EARTHQUAKES!

[DrJonescaptain of 1,000]

It has now been just over two months, without an earthquake of M = 7.0 or higher:

# Magnitude 5.7 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN June 11, 2012
# Magnitude 6.4 SOUTH OF PANAMA June 04, 2012
# Magnitude 6.2 SOUTH OF PANAMA June 04, 2012
# Magnitude 6.7 SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO, ARGENTINA May 28, 2012
# Magnitude 5.6 BULGARIA May 22, 2012
# Magnitude 6.7 TONGA April 28, 2012
# Magnitude 6.6 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA April 21, 2012
# Magnitude 6.8 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA April 17, 2012
# Magnitude 6.7 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE April 17, 2012
# Magnitude 6.5 VANUATU April 14, 2012
# Magnitude 6.9 GULF OF CALIFORNIA April 12, 2012
# Magnitude 6.5 MICHOACAN, MEXICO April 11, 2012
# Magnitude 5.9 OFF THE COAST OF OREGON April 11, 2012
# Magnitude 8.2 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA April 11, 2012
-USGS data

[AGalagaChiasmuscaptain of 100]

I just want to reiterate one point ... There is a huge potential for a mass exodus to leave the valley. Further, there will be challenges for the people who wish to leave. From a spiritual standpoint, there will no doubt be divine help for those that are leaving. But, if roads and freeways are impassable, how are people going to leave easily? Remember, nearly every freeway overpass has the potential for collapse. That's a lot of roadblocks to get out. Further, there is pretty good potential for Tooele Utah to escape the kind of damage that cities and towns along the Wasatch front may not. This is because a mountain stands between Tooele and the Wasatch Fault - and that mountain is not sitting on gravel. It may protect them from from some of the damage from the shockwave and rolling motion. Im not saying that everyone consider moving to Tooele ... but I would say that the current rescue workers there such as firemen and EMTs, and Police, will no doubt be called to help along the front. This will leave a vacuum of security there in Tooele.

The Deseret News report I read back in 2004-06 - their scenario was a 7.3 in a wintery February....
It destroyed almost every bridge, overpass, along with most water lines, gas lines, and electrical transmission. It projected several weeks just to get basic help and minimal services to people in many scattered areas due to these things I just listed - particularly because of the roads/bridge/overpass destruction...

Here is the USGS Scenario. M7.2 Provo segment of Wasatch Fault goes. Depth: 12km



From experience, the light green in Fruitland, UT area feels like the Space Shuttle is launching next door. The Valley Floor is red = unable walk or stand.

[Sweet&Noblecaptain of 50]

A 4.1 magnitude earthquake struck Southern California on Wednesday evening, but there were no immediate reports of damage or injury.

The temblor hit at 8:17 p.m. local time and was centered 2 miles north of Yorba Linda, California, about 28 miles southeast of Los Angeles, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

The quake was followed by a 2.4 magnitude aftershock a few minutes later.

[Sweet&Noblecaptain of 50]

A moderate earthquake with a magnitude of 5.5 shook Sirnak province in southeast Turkey on Thursday, the Kandilli Observatory in Istanbul said.

There were no immediate reports of damage or casualties in the quake, whose epicenter was at Silopi, near the Iraqi border. The U.S. Geological Survey said the quake had a magnitude of 5.3.

Earthquakes are a daily occurrence in Turkey, which is criss-crossed by geological fault lines. In October last year, more than 600 people died in the eastern province of Van after a quake of 7.2 magnitude and powerful aftershocks.

[Sweet&Noblecaptain of 50]

Australia:
Coalville Victoria resident Glenn Mason thought a truck had crashed through a wall retainer.

"The house was shaking so much I thought it was a landslide," he said.

"I was waiting for the truck to come through our lounge room.

"I just heard this trembling then a bang and a crack.

The magnitude 5.4 earthquake shook homes, cracked windows and walls, and threw residents from their chairs.

Millions across the state felt the tremor, which had an epicentre 16km southwest of Moe at Coalville, in the Latrobe Valley in Victoria's east.

The quake struck at 8.53pm and lasted for 30 seconds, Geoscience Australia spokesman Chris Thompson said.

Last night’s quake was equal to the 5.4 magnitude earthquake which shook Wongungarra 30 years ago.

In 1996, the Richter scale spiked further to 5.7 when an earthquake hit near Mt Hotham.

Graeme Wilson, 61, was the closest person to the quake last night - his home only 400m from the epicentre.

"It felt to me like a motorbike on its side crashing through the kitchen," he told the Herald Sun today.

"Couple of things fell down but only a vase broke."

More than 60 aftershocks have rocked the area near Moe where last night's earthquake began.

Most have been small and unnoticeable – but at least one registered an estimated magnitude of 3.5 on the Richter Scale.

And the aftershocks will continue to plague the area, with the possibility of one equalling or exceeding last night's initial quake a threat over the coming days and even weeks, according to experts.

Geoscience Australia is now moving to set up aftershock monitoring equipment in the area to pinpoint the location of the initial quake and potentially to influence the guidelines for infrastructure.

“I expect they (aftershocks) will die out in a couple of days, but it could be a couple of weeks,” said Dr David Jepsen.

Seismology Research Centre spokesman Adam Pascale said the quake was almost as strong as the magnitude 5.6 quake that killed 13 people in Newcastle in 1989. http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-n ... 6401623358

[AussieOicaptain of 1,000]

Our house shook for 30 seconds
Was like a truck coming closer and driving past your window and then away
The thing that is unsettling is that you don't know how long it will last and don't know if it is subsiding or increasing
we stood there in the kitchen talking going hey wow, isnt this cool. because we dont live on a fault line it can't really go past 5 like it did
its a pretty amazing experience
we've had 2 in 3 or so years now
we tried to guess the scale. i thought 4.7. it was 80kms away and i was about on the money
nature is greater, thats for sure

[drjmecaptain of 100]

[Sweet&Noblecaptain of 50]

A magnitude 3.8 earthquake has rattled central western New South Wales this evening.

Geoscience Australia says the epicentre was 20 kilometres north of Boorowa and 40 kilometres north-east of Young.

It is understood local police have been fielding a large number of calls from concerned residents, but there are no reports of damage at this stage.

It comes just days after a magnitude 5.3 quake struck the Gippsland region in Victoria.

[singyourwayhomecaptain of 1,000]

Just saw this today: "A Map of 114 Years of Earthquake Epicenters": http://www.theblaze.com/stories/heres-what-a-map-of-114-years-of-earthquake-epicenters-looks-like/

[DrJonescaptain of 1,000]

Funny!
And again, it is notable that significant quakes have been few in over two months now; this update on "significant earthquakes" from USGS today:

# Magnitude 5.7 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN June 11, 2012
# Magnitude 6.4 SOUTH OF PANAMA June 04, 2012
# Magnitude 6.2 SOUTH OF PANAMA June 04, 2012
# Magnitude 6.7 SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO, ARGENTINA May 28, 2012
# Magnitude 5.6 BULGARIA May 22, 2012
# Magnitude 6.7 TONGA April 28, 2012
# Magnitude 6.6 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA April 21, 2012
# Magnitude 6.8 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA April 17, 2012
# Magnitude 6.7 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE April 17, 2012
# Magnitude 6.5 VANUATU April 14, 2012
# Magnitude 6.9 GULF OF CALIFORNIA April 12, 2012
# Magnitude 6.5 MICHOACAN, MEXICO April 11, 2012
# Magnitude 5.9 OFF THE COAST OF OREGON April 11, 2012
# Magnitude 8.2 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA April 11, 2012

Nothing over M=7 since April 11th.
And note this pattern near Puerto Rico, data as of 24 June 2012 (below). I noted 47 EQ's near PRico on that day -- which is unusually high; typical is about 25 (over a one-week period). Testing at that time? Note: these are DATA; not scientifically confident to draw any conclusions yet from these interesting data.
Pattern is gone now...

[minganocaptain of 1,000]

Meh. Just background noise. Puerto Rico has had three major (> 7.0) quakes in recorded history and one of those was an 8. There was a 4th recorded in 1670 that was very destructive but a magnitude has never been set.

The magnitudes aren't really that important though - the only thing that really matters is the damage. An 8.0 in the middle of nowhere isn't a big deal, a 6.0 that takes out half of a city is.

These quakes are all just part of the noise of a dynamic planet.

[SmallFarmcaptain of 1,000]

Meh. Just background noise. Puerto Rico has had three major (> 7.0) quakes in recorded history and one of those was an 8. There was a 4th recorded in 1670 that was very destructive but a magnitude has never been set.

The magnitudes aren't really that important though - the only thing that really matters is the damage. An 8.0 in the middle of nowhere isn't a big deal, a 6.0 that takes out half of a city is.

These quakes are all just part of the noise of a dynamic planet.

If you read a ways back you will see a hypothesis from Dr. Jones. He has been looking at a correlation between earthquake activity in Puerto Rico dropping off just before a large earthquake somewhere else in the world. He has a theory (forgive me for speaking for you, Dr. Jones) that someone is experimenting with earthquake inducing technology.

[minganocaptain of 1,000]

If you read a ways back you will see a hypothesis from Dr. Jones. He has been looking at a correlation between earthquake activity in Puerto Rico dropping off just before a large earthquake somewhere else in the world. He has a theory (forgive me for speaking for you, Dr. Jones) that someone is experimenting with earthquake inducing technology.

I did not know this.

[Robthe Sunbeam]

*DELETED

[AGalagaChiasmuscaptain of 100]

Meh. Just background noise.

It's amazing how much this guy likes to dismiss data. He must be a very accomplished seismologist, or not.

Oh Rob, you are just background noise.

[minganocaptain of 1,000]

Meh. Just background noise.

It's amazing how much this guy likes to dismiss data. He must be a very accomplished seismologist, or not.

Now just hold on a cotton picking moment here kid, there is a huge difference between "dismissing data" and "concluding that data isn't particularly worth of excitement". You need to learn the difference.

All data is contextual. If I tell you that the thermometer read 100 degrees for 15 minutes straight would you get excited? In Texas in July, no. On the sun or Antarctica, yes.

The earth is ALWAYS quaking. 24/7. You can't fart without the smell being bookended by tremors somewhere on the globe. M6s in the ring of fire or in other seismic zones just isn't that exciting. They happen all the freaking time. Between 2000 and 2011 there was a magnitude 6.x every 60 hours. Whoop de do, yee-freaking-haw let's hold a press conference and interrupt tonight's airing of American Idol because some rocks fell over in the Peruvian desert.

This isn't "dismissing data". This is recognizing which data is significant and which isn't. Compare these routine, run of the mill 6's with a 5.7 that lasts for 36 hours straight. Now THOSE are interesting.

[Robthe Sunbeam]

Meh. Just background noise.

It's amazing how much this guy likes to dismiss data. He must be a very accomplished seismologist, or not.

Oh Rob, you are just background noise.

Heheh, apparently.

[AGalagaChiasmuscaptain of 100]

Meh. Just background noise.

It's amazing how much this guy likes to dismiss data. He must be a very accomplished seismologist, or not.

Now just hold on a cotton picking moment here kid, there is a huge difference between "dismissing data" and "concluding that data isn't particularly worth of excitement". You need to learn the difference.

All data is contextual. If I tell you that the thermometer read 100 degrees for 15 minutes straight would you get excited? In Texas in July, no. On the sun or Antarctica, yes.

The earth is ALWAYS quaking. 24/7. You can't fart without the smell being bookended by tremors somewhere on the globe. M6s in the ring of fire or in other seismic zones just isn't that exciting. They happen all the freaking time. Between 2000 and 2011 there was a magnitude 6.x every 60 hours. Whoop de do, yee-freaking-haw let's hold a press conference and interrupt tonight's airing of American Idol because some rocks fell over in the Peruvian desert.

This isn't "dismissing data". This is recognizing which data is significant and which isn't. Compare these routine, run of the mill 6's with a 5.7 that lasts for 36 hours straight. Now THOSE are interesting.

Well and since we've had a global (mostly) detection network in place, you can start to play games with the statistical data, like running Fourier Transforms and flipping everything into the spatial frequency domain, so that 3.6 in Texas wasn't very large as earthquakes go, but was VERY statistically significant. You can start trending these millions of quakes to capture cause and effect, etc. Suddenly, the "background noise" of the planet starts to take shape into something much more interesting and perhaps foretelling.

[Robthe Sunbeam]

*DELETED

[buffalo_girlcaptain of 1,000]

SmallFarm wrote:If you read a ways back you will see a hypothesis from Dr. Jones. He has been looking at a correlation between earthquake activity in Puerto Rico dropping off just before a large earthquake somewhere else in the world. He has a theory (forgive me for speaking for you, Dr. Jones) that someone is experimenting with earthquake inducing technology.


I did not know this.

It sounds to me that mingano is not 'dismissing' Dr. Jones' theory. He simply didn't know that the data was supporting a train of thought.

Most people aren't aware of tectonic warfare.

Once in awhile I like to repost this 1971 article from the Ensign. It lends perspective and credibility to an abominable reality.

http://www.lds.org/ensign/1971/03/arms- ... ry=firmage

Arms Control in the ’70s By Edwin Brown Firmage, March 1971

Weapons systems of the near future may include geophysical techniques to alter weather, cause earthquakes or drought, and perhaps alter the nature of the atmosphere.

[bobhenstracaptain of 1,000]

Weapons systems of the near future may include geophysical techniques to alter weather, cause earthquakes or drought, and perhaps [u]alter the nature of the atmosphere.

It's enough for me to know who has absolute control over those weapons!

Bob

[minganocaptain of 1,000]

tell us the criteria you use to differentiate which quakes are precursors to larger ones

At this point we lack the ability to make this determination ahead of time so the honest and accurate answer is "the ones that are".

and which quakes can be considered "jiggles", as you put it

All of the others.

and, while you're at it, give us your credentials.

I know what I'm talking about. What are yours?

Have you ever bothered to read the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF)? Have you ever heard of it? Have you ever heard of the Southern California Earthquake Center? They're a joint venture between the NSF and the USGS. This is their forecast:

According to the new forecast, California has a 99.7% chance of having a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake during the next 30 years (see Figure 1). The likelihood of an even more powerful quake of magnitude 7.5 or greater in the next 30 years is 46%. Such a quake is more likely to occur in the southern half of the state (37% chance in 30 years) than in the northern half (15% chance in 30 years) (see Figure 2).

I will bet ANYTHING that they know a lot more about earthquakes than you do, and their forecasts are extremely vague. If they can't tell which quakes are precursors then what in the world would possibly give you the idea that you can?

And while we're at it, let's look at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/wg02/index.php

Remember when I said that 6.x quakes aren't really that big of a deal? And then you demanded to see my "credentials"? Guess what - the USGS doesn't consider a quake to be "major" until 6.7 - I simplified things a bit for my audience but I really do know what I'm talking about.

Did you know that the USGS used to have an earthquake forecast map online? You can see where it used to be at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/step/ - "The 24-Hour Aftershock Forecast Map has been permanently removed and will eventually be replaced with a new system." Why was it removed? Because it just wasn't a very good system that provided much accuracy on a consistent basis because we just can't predict quakes yet.

Ever hear of Rundle-Tiampo? 10 years ago it was an incredibly accurate quake prediction system run by NASA. They predicted 15 out of 16 quakes they said. Miracle of science! We're going to change the world! Amazing!

So Boston College did some digging. Their results are here: https://www2.bc.edu/~kafka/Kafka_Ebel_EOS_0107.pdf
(The same research is posted at the American Geophysical Union, agu.org - I've heard of them so on that point alone my credentials are probably better than yours.)

What are your credentials? How much have you read on the subject? To what extent have you studied it? Ever lie awake at night wondering about such things? Ever explore all kinds of claims about "successful" quake predictions based on immediate precursors? Do you know about the Chinese lights? Do you know about the people who claim to have successfully predicted earthquakes based on the classified ads? Do you know that wells are watched? Radon levels? TV stations? Have you ever read the stories of the self-proclaimed earthquake sensitives?

Let's make it easier? Do you know the difference between a P wave and an S wave? An epicenter and a focus? Long period quakes? Harmonic tremors? Do any of these terms have any sort of significance to you?

Let me know how detailed you want to get. If all you want to do is whine that I don't wet my pants with excitement at an event that happens every 60 hours then we have nothing to discuss. If you want to actually discuss things at the big people table then let me know.

[minganocaptain of 1,000]

that 3.6 in Texas wasn't very large as earthquakes go, but was VERY statistically significant

Yes, it is statistically significant. But these quakes are believed to be caused by waste injection wells or other human activity and are unlikely to get much stronger than this one.

[minganocaptain of 1,000]

It sounds to me that mingano is not 'dismissing' Dr. Jones' theory. He simply didn't know that the data was supporting a train of thought.

This would be accurate.

Most people aren't aware of tectonic warfare.

I'm not most people. I've been hearing claims that one of HAARP's capabilities is to induce earthquakes. I also saw Conspiracy Theory on TV once - the entire premise of the plot was the government's ability to generate earthquakes from the space shuttle.

[Robthe Sunbeam]

*DELETED

[HeirofNumenorthe Heir Of Numenor]

let it go guys, please let it go.....

[minganocaptain of 1,000]

Spoken like a true politician. I'm looking for a valid scientific reason for your dismissing data.

In your own words what is the difference between dismissing data and not getting excited over it?

It's one thing to admit you have none, but that you listen to those that do. It's another thing entirely to make such a statement without being willing/able to back it up.

I never claimed I had credentials. If you demanded credentials from everybody who posted anything on the internet then the world would be a much bigger place.

I'm curious as to why you persist in shooting down small quakes and then get angry when you're asked to back up your assessment.

I get annoyed because I do not see anything to get excited about and get jumped on by people who abstractly do and can't come up with a valid reason why. Is that good enough for you?

Want science? Fine. Tell me why I should get excited over background levels of seismic activity. Go.

That they know more than me is irrelevant. I call straw man.

I'm sorry, I thought this portion of the thread was about credentials. Guess not. Carry on.

I never said I could. I just said that you dismiss data. Keep hitting that straw man.

Funny you should mention straw man when you repeatedly accuse me of "dismissing data". Show me something interesting in the data. Prove to me that it is interesting. I've looked at it. I do not think you understand what dismissing data means.

I didn't demand (another straw man), I asked.

Nobody who uses the term "straw man" so frequently within a single post could possibly understand what it means.

You sound upset.

Straw man.

If you can't carry on a scientific discussion without getting angry, you may want to consider not posting.

What scientific discussion? All you do is say "straw man" and ignore the real science. You have yet to use even a single word even vaguely related to science except for "data" and I'm not convinced you know what that means.

[DrJonescaptain of 1,000]

The electrical grid was down here for a while -- just getting back on.
Wow... quite a discussion, but really, I've just pointed to a possible correlation and I don't see much point spending a lot of time on it. I noted that the activity at PRico has been high for a while, and I can plot the data (which I record essentially every day) and show this in more detail if that is important.

Like the 188-day correlation discussed earlier in this thread -- interesting, and something to watch. The next 188-day prediction comes up about 21 Sept, +/- a day or two. Is it worth arguing over? I don't think so. The value of a scientific hypothesis lies in its ability to predict and to be tested, IMO.

[bobhenstracaptain of 1,000]

Golly gee wilikers, sounds like a bunch of paulistas in here---

[minganocaptain of 1,000]

I noted that the activity at PRico has been high for a while

Here are some links you might like (if you don't know of them already)

http://redsismica.uprm.edu/english/
http://soundwaves.usgs.gov/2003/10/fieldwork.html
http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pages/caribbean/

Activity at Puerto Rico is critically important to monitor as a sudden slip could easily result in a tsunami that directly affects the US.