Spring food crisis may trigger economic collapse

[NamasteMama]

Spring food crisis may trigger economic collapse

http://economiccrisis.us/2010/01/spr...omic-collapse/

You have maybe two months to stock up on the necessities of life before food prices rise dramatically, potentially prompting a food panic, widespread famine, and quite possibly the long-expected collapse of the U.S. economy.

Farmers across America and in many other parts of the world are calling 2009 the worst harvest they’ve ever seen in their lives, owing largely to extended bouts of bad weather. At the same time the U.S. Department of Agriculture is officially forecasting bumper crops, while grain elevators stand nearly empty and close to three-fourths of the country’s farmland is in areas declared eligible for federal disaster assistance due to failed crops.

A popular farmers’ Web site is chock full of stories of entire crops of soybeans rejected for moisture damage, long delays in harvesting corn only to find out the corn is moldy, damaged or too light to be used as animal feed or even ethanol, and farmers unsure if they’ll even have a farm for another year due to the losses they’ve taken.

Most agricultural products are purchased in futures, which are promises to deliver a quantity of a commodity at a future date. Futures carry many risks, prominent among them the possibility that the commodity simply won’t be available at the promised delivery date. While futures prices are set by the market, some of the information used to set the prices comes from the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports. The unrealistic 2009 bumper crop predictions in its recent reports, which may have seemed reasonable months ago before 2009’s long string of bad weather but which USDA has failed to revise, drove futures prices artificially low.

But grain futures prices have already risen well above the USDA’s latest projections as the corn harvest threatens to drag on into March in some areas of the country, thanks to an unusually wet 2009 and unprecedented fall flooding in the Midwest.

The good news is that even with 2009 being the worst harvest in human memory, there will still be plenty of food in the U.S. to feed everyone in the U.S. The bad news — if you’re in the U.S. — is that the food won’t be used to feed everyone in the U.S.

It seems China has finally figured out what to do with all the U.S. dollars it’s holding. You’ll recall that the Federal Reserve took some pretty extreme measures over the last two years, ostensibly to save the U.S. economy. In fact, those measures have set us up the bomb. For decades China has been buying U.S. debt and financing Americans’ credit addiction as well as the government’s massive spending on millions of projects it has no business being involved in. But, it seems, they’ve had enough of the dollar and are about to pull the plug.

In the meantime, China has been using those dollars to buy every morsel of American food it can get its hands on. Combined with 2009’s bad weather and the USDA’s ridiculous numbers, this prompted a late August soybean shortage which is expected to continue through 2010.

The U.S. has a very good reason to fudge the numbers on crop estimates. If it published realistic numbers, and crop futures prices rose sharply, three things would likely happen: Wall Street would take massive losses, inflation fears would cause investors to dump bonds, frustrating the government’s attempts to finance its incredible expanding debt, and most importantly, China, whose currency is tied closely to the U.S. dollar, would allow it to appreciate. That alone would likely send the U.S. dollar into freefall; all three would mean utter economic collapse.

Of course, you can’t fool the market for long; as noted above, futures prices are already well above the USDA’s numbers. All they really managed to do with their numbers game was buy the U.S. dollar another year of life.

One market analyst believes that the 2010 food shortage will be the catalyst which not only brings about the collapse of the U.S. economy, but takes down Great Britain and Japan with it.

While a food crisis was unavoidable to some extent because of the abnormal weather and financial crisis, the total panic which will soon grip world agricultural markets is a creation of the USDA and its fictitious production estimates. If not for the USDA’s interference, food prices would have risen in the first half of 2009 in anticipation of the 2009/10 shortage. The United States Department of Agriculture has caused incalculable damage to the world economy by encouraging overconsumption of rapidly diminishing food supplies.

Once the 2010 Food Crisis starts, confidence in the US government will be shattered as a result of the USDA’s faulty estimates. The starvation and misery caused by higher food prices will also create a lot of anger . . . — Market Skeptics

In this scenario, rural banks will begin failing rapidly, especially in the Midwest, and the inevitable bailouts will drive up U.S. debt further. These bailouts, combined with the Chinese allowing the yuan to appreciate, will erode confidence in the U.S. dollar to the point that foreign banks and investors begin dumping U.S. debt at fire sale prices. At that point the Federal Reserve will have no choice but to print money, leading directly to hyperinflation.

I shouldn’t have to tell you what hyperinflation will look like, but in case you need a reminder, it will likely make the Great Depression look like a minor recession. Tens of millions of people who have never known want in their entire lives are going to be shocked to wake up broke and hungry, with no idea what happened or why it happened to them. The government will almost certainly be unable to fulfill its promises of food stamps, social security and other such welfare programs. Food riots are likely and people will almost certainly die when the government attempts to put them down.

Worst of all, almost nobody will assign blame where it truly belongs: central banks and fiat currency.

Market Skeptics and many other foreign investors I’ve seen quoted widely in foreign media but virtually never in the U.S., recommend investing in agriculture, except derivatives, and in precious metals. I also recommend you invest in as much nonperishable food as you can lay hands on in the next two months, at least a year’s supply if you can manage it. If there’s no collapse, you can eat it, and if there is, you’ll at least have something to eat. And when you read a headline such as “Yuan allowed to rise versus dollar,” it’s time to head for the hills.
__________________

[will]

Strange the link can no longer be found.

http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/12/2 ... mmies.html

This on looks interesting.

[Original_Intent]

Duplicate thread http://www.ldsfreedomforum.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=9975

Interesting that this is going to coincide with this little event: http://market-ticker.denninger.net/arch ... Folks.html

So we are going to have a huge market crash (most likely) and mark my words - it will ALL be blamed on the disastrous food harvests and problems stemming from that - the true hoodlums will walk - again.

[kathyn]

If this is true, then I'm glad I took advantage of the "case-lot" sale today.

[kathyn]

Does anyone have any idea which foods will be most in demand or is it going to be across the board?

[Col. Flagg]

2010 is going to be a BAD time to be in the restaurant business.

[Col. Flagg]

Was able to archive the link to the story:

http://economiccrisis.us/2010/01/spring ... -collapse/

I know what I'm spending my tax refund on next month!

[Toto]

Anyone else wondering what effect the recent reduction of global temperature will have on the food supply?

Saving the bacon
http://www.cphpost.dk/news/national/88- ... bacon.html
Among the multitude of problems caused by the heavy snow fall in Jutland, has been the collapse of a pig sty roof, trapping 800 pigs beneath it.

Ireland facing potato crisis as frigid weather grips nation
http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Irelan ... 00927.html
As Ireland faces the prospect of ten more days of freezing temperatures, potato farmers in Ireland are facing a very uncertain future as they can’t harvest their crops.
Between the floods around the country in November and the subsequent freeze in December and now January, potato farmers have been left frustrated as either water or ice has prevented them from getting potatoes out of the ground, and that could result in a loss of around €15 ($21.6) million to Irish potato farmers.

[will]

Does anyone have any idea which foods will be most in demand or is it going to be across the board?

Yes, edible food will be in the highest demand, In cases of extreme shortage throughout history, People have resorted to cannibalism.


I hope everyone is prepared, If not, good luck.

[gruden]

The unrealistic 2009 bumper crop predictions in its recent reports, which may have seemed reasonable months ago before 2009’s long string of bad weather but which USDA has failed to revise, drove futures prices artificially low.

Does this sound familiar? It should. This is the kind of crap Goldman Sachs & JP Morgan have been doing for a year. Prices take a dive, those 2 banks buy up everything for pennies on the dollar with bailout funds. They engineer enough of a recovery to bring prices up and profits go through the roof. How hard do you think it was to get key people in the USDA to make outrageous predictions on crop futures? Drive prices down, buy it all up, then watch prices go up when people get a clue. These are the Master Mahans at work.

[lost ark]

I know what I'm spending my tax refund on next month!

Good thing we weren't planning to do the same! Our refund, which has been in the $6-8K range for several years, has dropped to $3K for this year.

No, dh did not earn any more money or bump us up into a higher bracket. No, our donations have not decreased. No, we didn't adjust the W-2 to increase take-home pay (much as I had wanted him to last year. I guess it's a good thing he didn't.). We pay just as much mortgage interest as ever.

We just had two of our children get older. (Well, they all got older, but two of them doing so affected our refund.)

I guess other families have experienced the same. But it was such a rude awakening for us. And I'm afraid it will be a rude awakening for a few more.

[NamasteMama]

I know this that gas prices are starting to creep up. I think they will blame high food prices and lack there-of on this. Either way I am going to make sure to have plenty of food for my family. I have a one year basic for my whole family, which was tough as my husband only made 7,000$ last year and we have 6 kids, but I plan to add more to it with our tax return. Sorry about the re-post, I don't get a lot of time to read everything. The fact that the article has disappeared is in itself very concerning.

[NamasteMama]

Maybe they have moved it, but i found it again, cut and paste incase there were any changes made......

http://economiccrisis.us/2010/01/spring ... -collapse/
Spring food crisis may trigger economic collapse
January - 7 - 2010

ecocriYou have maybe two months to stock up on the necessities of life before food prices rise dramatically, potentially prompting a food panic, widespread famine, and quite possibly the long-expected collapse of the U.S. economy.

Farmers across America and in many other parts of the world are calling 2009 the worst harvest they’ve ever seen in their lives, owing largely to extended bouts of bad weather. At the same time the U.S. Department of Agriculture is officially forecasting bumper crops, while grain elevators stand nearly empty and close to three-fourths of the country’s farmland is in areas declared eligible for federal disaster assistance due to failed crops.

A popular farmers’ Web site is chock full of stories of entire crops of soybeans rejected for moisture damage, long delays in harvesting corn only to find out the corn is moldy, damaged or too light to be used as animal feed or even ethanol, and farmers unsure if they’ll even have a farm for another year due to the losses they’ve taken.

Most agricultural products are purchased in futures, which are promises to deliver a quantity of a commodity at a future date. Futures carry many risks, prominent among them the possibility that the commodity simply won’t be available at the promised delivery date. While futures prices are set by the market, some of the information used to set the prices comes from the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports. The unrealistic 2009 bumper crop predictions in its recent reports, which may have seemed reasonable months ago before 2009’s long string of bad weather but which USDA has failed to revise, drove futures prices artificially low.

But grain futures prices have already risen well above the USDA’s latest projections as the corn harvest threatens to drag on into March in some areas of the country, thanks to an unusually wet 2009 and unprecedented fall flooding in the Midwest.

The good news is that even with 2009 being the worst harvest in human memory, there will still be plenty of food in the U.S. to feed everyone in the U.S. The bad news — if you’re in the U.S. — is that the food won’t be used to feed everyone in the U.S.

It seems China has finally figured out what to do with all the U.S. dollars it’s holding. You’ll recall that the Federal Reserve took some pretty extreme measures over the last two years, ostensibly to save the U.S. economy. In fact, those measures have set us up the bomb. For decades China has been buying U.S. debt and financing Americans’ credit addiction as well as the government’s massive spending on millions of projects it has no business being involved in. But, it seems, they’ve had enough of the dollar and are about to pull the plug.

In the meantime, China has been using those dollars to buy every morsel of American food it can get its hands on. Combined with 2009’s bad weather and the USDA’s ridiculous numbers, this prompted a late August soybean shortage which is expected to continue through 2010.

The U.S. has a very good reason to fudge the numbers on crop estimates. If it published realistic numbers, and crop futures prices rose sharply, three things would likely happen: Wall Street would take massive losses, inflation fears would cause investors to dump bonds, frustrating the government’s attempts to finance its incredible expanding debt, and most importantly, China, whose currency is tied closely to the U.S. dollar, would allow it to appreciate. That alone would likely send the U.S. dollar into freefall; all three would mean utter economic collapse.

Of course, you can’t fool the market for long; as noted above, futures prices are already well above the USDA’s numbers. All they really managed to do with their numbers game was buy the U.S. dollar another year of life.

One market analyst believes that the 2010 food shortage will be the catalyst which not only brings about the collapse of the U.S. economy, but takes down Great Britain and Japan with it.

While a food crisis was unavoidable to some extent because of the abnormal weather and financial crisis, the total panic which will soon grip world agricultural markets is a creation of the USDA and its fictitious production estimates. If not for the USDA’s interference, food prices would have risen in the first half of 2009 in anticipation of the 2009/10 shortage. The United States Department of Agriculture has caused incalculable damage to the world economy by encouraging overconsumption of rapidly diminishing food supplies.

Once the 2010 Food Crisis starts, confidence in the US government will be shattered as a result of the USDA’s faulty estimates. The starvation and misery caused by higher food prices will also create a lot of anger . . . — Market Skeptics

In this scenario, rural banks will begin failing rapidly, especially in the Midwest, and the inevitable bailouts will drive up U.S. debt further. These bailouts, combined with the Chinese allowing the yuan to appreciate, will erode confidence in the U.S. dollar to the point that foreign banks and investors begin dumping U.S. debt at fire sale prices. At that point the Federal Reserve will have no choice but to print money, leading directly to hyperinflation.

I shouldn’t have to tell you what hyperinflation will look like, but in case you need a reminder, it will likely make the Great Depression look like a minor recession. Tens of millions of people who have never known want in their entire lives are going to be shocked to wake up broke and hungry, with no idea what happened or why it happened to them. The government will almost certainly be unable to fulfill its promises of food stamps, social security and other such welfare programs. Food riots are likely and people will almost certainly die when the government attempts to put them down.

Worst of all, almost nobody will assign blame where it truly belongs: central banks and fiat currency.

Market Skeptics and many other foreign investors I’ve seen quoted widely in foreign media but virtually never in the U.S., recommend investing in agriculture, except derivatives, and in precious metals. I also recommend you invest in as much nonperishable food as you can lay hands on in the next two months, at least a year’s supply if you can manage it. If there’s no collapse, you can eat it, and if there is, you’ll at least have something to eat. And when you read a headline such as “Yuan allowed to rise versus dollar,” it’s time to head for the hills.
By Michael Hampton – homelandstupidity.us

[Toto]

Does anyone have any idea which foods will be most in demand or is it going to be across the board?

Yes, edible food will be in the highest demand, In cases of extreme shortage throughout history, People have resorted to cannibalism.

I agree. Food fit to be eaten would clearly have a higher demand than non edible food, and decidedly better fare than government approved processed "soylent green" wafers.

[Original_Intent]

I am really suspicious of the way they word it - like the food crisis is going to cause the economic collapse. I think it is more accurate to say the food crisis will coincide with the economic collapse. Yet the meme is already going out that the food crisis is going to be the scapegoat - nice...if they can just hold the economy together for a couple more months, anything that goes wrong can be hung on the food storage - also may be able to get rid of that pesky 85% surplus population...

Soylent Green indeed.

[NamasteMama]

What's meme?

[Rose Garden]

I checked a couple of farming forums and didn't find any mention of a bad spring crop. Is this article from a reliable source?

[MasterOfNone]

Edible food? There's another type?

[Original_Intent]

What's meme?

Well, you made me realize that I don't really know, i was just using it as I had heard it used.
I looked it up on Wikipedia and am still not sure I understand the concept, so let me explain to you my meaning, rather meme was the right word to use or not.

You know how sometimes there are "facts" out there that are common knowledge and yet are not true? Well sometimes I think those are just cultural errors of fact that crop up over time. However, occassionally, even frequently, I sometime catch the media trying to "plant" certain ideas in the public's collective mind. for instance, on any given day surf thru the cable news channels. Often times you will hear certain opinions expressed almost word for word, sometimes exactly word for word across all the channels - doesn't matter if it is leftwing MSNBC or right wing FOX. I consider this a concerted attempt by the MSM to make certain opinions or viewpoints "common knowledge", even if what is known is not true.

Therefore, I was implying that the idea is already being put out there that the food crisis is going to trigger the economic crisis. When and if a food crisis actually unfolds, I expect this to be beaten into out skulls relentlessly that the economic crisis was caused by the food crisis. Anyone that says, "hey wait a minute, maybe it was a small contributing factor, but there were a lot of people saying that we were in a deep economic mess BEFORE the food crisis!" is going to be labelled a kook, a whacko, a conspiracy theorist - which for the large portion of the population, this merely reinforces the correctness of the "meme" that they have been programmed with.

So I am not sure that meme is actually the right word for what I was trying to express. Over on Ron Paul Forums the word is used thusly, and I just had assumed the meaning from context.

[reese]

For anyone near a Macys in SLC, maybe else where too I'm not sure, they are having a great case lot/foodstorage sale this week. Best prices I've seen on morning moos #10 can products, it is while supplies last though. 50lb bags of wheat for $12.00 as well.

[patriotsaint]

Anyone else wondering what effect the recent reduction of global temperature will have on the food supply?

Saving the bacon
http://www.cphpost.dk/news/national/88- ... bacon.html
Among the multitude of problems caused by the heavy snow fall in Jutland, has been the collapse of a pig sty roof, trapping 800 pigs beneath it.

Ireland facing potato crisis as frigid weather grips nation
http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Irelan ... 00927.html
As Ireland faces the prospect of ten more days of freezing temperatures, potato farmers in Ireland are facing a very uncertain future as they can’t harvest their crops.
Between the floods around the country in November and the subsequent freeze in December and now January, potato farmers have been left frustrated as either water or ice has prevented them from getting potatoes out of the ground, and that could result in a loss of around €15 ($21.6) million to Irish potato farmers.

All that global warming is just devastating. Can't we get these carbon taxes implemented globally?

[Original_Intent]

For anyone near a Macys in SLC, maybe else where too I'm not sure, they are having a great case lot/foodstorage sale this week. Best prices I've seen on morning moos #10 can products, it is while supplies last though. 50lb bags of wheat for $12.00 as well.

I was just gonna post about this, I picked up another 200 lbs of red wheat, already packaged for long term storage = awesome! Also 25 lb. bags of sugar for under $10, I got a couple cases of chicken noodle soup too.

This was at the Macy's in Orem, so it is looking like probably all Macy's stores, at least in Utah.

[Canadian]

I wanna Macys!

For anyone near a Macys in SLC, maybe else where too I'm not sure, they are having a great case lot/foodstorage sale this week. Best prices I've seen on morning moos #10 can products, it is while supplies last though. 50lb bags of wheat for $12.00 as well.

I was just gonna post about this, I picked up another 200 lbs of red wheat, already packaged for long term storage = awesome! Also 25 lb. bags of sugar for under $10, I got a couple cases of chicken noodle soup too.

This was at the Macy's in Orem, so it is looking like probably all Macy's stores, at least in Utah.

[Stephen]

I wanna Macys!

For anyone near a Macys in SLC, maybe else where too I'm not sure, they are having a great case lot/foodstorage sale this week. Best prices I've seen on morning moos #10 can products, it is while supplies last though. 50lb bags of wheat for $12.00 as well.

I was just gonna post about this, I picked up another 200 lbs of red wheat, already packaged for long term storage = awesome! Also 25 lb. bags of sugar for under $10, I got a couple cases of chicken noodle soup too.

This was at the Macy's in Orem, so it is looking like probably all Macy's stores, at least in Utah.

I know! It kills me how easy it is to pick up some extra food out that way for really cheap!

[SwissMrs&Pitchfire]

That's half what we paid last time!