Train Wreck Coming

[Original_Intent]

There are two big events on March 15, and the fact that they coincide is even bigger.

Fed Meeting and the market has priced in a 100% certainty of a rate hike.
The debt ceiling expires, any new debt is going to cost even more to finance if the previous item occurs as expected.

[Spaced_Out]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-0 ... l-purposes

Is Janet Yellen Trying to Trigger a Recession For Political Purposes?

Phoenix Capital Research's picture
Mar 8, 2017 3:12 PM

Trump might want to put a call in to Janet Yellen.

The Fed is supposed to be a neutral, independent entity. However, that myth went out the window when Bernanke “gifted” QE 3 to Obama in 2012 to aid with the latter’s re-election bid.

The Yellen Fed seems to be even more committed to defining the Fed as nothing more than a leftist establishment mechanism. Back in October when it still looked like Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 Presidential election, Yellen commented that she was considering letting the economy run “hot” meaning allowing inflation to rise without implementing additional rate hikes.

One month later, Donald Trump won the Presidency and Yellen announced she wanted to hike rates in December with three more additional hikes in 2017.

Now, 3Q16 growth was supposedly 3.5%. If that had been true, then Yes, the Fed should consider hiking.

However, since that time GDP growth has collapsed. 4Q16 growth came in at a measly 1.9%. And 1Q17 GDP growth has collapsed from a forecast of 3% in early February to 1.2% today!

And Yellen is still pushing to hike rates.

So, back in October, when the economy was supposedly growing at an annualized rate of 3.5% Yellen wanted to let the economy run “hot.” And now that the economy is growing 2% rate (and soon to be sub-1% rate based on projections) she wants to hike rates multiple times.

Let that sink in for a moment.

It is very difficult to look at the above and not come to the conclusion that Janet Yellen is actively trying to thwart the Trump Presidency. For 8 years under Obama she signed off on maintaining interest rates at zero, permitting the debt to double.

Now that Trump is in office, Yellen wants to hike rates four times in 12 months. And she’s begun worrying about debt levels in her speeches.

Seriously?

The wise thing for Trump would be to ask for Yellen’s resignation. She has completely compromised any last credibility the Fed might have. And she’s now actively pushing to hurt the economy by hiking rates at a time when growth is already rapidly slowing.

There was an article just recently saying for every $4 of debt only $1 of GDP has been created. the velocity of money has crashed
it can only end badly.

[iWriteStuff]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-0 ... l-purposes

Is Janet Yellen Trying to Trigger a Recession For Political Purposes?

Phoenix Capital Research's picture
Mar 8, 2017 3:12 PM

Trump might want to put a call in to Janet Yellen.

The Fed is supposed to be a neutral, independent entity. However, that myth went out the window when Bernanke “gifted” QE 3 to Obama in 2012 to aid with the latter’s re-election bid.

The Yellen Fed seems to be even more committed to defining the Fed as nothing more than a leftist establishment mechanism. Back in October when it still looked like Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 Presidential election, Yellen commented that she was considering letting the economy run “hot” meaning allowing inflation to rise without implementing additional rate hikes.

One month later, Donald Trump won the Presidency and Yellen announced she wanted to hike rates in December with three more additional hikes in 2017.

Now, 3Q16 growth was supposedly 3.5%. If that had been true, then Yes, the Fed should consider hiking.

However, since that time GDP growth has collapsed. 4Q16 growth came in at a measly 1.9%. And 1Q17 GDP growth has collapsed from a forecast of 3% in early February to 1.2% today!

And Yellen is still pushing to hike rates.

So, back in October, when the economy was supposedly growing at an annualized rate of 3.5% Yellen wanted to let the economy run “hot.” And now that the economy is growing 2% rate (and soon to be sub-1% rate based on projections) she wants to hike rates multiple times.

Let that sink in for a moment.

It is very difficult to look at the above and not come to the conclusion that Janet Yellen is actively trying to thwart the Trump Presidency. For 8 years under Obama she signed off on maintaining interest rates at zero, permitting the debt to double.

Now that Trump is in office, Yellen wants to hike rates four times in 12 months. And she’s begun worrying about debt levels in her speeches.

Seriously?

The wise thing for Trump would be to ask for Yellen’s resignation. She has completely compromised any last credibility the Fed might have. And she’s now actively pushing to hurt the economy by hiking rates at a time when growth is already rapidly slowing.

There was an article just recently saying for every $4 of debt only $1 of GDP has been created. the velocity of money has crashed
it can only end badly.

I would say the real question is whether anyone feels more wealthy than they did back in 2008 when the Fed dropped rates to zero and bought every bad mortgage out there. When I talk to friends, everyone seems to be talking about how great the economy is doing under Trump. What they really mean to say is that the stock market is doing well, seeming to forget that the stock market is not the economy. Hard data keeps getting revised downward (GDP, earnings per share, growth expectations, etc), but the markets keep rising. Someone is wrong - either the hard data or the market.

I guess we'll find out eventually which one had it right.

[iWriteStuff]

Hello and Welcome to FOMC rate hike day! As a reminder, this is how a Central Bank works:

housingmarket.png (359.66 KiB) Viewed 945 times

[Silver]

Hello and Welcome to FOMC rate hike day! As a reminder, this is how a Central Bank works:

housingmarket.png

<Thank Button Engagement>

[Silver]

Atlanta Fed Slashes Q1 GDP Forecast To Just 0.9% Hours Before Fed Rate Hike

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-1 ... -rate-hike

"While it may not be the very definition of irony, we do find the fact that the Atlanta Fed has just cut its Q1 GDP forecast from 1.2% to 0.9%, a number which if confirmed would be the lowest quarterly print in year, just two hours before the Fed's rate hike quite humorous. As a reminder, the number was as high as 3.4% one and a half months ago.

From the Atlanta Fed:

Latest forecast: 0.9 percent — March 15, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.9 percent on March 15, down from 1.2 percent on March 8. The GDP growth forecast declined 0.3 percentage points on Friday when the February estimate of the model's latent dynamic factor used to forecast yet-to-be released GDP source data declined after the employment situation release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The forecast for first-quarter real consumer spending growth inched down from 1.6 percent to 1.5 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Consumer Price Index release from the BLS."

If you're a brave soul, and bothered to read this far, then I'll let you in on a little secret. The Federal Reserve Gadiantons hate you. They loathe you. Since you're a peon, a troglodyte, a nothing, like me, you can't do much, but you can do something. That something is to stop doing business with their wicked tools, the Federal Reserve Note. It's not real money. It's debt. Debt you owe, interest payable to them, to those who despise you. Be free.

[iWriteStuff]

Atlanta Fed Slashes Q1 GDP Forecast To Just 0.9% Hours Before Fed Rate Hike

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-1 ... -rate-hike

"While it may not be the very definition of irony, we do find the fact that the Atlanta Fed has just cut its Q1 GDP forecast from 1.2% to 0.9%, a number which if confirmed would be the lowest quarterly print in year, just two hours before the Fed's rate hike quite humorous. As a reminder, the number was as high as 3.4% one and a half months ago.

From the Atlanta Fed:

Latest forecast: 0.9 percent — March 15, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.9 percent on March 15, down from 1.2 percent on March 8. The GDP growth forecast declined 0.3 percentage points on Friday when the February estimate of the model's latent dynamic factor used to forecast yet-to-be released GDP source data declined after the employment situation release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The forecast for first-quarter real consumer spending growth inched down from 1.6 percent to 1.5 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Consumer Price Index release from the BLS."

If you're a brave soul, and bothered to read this far, then I'll let you in on a little secret. The Federal Reserve Gadiantons hate you. They loathe you. Since you're a peon, a troglodyte, a nothing, like me, you can't do much, but you can do something. That something is to stop doing business with their wicked tools, the Federal Reserve Note. It's not real money. It's debt. Debt you owe, interest payable to them, to those who despise you. Be free.

Gotta love it! Can't wait to see how this plays out.... The new interest rate goal is 3%. Imagine the debt payments on $20T!!! Why golly, that's only $600 billion per year... I can't wait till we wrack up even more debt.

[Silver]

Atlanta Fed Slashes Q1 GDP Forecast To Just 0.9% Hours Before Fed Rate Hike

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-1 ... -rate-hike

"While it may not be the very definition of irony, we do find the fact that the Atlanta Fed has just cut its Q1 GDP forecast from 1.2% to 0.9%, a number which if confirmed would be the lowest quarterly print in year, just two hours before the Fed's rate hike quite humorous. As a reminder, the number was as high as 3.4% one and a half months ago.

From the Atlanta Fed:

Latest forecast: 0.9 percent — March 15, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.9 percent on March 15, down from 1.2 percent on March 8. The GDP growth forecast declined 0.3 percentage points on Friday when the February estimate of the model's latent dynamic factor used to forecast yet-to-be released GDP source data declined after the employment situation release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The forecast for first-quarter real consumer spending growth inched down from 1.6 percent to 1.5 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Consumer Price Index release from the BLS."

If you're a brave soul, and bothered to read this far, then I'll let you in on a little secret. The Federal Reserve Gadiantons hate you. They loathe you. Since you're a peon, a troglodyte, a nothing, like me, you can't do much, but you can do something. That something is to stop doing business with their wicked tools, the Federal Reserve Note. It's not real money. It's debt. Debt you owe, interest payable to them, to those who despise you. Be free.

Gotta love it! Can't wait to see how this plays out.... The new interest rate goal is 3%. Imagine the debt payments on $20T!!! Why golly, that's only $600 billion per year... I can't wait till we wrack up even more debt.

Oh, don't go talking about facts and stuff. Trump is gonna save us. We're going to get tired of winning, remember?

[iWriteStuff]

Atlanta Fed Slashes Q1 GDP Forecast To Just 0.9% Hours Before Fed Rate Hike

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-1 ... -rate-hike

"While it may not be the very definition of irony, we do find the fact that the Atlanta Fed has just cut its Q1 GDP forecast from 1.2% to 0.9%, a number which if confirmed would be the lowest quarterly print in year, just two hours before the Fed's rate hike quite humorous. As a reminder, the number was as high as 3.4% one and a half months ago.

From the Atlanta Fed:

Latest forecast: 0.9 percent — March 15, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.9 percent on March 15, down from 1.2 percent on March 8. The GDP growth forecast declined 0.3 percentage points on Friday when the February estimate of the model's latent dynamic factor used to forecast yet-to-be released GDP source data declined after the employment situation release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The forecast for first-quarter real consumer spending growth inched down from 1.6 percent to 1.5 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Consumer Price Index release from the BLS."

If you're a brave soul, and bothered to read this far, then I'll let you in on a little secret. The Federal Reserve Gadiantons hate you. They loathe you. Since you're a peon, a troglodyte, a nothing, like me, you can't do much, but you can do something. That something is to stop doing business with their wicked tools, the Federal Reserve Note. It's not real money. It's debt. Debt you owe, interest payable to them, to those who despise you. Be free.

Gotta love it! Can't wait to see how this plays out.... The new interest rate goal is 3%. Imagine the debt payments on $20T!!! Why golly, that's only $600 billion per year... I can't wait till we wrack up even more debt.

Oh, don't go talking about facts and stuff. Trump is gonna save us. We're going to get tired of winning, remember?

Seriously, if the current Republican administration's performance is what "winning" looks like, I'd hate to see losing.

Next up, debt ceiling hike as the Treasury runs out of money! Grab your popcorn!

[Toto]

This is just another dog and pony show signifying nothing. Of course they’re going to raise the debt limit because it’s a way for them to do more damage, because wrecking everything and killing people is what they do best!

I had a dream they didn’t raise the debt limit and the government went out of business. And that was a good thing because we had to form a new government, like we had in the past, to get back to the future.

But then the dream ended and I woke up to the same old nightmare.

[Toto]

Edit to delete double post.

[sandman45]

reminds me of this..

trainwreck will be for those who owe money to the....Jews.... yep i said it..

and thats most nations including ours

[Mark]

This is a very interesting blog from a guy about the near future. Most media pundits haven't even addressed it's ramifications. We shall see in the next couple months what shakes out as a result of this debt crisis. It may get ugly fast.

"Well, of course they bugged Trump Tower. Why wouldn’t they? Trump’s big blunder du jour is that he tweeted “wiretapped,” like some hapless sap out of a 1950s I Was a Spy for the FBI movie. (I know people who still say “ice box,” too.) So he left himself — or rather poor Sean Spicer — open for a week of legalistic pettifogging by reporters acting as litigators for the Deep State’s intel corps.

Anyway, Wikileaks “Vault 7” document release earlier in the month made it clear that US intel has the ability to cover and confuse the tracks of any entity —including especially US intel itself — that ventures to penetrate any supposedly private or secure realm. And, by the way, that probably settles the matter of who “they” are. Whatever statutory restraints once existed against CIA spying on American citizens is long gone by the boards.

You might suppose, too, that the combined forces of Hillary and Obama, along with the still-entrenched Democratic establishment, would have tried through late 2016 to stop The Menace of Trump at all costs. Somebody had done them dirty in funneling the DNC and Podesta emails to Wikileaks, and it was imperative to fight back — especially with FBI director James Comey (a Republican, after all), going all rogue on Mrs. Clinton. Hence, the manufactured Russia-did-it story that has gotten more mileage than any political hallucination since Senator Joe McCarthy, at his height of influence, played the newspapers like a whole orchestra of flugelhorns.

It’s hard to see how Trump might ever established the truth of this matter. One of the strange features of these internecine wars is that the Department of Justice — as far as we know — isn’t deposing scores of operations people from the myriad agencies under the NSA umbrella to establish who’s been doing what. Anyway, there’s enough loose scuttlebutt around Washington that Trump might have a pretty good idea of who at the various agencies hates his guts, and is working against him, and one wonders why he doesn’t just fire a bunch of them. Perhaps that’s yet to come.

But it also looks a bit as though the Golden Golem of Re-Greatification has wandered into a political minefield so dense with booby traps that he’s already out of moves. First there’s the debt ceiling problem — which has so far received almost no attention from the Kardashianized collective news media. As David Stockman has pointed out on his blog, the US Treasury amassed a “war chest” of nearly half a trillion dollars last fall (via various book-keeping shenanigans) in expectation that President Hillary would need it to ride out some fiscal bad weather early in her reign.

Then, the truly inconceivable happened and Hillary won bigly in the wrong states and not bigly enough in the right ones, and, well…. Immediately, with Trump ascendant, the Treasury and its handmaidens at the Federal Reserve engineered a rapid burn-through of the war chest at a rate of about $90-billion a month since November, so that now there remains only about a month’s worth of walking-around money to run the US Government. With the old debt ceiling truce expired, congress would have to resolve to raise it, to legally enable the Treasury to resume its massive borrowing operations, or else the government won’t be able to pay invoices or issue pension checks or meet any obligations. It could even default on its “no risk” bonds.

Those dangers are theoretical for the moment, especially since there is always more accounting fraud to resort to when all else fails. But the longer a debt ceiling stalemate goes on in congress, the more trapped President Trump will be. The cherry on top is the Federal Reserve’s move to raise interest rates the same day the debt ceiling truce expired. That will thunder through the system, making many loans more expensive to repay, dampening the real estate markets (at a time when commercial real estate is already tanking), and draining all kinds of other mojo (however falsely engineered) from the Potemkin economy.

As if being trapped in a political minefield isn’t bad enough, the remaining safe patch Trump is stranded on turns out to be the LaBrea Tar Pit of health care reform. At this point, the crusade is doing worse than going nowhere — it’s getting sucked into the primordial bitumen where the mastodons and camelops sleep."

[Rose Garden]

This is just another dog and pony show signifying nothing. Of course they’re going to raise the debt limit because it’s a way for them to do more damage, because wrecking everything and killing people is what they do best!

I had a dream they didn’t raise the debt limit and the government went out of business. And that was a good thing because we had to form a new government, like we had in the past, to get back to the future.

But then the dream ended and I woke up to the same old nightmare.

Sorry, I have to ask, you don't actually dream about this stuff do you?