied license for the life of the vehicle to operate the vehicle.” It’s John Deere’s tractor, folks. You’re just driving it.

You are just learning about this now? Over 30 years ago when IBM contracted with Microsoft to provide software for their PC Jr, Microsoft didn't sell the software but licensed its use. That was the beginning and it's only gotten worse since then.

I remember several years back HP tried fighting aftermarket ink and toner manufacturers to stop them from selling cartridges for HP printers because HP redesigned their printers to incorporate chips in the cartridges and they claimed the DCMA prevents those other manufacturers from making or selling cartridges for HP printers.

And let's not forget that these days people are patenting ideas. Nearly 20 years ago Amazon patented the idea of using cookies to allow people to stay logged in and buy items with a single click, then sued companies who had implemented similar features in their websites. Today corporations exist that do nothing but buy patents on ideas, wait until a company that might be infringing that patent becomes profitable enough to sue, then sue them for the alleged infringement and demand huge royalties. They are parasites that suck the life blood out of new businesses and new product ideas.

We live in a very wicked society.

Patenting ideas was never supposed to happen, though it's happening. "Business processes" can be patented. Licensing software isn't new, but this "EVERYTHING that runs on any type of software, is not yours because of the software", is a deeper twist to the idea.

I guess HP hit on a key: incorporate software into anything and everything, and you have protected yourself even more. Though I'm not really clear about how all that works.

[Yahtzee]

Full-blown housing bubble’: Economist alarmed by view of never-ending price gains

More than half of the country believes home prices will never fall, according to a new poll from CIBC.

Despite lofty valuations in the Toronto and Vancouver housing markets, 54 per cent of respondents to the CIBC poll say housing prices will rise indefinitely, while only 40 per cent think prices will decline over the course of the next five years.

David Madani, senior Canadian economist at Capital Economics, thinks the unbridled optimism is just one more sign the Toronto housing market is in bubble territory.

“The fact that the majority of Canadians still think home prices can continue to shoot up is sort of testament to the fact we’re in a full-blown housing bubble,” he said in an interview with BNN.

According to the poll, those high prices are keeping homeowners on the sidelines, with 62 per cent of respondents saying they’re reluctant to sell their home, lest they become buyers again.

Home prices in Toronto are up more than 30 per cent over the course of the last year, and prices in Vancouver have risen more than 14 per cent.

Those who are looking to sell are largely of the baby boomer cohort, with more than two-thirds of respondents older than 55 saying they plan to downsize to a smaller home or condo. CIBC says boomers are motivated to sell not just due to the ease of maintaining a smaller home, but also as a boost to their retirement savings.
Housing regulation now needed: David Rosenberg reverses position

David Rosenberg, chief economist, Gluskin Sheff joins BNN to explain why the new data on the housing market has forced him to change his position on the need for government intervention in Canada's hot housing markets.

What’s less clear is who they’re going to sell their home to: 52 per cent of the millennial generation either don’t believe they’ll ever own a home, or are unsure if home ownership is in their future, according to the CIBC poll.

Of those in the younger generation who are already in the housing market, more than four of every five plan to sell, with 63 per cent complaining the mortgage and housing costs are making them cash-poor.

There's Only One Thing Holding Up Canada's Economy Right Now
Federal and provincial governments have taken action to slow down the overheated housing markets around Toronto and Vancouver, but they may want to be careful not to overdo it.

That’s because the housing boom was pretty much the only thing holding up Canada’s economy in February.

The latest data from Statistics Canada shows the economy didn’t grow at all that month, with GDP coming in flat. That’s no surprise to economists, who had been expecting a bit of a slowdown after several months of expectations-beating growth. Many wrote in their client notes Friday that the economy is just “taking a breather.”

But virtually all of the strength in February’s numbers comes from industries related to the housing boom — construction, finance and insurance, and real estate. Had it not been for strength in those areas, the economy would have shrunk in February.



“Housing starts have had a remarkable recent run,” CIBC economist Nick Exarhos wrote in a client note. “Residential investment is now poised to be a modest lift to GDP this year, from a drag we had forecast earlier on.”

Many economists have raised the alarm about Canada’s increasing dependence on housing for its economic growth. Global banking consultancy Macquarie found last fall found that Canada’s reliance on real estate investment hit a record high last year — the same thing that happened in the U.S. shortly before its housing bubble burst.

Meanwhile, overall business investment has been in the dumps since the oil price collapse began in 2014 — a key reason why the Bank of Canada remains worried about Canada's economic growth going forward. Business investment is the key driver of job growth.

A report last year from the International Institute for Sustainable Development urged Canada to reduce its reliance on both housing and oil, arguing the industries have put the economy on a “roller coaster.”

The oil and gas sector has bounced back from its lows over the past year, with output up 6.4 per cent over the past year. But this sector was a drag on growth in February, declining 0.2 per cent.

David Madani of Capital Economics noted that the Bank of Canada is concerned about the lack of balance in the country’s economic growth.

“Until export-led growth backed up by business investment take over as the main growth drivers, policymakers will likely keep interest rates low,” he wrote Friday.

Still, Canada’s economy is likely to put in a strong showing for the first quarter of 2017 as a whole — thanks to very rapid growth at the end of last year and the start of this year.

“Even if March also comes in flat, growth in Q1 will register a hot 4-per-cent pace,” Exarhos wrote.

Basically Canada is in a major housing bubble that will make the USA's 2008 one look like a walk in the park. Going to be very rough here in the near future.

It's insane right now in Happy Valley. My neighbors are all selling and their houses are going in less than a week. I can't believe what they are selling for! 50k more than a year ago. Who is buying? Investors who rent to singles or young, childless, dual income couples predominantly.
My neighbors were booted from their rental so the landlord could sell. They had to settle for something half the size of their previous house but more in rent. The landlords have found they can make more money renting to singles so the families have to pay more to keep up. BYU may have more affordable tuition, but that only works if you have somewhere to live.

[Matchmaker]

Full-blown housing bubble’: Economist alarmed by view of never-ending price gains

More than half of the country believes home prices will never fall, according to a new poll from CIBC.

Despite lofty valuations in the Toronto and Vancouver housing markets, 54 per cent of respondents to the CIBC poll say housing prices will rise indefinitely, while only 40 per cent think prices will decline over the course of the next five years.

David Madani, senior Canadian economist at Capital Economics, thinks the unbridled optimism is just one more sign the Toronto housing market is in bubble territory.

“The fact that the majority of Canadians still think home prices can continue to shoot up is sort of testament to the fact we’re in a full-blown housing bubble,” he said in an interview with BNN.

According to the poll, those high prices are keeping homeowners on the sidelines, with 62 per cent of respondents saying they’re reluctant to sell their home, lest they become buyers again.

Home prices in Toronto are up more than 30 per cent over the course of the last year, and prices in Vancouver have risen more than 14 per cent.

Those who are looking to sell are largely of the baby boomer cohort, with more than two-thirds of respondents older than 55 saying they plan to downsize to a smaller home or condo. CIBC says boomers are motivated to sell not just due to the ease of maintaining a smaller home, but also as a boost to their retirement savings.
Housing regulation now needed: David Rosenberg reverses position

David Rosenberg, chief economist, Gluskin Sheff joins BNN to explain why the new data on the housing market has forced him to change his position on the need for government intervention in Canada's hot housing markets.

What’s less clear is who they’re going to sell their home to: 52 per cent of the millennial generation either don’t believe they’ll ever own a home, or are unsure if home ownership is in their future, according to the CIBC poll.

Of those in the younger generation who are already in the housing market, more than four of every five plan to sell, with 63 per cent complaining the mortgage and housing costs are making them cash-poor.

There's Only One Thing Holding Up Canada's Economy Right Now
Federal and provincial governments have taken action to slow down the overheated housing markets around Toronto and Vancouver, but they may want to be careful not to overdo it.

That’s because the housing boom was pretty much the only thing holding up Canada’s economy in February.

The latest data from Statistics Canada shows the economy didn’t grow at all that month, with GDP coming in flat. That’s no surprise to economists, who had been expecting a bit of a slowdown after several months of expectations-beating growth. Many wrote in their client notes Friday that the economy is just “taking a breather.”

But virtually all of the strength in February’s numbers comes from industries related to the housing boom — construction, finance and insurance, and real estate. Had it not been for strength in those areas, the economy would have shrunk in February.



“Housing starts have had a remarkable recent run,” CIBC economist Nick Exarhos wrote in a client note. “Residential investment is now poised to be a modest lift to GDP this year, from a drag we had forecast earlier on.”

Many economists have raised the alarm about Canada’s increasing dependence on housing for its economic growth. Global banking consultancy Macquarie found last fall found that Canada’s reliance on real estate investment hit a record high last year — the same thing that happened in the U.S. shortly before its housing bubble burst.

Meanwhile, overall business investment has been in the dumps since the oil price collapse began in 2014 — a key reason why the Bank of Canada remains worried about Canada's economic growth going forward. Business investment is the key driver of job growth.

A report last year from the International Institute for Sustainable Development urged Canada to reduce its reliance on both housing and oil, arguing the industries have put the economy on a “roller coaster.”

The oil and gas sector has bounced back from its lows over the past year, with output up 6.4 per cent over the past year. But this sector was a drag on growth in February, declining 0.2 per cent.

David Madani of Capital Economics noted that the Bank of Canada is concerned about the lack of balance in the country’s economic growth.

“Until export-led growth backed up by business investment take over as the main growth drivers, policymakers will likely keep interest rates low,” he wrote Friday.

Still, Canada’s economy is likely to put in a strong showing for the first quarter of 2017 as a whole — thanks to very rapid growth at the end of last year and the start of this year.

“Even if March also comes in flat, growth in Q1 will register a hot 4-per-cent pace,” Exarhos wrote.

Basically Canada is in a major housing bubble that will make the USA's 2008 one look like a walk in the park. Going to be very rough here in the near future.

It's insane right now in Happy Valley. My neighbors are all selling and their houses are going in less than a week. I can't believe what they are selling for! 50k more than a year ago. Who is buying? Investors who rent to singles or young, childless, dual income couples predominantly.
My neighbors were booted from their rental so the landlord could sell. They had to settle for something half the size of their previous house but more in rent. The landlords have found they can make more money renting to singles so the families have to pay more to keep up. BYU may have more affordable tuition, but that only works if you have somewhere to live.

I agree. Houses in Salt Lake County are doing the same thing, but houses are still considered a bargain here compared to those selling in a lot of other metropolitan areas around the US, Europe, and Asia. Look what's happened in Silicon Valley. Asians with cash have almost completely displaced non-Asian American Citizens in the housing markets in San Francisco and San Jose. As long as foreign investors with a lot of money can continue to buy in the USA, housing prices in desirable areas will continue to climb, middle-income Americans will be pushed out of their neighborhoods, and the bubble won't burst. Where lower and middle income Americans are going to colonize next is anyone's guess- Northern Maine, anyone?

[Spaced_Out]

I agree. Houses in Salt Lake County are doing the same thing, but houses are still considered a bargain here compared to those selling in a lot of other metropolitan areas around the US, Europe, and Asia. Look what's happened in Silicon Valley. Asians with cash have almost completely displaced non-Asian American Citizens in the housing markets in San Francisco and San Jose. As long as foreign investors with a lot of money can continue to buy in the USA, housing prices in desirable areas will continue to climb, middle-income Americans will be pushed out of their neighborhoods, and the bubble won't burst. Where lower and middle income Americans are going to colonize next is anyone's guess- Northern Maine, anyone?

The bubble is bursting - bankruptcy and corruption now coming out.

Panic Bank Run Leaves Canada's Largest Alternative Mortgage Lender On Edge Of Collapse
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-2 ... e-collapse

After two years of recurring warnings (both on this website and elsewhere) that Canada's largest alternative (i.e., non-bank) mortgage lender is fundamentally insolvent, kept alive only courtesy of the Canadian housing bubble which until last week had managed to lift all boats, Home Capital Group suffered a spectacular spectacular implosion last week when its stock price crashed by the most on record after HCG revealed that it had taken out an emergency $2 billion line of credit from an unnamed counterparty with an effective rate as high as 22.5%, indicative of a business model on the verge of collapse .
Or, as we put it, Canada just experienced its very own "New Century" moment.

[JK4Woods]

For those of you who pay little attention to the main stream media, who don't bother tuning into nightly news, or remain focused on the shallow superficial stores of the day, then this nugget is for you.

Ten years ago Nancy Pelosi pushed forward the first trillion dollar deficit federal budget. And every year thereafter another trillion dollar budget deficit was passed.

Any idea why ten years is significant?
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It's because 86% of federal debt is held in ten year T-bills. Due and payable ten years after issuing them.

So come October 1st, 2017; the first trillion borrowed (and spent) will be due to be paid.

Guess what?!? We'll still have to borrow another trillion and a half for next year's federal operating budget.

So come October, we'll have to roll over a trillion dollars worth of T-bills, and issue another trillion and a half for the coming fiscal year.

I wonder who will step up to the plate and buy the old debt made new, and who will buy the newest debt? At what interest rate?

It's not like we have a trillion in cash ready to payout for the T-bills coming due.

The sad part is every year for the next ten years, we will have another trillion to re-finance and a trillion and a half to raise to keep the swamp running per status quo.

Everyone who relies on the arm of flesh (capitalistic economy) will wake up wiped out from a bail-in, in which all savings are confiscated by the fed to try and keep the foregone disaster from happening.

Those out of debt will be in an enviable position, ready to reap other blessings from being obedient to prophetic counsel to get out of debt.

Sure we might weather this coming October first with cooking the books (once again), but the year after, or the year after that and kicking the can down the road will not provide any meaningful solution.

Babylon shall fall, and quickly shall be the effect with weeping and mashing of teeth.

Ye that has been warned, warn your neighbor.
Bon Chance