Church Growth Rate, Latest Statistics

[Silver]

Are you familiar with the work and writings of Rodney Stark, a non-member sociologist? A few decades ago he predicted an LDS growth rate and membership statistics that fellow sociologists and other religious groups disputed. Turned out he was wrong. The Church grew faster than he forecasted.

Lately though it seems we are getting the same approximate 300k increase in membership year after year.

Announced in General Conference yesterday:
CHURCH MEMBERSHIP
Total membership 15,882,417
New children of record 109,246
Converts baptized 240,131

MISSIONARIES
Full-time missionaries 70,946
Church-service missionaries 33,695

The Hastening brought many more missionaries into the field in a short amount of time, but the effort has not resulted in markedly increased convert baptisms. My testimony of divine revelation and inspired leadership has not been shaken. I think that it is simply getting harder and harder for people to be converted in an increasingly wicked world. Of course, and I'm guilty of this, most latter-day Saints need to do more to support the full-time missionaries.

[JK4Woods]

Silver,
I agree, more missionaries does not equal more converts.

Stuffing more missionary companionships into existing missions is not a recipe for doubling convert baptisims. In one area I worked in my mission, there had been missionaries there for 30 years... it was a small town. Every year every door got knocked once by the missionaries. When they put three companionships into the same location because of the surge, convert baptisims actually went down.

Opening new areas is where the harvest can be increased. Send 20,000 new missionaries to the Indian subcontinent or china would bring the harvest.
Happy Conference!
Not sure the work is really being hastened.

[Lizzy60]

Convert baptisms of 240,131 is the lowest number since 1995.


In the year 1995 there were 304,330 convert baptisms.
In the year 1996 there were 321,385 convert baptisms.
In the year 1997 there were 317,798 convert baptisms.
In the year 1998 there were 299,134 convert baptisms.
In the year 1999 there were 306,171 convert baptisms.
In the year 2000 there were 273,973 convert baptisms.
In the year 2001 there were 292,612 convert baptisms.
In the year 2002 there were 283,138 convert baptisms.
In the year 2003 there were 242,923 convert baptisms.
In the year 2004 there were 241,239 convert baptisms.
In the year 2005 there were 243,108 convert baptisms.
In the year 2006 there were 272,845 convert baptisms.
In the year 2007 there were 279,218 convert baptisms.
In the year 2008 there were 265,593 convert baptisms.
In the year 2009 there were 280,106 convert baptisms.
In the year 2010 there were 272,814 convert baptisms.
In the year 2011 there were 281,312 convert baptisms.
In the year 2012 there were 272,330 convert baptisms.
In the year 2013 there were 282,945 convert baptisms.
In the year 2014 there were 296,803 convert baptisms.
In the year 2015 there were 257'402 convert baptisms.

[Ezra]

As the world is taught the gospel of atheism taught in our pucblic schools. you will see less and less people joining the church.

[Silver]

I wonder if our statistics of baptizing our kindred dead makes up for the decrease in convert baptisms. More temples around the world. Temple work has been hastened, or increased.

[Ezra]

I wonder if our statistics of baptizing our kindred dead makes up for the decrease in convert baptisms. More temples around the world. Temple work has been hastened, or increased.

More population mean more dead. Naturally as populations increase there would be more work for the dead. Less people Joining the church means less people to do the work. Is that a hastening?

[Robin Hood]

I think many of us have become conditioned over the years to expect unremitting growth of the church in terms of numbers. For a long time this was true. The growth of the church seemed to be synonymous with it's truth.
I believe those days are clearly over. Growth is now much slower and I expect to see the time come when numbers will start to fall.
In terms of the active membership, I think that day has probably already arrived.

[Silver]

I wonder if our statistics of baptizing our kindred dead makes up for the decrease in convert baptisms. More temples around the world. Temple work has been hastened, or increased.

More population mean more dead. Naturally as populations increase there would be more work for the dead. Less people Joining the church means less people to do the work. Is that a hastening?

Less people may be joining than before but the growth is still net positive, isn't it? We may look back on these days and see the trend that these recent numbers are really telling us.

[h_p]

Convert baptisms of 240,131 is the lowest number since 1995.

It's actually at the lowest point since 1987, when we had 227,284 convert baptisms. That year, the total church membership was 6.4 million, and we had only 34,750 missionaries. The heyday of modern missionary work was from 1989-1990 (318,940, and 330,877 respectively). Which completely coincidentally, was when I served my mission. I thought missionary work was hard then, but I can see we had it amazingly good compared to now. No wonder missionaries are coming home in droves these days.

What's also interesting is what you can find by plugging the stats into a spreadsheet. I ran all the numbers from 1980 - 2016, and calculated what I'll call "attrition," for lack of a better term, for the loss of membership in the church from the previous year. I'm calculating it based on previous-year total membership plus child-of-record baptisms plus convert baptisms minus the current year total membership (PM + COR + CONV - CM). This isn't completely interesting since it also includes loss of membership due to death, but you can see some spikes. The attrition spiked into the 6-digit numbers (122,903) for the first time in 2014, which was the height of the Ordain Women movement, but has dropped since then to 101,559 last year. The gay policy change in 2015 kept the number up at 110,090 that year.

I can't figure out how to make a decent graph in Excel, and the numbers look a little screwy pre-1990 due to a lot of rounding and estimating the stats back then, or I'd post it.

Also interesting (and even more sad, imo) is the rate of Child of Record baptisms per capita (number of baptisms divided by total membership for the year). I only went back to 1980, but it's been in an almost perfectly steady decline since then. In 1980, it was 1.40%. In 2016: 0.69%. The only year it was lower was in 2001, at 0.61%. I'm guessing this would be due to declining number of children being born to LDS families, and an increasing inactivity rate, but I really don't know.

[Sunain]

I expect the growth rate of the church to continually decrease. Atheism and the general dislike for religion are dominating our society these days. It was good to hear that 5 new temples will be built though.

[Joel]

[Lizzy60]

Re: the Holland remarks above:

I heard my Stake President, with my very own ears, tell our ward that in a meeting with the Area Authority they were told that the Church has a goal to create more Stakes out of the existing ones by realigning wards with about 75% of the current number of active members, and reorganizing Stakes with only 6-8 units instead of the current average of 10. Last September my Stake and another Stake were formed into 3 Stakes, with a realignment of some of the wards to create a few new wards. With the same number of members, we now have 3 additional wards, a new Stake, and no new buildings were needed or planned. We share a Stake Center for conferences, and use a ward building for stake offices.

As a second witness, my son was in the other Stake, and was told the very same information by his Stake President. There was no mystery about how and why we were forming a new Stake, and dividing wards.

I am a thousand-plus miles from the Mormon Corridor. I can only imagine all the new wards and Stakes that can be created in more densely LDS-populated areas.

[jahallem]

I would be interested In knowing how much of the almost 16,000,000 members are in the US. And how much of the new converts in 2016 are Americans in this country.

[Silver]

Some good graphs and tables, if you like that sort of thing:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Churc ... ip_history

[Silver]

Regarding The Hastening, AKA the policy of sending 18-yo Elders and 19-yo Sisters into the mission field, has it had a net positive effect on the lives of those who answered the call? What can parents do to have their children better prepared for serving as missionaries?

[Silver]

More info on the religious commitment in America.

http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/amer ... landscape/

[Silver]

Our growth rate may be slowing, but apparently the same is true of other Christian churches.

https://thelightnc.hellobeautiful.com/8 ... n-the-u-s/

What Are The Fastest Growing Churches In The U.S. ?

Melissa Wade

The two fastest-growing church bodies in the United States and Canada, according to a newly published report, are ones whose beliefs are known to conflict with traditional Christian teaching.

Jehovah’s Witnesses and the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, regarded by many Christians as cults, reported the largest membership increases in a year, according to the National Council of Churches’ 2008 Yearbook of American & Canadian Churches.

Although Jehovah’s Witnesses currently rank 25th in size with over 1.06 million members, they reported a 2.25 percent increase in membership since the publication of the 2007 Yearbook. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints – also known as the Mormon church – grew 1.56 percent and is listed by the NCC as the fourth largest “church.”

Notably, however, both Jehovah’s Witnesses and the Mormon church are not accepted within many Christian circles as part of the larger Body of Christ over a number of controversial beliefs that the two religions hold. Identification of the former religion as Christian, among other controversies, is debated largely due to their rejection of the Trinity, which most Christians regard as a fundamental doctrine. Latter-day Saints, meanwhile, are often criticized for their belief in “divine” books of scripture, aside from the Bible, including the Book of Mormon, the Doctrine and Covenants, and the Pearl of Great Price.

Mormonism was formally listed under “cults and sects” by the Southern Baptist Convention – the largest Protestant denomination in the nation – but was more recently categorized among “newly developed religions” on the North American Mission Board apologetics page.

Other bodies in the newly published top 25 largest churches list that reported membership increases include The Catholic Church with a 0.87 percent increase; the Southern Baptist Convention with a 0.22 percent increase; the African Methodist Episcopal Zion Church with a 0.21 percent rise; and the Assemblies of God with a 0.19 percent growth.

The greatest losses in membership were reported by The Episcopal Church, which dropped 4.15 percent in members, and the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.), which decreased by 2.36 percent. Both denominations are currently wracked by theological differences and the issue of homosexuality.

American Baptist Churches in the U.S.A. and the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America also experienced large losses in membership, dropping 1.82 percent and 1.58 percent, respectively.

[h_p]

Here's a comparison of the number of new converts per new ward created each year (new converts / new wards) since 2001:
2001: 1927
2002: 5542.8
2003: 2805.4
2004: 671.1
2005: 683.6
2006: 793.1
2007: 924.4
2008: 1115.3
2009: 1004.3
2010: 1299.2
2011: 2499
2012: 1483.2
2013: 1253.4
2014: 788.9
2015: 662.9
2016: 861.9

The last 3 years seems to be trending toward smaller wards, if this ratio has any meaning at all, but I suspect this ratio has as much to do with distribution of new converts as it does a change in desired ward size.

[h_p]

Regarding The Hastening, AKA the policy of sending 18-yo Elders and 19-yo Sisters into the mission field, has it had a net positive effect on the lives of those who answered the call? What can parents do to have their children better prepared for serving as missionaries?

All I have are anecdotes, but my children are right in the mission-age group now, and this is a very sensitive topic in my family right now. My son said that half the missionaries who went home with him were going home early, including my son, who has since left the church because of his mission experience. My other son isn't wanting to go now, because of that.

Another missionary I'm close to has seen similar rates of early departure in his mission. He's got about 6 months left before he comes home, and he's the only person still out from his MTC group. They've all gone home early, and this elder very nearly quit out of discouragement last month.

Judging from the amount of attention the church seems to be giving to missionaries coming home early, I suspect this is pretty widespread. For my family personally, though, it's been an unmitigated disaster.

Also, the number of converts baptized per missionary has hit a 30-year low (3.38 converts per missionary last year). That may be an even longer-term low, but I've only grabbed stats since 1980. Just for reference, 1989 was the 30-year high-point, at 8.03 converts per. [edit: the published stats for full-time missionaries only goes back to 1976, so 3.38 is the lowest on public record.]

[Silver]

Regarding The Hastening, AKA the policy of sending 18-yo Elders and 19-yo Sisters into the mission field, has it had a net positive effect on the lives of those who answered the call? What can parents do to have their children better prepared for serving as missionaries?

All I have are anecdotes, but my children are right in the mission-age group now, and this is a very sensitive topic in my family right now. My son said that half the missionaries who went home with him were going home early, including my son, who has since left the church because of his mission experience. My other son isn't wanting to go now, because of that.

Another missionary I'm close to has seen similar rates of early departure in his mission. He's got about 6 months left before he comes home, and he's the only person still out from his MTC group. They've all gone home early, and this elder very nearly quit out of discouragement last month.

Judging from the amount of attention the church seems to be giving to missionaries coming home early, I suspect this is pretty widespread. For my family personally, though, it's been an unmitigated disaster.

Also, the number of converts baptized per missionary has hit a 30-year low (3.38 converts per missionary last year). That may be an even longer-term low, but I've only grabbed stats since 1980. Just for reference, 1989 was the 30-year high-point, at 8.03 converts per.

Blessings on you and your family. My heart hurts as I read about your son.

The general authorities are a wonderful group of men and women. They are trying to enlighten us and encourage us. I feel the Holy Ghost as they speak. However, they must also have, on occasion, feelings of depression and heartache as they watch so many leave their missions and leave the Church.

[WhereCanITurn4Peace]

All I have are anecdotes, but my children are right in the mission-age group now, and this is a very sensitive topic in my family right now. My son said that half the missionaries who went home with him were going home early, including my son, who has since left the church because of his mission experience. My other son isn't wanting to go now, because of that.

Another missionary I'm close to has seen similar rates of early departure in his mission. He's got about 6 months left before he comes home, and he's the only person still out from his MTC group. They've all gone home early, and this elder very nearly quit out of discouragement last month.

Judging from the amount of attention the church seems to be giving to missionaries coming home early, I suspect this is pretty widespread. For my family personally, though, it's been an unmitigated disaster.

So sorry to see the struggles your son and family are dealing with, h_p Although I suspect I know the answer...what is causing so many missionaries to come home early?

My husband came home early from his mission due to illness. The mission presidents' wife was really hard on my husband because he was trying to heal himself naturally with herbs instead of traditional medicine.

[Fiannan]

Think of the shrinkage in real terms in a generation as many couples have smaller families and many, many young women are completely unable to find a LDS man to marry (note: I said LDS male, active or not, worthy or not).

[brianj]

Less people may be joining than before but the growth is still net positive, isn't it? We may look back on these days and see the trend that these recent numbers are really telling us.

There isn't enough information here to really discuss growth. I see it like what the church calls "operating temples." The Idaho Falls, Jordan River, and Frankfurt temples are not currently in operation. They are closed and undergoing renovation. No ordinance work is taking place, and the fact that they are not in operation is bolstered by the knowledge that they will be rededicated before ordinance work can resume. Yet the church officially calls them operating temples.

Years ago a Bishop shocked me at a convert baptism by telling the new convert that if she never walks through those doors again she's still changed by being baptized. Why would you suggest not coming back? Guess what: she didn't come back. What matters to me is active church membership. I have occasionally come across people who would have difficulty finding a way to live further from the gospel than they do, who do not identify as LDS, but who are counted as church members by virtue of baptism. What I want to know is what the changes are in active church membership, as well as what more I can do to help guide lost sheep back to the fold or bring in new converts.

[brianj]

Regarding The Hastening, AKA the policy of sending 18-yo Elders and 19-yo Sisters into the mission field, has it had a net positive effect on the lives of those who answered the call? What can parents do to have their children better prepared for serving as missionaries?

When the policy was announced my first thought was: "Divorce rates are going to plummet!" Divorce rates are lower for returned missionaries, more young men were anticipated to go on missions because they don't have to wait around for a year, and more young women would also serve because they don't have as much chance to marry from 18 to 19 as they would have from 18 to 21.

Unfortunately for us, Satan is very clever. The techniques used by the adversary have effectively guided a lot of returned missionaries away from the church. I hope, and I believe, that returned missionaries who go inactive will be more likely to one day return, but I don't know of any statistics to validate this belief.

[Z2100]

Convert baptisms of 240,131 is the lowest number since 1995.


In the year 1995 there were 304,330 convert baptisms.
In the year 1996 there were 321,385 convert baptisms.
In the year 1997 there were 317,798 convert baptisms.
In the year 1998 there were 299,134 convert baptisms.
In the year 1999 there were 306,171 convert baptisms.
In the year 2000 there were 273,973 convert baptisms.
In the year 2001 there were 292,612 convert baptisms.
In the year 2002 there were 283,138 convert baptisms.
In the year 2003 there were 242,923 convert baptisms.
In the year 2004 there were 241,239 convert baptisms.
In the year 2005 there were 243,108 convert baptisms.
In the year 2006 there were 272,845 convert baptisms.
In the year 2007 there were 279,218 convert baptisms.
In the year 2008 there were 265,593 convert baptisms.
In the year 2009 there were 280,106 convert baptisms.
In the year 2010 there were 272,814 convert baptisms.
In the year 2011 there were 281,312 convert baptisms.
In the year 2012 there were 272,330 convert baptisms.
In the year 2013 there were 282,945 convert baptisms.
In the year 2014 there were 296,803 convert baptisms.
In the year 2015 there were 257'402 convert baptisms.

The end of the Times of the Gentiles is approaching faster than ever before. There will be a time where convert numbers will be so low, that the times will end abruptly and swiftly...