Dick Morris wrote;
http://americangrandjury.org/obliterating-a-generation
Richard Baehr wroteThanks to the leadership of President Obama, Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid, the Democratic Party is facing the biggest defeat in midterm elections in the past 110 years, perhaps surpassing the modern record of a 74-seat gain set in 1922. They will also lose control of the Senate.
Republicans are now leading in 54 Democratic House districts. In 19 more, the incumbent congressman is under 50 percent and his GOP challenger is within five points. That makes 73 seats where victory is within easy grasp for the Republican Party. The only reason the list is not longer is that there are 160 Democratic House districts that were considered so strongly blue that there is no recent polling available.
There is no Democratic message. President Obama is heralding education — an issue never mentioned on the campaign trail. Secretary of State Clinton is trying to restart the peace talks in the Middle East. Attorney General Holder is re-evaluating online national-security taps. And a hundred Democrats are scrambling about on their own trying to get reelected!
The Democratic campaigns they are waging are formulaic. They make no attempt to defend the administration, but run away from it where possible. They never mention the words stimulus, healthcare reform, card-check, GM takeover or cap-and-trade.
Instead, they are running almost exclusively negative ads. They base their campaigns on tax liens, failed marriages, DWIs and the like. Where there is a paucity of dirt, they resort to three prefab negatives: that their opponent favors a 23 percent national sales tax, that he wants to privatize Social Security and that he is shipping jobs overseas.
The Republican answers are simple. Republicans want a 23 percent value-added tax (VAT) only as part of eliminating the income tax. Some Republicans do back letting people under 55 divert one-third of their FICA taxes to approved investment alternatives, and most voters agree with them. But, on the campaign trail, simply saying — accurately — that “I oppose any change at all in Social Security for our seniors” takes care of it. And Republicans rebut the jobs overseas charge by citing how the incumbent backed cash-for-clunkers, where 40 percent of the cars bought were foreign; the TARP bailout, which paid billions to overseas banks; and the GM bailout, where two-thirds of the jobs were overseas.
http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/09/ ... ng_un.html
November 2nd could see some big, unpleasant surprises for incumbent Democrats in the House of Representatives. Strong GOP contenders, largely unnoticed by the national media and party bigwigs, are making bold plays for seats long regarded as belonging to the Democrats.
How big a wave will there be for the GOP in House races this year? The latest analysis by realclearpolitics.com rates only 139 of the 256 Democratic-held seats as safe, or 54% of the total now held by the Democrats. For the GOP, only sixteen of 179 are in play (9% at risk).
RCP divides seats into seven categories: Safe Democratic, Likely Democratic, Leans Democratic, Tossup, Leans Republican, Likely Republican, and Safe Republican. If the Likely Democratic and Likely Republican seats are excluded, then 99 Democratic held seats are in play, and only six Republican held seats. Nate Silver of the fivethirtyeight.com blog currently rates 39 Democrat-held seats as leaning or likely to turn over, with only two GOP seats in that category. There are another twenty Democrat-held seats he rates as an even chance for a takeover, with two GOP-held seats in that category. He rates another seventeen Democrat-held seats in the "takeover possible" category.
It is not hard with either listing of races to get to the 39 net seats the Republicans need to regain control of the House. But as some analysts, including Dick Morris, have pointed out, many races are never polled other than by the candidates themselves, since they are assumed to be safe for one party or the other. In a real wave election, even a few of the safe seats occasionally turn over on Election Day. In the RCP survey, the number of safe Democrat-held seats has been declining every week. That trend may continue.
