Train Wreck Coming

[iWriteStuff]

I've been hearing a lot about the upcoming "debt ceiling" deadline imposed on Congress for March 15. This is the date when Congress either has to raise the debt ceiling above $20 Trillion or the United States essentially runs out of the ability to pay its bills. Initially, the apocalyptic talk about the significance of this event seemed a bit overblown to me. Congress ALWAYS raises the debt ceiling. Always. And I would give 100% odds that they do so again.

So why is this time actually different? Well, let's look at the economic calendar. March 15 also happens to be the day when the Federal Open Market Committee (commonly referred to as "The Fed") announces whether they have decided to up the interest rate. Currently, the market is factoring in a 90% chance that the Fed raises interest rates. So here we have two events coinciding on the exact same day: we will raise the interest rates AND raise the debt ceiling at the same time.

This is akin to saying we can't afford our lifestyle so we have decided both to A) increase our ability to borrow and B) increase the amount we will pay in interest to borrow more. This is insanity squared.

If a train leaving Cleveland at 90 miles an hour is headed towards Boston, at what time will the train from Boston at 90 miles an hour collide with the train from Cleveland if they are both traveling on the same track? In this case, the answer is March 15.

Have a nice day!

[kittycat51]

I agree. I hope we are wrong. Silver I would love your comment/opinion on this?

[Col. Flagg]

March 15 will come and go like any other day with an increase in the debt ceiling for the hundredth time and a .25% increase in rates. Nothing will change. I'm beginning to think that they can kick the can down the road as long as they want or need to. It's unreal.

[Older/wiser?]

March 15 will come and go like any other day with an increase in the debt ceiling for the hundredth time and a .25% increase in rates. Nothing will change. I'm beginning to think that they can kick the can down the road as long as they want or need to. It's unreal.

I agree they can kick that can as far down the road as they want to or need to, the question I ask myself now is with Trump in office doesn't it seem like the perfect timing to let Him be the fall guy for this mess, to let it collapse under His watch.

[Mark]

March 15 will come and go like any other day with an increase in the debt ceiling for the hundredth time and a .25% increase in rates. Nothing will change. I'm beginning to think that they can kick the can down the road as long as they want or need to. It's unreal.

I told you that 10 Years ago son when you were predicting the sky was falling. I wish you would listen to your elders more often. You would be a much happier man.

[Silver]

March 15 will come and go like any other day with an increase in the debt ceiling for the hundredth time and a .25% increase in rates. Nothing will change. I'm beginning to think that they can kick the can down the road as long as they want or need to. It's unreal.

I agree they can kick that can as far down the road as they want to or need to, the question I ask myself now is with Trump in office doesn't it seem like the perfect timing to let Him be the fall guy for this mess, to let it collapse under His watch.

I certainly hope that your capitalization of the word Him in referring to Trump was a simple typo.

www.alt-market.com
Brandon Smith posts at that website. He has long been saying that the crash will come under Trump so the elitists can blame it on conservatives. I don't know if March 15th is the day it begins, but rising interest rates are not good for a debt-slave.

[Original_Intent]

I've been reading that the crash will have to be at soonest the latter half of 2017, and more likely 2018. If it happens in March, trump will not be blamed and it will be too obvious that the problems were "baked into the cake" before Trump took office.

Also, won't Yellen still be the Fed chair on March 15. Far better if they wait until the Fed chair that Trump approves (some people say nominate but the President doesn't nominate Fed chairs, he just OKs them - and has ALWAYS approved whoever the Fed puts forward).

So I'd say give it a year.

[davedan]

The only thing different this time around is that there is a lack of unity in the Republican Party thanks to Sen. Graham and McCain. We could see some trouble if TPTB wished to blame economic trouble on Trump. The FED has not been allowing financial problems because they didn't want to get the blame. Now with Trump in office, they may have a scapegoat.

Yes, TPTB could "kick the can down the road" as long as they wanted. But they can also "pull the plug" at any time.

[iWriteStuff]

March 15 will come and go like any other day with an increase in the debt ceiling for the hundredth time and a .25% increase in rates. Nothing will change. I'm beginning to think that they can kick the can down the road as long as they want or need to. It's unreal.

I agree they can kick that can as far down the road as they want to or need to, the question I ask myself now is with Trump in office doesn't it seem like the perfect timing to let Him be the fall guy for this mess, to let it collapse under His watch.

I certainly hope that your capitalization of the word Him in referring to Trump was a simple typo.

www.alt-market.com
Brandon Smith posts at that website. He has long been saying that the crash will come under Trump so the elitists can blame it on conservatives. I don't know if March 15th is the day it begins, but rising interest rates are not good for a debt-slave.

Isn't it funny how most of our economic theories are based at least partially on conspiracy theory? There seems to be an overwhelming bias that suggests whatever happens will be a referendum on Trump, hence latter 2017, early 2018, etc etc etc.

This symptom in itself should tell us something rather important: that the economy is disconnected from fundamentals, that debt "doesn't matter", that we as a society can continue to be "prosperous" as long as TPTB say so.... Essentially, that the whole thing is one big lie. Reminds me of a quote by former Fed Reserve Governor Henry Wallach:

"Our economy is a form of fraud perpetrated by everybody on everybody. It is a world in which nobody keeps his word. Even if you could adjust perfectly for it, it would be a very unpleasant world."

At what point does fraud matter?

[Mark]

March 15 will come and go like any other day with an increase in the debt ceiling for the hundredth time and a .25% increase in rates. Nothing will change. I'm beginning to think that they can kick the can down the road as long as they want or need to. It's unreal.

I agree they can kick that can as far down the road as they want to or need to, the question I ask myself now is with Trump in office doesn't it seem like the perfect timing to let Him be the fall guy for this mess, to let it collapse under His watch.

I certainly hope that your capitalization of the word Him in referring to Trump was a simple typo.

www.alt-market.com
Brandon Smith posts at that website. He has long been saying that the crash will come under Trump so the elitists can blame it on conservatives. I don't know if March 15th is the day it begins, but rising interest rates are not good for a debt-slave.

Isn't it funny how most of our economic theories are based at least partially on conspiracy theory? There seems to be an overwhelming bias that suggests whatever happens will be a referendum on Trump, hence latter 2017, early 2018, etc etc etc.

This symptom in itself should tell us something rather important: that the economy is disconnected from fundamentals, that debt "doesn't matter", that we as a society can continue to be "prosperous" as long as TPTB say so.... Essentially, that the whole thing is one big lie. Reminds me of a quote by former Fed Reserve Governor Henry Wallach:

"Our economy is a form of fraud perpetrated by everybody on everybody. It is a world in which nobody keeps his word. Even if you could adjust perfectly for it, it would be a very unpleasant world."

At what point does fraud matter?

Welcome to Babylon. Who runs its economy? Should anyone be at all surprised at how things are done? Fraud and deception ARE what matter in Satans wicked economic system. Zion is a dirty word. :ymdevil:

[Rose Garden]

So I'll have a whole month to get my taxes done after March 15th should the crash not actually occur?

[Silver]

March 15 will come and go like any other day with an increase in the debt ceiling for the hundredth time and a .25% increase in rates. Nothing will change. I'm beginning to think that they can kick the can down the road as long as they want or need to. It's unreal.

I agree they can kick that can as far down the road as they want to or need to, the question I ask myself now is with Trump in office doesn't it seem like the perfect timing to let Him be the fall guy for this mess, to let it collapse under His watch.

I certainly hope that your capitalization of the word Him in referring to Trump was a simple typo.

www.alt-market.com
Brandon Smith posts at that website. He has long been saying that the crash will come under Trump so the elitists can blame it on conservatives. I don't know if March 15th is the day it begins, but rising interest rates are not good for a debt-slave.

Isn't it funny how most of our economic theories are based at least partially on conspiracy theory? There seems to be an overwhelming bias that suggests whatever happens will be a referendum on Trump, hence latter 2017, early 2018, etc etc etc.

This symptom in itself should tell us something rather important: that the economy is disconnected from fundamentals, that debt "doesn't matter", that we as a society can continue to be "prosperous" as long as TPTB say so.... Essentially, that the whole thing is one big lie. Reminds me of a quote by former Fed Reserve Governor Henry Wallach:

"Our economy is a form of fraud perpetrated by everybody on everybody. It is a world in which nobody keeps his word. Even if you could adjust perfectly for it, it would be a very unpleasant world."

At what point does fraud matter?

Oh, fraud still matters alright. However, that's only fraud committed by you and me. Fraud at the highest levels is not investigated seriously and Jon Corzine is still walking around a free man.

[Col. Flagg]

March 15 will come and go like any other day with an increase in the debt ceiling for the hundredth time and a .25% increase in rates. Nothing will change. I'm beginning to think that they can kick the can down the road as long as they want or need to. It's unreal.

I told you that 10 Years ago son when you were predicting the sky was falling. I wish you would listen to your elders more often. You would be a much happier man.

Yes, you are a wise man Gramps, but 10 years ago put us at 2007... what happened in '08-'09? It was not just a recession... it was the implosion of the entire U.S. financial system that the 'Fed' has been papering over ever since and protecting its assets (and their cohorts) with near zero interest rates.

[gruden2.0]

I've been hearing a lot about the upcoming "debt ceiling" deadline imposed on Congress for March 15. This is the date when Congress either has to raise the debt ceiling above $20 Trillion or the United States essentially runs out of the ability to pay its bills. Initially, the apocalyptic talk about the significance of this event seemed a bit overblown to me. Congress ALWAYS raises the debt ceiling. Always. And I would give 100% odds that they do so again.

Normally they would just raise it, as they've done before. The reason why they might not this time is simply Trump. The Deep State hates Trump so there's a few possibilities of what may happen. One is that they may want to create a crisis that makes Trump looks really bad, and this would could easily work that way. There's also the possibility that Trump and Congress may not agree on the specifics of a bill that raises the debt ceiling.

Either way, nothing will happen on March 15, it's simply a day when it's estimated that we'll hit that ceiling, the government will still have a few hundred billion dollars to spend so the real fireworks will happen later if they can't come to terms. If they can't, there will be a government shutdown. Interestingly, the President has the discretionary power to allocate incoming funds from taxes, so Trump can still decide what to fund, just no more debt to fund everything else.

Apparently the Fed is scraping up $1 Trillion in quantitative easing funds to flood the economy when the next recession hits, which some think will start later this year.

[Jason]

Big...massively big....but very slow train...will be a spectacular crash...but I've given up on estimating timing...

Barometers are debt levels...and cost of debt (interest)...

Metrics are driven globally now and not national...9+ trillion in dollar denominated foreign debt...and its all just electronic digits...

I believe China is the giant fat canary in the coal mine...

My two cents...which is most likely worth what you paid for it...

[iWriteStuff]

Big...massively big....but very slow train...will be a spectacular crash...but I've given up on estimating timing...

Barometers are debt levels...and cost of debt (interest)...

Metrics are driven globally now and not national...9+ trillion in dollar denominated foreign debt...and its all just electronic digits...

I believe China is the giant fat canary in the coal mine...

My two cents...which is most likely worth what you paid for it...

Funny, Yellen mentioned China in her Q&A today. Seemed almost random, but she was referencing possible global events that could derail the economy. She went into depth about their slowing economy, enormous debt bubble, contracting housing market.... Maybe that was just a coincidence, or the first thing to pop into her mind. Didn't mention EU collapse, French presidential election, nothing... Just China.

I've given up predicting "when" as well. I just love the irony of congress agreeing to up their credit card limit while the bank is deciding to increase the interest rate. It's like the government is becoming a subprime client at full speed, Trump or no Trump.

[BeNotDeceived]

7 years of prosperity begins the first week of April 2017, followed by fulfillment of the Hancock Prophesy mid 2024.

It remains to be seen if it this period of prosperity also pays down the massive federal debt. :ymdevil:

.

[brianj]

7 years of prosperity begins the first week of April 2017, followed by fulfillment of the Hancock Prophesy mid 2024.

It remains to be seen if it this period of prosperity also pays down the massive federal debt. :ymdevil:

Last fall economists were saying that a recession was very likely regardless of who wins the Presidential election. Trump had better hope that recession comes soon so we can get past it and have a strong economy in four years, but even if he can postpone it for a year or two it will come.

You keep saying seven years of prosperity are coming next month. If I were a betting man I would bet against you.

[lundbaek]

The train wreck will happen on Track 1. We should be building Track 2.

[kittycat51]

Very interesting article. Seems to back up Train Wreck idea.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-0 ... great-fall

[Silver]

Big...massively big....but very slow train...will be a spectacular crash...but I've given up on estimating timing...

Barometers are debt levels...and cost of debt (interest)...

Metrics are driven globally now and not national...9+ trillion in dollar denominated foreign debt...and its all just electronic digits...

I believe China is the giant fat canary in the coal mine...

My two cents...which is most likely worth what you paid for it...

Funny, Yellen mentioned China in her Q&A today. Seemed almost random, but she was referencing possible global events that could derail the economy. She went into depth about their slowing economy, enormous debt bubble, contracting housing market.... Maybe that was just a coincidence, or the first thing to pop into her mind. Didn't mention EU collapse, French presidential election, nothing... Just China.

I've given up predicting "when" as well. I just love the irony of congress agreeing to up their credit card limit while the bank is deciding to increase the interest rate. It's like the government is becoming a subprime client at full speed, Trump or no Trump.

Funny, I read that as "speed bump" the first time. I'm not sure if I should make an analogy of how that's what he thinks of us peons or if that's how history will treat him and his presidency...maybe both.

That Yellen is given an opportunity to say anything other than pleading the 5th to avoid incrimination is witness to how tightly controlled we are. Bankers Rule! For the timing being, at least. We're debt slaves, plain and simple. Subprime auto loans are experiencing greater than 60-day delinquencies similar to 8-9 years ago. Uh oh.

[Silver]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-0 ... -right-now

Click on link to see the chart

In 2015, President Obama and Republican congressional leaders agreed to suspend the federal debt ceiling until March 15, 2017. After that date – less then two weeks from now – the Treasury will surpass its cumulative $20 trillion borrowing authority.

And while the stock market (and VIX) signal utter calm, signs of stress are very clear in America's money markets. Swap spreads are suggesting traders are getting nervous that any hiccup in efforts to remove the burden could trigger a shortage on short-term government securities.



And even more notably, investors are willing to pay more for bills maturing in four weeks instead of five.



That’s because they don’t want to be caught empty handed while the Treasury slows debt sales to push its cash balance lower as part of the 2015 pact to suspend the debt ceiling. The spread between the March 9 and March 16 bills may get a “a little more noticeable” as Treasury cuts issuance and provides a “clearer sense of how long bill supply is going to be lower than normal” going into the March 15 deadline, Jefferies economist Thomas Simons said in a phone interview.

So, with two weeks left until the debt ceiling suspension expires, Treasury's cash balance plummeted to $109 billion this week as of Thursday... making this the most important chart in the world right now...



Once it hits zero, as FiscalTimes notes, newly ensconced Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is expected to order “emergency measures” to effectively buy more time for the government to pay its creditors and cover revenue shortfalls to keep the government operating. The stakes couldn't be higher: Failure to raise the debt ceiling would do irreversible damage to the U.S. credit rating, trigger an uproar in U.S. and global markets, drive up the future cost of borrowing, postpone Social Security payments and tax returns, and force layoffs of non-essential government workers.

Deutsche Bank points out, there was a large withdrawal of cash last week as the IRS began sending out tax refunds. Despite a change of law last year which delays the refunds for early filers, the pace of refunds are similar to previous years. Between now and March 15, the Treasury can expect roughly another $40 billion of cash drawdown from refund activities. The Treasury cut its 4-week bill auction again this week to $18 billion, which is down from $35 billion last week and $45 billion two weeks ago. It also cut the 3-month and 6-month bill auctions by $4 billion each for next week. In the near term, the driver of bill supply is still the debt ceiling. But later in the year, the Fed’s balance sheet policy will have a major influence on supply outlook. If the debt ceiling is raised by late summer, a September Fed balance sheet unwind could potentially bring a flood of supply to the market and drastically cheapen the front end.

Not everyone is ignoring the potential risks ahead, David Stockman dropped this reality bomb last week:

“I think what people are missing is this date, March 15th 2017. That’s the day that this debt ceiling holiday that Obama and Boehner put together right before the last election in October of 2015. That holiday expires. The debt ceiling will freeze in at $20 trillion. It will then be law. It will be a hard stop. The Treasury will have roughly $200 billion in cash. We are burning cash at a $75 billion a month rate. By summer, they will be out of cash.

Then we will be in the mother of all debt ceiling crises. Everything will grind to a halt. I think we will have a government shutdown. There will not be Obama Care repeal and replace. There will be no tax cut. There will be no infrastructure stimulus. There will be just one giant fiscal bloodbath over a debt ceiling that has to be increased and no one wants to vote for.”
Stockman predicts very positive price moves for gold and silver as a result of the coming budget calamity.

[gclayjr]

Silver,

Republican Congress, Republican president. What do they have to gain from a governemtn shutdown? Why not just vote to increase the debt ceiling again?

Regards,

Geroge Clay

[Silver]

Silver,

Republican Congress, Republican president. What do they have to gain from a governemtn shutdown? Why not just vote to increase the debt ceiling again?

Regards,

Geroge Clay

George,
Your logic is impeccable and unassailable. I'm merely presenting alternative theories here. Just when I think the charade can't continue any longer, I find another decade has gone by and my timetable was incorrect, again.

[Mark]

Silver,

Republican Congress, Republican president. What do they have to gain from a governemtn shutdown? Why not just vote to increase the debt ceiling again?

Regards,

Geroge Clay

George,
Your logic is impeccable and unassailable. I'm merely presenting alternative theories here. Just when I think the charade can't continue any longer, I find another decade has gone by and my timetable was incorrect, again.

It's because you keep forgetting who runs the show in this economic model. Satan wants to suck as many as he can into the charade. He will keep it going until his miserable personage is cast out completely by a Zion people unable to do any more damage. It is the Lord who humbles us so that we will repent and turn to him and his system. Satan prefers that we go merrily along eating and drinking and putting all our trust in mammon. He does not want to disturb us from our slumber and turn us away from his system that provides us all theses enticing Babylonian spoils. Why would he? He isn't stupid... :ymdevil: